RNG can be a fickle mistress at times. What some of you describe here is a streak of bad luck. And yes, it can happen. In fact, it *must* happen in a system that is truly random. Imagine it like being struck by a lightning. It's super unlikely and therefore only happens to very few people every year. However, it happens to *some* people. And since there are literally millions of people playing this game, every bad occurrence of miserable RNG is ultimately bound to happen to someone at some point. In terms of getting 15 consecutive tails in coin flips, there was actually once a nice discussion about that in a NYT magazine article:
If you have large quantities of data, or instances that clearly hint at some of the information being wrong, state them clearly. I'll try to get other people to verify this then. This is not because I don't trust those who post other data, but simply because this chart has now been around for almost a year and the data in it has been confirmed by thousands of players accumulating millions of data points. Reporting on 20 bad coin flips is not indicating that the data is wrong - quite the contrary. It's rather telling us the data is correct and the "chances" in there (e.g., chance to get a second key) are just that - chances, subject to RNG. Please keep that in mind. Thanks!
Okay, I've changed the chart and included a note to reflect that. I hope other people can confirm that and possibly also find out what's up with caches on expert and other difficulties. T1 is 3+3, that's what I know for sure.
Also, if anyone can keep track of keywarden drop rates - that would be great. I got the feeling the drop rate is buffed, but haven't heard anyone else say that. But I got 100% machines on every kill (though I only killed about 5 or so, didn't really farm any and just did one round for the season journey).
Thank you for that explanation. Hmm that would make sense but I'm sure I was 70 at the time. Was running my first bounty runs on solo HC. Ran all 5 acts and got 3 materials per.
For sanity Ill retest and report back.
Thanks - it would also be nice if you could pay extra attention to see from which of the cache the 1 material (instead of 2) came from. This is really strange, can't find this anywhere else, and the numbers have been like they are in the chart for over half a year now...
@Solmyr77: Yeah, I think this was even information from a bluepost (otherwise there would be an asterisk next to it).
Hi Bagstone, I wanted to let you know I did a set of bounties yesterday on Hard difficulty, and they rewarded 3 materials in total per act, bonus bag included. I think it was 2 in regular cache bag, 1 in the bonus bag. Perhaps you could represent this in a different way on the chart for next patch?
Are you sure you were level 70? Because I'm quite sure that it's 4 if you were level 70, I just checked some other reports. The bonus cache is always the equivalent of the difficulty, no matter the level - but you only get 1 cache material from every cache before level 70. So for example, for doing a level 69 bounty run on hard yields 1 cache material and 2 bonus cache materials for a total of three; a level 69 bounty run on T1 yields 4 (1 plus 3 from bonus) and so on.
Just kidding, no update. Well, I changed the version number - but the numbers all remain the same, no changes from 2.4 to 2.4.1. Please, if you see anyone still using the old URL (Imgur) with outdated information make sure to point them to the static URL.
Uber organ percent looks very weird to me, as if torment 1 is better than torment 2. I'm still not sure how it works for torment 2. One guaranteed organ and two additional chances of 10%? Please edit it to 100% +2 x 10% to make it more clear.
That's what it looked like before (look at links in my previous posts in this thread) and the overwhelming majority of people here and on Reddit said they prefer the current layout. I might add a line that explains this in a future update.
If anyone wants to keep track of their stats I'd be much obliged; although all of those numbers have been consolidated thanks to all the contributions of the community, and they're all based on large numbers, maybe there are some changes in 2.4 that we still missed.
Hm.... it seems like we're not getting an official version of this in 2.4, but Blizzard officials are using this chart as their reference. Strange. (See this thread)
So - the only change I can think of would be that TX caches now drop 5 instead of 4 materials. Anything else? Did anything at all change in 2.4 regarding this chart or is it really only this small change to keep it up-to-date for 2.4?
@jaffarius: Sorry, but I've done quite a few T7 ubers since and I've tried to look for anyone else to confirm this, and I've never heard of 3 organ drops at T7 ubers. Not gonna touch that for now, unless I find more people backing that up.
What info are you really hoping to zone in on? I am happy to run whatever.
Basically anything with an asterisk, especially the Keywarden and Ubers (the latter except for T7 and T10 for which I think I have so much data I can even remove the asterisk, but T8, T9, and the difficulties below T7 are interesting). Problem is that for those we need a huge amount of data at this point to warrant a change (I'm talking 50+ at least), so it should just be from "natural progression".
@Hldemi: Hm, this is one of the points where there's lots of data (because so many people farm TX), so I'm hesitant to change that unless you have more consolidated data (i.e., exact numbers and not some "maybe guesstimate". Also, there's always bad luck streaks... I've encountered them myself. But I'll keep an eye on that.
