You really think its going to take 5 WHOLE YEARS? Don't get me wrong, we all have opinions and to each its own, but that just seems way out of the ball park. LoD came out June 29, 2001. It has only really been a little over 8 years since release. You really don't thing they actively started working on D3 right after that came out did you? They had other stuff in mind, such as WC3 and its following expansion. I would be willing to say Diablo 3 didn't even get into the concept phase until at least some time 2003, if not later.
Concept could take a very long time, especially if they have other priorities in mind, as Blizzard ussually seems to do. I'd say they probably started thinking it up, and just started compiling ideas until they were ready to get that ball rolling. Once concept is completely done, they would have to start working on an engine. This isn't like the tons upon tons of console games that just jack (insert engine here, such as the Unreal engine) and make a game based off it. We are talking an entirely new engine from scratch, and this is Blizzard we are talking about as well. You can't expect them to even make an engine from scratch at the same rate other companies would because Blizzard is full of perfectionism. If you can't do it right, don't do it at all, and that is the way Blizzard rolls.
That being said, they probably didn't even have anything playable until late 2006 - mid 2007. From there they probably played around a lot, worked on it beside their higher priority projects (WoW expansions and SC2). We then didn't see something they saw fit for the public till 2008. Come June 28, 2008 they had all classes and Act 1 playable. That is a very good place to be at that time. In a whole years time they probably have all 5 classes pretty spiffy, Act 1 pretty much what they want it to be at this point, and working on Act 2 and beyond. All of it is subject to change, especially as they progress, but they seem to be making good timing now that that D3 is stepping up to the plate on Blizzard's priority list.
As I have said before, I personally think its realistic to expect a 2010-2011 release date. If they don't announce Cataclysm at Blizzcon 09, chances are Diablo 3 will be ideally expected in 2010 (as they have announced that we are likely to see two 2010 releases). If, however, Catacylsm really is announced this year, I have a bad feeling they are going to put it higher on the priority than Diablo 3, and end up bringing it out first. To me, its kinda sad that they would work harder on an expansion for a game thats been out for years than they would on a brand new game, but then again we are talking about their pet money maker WoW. I wouldn't really expect less from Blizzard these days, they have gotten pretty obsessed with WoW. I just hope they still have the ability to put the highest standards of game quality before everything else.
To me what you just said is you pulling estimates and timing for progress out of no where.
A year for them to make 1 act playable?? Come on, at that rate, we have AT LEAST 3 more years just to finish the acts??? please.
The longest part of game development by FAR is the engine. The engine part is pretty much complete, and has been for a while now with Diablo 3. One of the quickest parts of game development is content. Once all the engine and design pieces are in place, churning out content is trivial in comparison to the engine and design groundwork.
One of the reasons they aren't giving us details is because a lot of things are still in refinement. Like all Blizzard titles, they implement and then do several passes on a game system or concept to perfect it. Untill it's pretty much finalized, we won't be told much or anything about it.
Another thing you seem to be confused about is this idea of priority blizzard has on it's games. There are separate teams working on separate games. Just because WoW is their cash cow doesn't stop development on Diablo 3. Blizzard usually has 60 or so people per team per project (WOW seeming to be the exception considering the size and scope of the game). So the idea that SC2 is their priority and they just put D3 on the back burner is false. The people working on D3 keep working on D3 even if SC2 is coming out first. They don't just have one group of people that they shift from one game to another. They always have several projects in the works (many never get released check some old blizzcon panels)
I think they are further along in game development then some of you guys are giving them credit for. Hell, look at the playable demo at blizzcon. That "alpha" preview demo is more polished then many gold code games from other developers.
On a side note. Blizz said we can expect 2 Blizzard "titles" next year. What does blizzard consider a title? Do they consider expansions a title? From my understanding, a title is a full retail game, not an expansion to an already released title. IF thats the case, then the list of expected titles is pretty narrow
No doubt bliz will put D3 through a very extensive beta testing process to refine things. For a game as big as D3 they will need a long time for this. The final year of development will probably be mundane things such as fixes, tweaks and adding content (filling the acts, animations etc).
For a 2010 release to be possible blizcon needs to show us a D3 that appears to be near completion on the surface of things.
