Well, most of the estimations are based on observations. I base my predictions on the artwork dates I've seen, the interviews with d3 team members and some stuff I read on the internet (also from some unknown sources, top secret blizz docs, i'll stop here/ people might ask too many questions). We can't get concrete fact at this time... so this is why this post is "ridiculous". Hmmm, well.... maybe we can get facts. Okay hear me in on this, if you take 2 and multiply it by 1000, the fact is that this is gonna make 2000 right? Now if you take this 2000 and add 11 to it, it is an undisputable fact that this sum is gonna make 2011. WOA, this 2011 might be the result of facts we needed to prove that D3 will come out 2 years from now :P! Now it will be in Q2 2011. Why Q2, well because I think that Quake 2 is by far the best quake out there and this my friends is a FACT
Well, most of the estimations are based on observations. I base my predictions on the artwork dates I've seen, the interviews with d3 team members and some stuff I read on the internet (also from some unknown sources, top secret blizz docs, i'll stop here/ people might ask too many questions). We can't get concrete fact at this time... so this is why this post is "ridiculous". Hmmm, well.... maybe we can get facts. Okay hear me in on this, if you take 2 and multiply it by 1000, the fact is that this is gonna make 2000 right? Now if you take this 2000 and add 11 to it, it is an undisputable fact that this sum is gonna make 2011. WOA, this 2011 my be the result of facts we needed to prove that D3 will come out 2 years from now :P! Now it will be in Q2 2011. Why Q2, well because I think that Quake 2 is by far the best quake out there and this my friends is a FACT
You know, compared to most people's posts on this topic, that doesn't sound very ridiculous at all!
666 is just a number and we just happen to exploit and make a movie of its reference to the number of the beast, with no real infomation about it. y2k is same thing, agian pretty perfect numbers. But Dec. 21, 2012. There REALLY is a rare galactic alignment, numberous of books, legend behind this date. Mayan said their calendar ends at 2012. It its unknown to us if its refering to the doomsday or just the calendar book. Some mention there is a tranformation of a new age (positive or negative). There is also a big blockbuster movie coming out soon. See for yourself. And have fun.
This really rare galactic alignment your talking about is the earth sun and center of the galaxy aligning....... well guess what happens EVERY year on December 21. The mayan calender was printed on stone, it stopped at the end of one of their cycles that was based on farming. There were many ends to the cycles..... its much more likely they didnt need to continue 1000 of years into the future.... I have a 2009 calender in my room and the cycle of that calendar ends on December 31. It would be pointless to have it go more than a year, same thing. Also, 2012 the movie.... I hope no one takes that serious because at the end of the movie, aliens come and are the ones responsible.... hahaha 2012 is just another marketing scheme. If you look for something hard enough you might find it, even if its completely subjective.
Hahahahahaah the end of the world in 2012 is .... BULLSHIT! The only thing I have to add.
Or not, Come on dude, basing your life on something that might and probably will not happen is stupid. If you ask the mayas if they think it will be the end of the world in 2012 they will all tell you that it won't be (except if they want to sell their books). Our current society is based on grief and pain. It's a self inflicted wound to say that everyone is gonna die in 2012, why not say that everyone will live up to 2012 ?
But this is off topic isn't it? ya it is! Back on topic everybody!
And lets just say.. lets assume we all die in 2012. Why should we all worry about that? If its really going to happen according to an old civilization, then there is nothing to stop it. So we should all just keep on .. I don't know... LIVING.. we'll die when it'll happen, we probably won't even know it, which makes our living part happier. No need to worry about crap like that.
Beside, I don't believe in it in the first place. And everyone should believe that way, because if we do die, then there is no one left to prove us wrong
So yes, d2 and d3 are actually much more related then most people, including Blizzard admit.
How so? D3 is utilizing an entirely new 3d gaming engine, the characters are vector based images, vector models are mathematically sized and scaled. D2 are raster based images, each different movement of a character requires an entirely new image. I'm not seeing how they are closely related.
I can tell you from experience, investors don't care how cool your application is, all they want is to know when they will make their investment back and what the ROI will be above it. Executives at Blizzard, their number one concern in today's market place is timing and pricing of products being released. The last thing blizzard wants are weak sales as a result of a market in a downward spiral.
