from when they loaded 1.0.3b till perhaps yesterday (or day before), A3 was looting like crazy. 3/4 loot being lvl60 (ilvl61+) and ilvl63 was dropping every 3rd elite/champ. (5 hours per page of stash all lvl63, that's 35 or something).
This is no longer the case. Noticed it yesterday, could of happened on saturaday, but level 51-55 items started to drop in A3, and less ilvl63. With the change in loot rate, mod quality also dropped off.
I know for a fact there had been changes since friday and saturday I didn't get any lvl51-55 in A3, after 15+ hours of running, 200+ packs of elites. None. And yesterday I had gotten countless 51-55 rares, blues in 6 hours of running, 3 full clears.
So we went farm A4 for a change, loot rate there seemed on par with A3 before this stealth nerf. 3/4 being lvl60... It's very easy to see the quality of mods on blue btw, it's not a random thing.
Since I haven't been doing a2, wondering if others had noticed any differences in loot rate over the weekend.
I actually think it's kinda funny seeing these threads over and over again. Some people just can't put their own experiences in the proper perspective.
Oh, and your attempt to defend your point makes no sense at all, and explains nothing. All it does is reinforce the fact that you had a lucky streak, and then it ended. No more, no less.
I've personally not noticed any change in my loot output in act 3 for ilvl 63 items at all over the past few days, only that it's much better than it was prior to them bumping up the drop rates.
You cannot go around claiming the drop rates have been 'stealth nerfed' with only 200 results int eh sample pool. You need thousands to get a reliable trend to smooth out the extremes of VERY good and bad results and thus find the average. Sure you may of noticed it dipping below your expected time vs ilvl63 return but also remember, with the buffed ilvl63 drop rates other drop rates got buffed (granted sub ilvl60 didn't from memory). I guess it's just bad luck for you.
If your serious about wanting to claim they stealth nerfed the drop rates please start making a data base and asking for results from the community so that we can get a large enough sample size to make pretty graphs and pie charts. Untill then all I can say is your having 'bad luck' and are experiencing the tail end of the drop rate curve, where before you where at the peak or something similar.
Asking people to aggregate data over a period of time is too much.
Kneejerk reactions are where it's at.
I just killed a champion and only got 1 rare and it was iLevel 57. Game is broke. DEMAND FIX FROM BLIZZ!
No, for example I was farming act 3 and should see < ilvl60 loot 35% of the time. However, the last couple days I have been getting about 60% < ilvl 60.
The thing about RNG is that over a 2 day sample of killing 45-60 elite packs an hour at several hours a day. You're already defying the odds even after 3 packs in a row if you're mostly getting < ilvl 60. But when you're talking about several hundred packs and the same trend continues. You can rightfully question it.
People can say rng is rng but they obviously don't understand probability. You don't need as big of a sample as you'd imagine when something that should be dropping less than 35% of the time is dropping more than 60% of the time.
Asking people to aggregate data over a period of time is too much.
Kneejerk reactions are where it's at.
I just killed a champion and only got 1 rare and it was iLevel 57. Game is broke. DEMAND FIX FROM BLIZZ!
No, for example I was farming act 3 and should see < ilvl60 loot 35% of the time. However, the last couple days I have been getting about 60% < ilvl 60.
The thing about RNG is that over a 2 day sample of killing 45-60 elite packs an hour at several hours a day. You're already defying the odds even after 3 packs in a row if you're mostly getting < ilvl 60. But when you're talking about several hundred packs and the same trend continues. You can rightfully question it.
People can say rng is rng but they obviously don't understand probability. You don't need as big of a sample as you'd imagine when something that should be dropping less than 35% of the time is dropping more than 60% of the time.
A few hours of runs should suffice.
Well I ran a bunch of Act 3 ONCE yesterday, and I found the best i63 2H I have ever gotten yet.
People can say rng is rng but they obviously don't understand probability. You don't need as big of a sample as you'd imagine when something that should be dropping less than 35% of the time is dropping more than 60% of the time.
