I actually agree with the OP. I'm expecting a mid-late Q1 2012 or even very early Q2 2012 release. I think I know Blizzard all too well. I know it sounds absurd and unfounded, but, it's just what I feel. The way I've been seeing Diablo III trending and how hurried they are, it makes me realize a big screw up could occur and it would take time to fix. I hope I'm wrong, but, I 95% doubt a 2011 release. Maybe January or February.
/commenceflamingonme
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What? So he says beta will come out before the end of September, proceeds to say how "simple" this beta will be (pretty much about finding bugs and server stability) which just shows that it won't last for too long, and it all means D3 isn't coming in 2011?
Granted, english isn't my first language, but damn, that's not what I understood. If anything, I understood that the beta will be quick and with 1-2 months of beta testing plus 1-2 months to release (if we can compare to SC2) we're looking at an almost certain 2011 release date.
Wouldn't they want to take advantage of the improved holiday sales by the year's end?
a big screw up could occur and it would take time to fix. I hope I'm wrong, but, I 95% doubt a 2011 release. Maybe January or February.
/commenceflamingonme
You're right, and a "big screw up" did occur in terms of the RMAH, which MM specifically stated had almost no work done as of the CC last week.
A dozen currencies, a dozen major countries on possibly four continents, literally hundreds of laws and tax policies - getting a system like that smooth and secure could take a while. Dispensing cash for sold items involves much, much more security and liability than just taking a credit card number for a game.
Yeah I wouldn't expect to see a RMAH in the beta, and if they're aiming for December release still then it's possible they can get it running by then. They won't be handling the money directly themselves, we heard in the press event transcripts that they're working out a deal with a third part site, sort of like paypal, maybe even paypal. So the site would have all that ground work done.
I actually agree with the OP. I'm expecting a mid-late Q1 2012 or even very early Q2 2012 release. I think I know Blizzard all too well. I know it sounds absurd and unfounded, but, it's just what I feel. The way I've been seeing Diablo III trending and how hurried they are, it makes me realize a big screw up could occur and it would take time to fix. I hope I'm wrong, but, I 95% doubt a 2011 release. Maybe January or February.
/commenceflamingonme
Same here. But hell, I'll wait until 2013 if I can just get to play sometime. (Scratch that, I'd probably die waiting. :P)
The Bashiok's topic has nothing to do with anything about delays. It will be a TRUE beta because THAT's what a Beta is, a test phase to test the software on the client's hardware. The SC2 Beta wasn't a TRUE beta because it aimed at balancing, what is not the case here.
The Beta is announced to be very short, just to make sure the game will run in most hardware and collect crash reports from the ones it didn't work so well, so, the game is pretty much finished, just dealing with hardware bugs. Then it's pretty much "everyone, play about 2 hours, fill the crash report and the beta is finished!" and they will also do some reseting to test the servers as well. That's very good news to think about a 2011 release.
If there are major bugs that require a greater code rewrite, then the game will delay, but that's not the reason why Blizzard usually delays its games. If the balancing is done we can get our hopes high on early releases.
I don't know if you want to call this news or not, but I just read this quote by Bashiok
We're still looking good for third quarter, which is before the end of September.
We're preparing ourselves for an extremely limited, and extremely rough beta. The number of people let in will simply be dependent on concurrency of active players (we want to keep it full), and rough because we expect many issues as we're trying out a lot of new hardware and systems all at the same time. We'll get it ironed out before release of course, but while most of our other game tests have been of seemingly releasable products, we're preparing for this one to be a true beta. - Bashiok
First Rob Pardo said that its going to be TOUGH to get it out this year, but that they are still trying..
Now this from Bashiok, To be honest I haven't thought it would come out in 2011 for a while now.. But now I know 100% that it won't be.
At first they were saying we are still on track blah blah.. now its they are starting to say eeeeh its going to be hard.. and we expect a lot of problems in the beta..
TL:DR - D3 wont be coming out this year more than likely.
None of what Bashiok or Rob Pardo said definitively rules out a 2011 release, they ALWAYS expected Diablo 3 beta to require ironing out of issues, you're assuming by issues he means very serious issue's that will obviously push the release back, but for all we know he just means issues that were always expected and should be ironed out still in time for 2011, It still does, and always will fall back on the "WILL IT HAVE SERIOUS ISSUES THAT WILL SET-BACK RELEASE" question which none of us know until beta comes around
So thank's for bringing nothing new to the table other then wait until beta.
Yes, it basically falls down to how minor/serious the issue's that arise regarding the new software/hardware they will be running for the Diablo 3 Beta
I am a QA Analyst but I test web applications not games. Deadlines ALWAYS change and sprint plans get pushed back, could be because certain features aren't working or need to be reworked, removed, added, etc. Beta can go smoothly with very few defects or game-changing issue can be found - you never know until your clients get their hands on your product.
While I am holding my breathe for a Q4 release of this year, I am not getting my hopes set because I know how this process goes. The company I work for, if a client is really pushing for something to be done, we have to work our tails off to get it done ASAP. Blizzard likes to take their time to get an absolute polished product out the door, so a delay is almost certainly plausible.
Lets hope a 2 month beta-phase has limited defects and Blizzard is happy with the finished product. I'd rather have a bug-free game than one ridden with them.