I know I said 10.31.10 as the time of release because Halloween is a perfect time. Given the world's economic situation D3 may get released sooner than that since economic bad news comes out in September and October. The ALT-A and Option-ARM loans will start imploding in 2010, peak in 2011, and don't stop going boom until 2012. This reality is already weighing heavily on global markets. Blizzard's D3 best window of opportunity for good sales with the smallest chance of market distress is sometime in the spring or summer of next year. If we the other shoe drop this fall in the economy, then god only knows.
If Blizzard waits until 2011 they are risking selling into a market where new heavy job losses may occur or inflation starts to run away on us (real possibilities), economic destabilization may be in full force at that time from the massive deficit spending we are now engaged in. Eventually all the debt will come to bite the US in the ass along with all the countries who bought it. Blizzard's exec's are definitely thinking about stuff like this, their investor's expect them to. Releasing D3 won't be a business as usual, too many factors now.
unless exec's at Blizzard lost their mind....The lost customer base and bad press from the backlash alone would far over shadow the expense of finishing D3.
They are actually quite intelligent. WoW makes a steady BILLION dollars in revenue a year (assuming a box ships every at least every two years - and almost that without it). About 60% of that is PURE PROFIT. No one has margins like that. Most big retail businesses are happy with margins in the high single digits.
Do YOU think it would be smart to take a big chunk of that subscription-paying audience and replace it with a one-time box sale? Hell no. Especially because a big chunk of that WoW fanbase has never experienced a REAL game like Diablo II - give them a taste of a game that isn't incredibly boring, and they might leave forever. That's why they take their own sweet time - the whole idea is to keep fans waiting and 'loyal' to the Blizzard brand, while they keep raking in that WoW subscriber cash on a game largely developed over 5 years ago.
It is the WoW customer base they don't want to lose, especially on a product THEY paid to develop, test and market.
Except wow is a good game and it doesn't suck. I just don't play because of the monthly fee and time required to be good.
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I am cheese. I am loved by all. I go great with everything. Other foods hate me because I take all the glory. Like Nachos..Their just jealous cause no one eats them unless Im there. Shit..I even ruined broccili's rep. Broccili kept talkin shit so I was like. " You know what?, I think I might melt myself on some Broccilli. See how those humans enjoy that green [sexual slur censored] now." Shit...Now,People dont even touch him, unless Im all over that shit! Ahhh..Its not easy, being cheesy.. Peace. Cheese Out.
They are actually quite intelligent. WoW makes a steady BILLION dollars in revenue a year (assuming a box ships every at least every two years - and almost that without it). About 60% of that is PURE PROFIT. No one has margins like that. Most big retail businesses are happy with margins in the high single digits.
Do YOU think it would be smart to take a big chunk of that subscription-paying audience and replace it with a one-time box sale? Hell no. Especially because a big chunk of that WoW fanbase has never experienced a REAL game like Diablo II - give them a taste of a game that isn't incredibly boring, and they might leave forever. That's why they take their own sweet time - the whole idea is to keep fans waiting and 'loyal' to the Blizzard brand, while they keep raking in that WoW subscriber cash on a game largely developed over 5 years ago.
It is the WoW customer base they don't want to lose, especially on a product THEY paid to develop, test and market.
What? What kind of argument is that? Especially considering you are totally basing it on your own opinion.
I also STILL have NO idea why its a rule that someone can't play both D3 and WoW. Maybe there are many hardcores who dedicate, in the end, as much time to Diablo as a MMO, but I'm confident most don't. I actually never met anyone that played Diablo that much. But since they are both different, if I still enjoyed WoW I would play both. Only other important factors are time and money, but if you are playing WoW, I bet you have enough of those...
They are actually quite intelligent. WoW makes a steady BILLION dollars in revenue a year (assuming a box ships every at least every two years - and almost that without it). About 60% of that is PURE PROFIT. No one has margins like that. Most big retail businesses are happy with margins in the high single digits.
