I already showed them that video, and they came up with some ridiculous conspiracy theory to ignore it.
Let me get this straight
So on one side there's that chain teleport on a emulated server and on the other side I have the 2011 arena experience telling me otherwise [ask anyone who've played wizard arena during blizzcon]
And if I don't choose to believe that Blizz decided to drastically change how the spell works because of what I've seen on an emulated server, that makes me a conspiracy theorist?
Really interesting thread. I work as statistic so maybe i can help.
a) 2xx sample size has a huge experimental error because population is nearly infinite (some millions)
b )Swedish sample looks fine but only can represent swedish population, you cannot asume that Swedish population = World population.
Now as a gamer:
I will play a Sorc (sorry preffer "Sorc" to "Wizard") and i dont care about underpower. Moreover, in many games, sorc class normally is at lower possitions in early levels but are very devastating in high levels (even in Diablo 2!)
266 is not a decent sample size for a study of this magnitude. I doubt even 3300 is, but at least it's somewhat closer to the truth. Also, none of these polls will reflect the truth because a majority of players doesn't frequent forums, so taking people from only one place can result in some unwanted variables.
I found the Wizard to be kinda fun in beta, but I don't feel he have anything very funny endgame. Meteor was nerfed to pieces, teleport is a joke compared to other displacers... everything fun with the d2 sorc has gone out the window. Still looking to be my 2nd/3rd class though, but only cause I dislike WD and DH and don't want to play two melees in a row.
Sorry but 3300 is enough and 266 is not bad for a good precision.
On the other hand the problem relies in who are the voters, if your 3300 voters are a very specific population and doesn't represent the overall population then its useless no matter if you have 3300 or 300 000 voters.
And I can assume with almost certainty that this sample is not a good representation of the population of players.
266 is not a decent sample size for a study of this magnitude. I doubt even 3300 is, but at least it's somewhat closer to the truth. Also, none of these polls will reflect the truth because a majority of players doesn't frequent forums, so taking people from only one place can result in some unwanted variables.
I found the Wizard to be kinda fun in beta, but I don't feel he have anything very funny endgame. Meteor was nerfed to pieces, teleport is a joke compared to other displacers... everything fun with the d2 sorc has gone out the window. Still looking to be my 2nd/3rd class though, but only cause I dislike WD and DH and don't want to play two melees in a row.
Sorry but 3300 is enough and 266 is not bad for a good precision.
On the other hand the problem relies in who are the voters, if your 3300 voters are a very specific population and doesn't represent the overall population then its useless no matter if you have 3300 or 300 000 voters.
And I can assume with almost certainty that this sample is not a good representation of the population of players.
As i said in my post before, this is exactly what i meant
Because judging how effective the wizard is gonna be overall by 13 levels makes ALOT of sense.
I have to admit I was underwhelmed with the wizard during the beta until I got diamond skin. Then it was like night and day as you could tank some damage from melee for a sec and time your frost nova to gain maximum distance.
Wizard has alot of cool skills and abilities that we just don't have access to yet.
I mean if you don't think a wizard isn't going to be radically different with teleport, mirror images and archon, come on....
And I can assume with almost certainty that this sample is not a good representation of the population of players.
No, no you can't. That's the entire point, the sample doesn't give you the right to any non-trivial knowledge claims.
Nice argument but you can't also claim that its a good representation.Nevertheless the point is that we can't take that survey as valid for whole Diablo 3 gamers population because, as you said, the sample doesn't gee you the right to any non.trivial knowledge claims.
PS: Maybe i should include a David Hume's quote as signature
Actually the size of the population is not terribly important when determine margin for error and sample size. 1000 people should get you around or under a 3% margin of error for a poll like this.
The real problem, is that the participants in the survey are not representative of the population in question, so none of the data turned out by the poll is useful for any question beyond determining opinions of D3fans.com forum users.
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I grew up gaming without internet forums. The entire phenomenon of being upset with a game developer makes no sense to me. No sense. I cannot imagine spending my time and energy being upset about something I choose to do for recreation.
Actually the size of the population is not terribly important when determine margin for error and sample size. 1000 people should get you around or under a 3% margin of error for a poll like this.
The real problem, is that the participants in the survey are not representative of the population in question, so none of the data turned out by the poll is useful for any question beyond determining opinions of D3fans.com forum users.
Finnaly someone who knows at least the basics of statistics and inference.
An 200~300 sample is more then enough to survey D3 population. I bet people who said otherwise didn't runned the tests or don't know how to do it. Also about the sample bias: unless you give a theorycal reason why dfans behaves unlike the population and why this difference makes then hate wizard more you can't argue the sample 've bias.