That's just wrong, and you obviously haven't got a clue what you're talking about. The development of the engine may be complicated, but it certainly doesn't take up the majority of development time.
Its a bit like a painting: first you draw an outline, but what really takes time is colouring it in and shading it properly.
It might help, that blizzard has (I presume) armies of content developers, but this also wouldn't be the first engine they have created.
Painting a canvas and creating a game are not comparable on that level.
The engine and developing the tools is the biggest step in the game development cycle.
Once this part of the game is done, the engine is doing what it's supposed to, the tools are there for other departments to create the levels, add the triggers for events, etc etc etc, then the content side of things goes considerably faster.
Of course it's somewhat relative as blizzard likes to give EVERYTHING upteen passes before they are happy.
I predict that its going to be at least 2011, maybe first half but most likely second. Heres why:
Recently or, not so recently announced diablo2 patch 1.13 is rumored to have respec availability... test possibly to see what works, and how it will be exploited...??? This patch is going to have a a PTR (public test realm???I think) for beta testing. So in terms of time that means, when it gets to the PTR it will probably test for 2-3 weeks, and require at least another month or 2 after that to finish the patch up. So even if the beta testing realm came up today we looking at the patch being released early 2010. Now lets connect some dots, 1.13 early 2010, maybe being used to determine what works and doesn't of their 'new' ideas for d3. If some system they have doesn't work they are going to have to redo it in d3. This will all be taking place... after 1.13's release. Now assuming they have all the content done by Blizzcon 2009, which is doubtful, and presumptuous, it would be simply folding in the information they learn from the patch, beta testing, reworking the bugs out, possibly even a second beta test, marketing, picking a 'high sales time' to release the game etc. Therefore simply i see:
Blizzcon 2009
-lots of content has been developed
-early 2010, d2 1.13 comes out
-Quarter 2 2010, observations made, new plan of action for d3 laid out.
-late 2010, beta testing
-late 2010 - mid 2011 fixing bugs and polishing every aspect
-game released November 2011 right before the holiday season.
This is assuming they already have >70% of the content developed by Blizzcon 2009. (Next week)
This makes me sad, I want to play the game now; but it will be good if its perfect and it's worth the wait - I don't really have a choice.
I predict that its going to be at least 2011, maybe first half but most likely second. Heres why:
Recently or, not so recently announced diablo2 patch 1.13 is rumored to have respec availability... test possibly to see what works, and how it will be exploited...??? This patch is going to have a a PTR (public test realm???I think) for beta testing. So in terms of time that means, when it gets to the PTR it will probably test for 2-3 weeks, and require at least another month or 2 after that to finish the patch up. So even if the beta testing realm came up today we looking at the patch being released early 2010. Now lets connect some dots, 1.13 early 2010, maybe being used to determine what works and doesn't of their 'new' ideas for d3. If some system they have doesn't work they are going to have to redo it in d3. This will all be taking place... after 1.13's release. Now assuming they have all the content done by Blizzcon 2009, which is doubtful, and presumptuous, it would be simply folding in the information they learn from the patch, beta testing, reworking the bugs out, possibly even a second beta test, marketing, picking a 'high sales time' to release the game etc. Therefore simply i see:
Blizzcon 2009
-lots of content has been developed
-early 2010, d2 1.13 comes out
-Quarter 2 2010, observations made, new plan of action for d3 laid out.
-late 2010, beta testing
-late 2010 - mid 2011 fixing bugs and polishing every aspect
-game released November 2011 right before the holiday season.
This is assuming they already have >70% of the content developed by Blizzcon 2009. (Next week)
This makes me sad, I want to play the game now; but it will be good if its perfect and it's worth the wait - I don't really have a choice.
You do understand that Diablo 3 is completely independent of 1.13 right? Bashiok already stated that even though 1.13 is incredibly delayed, that it doesn't take Diablo 3 off its schedule because they are completely separate teams.
Patch 1.13 was first intended to be released almost 6 months ago now, but slowed due to Battle.net, WoW, and StarCraft. This is because the team working on D2 is part of a team that works on all projects. Throw that into your rationalization.
Anything is comparable with anything else, and I was just using it as a more common example, as you didn't seem to have much of an idea about development.
Biggest step, but not the most time consuming.
Exactly which is why it takes so much time, espeacially when you're talking about a game on such a big scale.
