#1 Your remark about HC is folly - there is no RMAH in Hardcore.
#2 There is no way to predict the flow of items onto the RMAH. It will be a few months before enough people are farming Inferno to actual cause a drop in prices.
#3 I believe you are underestimating the demand for items. As long as there are people willing to purchase, the prices will not drop. I think that you are overestimating supply and underestimating demand, in essence.
Without duping/bots in Diablo 2... finding most of the best items in the game took a very, very long time. You could farm things like Shako, Stormshield, Viperskin, etc. pretty easy. But if you wanted something like Crown of Ages it would take a very, very long time... even if you had good MF gear.
Then we get into the idea of how easy it became to farm in Diablo 2. But the reason it became so easy was everyone had great gear because of the bots/duping.
I think they've thought this through. It's going to be damn hard to find the "best items", especially when they want to make rares have more potential... and even if the economy does start to get bogged down, they can adjust drop rates/add new items to the game.
This may be true, and in a perfect world there would not be bots or farmers -- however this isn't the case. These things will exist and water down the economy.
Quit a few things wrong with this as others have said but here are the main ones.
RMAH - If people spent real money on a item and it dissapeared people would flip ball sacks.
Rareity - Legit shit in D2 was hard as hell to find.
Replayability - The majority of people will never even touch inferno and the small percentage that does the majority of them will take months to complete it let alone farm it.
This may be true, and in a perfect world there would not be bots or farmers -- however this isn't the case. These things will exist and water down the economy.
As stated by many other posts in other topics (recently). The game is simply too complex for bots just to farm inferno, I think this is a reasonable assumption. The economy may be watered down for lower difficulties way down the road but hey all it will do is help casuals maybe play more or help gear up to possibly attempt inferno. As for farmers mixing in drop rates, uniqueness of items and their affixes, it's not low WoW where you can sit in one instance or spot for 10000 hours and keep getting the same item.
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Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
Without reliable drop % information and without information regarding the % of the player base that will play to Inferno, the numbers that will play beyond 6 months and (on top of that) the % of those that will actually use the RMAH, this is all conjecture and speculation.
As much as it is important to speculate and hypothesise, getting all bent out of shape over something that may realistically never be an issue (or one that if it does occur then Blizz may be able to remedy) just seems a whole waste of time, effort and concern
I'm not bent, im just theorizing what will happen. It's not going to stop me from playing the game.
Quit a few things wrong with this as others have said but here are the main ones.
RMAH - If people spent real money on a item and it dissapeared people would flip ball sacks.
Rareity - Legit shit in D2 was hard as hell to find.
Replayability - The majority of people will never even touch inferno and the small percentage that does the majority of them will take months to complete it let alone farm it.
1-Yes, some people would get upset, but it wouldn't stop people from buying. As i mentioned, despite people knowing d2 ladders reset, they still spend good amounts of cash on d2 items. They know the items will only be relevent for a few months max, yet they still go ahead and purchase them.
2-Again, while rarity in d2 was pretty obvious on "exceptional" items, the userbase was much smaller, and it was much harder to trade in that game. Having a search for a rare item a few clicks away plus millions hammering away farming content are going to drastically change things.
3-I know everyone levels at different speeds, but i forsee inferno being beaten by people within a week. Again, this obviously doesn't account for everyone, but I would say within a month or two max a good chunk will have this done.
1-Yes, some people would get upset, but it wouldn't stop people from buying. As i mentioned, despite people knowing d2 ladders reset, they still spend good amounts of cash on d2 items. They know the items will only be relevent for a few months max, yet they still go ahead and purchase them.
2-Again, while rarity in d2 was pretty obvious on "exceptional" items, the userbase was much smaller, and it was much harder to trade in that game. Having a search for a rare item a few clicks away plus millions hammering away farming content are going to drastically change things.
3-I know everyone levels at different speeds, but i forsee inferno being beaten by people within a week. Again, this obviously doesn't account for everyone, but I would say within a month or two max a good chunk will have this done.
1) They were converted to softcore so they didn't lose thier items, there is no RMAH in hardcore, this point shouldn't be discussed anymore.
2) Again casuals make up a large % of players there won't be millions, it's no different than before. Finding end game items or perfect states will be just as difficult as D2.
3) This is were many people are divided but for the sake of the game I hope your wrong, I'm expecting clearing in a month farming in multiple months and this would be the elite not even the Diablo vet.