The sample is allways unbiased unless proven otherwise. Basically because statistcally any sample IS unbiased unless something strange happens. It might be that some "anti wizard" movement is taking place in this site and not on the whole population. Still you have to explain and prove your point before denying the statistical evidence.
The sample is allways unbiased unless proven otherwise.
I'm sorry, you've got that backwards. A sample is only useful if the margin for error is known. The margin for error can only be known if all possible measures to eliminate selection bias have taken. Ideally that means a fully blind selection of the full population.
Since this survey is taking place on a fansite forum, you've inherently created a sub-set of the population that has different characteristics than the target population. We have no data on the characteristic differences of the population of this forum from the population at large, so our margin for error is undefined. Data=garbage.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I grew up gaming without internet forums. The entire phenomenon of being upset with a game developer makes no sense to me. No sense. I cannot imagine spending my time and energy being upset about something I choose to do for recreation.
The sample is allways unbiased unless proven otherwise.
I'm sorry, you've got that backwards. A sample is only useful if the margin for error is known. The margin for error can only be known if all possible measures to eliminate selection bias have taken. Ideally that means a fully blind selection of the full population.
Since this survey is taking place on a fansite forum, you've inherently created a sub-set of the population that has different characteristics than the target population. We have no data on the characteristic differences of the population of this forum from the population at large, so our margin for error is undefined. Data=garbage.
As a profesional statiscian, this is a really good answer. It will be as this guy pointed out till somebody demonstrates that this fansite forum represents the diablo 3 population. By the way, same would happen with the Swedish survey
Actually the size of the population is not terribly important when determine margin for error and sample size. 1000 people should get you around or under a 3% margin of error for a poll like this.
The real problem, is that the participants in the survey are not representative of the population in question, so none of the data turned out by the poll is useful for any question beyond determining opinions of D3fans.com forum users.
Just as a simple lesson. With an infinite population (> ~1.000.000) and taking into account the worst scenario possible (p=q=0,5) and a confidence margin of 95%; the error of having a sample is, as the guy before said, around 3%. This is quite good. We only have the epistemological problem of: ¿Is this fansite representative for the population of d3 players?
Basing on my open beta weekend experience, wizard sucked. It killed slow and lacked AoE.
Then I found a very good wand while on my monk.
Wizard was never the same - I feel it just relies most on weapon damage (at least at the start). And especially when the class starts to get more AoE abilities it just gets more and more fun (Wave of Force is pretty OP at the start, again - with a good weapon)
I'm sure the sample size of that poll is to small to make any judgements Wizard will do well.
The sample is allways unbiased unless proven otherwise.
I'm sorry, you've got that backwards. A sample is only useful if the margin for error is known. The margin for error can only be known if all possible measures to eliminate selection bias have taken. Ideally that means a fully blind selection of the full population.
Since this survey is taking place on a fansite forum, you've inherently created a sub-set of the population that has different characteristics than the target population. We have no data on the characteristic differences of the population of this forum from the population at large, so our margin for error is undefined. Data=garbage.
You didn't understood my argument. As you said the survey can be rightfully used to describe Dfans population. theres no selection bias. Thats the first argument.
The second argument is that one can use the estimated value in this site (the diference between wizard users in the old and present surveys) and assume this value represent a shift that 've occured in the population. Unless theres some reason to believe dfans and the general population behaves differently you can say any changes here represents a change outsides of here.
Theres no prove both behaves equally but theres no prove they behave differently.
Sure, I understand your argument. You're just wrong about the value of the survey, dude.
I said the sample size was significant, but the sample population was bad data.
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I grew up gaming without internet forums. The entire phenomenon of being upset with a game developer makes no sense to me. No sense. I cannot imagine spending my time and energy being upset about something I choose to do for recreation.
Wizard was hella boring from level 1-8 but after that they become more fun, I think at a higher level Wizard will be a kickass class to play. Myself at least I will be playing WD.
I love the Wizard, it will be my first. Personally I think the monk is real shit with those weak and boring tri-hits, as in I won't even touch him, but hey, there's opinions for ya.
People will always gravitate to the "newer" class.
After playing the beta extensively (from Patch 13 to end), I thought all 5 classes were very well balanced in regards to damage and fun. It's all about preference. Just because you don't like a class, that doesn't mean it won't fit another person's play style perfectly.
Thank God we don't all have to walk around in matching uniforms.
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You must be seeking troll fuel.
http://i.imgur.com/O7Oeo.png
I received TWO beta keys. Eat it and like it.