Do YOU think it would be smart to take a big chunk of that subscription-paying audience and replace it with a one-time box sale? Hell no. Especially because a big chunk of that WoW fanbase has never experienced a REAL game like Diablo II - give them a taste of a game that isn't incredibly boring, and they might leave forever. That's why they take their own sweet time - the whole idea is to keep fans waiting and 'loyal' to the Blizzard brand, while they keep raking in that WoW subscriber cash on a game largely developed over 5 years ago.
It is the WoW customer base they don't want to lose, especially on a product THEY paid to develop, test and market.
So your saying that it is completely crazy that I played FFxi for 4 years (390+ days played) & WoW for 3 years (290+ days played), at the same time playing other games like Oblivion (100+ hours played) and Titan Quest (200+ hours played)????
Not to mention, when I played WoW untill the end of the Burning Crusade (I raided from Molten Core to Nax), after almost ever single guild raid, at least 75% (30/40) of us would all break off and either play D2 or Counter Strike.
I think you totally underestimate how much time MMO gamers have on their hands. Also you underestimate the need to take a break from MMO's and play other games, so you dont get burnt out.
I would go as far as to say that if Blizzard releases WoWs expansions and these new games proper, they would be able to retain almost every single WoW subscription, while at the same time having most of those people pick up Diablo 3 AND Starcraft 2.
I know that when I took a poll of my WoW guild and FFxi guild, most people are planning to stay playing their MMO's and also pickup D3 and/or SC2.
As for me, I'll probably be playing FFxiv, D3 & FF13 all at the same time.
A release 2 years from now seems highly likely. The battle.net 2.0 issue won't be a problem since the Starcraft 2 team will probably lay a hand to program and incorporate D3 into the system. Everyone can pitch pourcentages but the problem is that a pourcentage is not relative to time and here, it's all about time. I look at it like an program installation where going from 0% to 20% takes 25 minutes and from 20% to 40% takes 30 seconds! Lets apply this to diablo 3 :
0% to 40% took around 4 years (2002-2007) considering that they had test many game engines to find the right one. Here it also includes the concept art, some environments and systems such as the rune system. The storyline is established and D3 authors are consulted to lay d3's story.
40% to 50% took 1 year (2007-2008) they designed the first 3 characters, took the decision to keep the barb. They also decided to announce the game during the summer.
50% to 65% took another 1 year (2008-2009). They finished making the 2 characters, 1st act is done and 2nd is pretty complete. 2 new systems are complete and will be announced at the 2009 blizzcon, my guess here is the gem system with the specific shapes and pvp system. Work has already begun on the 3rd act. The 2 final chars (archer/assassin+ fighter/mage) one of them is completely done and one still needs some touch ups.
65% to 85% one more year has passed (2009-2010). Here it goes faster since most of the systems are in place and work well. Act 3 is done and the only things remaining are the bosses and adventures. Pretty much all the voices and animations for act 1 and 2 are done. The art department are done with all the concept art and start to chose the ones they want to put in the collector's box :P. Monster design for act 1,2,3,4 is done and the death animations too. All the game's mechanics are complete and the same goes for the environments for act 1,2 and 3.
85% to 100% the last year (2010-2011). Act 4 is complete at last, this is the "coup de gr?ce" and unlike d2's act 4, this one is more spectacular than the 3 others before. The 5 characters are mildly balanced at first but after the beta (given at the 2009 blizzcon, in effect during october 2010 and ending in december 2010) they are well balanced. Systems are reevaluated and ameliorated. Starcraft 2 team will help Diablo 3' s team to set up the battle.net 2 system for the game and since they had experienced the online game mechanic before this part is done in no time. The voices are all done, the animations are done, the acts are done, mechanic and gamplay are up and working.... D3 is done!
So here's my prediction D3 will be done at 100% and released during Q1 or Q2 of 2011
ha ha since you said that no one talk anymore! I'll start the show again, anyone wanna comment on this?
I'm thinking of about 40-50% is done when blizzcon arrives
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I'm thinking of about 40-50% is done when blizzcon arrives
I gotta say more than that. Almost 40-50% was done back in June when they told us that the last two classes were already playable in their office and Act 2 was coming along quite nicely. Even if we don't see everything they have worked on at Blizzcon 2009, they will still be farther ahead than what they have officially announced. I would say that at this point, all 5 characters are absolutely playable with many skills, Act 1 is done (minus polishing), Act 2 is almost done, and Act 3 is in the making. This would be about 60-75% finished as of Blizzcon 2009.