This has to do with debugging/testing and takes up a huge chunk of the time, of course you can argue that this is "Engine Development". I'd say its debugging/testing though.
1. Not everything is comparable on every level if you want it to make sense and be on topic.
2. Content development is pretty fast compared to designing and building a game engine.
3. Big scale? big scale compared to what exactly? An RPG with 4 acts and probably 30-35 hour main campaign isn't exactly out there as far as off the chart in size. (I'm assuming it will be 4 acts and roughly 30+hours game time). The biggest part of diablo 3 is in the numbers and databases behind all the art. The art part of things is fairly quick when you have a competent staff.
4. Debugging and testing isn't the same as them doing 10 iterations of the UI for example. The previous UI may work and doesn't have bugs, but they aren't happy with teh final look or results and decide to do another pass on it. Blizzard does this for like everything.
As for the other post about the 1.13 patch delaying or being testing grounds for respecs for D3. I doubt it very much. D2-D3 are two completely separate beasts.
Everyone just needs to chill out. We will know alot more less than two weeks. Soon we will see how far along they are. I mean really we have been on a drought of info since last blizzcon and interviews done then post in oct and dec.
People need to also stop and consider there is a significant economic downturn still in the works and a good possibility it may get worse as a result of policies in place. Blizzard will no doubt be thinking about the economy as they develop software they are invested up to their eyeballs in.
I'm betting they want D3 out sooner than later, if I were dumping millions into a product I was wanting to sell, you can bet I would be wanting my product on store shelves before inflation becomes a serious issue for much of the world. Food for thought
That's precisely the reason why they are going to release Diablo III in October of 2010, and when I'm right, I expect a line of people,in front of my house, about 50 miles long, waiting to suck my balls.
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I think it is deceptive because the last 10% will take longer than the previous 30%, you know, the final tuning and balancing etc. Especially since they are going to make pvp a bigger part of D3 than previous Diablo titles to monetize esport playability.
Edwith is right, though not for the reasons he states (and is way off the mark with the 70% comment). There are two possibilities - 11-11-11 release, and cancellation. See my previous posts for the obvious explanations.
Watch Blizzcon is gonna come and all your measely percentages are going to skyrocket, just wait and see.
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Edwith is right, though not for the reasons he states (and is way off the mark with the 70% comment). There are two possibilities - 11-11-11 release, and cancellation. See my previous posts for the obvious explanations.
I think Edwith has over thought it, and I really don't see a 2 year away delivery date unless exec's at Blizzard lost their mind. What they have shown so far suggests they are significantly into D3 at this point. You don't put up a playable demo at Blizzcon without being committed to finishing the project. The lost customer base and bad press from the backlash alone would far over shadow the expense of finishing D3.
Another issue I forgot to add, but I considered it;
With battlenet pushed back they can only develop gameplay for d3 multiplayer. It will take a considerable amount of time after that to completely, bug free, integrate d3 with open battlenet.
-Also I do know d2 and d3 are entirely separate beasts. However claiming complete independence between the 2 is ignorant. They directly relate as titles, the results of the mechanics (specifcally the new 'skill reallocate', and i'm sure they have more to try in 1.13) relate to d3. d2 makes an easy testbed. And even if it didn't if i ran blizzard I would want my patch team talking to d3 developers because communication is key. I'm sure the d2 team tried stuff that didnt work, they'll talk to and save the d3 time of trying it themselves. Not to mentions I am sure the content developers, and artists overlap.
So yes, d2 and d3 are actually much more related then most people, including Blizzard admit.
Another issue I forgot to add, but I considered it;
With battlenet pushed back they can only develop gameplay for d3 multiplayer. It will take a considerable amount of time after that to completely, bug free, integrate d3 with open battlenet.
-Also I do know d2 and d3 are entirely separate beasts. However claiming complete independence between the 2 is ignorant. They directly relate as titles, the results of the mechanics (specifcally the new 'skill reallocate', and i'm sure they have more to try in 1.13) relate to d3. d2 makes an easy testbed. And even if it didn't if i ran blizzard I would want my patch team talking to d3 developers because communication is key. I'm sure the d2 team tried stuff that didnt work, they'll talk to and save the d3 time of trying it themselves. Not to mentions I am sure the content developers, and artists overlap.
