As to set items, and I know this is wizards but... I got a Marauders shoulder the night of, and was under 200 shards. I promptly got a shout of encouragement froma clan mate that had been trying for weeks with no luck ( picture the Michigan state bird/salute).
So set stuff is happeneing, just RNG...
And after reading these numbers I'm seeing how hard it can be and how lucky I got.
Well, I've onyl gambled for gloves since the patch and got 1 Magefist, 0 Vyr iirc. Got 3 Firebirds and a few of the bad legs.
According to the newest gambling summary all of those numbers might be a bit high because I calculated with a 2% legendary chance. If it's only 1.5%, you can multiply all results with 1.33
While I question the methodology of trying to figure out an "average" of a completely RNG system (IE; cant be done without 100,000+ tests and STILL subject to chance) it's an interesting read and took some work!
The thread has some relevance for Ladder, where I'd sum it up to say never gamble jewelry or weapons till you have everything else.
What is this Archon build you like so much and how does it compare to Woh?
In probability, expected and average mean the same thing. Expected is the proper term. It is not a guarantee you will get the item in that many shards, will usually be more or less due to luck.
Just a thought for the electric wizards out there, you might want to add the velvet cameral and myken's ball of hate to the list...and sigh...the shard of hate. Which I'm still waiting for!
Have anyone tried Focus and Restraint? I have them but they both rolled quite bad.
I've pondered these rings for a while. While one of them can roll okay ("Restraint.") Focus is bad approximately 90% of the time. The set bonus is 50% extra damage, but if you think about it, a Stone of Jordan rolls up to 50% damage to Elites for ONE ring slot.
Wow this is the rarest item in the game? I must be "lucky" then. I have this amu in my stast, but havent found a single endgame set item or any of the good legendaries... I guess yay?
You maybe could include other weapons like TF and the cold damage sword?
So if you're playing arcane EB with wand of woh, moonlight ward, Soj and andy's you've beat the game and are free to create an alt :).
Might I ask how you calculated these values btw? Did you grab the chance to get a legendary from the community calculations?
And did you get the expected shard count by multiplying the drop chance by the shards per item? If yes you might want to add some statistic disclaimers to prevent people yelling when they haven't gotten their item after exactly the ammount of shards listed (since ironically the chance to get the expected value or higher is usually 50ish%).
I have ran a wizard ever since ROS launched. This thread makes me LOL in a good way. I have been looking for a Tal Rasha Chest Piece since basically the release of 2.0. No Luck. Now that Kadala can give ya one I have been gambling for one non stop. Why? Basically to just complete that set. I have a very nice Cindercoat, Magefists, Tal Ammy, ect. Hell, even found 2 Taskers and one rolled very well (both off of Rift Guardians). Found some 15% Cold Frosties in a chest last night. I get better luck out in the field then I do Kadala. I have not found one thing I currently use from Kadala. Everything field found. I wont give up on that Tal Chest though. This thread makes me think... "Only a few more shards!" lol..
I know a lot of people who got shit ton of sets from Kadala. It's really just RNG. I choose to believe that in the end RNG all equals out. Which means at some point it's gonna rain set items from Kadala for me. Or a Wand of Woh. Which is why I might go back to gambling weapons tonight ;-)
I jumped on my Wiz after loosing my monk.(I have never played a wiz well besides getting one to 70 and putting away) And in the first 15 to 20 minutes I found this weapon from a pile of rubble. giddy up
Might also add Triumvirate as an offhand. Good for a lot of elemental builds with the +% elemental damage. Thanks for adding the lightning items. Nice job on this!
The Star of Azkaranth
Which builds? no specific build, just wanted to list the rarest item in the game
How important? -
Expected shards to get one? 696000 (621000 as WD)
I have two of these and only using the one on WD...
Just a little tidbit, you should replace "Expected" with "Average"; there's a rather large distinction to be made here when dealing with probabilities. Expectation is usually within 90-95% odds of receiving it. Average, however, is much, much lower, usually between 60-80%. IE: If you flip a coin 10 times, you will on average find 5 heads and 5 tails(insert argument for weighted sides, not truly random, etc. whatever about that) but the actual odds of this happening to you aren't even close to 100%. 10C5 = 252 / 1024 = .246 or roughly 25%. Even though over infinity you will, on average, get 5 heads 5 tails(in a truly random test), in individual tests you won't generally see 5 heads and 5 tails.