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There are no stupid questions, just a bunch of inquisitive idiots.
I gotta say more than that. Almost 40-50% was done back in June when they told us that the last two classes were already playable in their office and Act 2 was coming along quite nicely. Even if we don't see everything they have worked on at Blizzcon 2009, they will still be farther ahead than what they have officially announced. I would say that at this point, all 5 characters are absolutely playable with many skills, Act 1 is done (minus polishing), Act 2 is almost done, and Act 3 is in the making. This would be about 60-75% finished as of Blizzcon 2009.
What makes you think that? last blizzcon barely shows anything; they said that they are able to get act 1 done few months back. If you say they are 60-75 meaning they got most act done minus the movies/bugs/quest/items and such.
What makes you think that? last blizzcon barely shows anything; they said that they are able to get act 1 done few months back. If you say they are 60-75 meaning they got most act done minus the movies/bugs/quest/items and such.
Well, as of June 28, 2008, according to the Interview with Rob Pardo (watch at 2 minutes) they had all the classes playable. I remember somewhere else (anyone remember where) they said that the 4th and 5th class were both playable, one using a placeholder and the other was just about to get a custom design. That was back in 2008 as well if I remember correctly.
Also, just because Blizzcon 08 didn't show you everything doesn't mean there was not a lot more going on behind the scenes. Even if Act was is not considered "done" by Blizzard standards only a few months ago, there was probably still a lot of work being put into Act 2, and maybe even Act 3. As Pardo said in the interview, their main priority (at that time) was content, and they have probably been doing a lot of it.
We will just have to see what Blizzcon 09 has to offer. Whatever they show us, they have plenty more they are withholding behind the scenes as well.
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There are no stupid questions, just a bunch of inquisitive idiots.
Character class are essentials for the development of diablo 3. They can add many character as they like but it no indication of completion. Classes is just like another npc/monsters with skills. Development time is very little although important to players simply because we have high opinion of what is added. The true developments are environment, engine, mechanics, movies, cutscenes, storyboarding, quest, and animation which takes the most time to create.
Character class are essentials for the development of diablo 3. They can add many character as they like but it no indication of completion. Classes is just like another npc/monsters with skills. Development time is very little although important to players simply because we have high opinion of what is added. The true developments are environment, engine, mechanics, movies, cutscenes, storyboarding, quest, and animation which takes the most time to create.
And you don't think with a playable version already shown off at Blizzcon 08 (and soon to be at 09) means anything toward engine and mechanics? Most of their lore concept is probably already worked through (as far as the main story goes). They haven't shown off or even mentioned cinematics, so that's all speculation at this point. If Act 1 is done, then that means 1/4 of the total environment is done already (probably more at this point).
Honestly, in my opinion creating the engine, creating concepts, and figuring out the art direction is a huge chunk of the work already done. Also, I never said that that last 25-40% will take the same time as the first 60-75%. Its just a guestimation, there is no reason to hate.
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There are no stupid questions, just a bunch of inquisitive idiots.
Ok lets get into the math. Heres the split up into groups. Classes, Acts, Monsters/Bosses, NPC's, Technical Design. For classes i would give about 40% of the game, i listened to BlizzCast 8 i beleive, and they said 3 chars are playable fully, 1 is in a placeholder, so in other words the design is not finished, and the last is still on the drawing boards. So for classes i give about 38%. The Acts are about 25 % of the game. They have stated that Act 1 and Act 2 are playable, and Act 3 is in the works. Of a possible 5 acts, then this give about 13% for acts. For monster and bosses, we dont know to much, other than what they have on the site. The bosses and monster i beleive are about 15% of the game, so i am thinking 8% completion there. The NPC`s, this also includes mercs, that is about 10%, since we dont really know to much, i would assume about 5%. Then for the Technical Design, wich is lighting, and colors, ect... a possible 10% of the game i would give it about a 7% completion.
This in total gives us a 63% completion. Now this is all assumption, of course the balance of % might be different, and i may have left some stuff out.