So yes, d2 and d3 are actually much more related then most people, including Blizzard admit.
No. They are completely separate game and the only thing they have to talk about/know about is how they plan to have it in the game, and how it affects the game. They are planning D3 on a totally different level than D2, and the game is already so different that its not even really the same thing anymore.
There is no testing there. I'm sick of hearing it just because a few guys started saying it like a dumb rumor. D2 respec is NOT used as a test for D3. It makes no sense. They COULD look at the effect it has on the community, but that in no way increases "time" or whatever. It just means a bit more discussion, its hardly worth considering as a factor.
Also, the part about Battle.net makes no sense. Battle.net 2 will be out before it even matters anyway. Its not like they can't do anything while its not there? The whole GAME was probably built to use Bnet 2.0. Its not just an added support somewhere in the middle that they have to work with, but can't because Bnet is not ready... Thats just.. nonsense.
A release 2 years from now seems highly likely. The battle.net 2.0 issue won't be a problem since the Starcraft 2 team will probably lay a hand to program and incorporate D3 into the system. Everyone can pitch pourcentages but the problem is that a pourcentage is not relative to time and here, it's all about time. I look at it like an program installation where going from 0% to 20% takes 25 minutes and from 20% to 40% takes 30 seconds! Lets apply this to diablo 3 :
0% to 40% took around 4 years (2002-2007) considering that they had test many game engines to find the right one. Here it also includes the concept art, some environments and systems such as the rune system. The storyline is established and D3 authors are consulted to lay d3's story.
40% to 50% took 1 year (2007-2008) they designed the first 3 characters, took the decision to keep the barb. They also decided to announce the game during the summer.
50% to 65% took another 1 year (2008-2009). They finished making the 2 characters, 1st act is done and 2nd is pretty complete. 2 new systems are complete and will be announced at the 2009 blizzcon, my guess here is the gem system with the specific shapes and pvp system. Work has already begun on the 3rd act. The 2 final chars (archer/assassin+ fighter/mage) one of them is completely done and one still needs some touch ups.
65% to 85% one more year has passed (2009-2010). Here it goes faster since most of the systems are in place and work well. Act 3 is done and the only things remaining are the bosses and adventures. Pretty much all the voices and animations for act 1 and 2 are done. The art department are done with all the concept art and start to chose the ones they want to put in the collector's box :P. Monster design for act 1,2,3,4 is done and the death animations too. All the game's mechanics are complete and the same goes for the environments for act 1,2 and 3.
85% to 100% the last year (2010-2011). Act 4 is complete at last, this is the "coup de gr?ce" and unlike d2's act 4, this one is more spectacular than the 3 others before. The 5 characters are mildly balanced at first but after the beta (given at the 2009 blizzcon, in effect during october 2010 and ending in december 2010) they are well balanced. Systems are reevaluated and ameliorated. Starcraft 2 team will help Diablo 3' s team to set up the battle.net 2 system for the game and since they had experienced the online game mechanic before this part is done in no time. The voices are all done, the animations are done, the acts are done, mechanic and gamplay are up and working.... D3 is done!
So here's my prediction D3 will be done at 100% and released during Q1 or Q2 of 2011
I still cannot believe this thread is still kicking... This is the most rediculous thread and there is almost no factual bases for any claim's...
But for the sake of argument, I will say the release is Q3 or Q4 of 2010. But percentages can change so rapidly, all you have to do is hit a snag and have to rework something and all of a sudden, 70% drops to 50%.
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To me what you just said is you pulling estimates and timing for progress out of no where.
A year for them to make 1 act playable?? Come on, at that rate, we have AT LEAST 3 more years just to finish the acts??? please.
The longest part of game development by FAR is the engine. The engine part is pretty much complete, and has been for a while now with Diablo 3. One of the quickest parts of game development is content. Once all the engine and design pieces are in place, churning out content is trivial in comparison to the engine and design groundwork.
One of the reasons they aren't giving us details is because a lot of things are still in refinement. Like all Blizzard titles, they implement and then do several passes on a game system or concept to perfect it. Untill it's pretty much finalized, we won't be told much or anything about it.