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Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
the point of d3 is not getting level 99 like diablo 2, but rather kill Diablo inferno.
ladder are useless,
but anyway, the real ladder gonna be on site that tracks down the acheivment date of all player and make a ranking out of it.
1-Yes, some people would get upset, but it wouldn't stop people from buying. As i mentioned, despite people knowing d2 ladders reset, they still spend good amounts of cash on d2 items. They know the items will only be relevent for a few months max, yet they still go ahead and purchase them.
2-Again, while rarity in d2 was pretty obvious on "exceptional" items, the userbase was much smaller, and it was much harder to trade in that game. Having a search for a rare item a few clicks away plus millions hammering away farming content are going to drastically change things.
3-I know everyone levels at different speeds, but i forsee inferno being beaten by people within a week. Again, this obviously doesn't account for everyone, but I would say within a month or two max a good chunk will have this done.
1) They were converted to softcore so they didn't lose thier items, there is no RMAH in hardcore, this point shouldn't be discussed anymore.
2) Again casuals make up a large % of players there won't be millions, it's no different than before. Finding end game items or perfect states will be just as difficult as D2.
3) This is were many people are divided but for the sake of the game I hope your wrong, I'm expecting clearing in a month farming in multiple months and this would be the elite not even the Diablo vet.
Well to be fair, while there isn't a RMAH in hc, that won't people from buying and selling via 3rd party sites and forums.
what's a ladder reset? What's the point in playing a game, if all your progress eventually gets wiped? How would you feel about having all your WOW characters wiped? Or your bank account/house wiped and start from scratch?
Remember that in D3, after you kill a boss once, the best loot will come from rare champion packs which are random. The only real threat to the economy is dupes.
Doesn't mean a bot can't run around and clear an entire map unfortunately.
Well to be fair, while there isn't a RMAH in hc, that won't people from buying and selling via 3rd party sites and forums.
Hmm true enough but if people lost their items they full well knew too bad so sad if they bought from 3rd party sites. It would be different since these items are now done through blizzard; hence why I don't see it happening in softcore.
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Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
what's a ladder reset? What's the point in playing a game, if all your progress eventually gets wiped? How would you feel about having all your WOW characters wiped? Or your bank account/house wiped and start from scratch?
The game is about treasure hunting. Whats the point of playing when you already have the best stuff? They can't make a new expansion every year for 10+ years, so they just reset the ladder.
Remember that in D3, after you kill a boss once, the best loot will come from rare champion packs which are random. The only real threat to the economy is dupes.
Doesn't mean a bot can't run around and clear an entire map unfortunately.
Im no expert, but I imagine it would be pretty hard because you will need to use different tactics for different champoions. Plus you will need to pick up health globes at the right times. And there won't be a one button spam build for any of the classes.
True, but bots are rediculous nowadays. Back before when i was botting wow, they had bots that were able to join the random dungeon and fight the entire way throught. This included healing, dpsing, and tanking.
2. If blizzard isnt lying beyond understanding i dont see bots being able to do inferno or maybe even hell
3.Could the people stating the market will get flooded in months please list time spent farming in d2 and how many of the best items they have found. If they cant than stop making assumptions based on nothing.
Good points =D No doubt there WILL be bots, but I'm betting it will be a LONG time before they can beat even hell. There's also the other side of who cares if there ARE bots? The best items are purely luck, and without hacks or dupes it's just a small handful of more players compared to the millions that will be the player base.
what's a ladder reset? What's the point in playing a game, if all your progress eventually gets wiped? How would you feel about having all your WOW characters wiped? Or your bank account/house wiped and start from scratch?
The game is about treasure hunting. Whats the point of playing when you already have the best stuff? They can't make a new expansion every year for 10+ years, so they just reset the ladder.
Remember that in D3, after you kill a boss once, the best loot will come from rare champion packs which are random. The only real threat to the economy is dupes.
Doesn't mean a bot can't run around and clear an entire map unfortunately.
Im no expert, but I imagine it would be pretty hard because you will need to use different tactics for different champoions. Plus you will need to pick up health globes at the right times. And there won't be a one button spam build for any of the classes.
True, but bots are rediculous nowadays. Back before when i was botting wow, they had bots that were able to join the random dungeon and fight the entire way throught. This included healing, dpsing, and tanking.
That's because it's all the same. Every time. Even on bosses with some 'random' characteristics like where they are going to jump or cast a spell, it's still easy to write a script for it. Dungeons are very linear in WoW.