BUT!!! all of this information, is from Blizzcon 08 and interevies from last year, and a few this year. SO what im thinking is that in the meantime, up to Blizzcon 09 they have atleast done another 12% of the game, roughly.
SO: this would give us a 75% completiong at Blizzcon 09. This is jsut what they tell us, they could be keeping stuff secret from us, so....
Thats my 2 cents
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You know, compared to most people's posts on this topic, that doesn't sound very ridiculous at all!
This really rare galactic alignment your talking about is the earth sun and center of the galaxy aligning....... well guess what happens EVERY year on December 21. The mayan calender was printed on stone, it stopped at the end of one of their cycles that was based on farming. There were many ends to the cycles..... its much more likely they didnt need to continue 1000 of years into the future.... I have a 2009 calender in my room and the cycle of that calendar ends on December 31. It would be pointless to have it go more than a year, same thing. Also, 2012 the movie.... I hope no one takes that serious because at the end of the movie, aliens come and are the ones responsible.... hahaha 2012 is just another marketing scheme. If you look for something hard enough you might find it, even if its completely subjective.
Or not, Come on dude, basing your life on something that might and probably will not happen is stupid. If you ask the mayas if they think it will be the end of the world in 2012 they will all tell you that it won't be (except if they want to sell their books). Our current society is based on grief and pain. It's a self inflicted wound to say that everyone is gonna die in 2012, why not say that everyone will live up to 2012 ?
But this is off topic isn't it? ya it is! Back on topic everybody!
And lets just say.. lets assume we all die in 2012. Why should we all worry about that? If its really going to happen according to an old civilization, then there is nothing to stop it. So we should all just keep on .. I don't know... LIVING.. we'll die when it'll happen, we probably won't even know it, which makes our living part happier. No need to worry about crap like that.
Beside, I don't believe in it in the first place. And everyone should believe that way, because if we do die, then there is no one left to prove us wrong
How so? D3 is utilizing an entirely new 3d gaming engine, the characters are vector based images, vector models are mathematically sized and scaled. D2 are raster based images, each different movement of a character requires an entirely new image. I'm not seeing how they are closely related.
I can tell you from experience, investors don't care how cool your application is, all they want is to know when they will make their investment back and what the ROI will be above it. Executives at Blizzard, their number one concern in today's market place is timing and pricing of products being released. The last thing blizzard wants are weak sales as a result of a market in a downward spiral.
I know I said 10.31.10 as the time of release because Halloween is a perfect time. Given the world's economic situation D3 may get released sooner than that since economic bad news comes out in September and October. The ALT-A and Option-ARM loans will start imploding in 2010, peak in 2011, and don't stop going boom until 2012. This reality is already weighing heavily on global markets. Blizzard's D3 best window of opportunity for good sales with the smallest chance of market distress is sometime in the spring or summer of next year. If we the other shoe drop this fall in the economy, then god only knows.
If Blizzard waits until 2011 they are risking selling into a market where new heavy job losses may occur or inflation starts to run away on us (real possibilities), economic destabilization may be in full force at that time from the massive deficit spending we are now engaged in. Eventually all the debt will come to bite the US in the ass along with all the countries who bought it. Blizzard's exec's are definitely thinking about stuff like this, their investor's expect them to. Releasing D3 won't be a business as usual, too many factors now.
They are actually quite intelligent. WoW makes a steady BILLION dollars in revenue a year (assuming a box ships every at least every two years - and almost that without it). About 60% of that is PURE PROFIT. No one has margins like that. Most big retail businesses are happy with margins in the high single digits.
Do YOU think it would be smart to take a big chunk of that subscription-paying audience and replace it with a one-time box sale? Hell no. Especially because a big chunk of that WoW fanbase has never experienced a REAL game like Diablo II - give them a taste of a game that isn't incredibly boring, and they might leave forever. That's why they take their own sweet time - the whole idea is to keep fans waiting and 'loyal' to the Blizzard brand, while they keep raking in that WoW subscriber cash on a game largely developed over 5 years ago.
It is the WoW customer base they don't want to lose, especially on a product THEY paid to develop, test and market.
What? What kind of argument is that? Especially considering you are totally basing it on your own opinion.