That is if blizzard have programmed everything right.
No one knows how it works.... They may have wanted it to be 16% and they may have said it is unrelated. But I have noticed lots of times that me and my party are getting legs from same mobs / chests. This contradicts whatever they say.
Just a little tidbit, you should replace "Expected" with "Average"; there's a rather large distinction to be made here when dealing with probabilities. Expectation is usually within 90-95% odds of receiving it. Average, however, is much, much lower, usually between 60-80%. IE: If you flip a coin 10 times, you will on average find 5 heads and 5 tails(insert argument for weighted sides, not truly random, etc. whatever about that) but the actual odds of this happening to you aren't even close to 100%. 10C5 = 252 / 1024 = .246 or roughly 25%. Even though over infinity you will, on average, get 5 heads 5 tails(in a truly random test), in individual tests you won't generally see 5 heads and 5 tails.
Average is accurate, expected is not.
Expected is exactly the right term, specifically when talking about probabilities. This was also discussed on the previous page. And this might be helpful as well.
You maybe could include other weapons like TF and the cold damage sword?
Compared to Shard of Hate, Thunderfury is twice as likely and Azurewrath is 4 times as likely, so you need 50% or 25% respectively of those listed shards
So set stuff is happeneing, just RNG...
And after reading these numbers I'm seeing how hard it can be and how lucky I got.
Great thread.
WD Season 8 https://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/Kildare/84509816
Monk season 7 http://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/MojoJoJo/42225505
DH season 6 http://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/DeadShot/75655606
Angry Chicken http://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/WhoDoVooDoo/68187610
What? Me worry?
According to the newest gambling summary all of those numbers might be a bit high because I calculated with a 2% legendary chance. If it's only 1.5%, you can multiply all results with 1.33
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Sol77-2972/hero/66110450
The thread has some relevance for Ladder, where I'd sum it up to say never gamble jewelry or weapons till you have everything else.
What is this Archon build you like so much and how does it compare to Woh?
You may be able too, as a Wizard, combine it with Pride's Fall (http://us.battle.net/d3/en/item/prides-fall-pgClp) and Dominance, but it's still a rather shitty bonus.
Take a pass.
Since the Vyr set got fixed, many people strive for it and just add Archon to their action bar. See Jaetch's vids for example.
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Sol77-2972/hero/66110450
You maybe could include other weapons like TF and the cold damage sword?
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Twoflower-2131/hero/47336841
http://www.diabloprogress.com/player/ambient-1624
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
Which builds? no specific build, just wanted to list the rarest item in the game
How important? -
Expected shards to get one? 696000 (621000 as WD)
I have two of these and only using the one on WD...
WD Season 8 https://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/Kildare/84509816
Monk season 7 http://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/MojoJoJo/42225505
DH season 6 http://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/DeadShot/75655606
Angry Chicken http://www.diabloprogress.com/hero/finiar-1655/WhoDoVooDoo/68187610
What? Me worry?
Very very good thread. This is helping me a lot (I am new with wizard, I'm coming from DH and WD).
I also noticed that for many lightning items, you said: "How important? can't tell". I'll tell you why, just showing you this build that I'm trying to do (this build basically means: light out the enemies keeping them stunned as much as possible):
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/14216441/brvzerxs-electro-stun-god-wizard-5-22-2014
I always wanted to find the ringwyrdwardfor my DH, but I have found it recently for my WD. Now its time to try this build.
Average is accurate, expected is not.
No one knows how it works.... They may have wanted it to be 16% and they may have said it is unrelated. But I have noticed lots of times that me and my party are getting legs from same mobs / chests. This contradicts whatever they say.
Expected is exactly the right term, specifically when talking about probabilities. This was also discussed on the previous page. And this might be helpful as well.
Compared to Shard of Hate, Thunderfury is twice as likely and Azurewrath is 4 times as likely, so you need 50% or 25% respectively of those listed shards
10 times the amount of Thundergods
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Sol77-2972/hero/66110450