Another thing you seem to be confused about is this idea of priority blizzard has on it's games. There are separate teams working on separate games. Just because WoW is their cash cow doesn't stop development on Diablo 3. Blizzard usually has 60 or so people per team per project (WOW seeming to be the exception considering the size and scope of the game). So the idea that SC2 is their priority and they just put D3 on the back burner is false. The people working on D3 keep working on D3 even if SC2 is coming out first. They don't just have one group of people that they shift from one game to another. They always have several projects in the works (many never get released check some old blizzcon panels)
I think they are further along in game development then some of you guys are giving them credit for. Hell, look at the playable demo at blizzcon. That "alpha" preview demo is more polished then many gold code games from other developers.
On a side note. Blizz said we can expect 2 Blizzard "titles" next year. What does blizzard consider a title? Do they consider expansions a title? From my understanding, a title is a full retail game, not an expansion to an already released title. IF thats the case, then the list of expected titles is pretty narrow
Both dates are eight days after my 19th and 20th birthdays respectively. I'm sticking to the idea that Diablo 3 will come out in October 2010.
For a 2010 release to be possible blizcon needs to show us a D3 that appears to be near completion on the surface of things.
Painting a canvas and creating a game are not comparable on that level.
The engine and developing the tools is the biggest step in the game development cycle.
Once this part of the game is done, the engine is doing what it's supposed to, the tools are there for other departments to create the levels, add the triggers for events, etc etc etc, then the content side of things goes considerably faster.
Of course it's somewhat relative as blizzard likes to give EVERYTHING upteen passes before they are happy.
Recently or, not so recently announced diablo2 patch 1.13 is rumored to have respec availability... test possibly to see what works, and how it will be exploited...??? This patch is going to have a a PTR (public test realm???I think) for beta testing. So in terms of time that means, when it gets to the PTR it will probably test for 2-3 weeks, and require at least another month or 2 after that to finish the patch up. So even if the beta testing realm came up today we looking at the patch being released early 2010. Now lets connect some dots, 1.13 early 2010, maybe being used to determine what works and doesn't of their 'new' ideas for d3. If some system they have doesn't work they are going to have to redo it in d3. This will all be taking place... after 1.13's release. Now assuming they have all the content done by Blizzcon 2009, which is doubtful, and presumptuous, it would be simply folding in the information they learn from the patch, beta testing, reworking the bugs out, possibly even a second beta test, marketing, picking a 'high sales time' to release the game etc. Therefore simply i see:
Blizzcon 2009
-lots of content has been developed
-early 2010, d2 1.13 comes out
-Quarter 2 2010, observations made, new plan of action for d3 laid out.
-late 2010, beta testing
-late 2010 - mid 2011 fixing bugs and polishing every aspect
-game released November 2011 right before the holiday season.
This is assuming they already have >70% of the content developed by Blizzcon 2009. (Next week)
This makes me sad, I want to play the game now; but it will be good if its perfect and it's worth the wait - I don't really have a choice.
That is the most illogical post I have ever seen.
You do understand that Diablo 3 is completely independent of 1.13 right? Bashiok already stated that even though 1.13 is incredibly delayed, that it doesn't take Diablo 3 off its schedule because they are completely separate teams.
Patch 1.13 was first intended to be released almost 6 months ago now, but slowed due to Battle.net, WoW, and StarCraft. This is because the team working on D2 is part of a team that works on all projects. Throw that into your rationalization.
Blizzard's Importance for each game
WoW/WoW patches & expansions = StarCraft 2 = Diablo 3 > WarCraft III = StarCraft/SC patches & expansions = Diablo2/ D2 patches & expansions.
1. Not everything is comparable on every level if you want it to make sense and be on topic.
2. Content development is pretty fast compared to designing and building a game engine.
3. Big scale? big scale compared to what exactly? An RPG with 4 acts and probably 30-35 hour main campaign isn't exactly out there as far as off the chart in size. (I'm assuming it will be 4 acts and roughly 30+hours game time). The biggest part of diablo 3 is in the numbers and databases behind all the art. The art part of things is fairly quick when you have a competent staff.
4. Debugging and testing isn't the same as them doing 10 iterations of the UI for example. The previous UI may work and doesn't have bugs, but they aren't happy with teh final look or results and decide to do another pass on it. Blizzard does this for like everything.
