Just a little tidbit, you should replace "Expected" with "Average"; there's a rather large distinction to be made here when dealing with probabilities. Expectation is usually within 90-95% odds of receiving it. Average, however, is much, much lower, usually between 60-80%. IE: If you flip a coin 10 times, you will on average find 5 heads and 5 tails(insert argument for weighted sides, not truly random, etc. whatever about that) but the actual odds of this happening to you aren't even close to 100%. 10C5 = 252 / 1024 = .246 or roughly 25%. Even though over infinity you will, on average, get 5 heads 5 tails(in a truly random test), in individual tests you won't generally see 5 heads and 5 tails.
Average is accurate, expected is not.
Expected is exactly the right term, specifically when talking about probabilities. This was also discussed on the previous page. And this might be helpful as well.
Interesting, It's a term that(at least in this instance) is entirely synonymous with Average, but leads credence to confusion among people who don't immediately know what the word means. I stand by saying that in this instance Average would be less confused by some, and I don't understand why you'd use a fairly technical phrase in a report to laymen, but I suppose I was mistaken.
Screw that damn Wand of Woh... Inigo farmed 4k Legs to get 1 single one, thats not including shards spent.... Could take well over a year for someone to find one if they play like 4-6hrs a day... Ridiculous..
Updated for 2.05 assuming that Kadala uses the same weightings that were datamined recently
Thank you very much for keeping this up to date. I wonder if it's possible to update this to 2.0.6? We have no new datamined information, but for all we know the class set items' value in the tables have simply been doubled (to make it on par with, e.g., Blackthorne's). That would not *exactly* mean that you can half all those numbers - but it probably reduced the expected shards by about 40% or so per set item. My guess. Haven't done the math. Thoughts?
Also, I'm wondering if anyone is gambling weapons currently - and could keep an eye on the wands/other weapons ratio to find out if it's really 99k (2:1 ratio) or higher (my guess). I'm totally sick of RiF right now, so not many shards incoming anytime soon that could help me to find this out, but maybe if I go back to rifting next week once football's over...
Oh, and completely forgot to add this to the guide. Will add it right now, way too interesting to not mention in the RiF section.
Updated for 2.05 assuming that Kadala uses the same weightings that were datamined recently
Thank you very much for keeping this up to date. I wonder if it's possible to update this to 2.0.6? We have no new datamined information, but for all we know the class set items' value in the tables have simply been doubled (to make it on par with, e.g., Blackthorne's). That would not *exactly* mean that you can half all those numbers - but it probably reduced the expected shards by about 40% or so per set item. My guess. Haven't done the math. Thoughts?
Also, I'm wondering if anyone is gambling weapons currently - and could keep an eye on the wands/other weapons ratio to find out if it's really 99k (2:1 ratio) or higher (my guess). I'm totally sick of RiF right now, so not many shards incoming anytime soon that could help me to find this out, but maybe if I go back to rifting next week once football's over...
Oh, and completely forgot to add this to the guide. Will add it right now, way too interesting to not mention in the RiF section.
I am going to start gambling on weapons tonight and see how many it takes to get a Wand of Woh, right now I eat, sleep, breath, and dream about it, I can't get it out of my head.
Updated for 2.05 assuming that Kadala uses the same weightings that were datamined recently
Thank you very much for keeping this up to date. I wonder if it's possible to update this to 2.0.6? We have no new datamined information, but for all we know the class set items' value in the tables have simply been doubled (to make it on par with, e.g., Blackthorne's). That would not *exactly* mean that you can half all those numbers - but it probably reduced the expected shards by about 40% or so per set item. My guess. Haven't done the math. Thoughts?
Also, I'm wondering if anyone is gambling weapons currently - and could keep an eye on the wands/other weapons ratio to find out if it's really 99k (2:1 ratio) or higher (my guess). I'm totally sick of RiF right now, so not many shards incoming anytime soon that could help me to find this out, but maybe if I go back to rifting next week once football's over...
Oh, and completely forgot to add this to the guide. Will add it right now, way too interesting to not mention in the RiF section.
Ok, have done so, thanks for the appreciation and the link in your guide.
My information was the same that all of those class specific set items now have a 100 weighting instead of 50 before. That means they take less shards to get. However most legs have become more expensive that way, since the weighting-sums have increased.
Also, Blizz lied about all class set items dropping more frequently The Firebird Orb was at 100 before the patch, which results in a lowered drop rate.
And thanks for the data, SuchFear. From my personal WD-gambling experience I'd say the ratio is even worse than 1 in 3. But I'm too lazy to record my gambling results.
Also, I'm wondering if anyone is gambling weapons currently - and could keep an eye on the wands/other weapons ratio to find out if it's really 99k (2:1 ratio) or higher (my guess). I'm totally sick of RiF right now, so not many shards incoming anytime soon that could help me to find this out, but maybe if I go back to rifting next week once football's over...
Oh, and completely forgot to add this to the guide. Will add it right now, way too interesting to not mention in the RiF section.
Shards Spent- 1,500
Rares-91- 30 Wands
Blues-4-2 Wands
Legendary-1-Chantodo's Will
Ok, have done so, thanks for the appreciation and the link in your guide.
My information was the same that all of those class specific set items now have a 100 weighting instead of 50 before. That means they take less shards to get. However most legs have become more expensive that way, since the weighting-sums have increased.
Also, Blizz lied about all class set items dropping more frequently The Firebird Orb was at 100 before the patch, which results in a lowered drop rate.
And thanks for the data, SuchFear. From my personal WD-gambling experience I'd say the ratio is even worse than 1 in 3. But I'm too lazy to record my gambling results.
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Sol77-2972/hero/66110450
This was discussed in this thread earlier. "Expected" is exactly the right term - especially in context of RNG.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
But it's all in detail in the previous posts here.