Now imagine the headache of making a script for;
Inferno pack of champions. Out of the huge pool of affixes, which 4 is chosen, and how to fight each combination. Add in the surrounding environment (outside and open? Or inside and narrow), and add in just what TYPE of monster spawned (and what their native abilites are).
Are they vampiric? Now you HAVE to not let them hit you. What to do when a Waller traps you and then teleports ontop of you? It's going to be soooo nuts =) I predict you'll have to make a small achievement in the field of AI to make a bot able of beating any inferno combo =D
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#2 There is no way to predict the flow of items onto the RMAH. It will be a few months before enough people are farming Inferno to actual cause a drop in prices.
#3 I believe you are underestimating the demand for items. As long as there are people willing to purchase, the prices will not drop. I think that you are overestimating supply and underestimating demand, in essence.
This may be true, and in a perfect world there would not be bots or farmers -- however this isn't the case. These things will exist and water down the economy.
RMAH - If people spent real money on a item and it dissapeared people would flip ball sacks.
Rareity - Legit shit in D2 was hard as hell to find.
Replayability - The majority of people will never even touch inferno and the small percentage that does the majority of them will take months to complete it let alone farm it.
As stated by many other posts in other topics (recently). The game is simply too complex for bots just to farm inferno, I think this is a reasonable assumption. The economy may be watered down for lower difficulties way down the road but hey all it will do is help casuals maybe play more or help gear up to possibly attempt inferno. As for farmers mixing in drop rates, uniqueness of items and their affixes, it's not low WoW where you can sit in one instance or spot for 10000 hours and keep getting the same item.
I'm not bent, im just theorizing what will happen. It's not going to stop me from playing the game.
The RMAH and ladder combined don't even make sense....
Xpacs will ensure D3 LAST FOR YEARS TO COME.
A QUADRILLION MAGIC FIND is worthless if you can't kill shit!
1-Yes, some people would get upset, but it wouldn't stop people from buying. As i mentioned, despite people knowing d2 ladders reset, they still spend good amounts of cash on d2 items. They know the items will only be relevent for a few months max, yet they still go ahead and purchase them.
2-Again, while rarity in d2 was pretty obvious on "exceptional" items, the userbase was much smaller, and it was much harder to trade in that game. Having a search for a rare item a few clicks away plus millions hammering away farming content are going to drastically change things.
3-I know everyone levels at different speeds, but i forsee inferno being beaten by people within a week. Again, this obviously doesn't account for everyone, but I would say within a month or two max a good chunk will have this done.
1) They were converted to softcore so they didn't lose thier items, there is no RMAH in hardcore, this point shouldn't be discussed anymore.
2) Again casuals make up a large % of players there won't be millions, it's no different than before. Finding end game items or perfect states will be just as difficult as D2.
3) This is were many people are divided but for the sake of the game I hope your wrong, I'm expecting clearing in a month farming in multiple months and this would be the elite not even the Diablo vet.
ladder are useless,
but anyway, the real ladder gonna be on site that tracks down the acheivment date of all player and make a ranking out of it.
Well to be fair, while there isn't a RMAH in hc, that won't people from buying and selling via 3rd party sites and forums.
An actual economist has data to base future predictions from.
Nobody has such data for D3 .
Doesn't mean a bot can't run around and clear an entire map unfortunately.
Hmm true enough but if people lost their items they full well knew too bad so sad if they bought from 3rd party sites. It would be different since these items are now done through blizzard; hence why I don't see it happening in softcore.
True, but bots are rediculous nowadays. Back before when i was botting wow, they had bots that were able to join the random dungeon and fight the entire way throught. This included healing, dpsing, and tanking.
Good points =D No doubt there WILL be bots, but I'm betting it will be a LONG time before they can beat even hell. There's also the other side of who cares if there ARE bots? The best items are purely luck, and without hacks or dupes it's just a small handful of more players compared to the millions that will be the player base.
That's because it's all the same. Every time. Even on bosses with some 'random' characteristics like where they are going to jump or cast a spell, it's still easy to write a script for it. Dungeons are very linear in WoW.
Now imagine the headache of making a script for;
Inferno pack of champions. Out of the huge pool of affixes, which 4 is chosen, and how to fight each combination. Add in the surrounding environment (outside and open? Or inside and narrow), and add in just what TYPE of monster spawned (and what their native abilites are).
Are they vampiric? Now you HAVE to not let them hit you. What to do when a Waller traps you and then teleports ontop of you? It's going to be soooo nuts =) I predict you'll have to make a small achievement in the field of AI to make a bot able of beating any inferno combo =D