I also STILL have NO idea why its a rule that someone can't play both D3 and WoW. Maybe there are many hardcores who dedicate, in the end, as much time to Diablo as a MMO, but I'm confident most don't. I actually never met anyone that played Diablo that much. But since they are both different, if I still enjoyed WoW I would play both. Only other important factors are time and money, but if you are playing WoW, I bet you have enough of those...
So your saying that it is completely crazy that I played FFxi for 4 years (390+ days played) & WoW for 3 years (290+ days played), at the same time playing other games like Oblivion (100+ hours played) and Titan Quest (200+ hours played)????
Not to mention, when I played WoW untill the end of the Burning Crusade (I raided from Molten Core to Nax), after almost ever single guild raid, at least 75% (30/40) of us would all break off and either play D2 or Counter Strike.
I think you totally underestimate how much time MMO gamers have on their hands. Also you underestimate the need to take a break from MMO's and play other games, so you dont get burnt out.
I would go as far as to say that if Blizzard releases WoWs expansions and these new games proper, they would be able to retain almost every single WoW subscription, while at the same time having most of those people pick up Diablo 3 AND Starcraft 2.
I know that when I took a poll of my WoW guild and FFxi guild, most people are planning to stay playing their MMO's and also pickup D3 and/or SC2.
As for me, I'll probably be playing FFxiv, D3 & FF13 all at the same time.
(I hope I got all of the off topic posts here, if anyone has any questions, please PM me.)
/not for discussion
ha ha since you said that no one talk anymore! I'll start the show again, anyone wanna comment on this?
add me if you want to^^
Europe non ladder and ladder player
I'm gonna put my highrune in your socket
flyarion, flyarion_third, flyarion_fourth, flyarion_fifth
I gotta say more than that. Almost 40-50% was done back in June when they told us that the last two classes were already playable in their office and Act 2 was coming along quite nicely. Even if we don't see everything they have worked on at Blizzcon 2009, they will still be farther ahead than what they have officially announced. I would say that at this point, all 5 characters are absolutely playable with many skills, Act 1 is done (minus polishing), Act 2 is almost done, and Act 3 is in the making. This would be about 60-75% finished as of Blizzcon 2009.
What makes you think that? last blizzcon barely shows anything; they said that they are able to get act 1 done few months back. If you say they are 60-75 meaning they got most act done minus the movies/bugs/quest/items and such.
Well, as of June 28, 2008, according to the Interview with Rob Pardo (watch at 2 minutes) they had all the classes playable. I remember somewhere else (anyone remember where) they said that the 4th and 5th class were both playable, one using a placeholder and the other was just about to get a custom design. That was back in 2008 as well if I remember correctly.
Also, just because Blizzcon 08 didn't show you everything doesn't mean there was not a lot more going on behind the scenes. Even if Act was is not considered "done" by Blizzard standards only a few months ago, there was probably still a lot of work being put into Act 2, and maybe even Act 3. As Pardo said in the interview, their main priority (at that time) was content, and they have probably been doing a lot of it.
We will just have to see what Blizzcon 09 has to offer. Whatever they show us, they have plenty more they are withholding behind the scenes as well.
And you don't think with a playable version already shown off at Blizzcon 08 (and soon to be at 09) means anything toward engine and mechanics? Most of their lore concept is probably already worked through (as far as the main story goes). They haven't shown off or even mentioned cinematics, so that's all speculation at this point. If Act 1 is done, then that means 1/4 of the total environment is done already (probably more at this point).
Honestly, in my opinion creating the engine, creating concepts, and figuring out the art direction is a huge chunk of the work already done. Also, I never said that that last 25-40% will take the same time as the first 60-75%. Its just a guestimation, there is no reason to hate.
This in total gives us a 63% completion. Now this is all assumption, of course the balance of % might be different, and i may have left some stuff out.
BUT!!! all of this information, is from Blizzcon 08 and interevies from last year, and a few this year. SO what im thinking is that in the meantime, up to Blizzcon 09 they have atleast done another 12% of the game, roughly.
SO: this would give us a 75% completiong at Blizzcon 09. This is jsut what they tell us, they could be keeping stuff secret from us, so....
Thats my 2 cents