As for the other post about the 1.13 patch delaying or being testing grounds for respecs for D3. I doubt it very much. D2-D3 are two completely separate beasts.
I'm betting they want D3 out sooner than later, if I were dumping millions into a product I was wanting to sell, you can bet I would be wanting my product on store shelves before inflation becomes a serious issue for much of the world. Food for thought
I think Edwith has over thought it, and I really don't see a 2 year away delivery date unless exec's at Blizzard lost their mind. What they have shown so far suggests they are significantly into D3 at this point. You don't put up a playable demo at Blizzcon without being committed to finishing the project. The lost customer base and bad press from the backlash alone would far over shadow the expense of finishing D3.
With battlenet pushed back they can only develop gameplay for d3 multiplayer. It will take a considerable amount of time after that to completely, bug free, integrate d3 with open battlenet.
-Also I do know d2 and d3 are entirely separate beasts. However claiming complete independence between the 2 is ignorant. They directly relate as titles, the results of the mechanics (specifcally the new 'skill reallocate', and i'm sure they have more to try in 1.13) relate to d3. d2 makes an easy testbed. And even if it didn't if i ran blizzard I would want my patch team talking to d3 developers because communication is key. I'm sure the d2 team tried stuff that didnt work, they'll talk to and save the d3 time of trying it themselves. Not to mentions I am sure the content developers, and artists overlap.
So yes, d2 and d3 are actually much more related then most people, including Blizzard admit.
No. They are completely separate game and the only thing they have to talk about/know about is how they plan to have it in the game, and how it affects the game. They are planning D3 on a totally different level than D2, and the game is already so different that its not even really the same thing anymore.
There is no testing there. I'm sick of hearing it just because a few guys started saying it like a dumb rumor. D2 respec is NOT used as a test for D3. It makes no sense. They COULD look at the effect it has on the community, but that in no way increases "time" or whatever. It just means a bit more discussion, its hardly worth considering as a factor.
Also, the part about Battle.net makes no sense. Battle.net 2 will be out before it even matters anyway. Its not like they can't do anything while its not there? The whole GAME was probably built to use Bnet 2.0. Its not just an added support somewhere in the middle that they have to work with, but can't because Bnet is not ready... Thats just.. nonsense.
0% to 40% took around 4 years (2002-2007) considering that they had test many game engines to find the right one. Here it also includes the concept art, some environments and systems such as the rune system. The storyline is established and D3 authors are consulted to lay d3's story.
40% to 50% took 1 year (2007-2008) they designed the first 3 characters, took the decision to keep the barb. They also decided to announce the game during the summer.
50% to 65% took another 1 year (2008-2009). They finished making the 2 characters, 1st act is done and 2nd is pretty complete. 2 new systems are complete and will be announced at the 2009 blizzcon, my guess here is the gem system with the specific shapes and pvp system. Work has already begun on the 3rd act. The 2 final chars (archer/assassin+ fighter/mage) one of them is completely done and one still needs some touch ups.
65% to 85% one more year has passed (2009-2010). Here it goes faster since most of the systems are in place and work well. Act 3 is done and the only things remaining are the bosses and adventures. Pretty much all the voices and animations for act 1 and 2 are done. The art department are done with all the concept art and start to chose the ones they want to put in the collector's box :P. Monster design for act 1,2,3,4 is done and the death animations too. All the game's mechanics are complete and the same goes for the environments for act 1,2 and 3.
85% to 100% the last year (2010-2011). Act 4 is complete at last, this is the "coup de gr?ce" and unlike d2's act 4, this one is more spectacular than the 3 others before. The 5 characters are mildly balanced at first but after the beta (given at the 2009 blizzcon, in effect during october 2010 and ending in december 2010) they are well balanced. Systems are reevaluated and ameliorated. Starcraft 2 team will help Diablo 3' s team to set up the battle.net 2 system for the game and since they had experienced the online game mechanic before this part is done in no time. The voices are all done, the animations are done, the acts are done, mechanic and gamplay are up and working.... D3 is done!
So here's my prediction D3 will be done at 100% and released during Q1 or Q2 of 2011
But for the sake of argument, I will say the release is Q3 or Q4 of 2010. But percentages can change so rapidly, all you have to do is hit a snag and have to rework something and all of a sudden, 70% drops to 50%.