Even though this is a whole NEW server infastructure Blizzard are not newbs im sure they have the know how to create new hardware without there being hugely drastic problems.
I agree, their entire team is repeating one word over and over again: Christmas.
They better get that rune system working. No wonder Jay Wilson looked so partied out at the media event.. I'm betting that guy isn't getting his full 8 hours of beauty sleep.
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"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
-Thomas Jefferson
There is an old Russian Proverb "Hope is the last to die" in Russian (Надежда(nadezhda) умирает(oomirayet) последней(poslyedni)) I think in terms of the beta this works well! So I am going to keep on hoping the beta comes sooner than later.
You are all so desperate... and Blizzard saying they are TRYING for 2011, is making you all feel like it HAS TO BE THEN..
It doesn't matter when they release it, nor do they care. They won't lose an impact worthy amount of sales by releasing it in 2012..
And if you think Blizzard is going to PUSH to release their game just because December/Christmas is nearing.. you clearly don't know Blizzard. Do not worry though, I will be here to say I told you so when Blizzard gives us a release date, probably at Blizzcon.
-Edit: Remember how Starcraft 2 was suppose to come out at the end of 2009. But it DIDN'T it came out mid 2010. So everyone saying Blizzard would NEVER BE SO STUPID TO RELEASE IT AFTER DECEMBER... please grow up.. As they say, history repeats itself.
Rush or no rush. Just because they tell us "when it's ready" doesn't mean they work without any internal schedule or deadlines.
And we believe their internal schedule is saying just before christmas.
I don't think you "get" blizzard. They literally don't care when they release, at all, and they never have. Dates circulated anywhere, even "internal" documents are just a something they projected at one point in time.
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/commenceflamingonme
www.nerdyblog.com - Great website and great Diablo III streams and Skype chat!
Granted, english isn't my first language, but damn, that's not what I understood. If anything, I understood that the beta will be quick and with 1-2 months of beta testing plus 1-2 months to release (if we can compare to SC2) we're looking at an almost certain 2011 release date.
Wouldn't they want to take advantage of the improved holiday sales by the year's end?
You're right, and a "big screw up" did occur in terms of the RMAH, which MM specifically stated had almost no work done as of the CC last week.
A dozen currencies, a dozen major countries on possibly four continents, literally hundreds of laws and tax policies - getting a system like that smooth and secure could take a while. Dispensing cash for sold items involves much, much more security and liability than just taking a credit card number for a game.
Same here. But hell, I'll wait until 2013 if I can just get to play sometime. (Scratch that, I'd probably die waiting. :P)
The Bashiok's topic has nothing to do with anything about delays. It will be a TRUE beta because THAT's what a Beta is, a test phase to test the software on the client's hardware. The SC2 Beta wasn't a TRUE beta because it aimed at balancing, what is not the case here.
The Beta is announced to be very short, just to make sure the game will run in most hardware and collect crash reports from the ones it didn't work so well, so, the game is pretty much finished, just dealing with hardware bugs. Then it's pretty much "everyone, play about 2 hours, fill the crash report and the beta is finished!" and they will also do some reseting to test the servers as well. That's very good news to think about a 2011 release.
If there are major bugs that require a greater code rewrite, then the game will delay, but that's not the reason why Blizzard usually delays its games. If the balancing is done we can get our hopes high on early releases.
None of what Bashiok or Rob Pardo said definitively rules out a 2011 release, they ALWAYS expected Diablo 3 beta to require ironing out of issues, you're assuming by issues he means very serious issue's that will obviously push the release back, but for all we know he just means issues that were always expected and should be ironed out still in time for 2011, It still does, and always will fall back on the "WILL IT HAVE SERIOUS ISSUES THAT WILL SET-BACK RELEASE" question which none of us know until beta comes around
So thank's for bringing nothing new to the table other then wait until beta.
I can't foresee that taking more then a couple months with the amount of people slamming the servers from day one...
While I am holding my breathe for a Q4 release of this year, I am not getting my hopes set because I know how this process goes. The company I work for, if a client is really pushing for something to be done, we have to work our tails off to get it done ASAP. Blizzard likes to take their time to get an absolute polished product out the door, so a delay is almost certainly plausible.
Lets hope a 2 month beta-phase has limited defects and Blizzard is happy with the finished product. I'd rather have a bug-free game than one ridden with them.
They better get that rune system working. No wonder Jay Wilson looked so partied out at the media event.. I'm betting that guy isn't getting his full 8 hours of beauty sleep.
-Thomas Jefferson
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Are you guys new to blizzard titles? They'll release when they're happy with it and they're not going to rush for a holiday sale date.
It doesn't matter when they release it, nor do they care. They won't lose an impact worthy amount of sales by releasing it in 2012..
And if you think Blizzard is going to PUSH to release their game just because December/Christmas is nearing.. you clearly don't know Blizzard. Do not worry though, I will be here to say I told you so when Blizzard gives us a release date, probably at Blizzcon.
-Edit: Remember how Starcraft 2 was suppose to come out at the end of 2009. But it DIDN'T it came out mid 2010. So everyone saying Blizzard would NEVER BE SO STUPID TO RELEASE IT AFTER DECEMBER... please grow up.. As they say, history repeats itself.
I don't think you "get" blizzard. They literally don't care when they release, at all, and they never have. Dates circulated anywhere, even "internal" documents are just a something they projected at one point in time.