Just like guessing the weight of a bull in the origin of this method or like guessing the number of jellybeans like in the video, trolly or uninformed guesses are within the bounds of the experiment.
In both cases people had a stake in being as near to the correct result as possible. For the bull they would win the meat and in most jellybean guessing games, the closest guess is expected to win the jar. But even with these incentives towards accuracy, unreasonable guesses would still be possible and accepted into the result - someone in the video guesses 50,000 jelly beans!
And just like people have some idea of the size of a bull, or the size of a jar and the jellybeans within, gamers have a sense of scale with regards to game development and release windows, so it is not out of their experience to make fair estimates. Which is part of how the Wisdom of the Crowds can provide surprisingly accurate results sometimes.
That being said I can remove troll posts and if I get some I will provide two sets of estimates, one with all submitted guesses and one excluding out-sized (aka troll) guesses.
Current Estimate (Counting all 9 entries): June 20, 2022 (20/06/2022)
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Just like guessing the weight of a bull in the origin of this method or like guessing the number of jellybeans like in the video, trolly or uninformed guesses are within the bounds of the experiment.
In both cases people had a stake in being as near to the correct result as possible. For the bull they would win the meat and in most jellybean guessing games, the closest guess is expected to win the jar. But even with these incentives towards accuracy, unreasonable guesses would still be possible and accepted into the result - someone in the video guesses 50,000 jelly beans!
And just like people have some idea of the size of a bull, or the size of a jar and the jellybeans within, gamers have a sense of scale with regards to game development and release windows, so it is not out of their experience to make fair estimates. Which is part of how the Wisdom of the Crowds can provide surprisingly accurate results sometimes.
That being said I can remove troll posts and if I get some I will provide two sets of estimates, one with all submitted guesses and one excluding out-sized (aka troll) guesses.
Current Estimate (Counting all 9 entries): June 20, 2022 (20/06/2022)