A few hours of runs should suffice.
I think you just proved your own point here about people not understanding probability. You see, your own sample is not the only data in this equation. All sorts of other users are getting items and collecting data. Just because your personal sample is showing over 60% doesn't mean the system actually works that way.
The thing with probably is.. just because you have a 33% chance of something to happen doesn't mean it's GOING to happen once out of every 3 tries. it has a CHANCE of happening once in those 3 tries. Every single time you perform an action that calls the random number generator, that chance is still 1/3. The odds of it happening twice in a row are 'statistically' lower due to the laws of probability, however it can still happen.
For example, look at the odds to win the lottery in some places. The odds state that SOMEONE should logically win if enough people play. The problem is that I've seen lotteries go long periods of time before a winner finally occurs. Something that, according to the numbers, you'd think wouldn't happen.
This is why people keep asking for a larger sample size. Because there have been posts in this thread where people have been showing the direct opposite to the OP's position. In fact, last night I was pulling a high amount of 62-63 from act 3. Would this mean that the drop rates in act 3 got buffed? Just because I had a lucky night? (the items were still crap, but that's not the point)
Statistics and probability really don't work how many people think it will. If you get thousands of samples from not just yourself, but the community at large, then you might be on to something.
People can say rng is rng but they obviously don't understand probability. You don't need as big of a sample as you'd imagine when something that should be dropping less than 35% of the time is dropping more than 60% of the time.
A few hours of runs should suffice.
I think you just proved your own point here about people not understanding probability. You see, your own sample is not the only data in this equation. All sorts of other users are getting items and collecting data. Just because your personal sample is showing over 60% doesn't mean the system actually works that way.
The thing with probably is.. just because you have a 33% chance of something to happen doesn't mean it's GOING to happen once out of every 3 tries. it has a CHANCE of happening once in those 3 tries. Every single time you perform an action that calls the random number generator, that chance is still 1/3. The odds of it happening twice in a row are 'statistically' lower due to the laws of probability, however it can still happen.
For example, look at the odds to win the lottery in some places. The odds state that SOMEONE should logically win if enough people play. The problem is that I've seen lotteries go long periods of time before a winner finally occurs. Something that, according to the numbers, you'd think wouldn't happen.
This is why people keep asking for a larger sample size. Because there have been posts in this thread where people have been showing the direct opposite to the OP's position. In fact, last night I was pulling a high amount of 62-63 from act 3. Would this mean that the drop rates in act 3 got buffed? Just because I had a lucky night? (the items were still crap, but that's not the point)
Statistics and probability really don't work how many people think it will. If you get thousands of samples from not just yourself, but the community at large, then you might be on to something.
I understand this completely, however I'd have better odds of winning the lottery than I would to average 60% < 60 loot over several hundred kills which results in a minimum of 3 items per drop.
The fact that others notice this in my "circle" of people while some do not still leaves questions but it's safe to say something was changed or a couple of us are the luckiest (no different than unlucky) people in the world.
I just want to state this clearly we are clearing 45-60 packs an hour + bosses for 8-12 hours a day. I'd say that's a pretty good sample size.
The laws of probability are all that matter when trying to graph something like this out.
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This is no longer the case. Noticed it yesterday, could of happened on saturaday, but level 51-55 items started to drop in A3, and less ilvl63. With the change in loot rate, mod quality also dropped off.
I know for a fact there had been changes since friday and saturday I didn't get any lvl51-55 in A3, after 15+ hours of running, 200+ packs of elites. None. And yesterday I had gotten countless 51-55 rares, blues in 6 hours of running, 3 full clears.
So we went farm A4 for a change, loot rate there seemed on par with A3 before this stealth nerf. 3/4 being lvl60... It's very easy to see the quality of mods on blue btw, it's not a random thing.
Since I haven't been doing a2, wondering if others had noticed any differences in loot rate over the weekend.
Use your brain
Quoted for please delete this thread.
