With probabilities you just multiply them.
For instance, a single die has a 1/6th (1 in 6) chance of coming up a 3 when you roll it. To figure out the probability of rolling two threes, just multiply 1/6th by 1/6th which is 1/36.
With a 35% chance of resurrecting, if all dogs die at the same time, the calculation for getting four resurrections in a row is .35 multiplied by itself 4 times.
.35 = 7/20
(7/20)^4 = 2401/160000 = .015 = 1.5%
For none resurrecting, we're interested in the chances of a resurrection NOT happening. The chances of that are 1 - .35 or .65 (65%).
With probabilities you just multiply them.
For instance, a single die has a 1/6th (1 in 6) chance of coming up a 3 when you roll it. To figure out the probability of rolling two threes, just multiply 1/6th by 1/6th which is 1/36.
With a 35% chance of resurrecting, if all dogs die at the same time, the calculation for getting four resurrections in a row is .35 multiplied by itself 4 times.
.35 = 7/20
(7/20)^4 = 2401/160000 = .015 = 1.5%
For none resurrecting, we're interested in the chances of a resurrection NOT happening. The chances of that are 1 - .35 or .65 (65%).
The in betweens are a combination of the two methods and I'll let you figure those out.
I don't believe that's how it works. Because there are multiple instances in which only one dog can be resurrected. Also, if you add up all the percentages from your calculations they don't = 100%.
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My place really was here. I was too foolish and stubborn to notice. But, what I truly hoped for then was here. Why do I always realize it When I've already lost it.
So there's a 29.17% chance of the world exploding?
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My place really was here. I was too foolish and stubborn to notice. But, what I truly hoped for then was here. Why do I always realize it When I've already lost it.
I don't believe that's how it works. Because there are multiple instances in which only one dog can be resurrected.
Well, that is how it works. It's a 35% chance no matter what for every proc, but the probability of one succeeding after the other is just like the result above. Rolling a die is one seperate instance followed by another seperate instance. Rolling 4 dice at the same time however, that's another matter.
35% chance for 1 Dog, 12.25% chance for 2 Dogs, 4.28% chance for 3 Dogs and a 1.5% chance for 4 Dogs.
The problem with it is that it doesn't provide the chance for each...
Ex: The chance for (Edit: "atleast") atleast one dog out of all four rolls happening is MUCH more likely than 35%.
I'm not a math wiz either so I can't exactly clarify much more :P.
Edit: It seems like hes looking for a total chance for all four possibilities out of 100%
The probabilities are as followed, I calculated em with a function (the binompdf function, tho i forgot how to do it without the function :P)
Probability of 0 dogs resurrecting: 17.85%
Probability of 1 dog resurrecting : 38.45%
Probability of 2 dogs resurrecting: 31.05%
Probability of 3 dogs resurrecting: 11.45%
Probability of 4 dogs resurrecting: 1.50%
Summing up to a total of 100.3% (cos of rounding up/down, but its accurate)
Percent chance of occuring = (binomial coeffecient) * PkQ(n-k)
where P is the percent chance of the event occuring, in this case 35% or 0.35, Q is the chance of the event not occuring, .65 in this case, N is the maximum number of occurences in a case, 4 here, and k is the number of events desired, 0,1,2,3, or 4 for this case. The coeffecient is N combinations taken K at a time
My original post is accurate, but I was hoping cantwaitford3 would boggle his noodle on the others.
Keep in mind that the probability of a dog not respawning is 1 - .35 or .65; so we multiply as always.
(.35)*(.65)^3 = .096 = 9.6%
This answer is correct, but not complete. There are FOUR different ways only one dog could respawn and just like calcualting probability of throwing two dice (or four in this case) we need to sum up the probabilties of each permutation.
Since our 'dice rolls' are identical each time we can just multiply the above result by 4 to get the correct anwser of 38.4%
The reason I didn't need to do this for 'all dogs' or 'no dogs' is becauase there is only one permutation for those cases.
Isn't math great?
Edit: I think this is easier to do mentally than using binomial formulas; but this is the basic machinery behind those functions.
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what are the odds of
all 4 resurrecting
all 3 resurrecting
only 2 resurrecting
only 1 resurrecting
and none.
math is not my strong point, but i know there are alot of people here that love theory crafting and calculating, can you help me out?
thanks.
For instance, a single die has a 1/6th (1 in 6) chance of coming up a 3 when you roll it. To figure out the probability of rolling two threes, just multiply 1/6th by 1/6th which is 1/36.
With a 35% chance of resurrecting, if all dogs die at the same time, the calculation for getting four resurrections in a row is .35 multiplied by itself 4 times.
For none resurrecting, we're interested in the chances of a resurrection NOT happening. The chances of that are 1 - .35 or .65 (65%).
The in betweens are a combination of the two methods and I'll let you figure those out.
I don't believe that's how it works. Because there are multiple instances in which only one dog can be resurrected. Also, if you add up all the percentages from your calculations they don't = 100%.
So there's a 29.17% chance of the world exploding?
The problem with it is that it doesn't provide the chance for each...
Ex: The chance for (Edit: "atleast") atleast one dog out of all four rolls happening is MUCH more likely than 35%.
I'm not a math wiz either so I can't exactly clarify much more :P.
Edit: It seems like hes looking for a total chance for all four possibilities out of 100%
1.5% chance of 4 doggs spanning implies
100%-1.5% chance of not 4 dogs spawning i.e. 98.5%
Percent chance of occuring = (binomial coeffecient) * Pk Q(n-k)
where P is the percent chance of the event occuring, in this case 35% or 0.35, Q is the chance of the event not occuring, .65 in this case, N is the maximum number of occurences in a case, 4 here, and k is the number of events desired, 0,1,2,3, or 4 for this case. The coeffecient is N combinations taken K at a time
fun to do by hand from time to time
Keep in mind that the probability of a dog not respawning is 1 - .35 or .65; so we multiply as always.
This answer is correct, but not complete. There are FOUR different ways only one dog could respawn and just like calcualting probability of throwing two dice (or four in this case) we need to sum up the probabilties of each permutation.
Since our 'dice rolls' are identical each time we can just multiply the above result by 4 to get the correct anwser of 38.4%
The reason I didn't need to do this for 'all dogs' or 'no dogs' is becauase there is only one permutation for those cases.
Isn't math great?
Edit: I think this is easier to do mentally than using binomial formulas; but this is the basic machinery behind those functions.