Let me get this straight
So on one side there's that chain teleport on a emulated server and on the other side I have the 2011 arena experience telling me otherwise [ask anyone who've played wizard arena during blizzcon]
And if I don't choose to believe that Blizz decided to drastically change how the spell works because of what I've seen on an emulated server, that makes me a conspiracy theorist?
a) 2xx sample size has a huge experimental error because population is nearly infinite (some millions)
b )Swedish sample looks fine but only can represent swedish population, you cannot asume that Swedish population = World population.
Now as a gamer:
I will play a Sorc (sorry preffer "Sorc" to "Wizard") and i dont care about underpower. Moreover, in many games, sorc class normally is at lower possitions in early levels but are very devastating in high levels (even in Diablo 2!)
I like how 1% of people don't have a gender in this poll.
Sorry but 3300 is enough and 266 is not bad for a good precision.
On the other hand the problem relies in who are the voters, if your 3300 voters are a very specific population and doesn't represent the overall population then its useless no matter if you have 3300 or 300 000 voters.
And I can assume with almost certainty that this sample is not a good representation of the population of players.
As i said in my post before, this is exactly what i meant
I have to admit I was underwhelmed with the wizard during the beta until I got diamond skin. Then it was like night and day as you could tank some damage from melee for a sec and time your frost nova to gain maximum distance.
Wizard has alot of cool skills and abilities that we just don't have access to yet.
I mean if you don't think a wizard isn't going to be radically different with teleport, mirror images and archon, come on....
Nice argument but you can't also claim that its a good representation.Nevertheless the point is that we can't take that survey as valid for whole Diablo 3 gamers population because, as you said, the sample doesn't gee you the right to any non.trivial knowledge claims.
PS: Maybe i should include a David Hume's quote as signature
REALLY?
The real problem, is that the participants in the survey are not representative of the population in question, so none of the data turned out by the poll is useful for any question beyond determining opinions of D3fans.com forum users.
Finnaly someone who knows at least the basics of statistics and inference.
An 200~300 sample is more then enough to survey D3 population. I bet people who said otherwise didn't runned the tests or don't know how to do it. Also about the sample bias: unless you give a theorycal reason why dfans behaves unlike the population and why this difference makes then hate wizard more you can't argue the sample 've bias.
The sample is allways unbiased unless proven otherwise. Basically because statistcally any sample IS unbiased unless something strange happens. It might be that some "anti wizard" movement is taking place in this site and not on the whole population. Still you have to explain and prove your point before denying the statistical evidence.
I'm sorry, you've got that backwards. A sample is only useful if the margin for error is known. The margin for error can only be known if all possible measures to eliminate selection bias have taken. Ideally that means a fully blind selection of the full population.
Since this survey is taking place on a fansite forum, you've inherently created a sub-set of the population that has different characteristics than the target population. We have no data on the characteristic differences of the population of this forum from the population at large, so our margin for error is undefined. Data=garbage.
As a profesional statiscian, this is a really good answer. It will be as this guy pointed out till somebody demonstrates that this fansite forum represents the diablo 3 population. By the way, same would happen with the Swedish survey
Totally failed statistics.
As this guy said:
Just as a simple lesson. With an infinite population (> ~1.000.000) and taking into account the worst scenario possible (p=q=0,5) and a confidence margin of 95%; the error of having a sample is, as the guy before said, around 3%. This is quite good. We only have the epistemological problem of: ¿Is this fansite representative for the population of d3 players?
Then I found a very good wand while on my monk.
Wizard was never the same - I feel it just relies most on weapon damage (at least at the start). And especially when the class starts to get more AoE abilities it just gets more and more fun (Wave of Force is pretty OP at the start, again - with a good weapon)
I'm sure the sample size of that poll is to small to make any judgements Wizard will do well.
You didn't understood my argument. As you said the survey can be rightfully used to describe Dfans population. theres no selection bias. Thats the first argument.
The second argument is that one can use the estimated value in this site (the diference between wizard users in the old and present surveys) and assume this value represent a shift that 've occured in the population. Unless theres some reason to believe dfans and the general population behaves differently you can say any changes here represents a change outsides of here.
Theres no prove both behaves equally but theres no prove they behave differently.
I said the sample size was significant, but the sample population was bad data.
People will always gravitate to the "newer" class.
After playing the beta extensively (from Patch 13 to end), I thought all 5 classes were very well balanced in regards to damage and fun. It's all about preference. Just because you don't like a class, that doesn't mean it won't fit another person's play style perfectly.
Thank God we don't all have to walk around in matching uniforms.