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Basic math....
Oh, and your attempt to defend your point makes no sense at all, and explains nothing. All it does is reinforce the fact that you had a lucky streak, and then it ended. No more, no less.
RNG is RNG.
I've personally not noticed any change in my loot output in act 3 for ilvl 63 items at all over the past few days, only that it's much better than it was prior to them bumping up the drop rates.
You cannot go around claiming the drop rates have been 'stealth nerfed' with only 200 results int eh sample pool. You need thousands to get a reliable trend to smooth out the extremes of VERY good and bad results and thus find the average. Sure you may of noticed it dipping below your expected time vs ilvl63 return but also remember, with the buffed ilvl63 drop rates other drop rates got buffed (granted sub ilvl60 didn't from memory). I guess it's just bad luck for you.
If your serious about wanting to claim they stealth nerfed the drop rates please start making a data base and asking for results from the community so that we can get a large enough sample size to make pretty graphs and pie charts. Untill then all I can say is your having 'bad luck' and are experiencing the tail end of the drop rate curve, where before you where at the peak or something similar.
Please link me your results or post them all here for us to see. Until then I don't believe you and so will most of the community.
Seriously.
I saw plenty of 51-55 items falling from all sorts of mobs in Act 1-4 of Inferno prior to the patch and have seen them since.
Indeed...
Kneejerk reactions are where it's at.
I just killed a champion and only got 1 rare and it was iLevel 57. Game is broke. DEMAND FIX FROM BLIZZ!
No, for example I was farming act 3 and should see < ilvl60 loot 35% of the time. However, the last couple days I have been getting about 60% < ilvl 60.
The thing about RNG is that over a 2 day sample of killing 45-60 elite packs an hour at several hours a day. You're already defying the odds even after 3 packs in a row if you're mostly getting < ilvl 60. But when you're talking about several hundred packs and the same trend continues. You can rightfully question it.
People can say rng is rng but they obviously don't understand probability. You don't need as big of a sample as you'd imagine when something that should be dropping less than 35% of the time is dropping more than 60% of the time.
A few hours of runs should suffice.
Well I ran a bunch of Act 3 ONCE yesterday, and I found the best i63 2H I have ever gotten yet.
Drop rates got buffed according to your logic.
I think you just proved your own point here about people not understanding probability. You see, your own sample is not the only data in this equation. All sorts of other users are getting items and collecting data. Just because your personal sample is showing over 60% doesn't mean the system actually works that way.
The thing with probably is.. just because you have a 33% chance of something to happen doesn't mean it's GOING to happen once out of every 3 tries. it has a CHANCE of happening once in those 3 tries. Every single time you perform an action that calls the random number generator, that chance is still 1/3. The odds of it happening twice in a row are 'statistically' lower due to the laws of probability, however it can still happen.
For example, look at the odds to win the lottery in some places. The odds state that SOMEONE should logically win if enough people play. The problem is that I've seen lotteries go long periods of time before a winner finally occurs. Something that, according to the numbers, you'd think wouldn't happen.
This is why people keep asking for a larger sample size. Because there have been posts in this thread where people have been showing the direct opposite to the OP's position. In fact, last night I was pulling a high amount of 62-63 from act 3. Would this mean that the drop rates in act 3 got buffed? Just because I had a lucky night? (the items were still crap, but that's not the point)
Statistics and probability really don't work how many people think it will. If you get thousands of samples from not just yourself, but the community at large, then you might be on to something.
I understand this completely, however I'd have better odds of winning the lottery than I would to average 60% < 60 loot over several hundred kills which results in a minimum of 3 items per drop.
The fact that others notice this in my "circle" of people while some do not still leaves questions but it's safe to say something was changed or a couple of us are the luckiest (no different than unlucky) people in the world.
I just want to state this clearly we are clearing 45-60 packs an hour + bosses for 8-12 hours a day. I'd say that's a pretty good sample size.
The laws of probability are all that matter when trying to graph something like this out.