I've done about 15 uber-runs on T10 (or TX) and every time we get 2x2 + 2x3 organs (2 organs from ubers 1 & 2 and 3 organs from ubers 3 & 4). So I'd say the chances are 250% for TX
Is it possible to update the graphic with the general legendary drop rate percentages per difficulty level, as indicated here?
Additionally, the Greater Rift Key drop rate section of the wiki does not match this graphic (T6 shows 100% in graphic but 80% on Wiki).
Thank you very much for putting all of this together!
I don't know, to be honest. I took a lot of information from those sources and it turned out to be complete bogus (for example, the rift key drop rate in that Wiki is plain wrong - the correct figures can even be seen in-game, as others have reported in this thread). But I might add it at some point, it looks like it could be at least not completely off as some other data I had added earlier. Thanks.
Edit: Ah, whatever. Got some new data so an update was due anyways, so also added this, why not.
RNG can be a fickle mistress at times. What some of you describe here is a streak of bad luck. And yes, it can happen. In fact, it *must* happen in a system that is truly random. Imagine it like being struck by a lightning. It's super unlikely and therefore only happens to very few people every year. However, it happens to *some* people. And since there are literally millions of people playing this game, every bad occurrence of miserable RNG is ultimately bound to happen to someone at some point. In terms of getting 15 consecutive tails in coin flips, there was actually once a nice discussion about that in a NYT magazine article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/magazine/12FOB-IdeaLab-t.html?_r=0
If you have large quantities of data, or instances that clearly hint at some of the information being wrong, state them clearly. I'll try to get other people to verify this then. This is not because I don't trust those who post other data, but simply because this chart has now been around for almost a year and the data in it has been confirmed by thousands of players accumulating millions of data points. Reporting on 20 bad coin flips is not indicating that the data is wrong - quite the contrary. It's rather telling us the data is correct and the "chances" in there (e.g., chance to get a second key) are just that - chances, subject to RNG. Please keep that in mind. Thanks!
Cool, thanks! Yeah I already thought that it's just RNG for me. Will leave that as is then.
Okay, I've changed the chart and included a note to reflect that. I hope other people can confirm that and possibly also find out what's up with caches on expert and other difficulties. T1 is 3+3, that's what I know for sure.
Also, if anyone can keep track of keywarden drop rates - that would be great. I got the feeling the drop rate is buffed, but haven't heard anyone else say that. But I got 100% machines on every kill (though I only killed about 5 or so, didn't really farm any and just did one round for the season journey).
Thanks - it would also be nice if you could pay extra attention to see from which of the cache the 1 material (instead of 2) came from. This is really strange, can't find this anywhere else, and the numbers have been like they are in the chart for over half a year now...
@Solmyr77: Yeah, I think this was even information from a bluepost (otherwise there would be an asterisk next to it).
Update:
http://d3resource.com/difficulties.png
Just kidding, no update. Well, I changed the version number - but the numbers all remain the same, no changes from 2.4 to 2.4.1. Please, if you see anyone still using the old URL (Imgur) with outdated information make sure to point them to the static URL.
http://d3resource.com/difficulties.png
Is updated now (well, it was only one small change - TX bounties now drop 5 materials per cache).
http://d3resource.com/difficulties-s4.png will be the archived old overview.
If anyone wants to keep track of their stats I'd be much obliged; although all of those numbers have been consolidated thanks to all the contributions of the community, and they're all based on large numbers, maybe there are some changes in 2.4 that we still missed.
Nice - thanks for the data and confirmation, MouseyPounds!
Still no changes other than the T10 bounty cache rewards in 2.4, I guess? So I'll just update it when the patch goes live.
Hm.... it seems like we're not getting an official version of this in 2.4, but Blizzard officials are using this chart as their reference. Strange. (See this thread)
So - the only change I can think of would be that TX caches now drop 5 instead of 4 materials. Anything else? Did anything at all change in 2.4 regarding this chart or is it really only this small change to keep it up-to-date for 2.4?
@jaffarius: Sorry, but I've done quite a few T7 ubers since and I've tried to look for anyone else to confirm this, and I've never heard of 3 organ drops at T7 ubers. Not gonna touch that for now, unless I find more people backing that up.
@Hldemi: Hm, this is one of the points where there's lots of data (because so many people farm TX), so I'm hesitant to change that unless you have more consolidated data (i.e., exact numbers and not some "maybe guesstimate". Also, there's always bad luck streaks... I've encountered them myself. But I'll keep an eye on that.
Edit: Ah, whatever. Got some new data so an update was due anyways, so also added this, why not.
The other format is still available though - http://d3resource.com/difficulties-v2.png