If you are wondering what the chances to re-enchant a certain affix on a certain item, here is what the probability is, read this post.
How-to-use: Put your item in the enchant slot at the mystic. Click the question mark and count how many possible affixes the affix you want to replace can be enchanted into. The percentage listed is probability that you get the desired affix (out of the number of affixes) in a certain number of attempts or less.
Example: I had a pair of rare boots and wanted to re-roll Armor into Arcane Orb damage%. I counted a total if 19 affixes which Armor could be re-rolled into. I noted that after 7 attempts, the probability will be higher than 50% and decided to try and use my Death's Breath on getting Arcane Orb, which I then got. I might never have gotten my desired affix, but at least I knew, that it was quite likely that I might eventually re-roll Arcane Orb on my boots.
Disclaimer: This assumes, that all affixes have the same probability to roll, and a bunch of other stuff we don't know about
After 7 attempts, the probability would still be 10,25% on the next try. :/
Exactly, the probability is the same each time (not sure if you are trolling?). The percentage reads the probability of getting the affix in N attempts or less. Obviously there is a better chance in 7 attempts or less than in 6 attempts or less.
Pertaining to the example: If the probability of getting it in 7 or less had been like 5% I would likely never have tried, but ~50% seemed reasonable given the crafting mats I have available.
This is all nice to know... I got the affix I wanted in the first try, but at the lowest possible value, it took me then 5 tries to get it again at a slightly higher value... and it will probably take me another 25 tries to get it perfect... or one try... this is as bad as gambling... I'd rather pay that lady more to get what I want, and if I want it to get better I have to pay more, and more... Looks to me that the mystic doesnt know what she is doing
Isn't 1 attempt with 20 affixes 2/20? Why is it 9.75% and not 10%?
No, and let me give an example:
Let's say you are trying to roll crit chance (CC) amongst 20 possible affixes.
There are 20x20 = 400 possible combinations of possible outcomes of what the Mystic will let your choose from.
19 will be [some undesired affix and CC]
19 will be [CC and some undesired affix ],
Then there is the possibility [CC and CC] (since you get the same affix twice) which is only 1 out of 400.
In total there are 19 + 19 + 1 = 39 out of 400 combinations that will give you CC.
That gives the probability 39/400 = 9.75%, and not 10%. I hope you follow me.
Not sure if I'm reading this wrong, but I think you made a mistake. 1 attempt with 20 affixes is 5% (1/20)
I think you forgot, that you are presented with TWO new affixes to choose from (from which none, one or both might be what you are looking for). If it was only ONE new affix, you are of course correct.
Not sure if I'm reading this wrong, but I think you made a mistake. 1 attempt with 20 affixes is 5% (1/20)
I think you forgot, that you are presented with TWO new affixes to choose from (from which none, one or both might be what you are looking for). If it was only ONE new affix, you are of course correct.
andersx, I applaud your trying to help on the subject of affix re-rolling but the empirical evidence says your charts of percentages are way too generous. First we do know you can roll Vitality twice when trying to replace an original Vitality affix. Secondly anyone who has done hundreds of rerolls by now knows the game weighs certain states more favorable than others. I spent 22 forgotten souls on a 2300dps Azurewrath before I abandoned the socket affix and salvaged it. Unfortunately we may never know the breakdown as this group of Blizzard employees aren't sharing the same way they were back in 2012.
Secondly anyone who has done hundreds of rerolls by now knows the game weighs certain states more favorable than others. I spent 22 forgotten souls on a 2300dps Azurewrath before I abandoned the socket affix and salvaged it.
Has "anyone who has done hundreds of rerolls" recorded all of the results and made the information available for analysis? Or do we just have the anecdote of you being unlucky with a few rolls on one weapon?
Nope, you should see that u can reroll the same affix once or even twice whenever you are re-enchanting.
EDIT: Also, me and my friends have found some affixes to me much rarer than others, like Crit DMG on jewellery, takes a LOT of tries to roll, at least for us, when the regular Stats (VIT and Main Stat) roll really often.
This chart is bang on, assuming all affixes have the same probability. That's a hypothesis that might need some testing, although if it's not true, that would seem kinda dickish on Blizzard's part, because there's no suggestion in the game that that's the case. Obviously, we need hard data, not "I once...", because people are really good at remembering bad luck (because it's expensive), and lousy at remembering good luck (because we expect it).
I find it curious you list anything other than the 1-affix column as having a probability of 100%, for this is surly never the case. It may be very very very *VERY* close to 100%, but should never actually quite /be/ 100%.
I find it curious you list anything other than the 1-affix column as having a probability of 100%, for this is surly never the case. It may be very very very *VERY* close to 100%, but should never actually quite /be/ 100%.
I think we can safely chalk that up to rounding, although it'd be nice to know what the precision was.
I find it curious you list anything other than the 1-affix column as having a probability of 100%, for this is surly never the case. It may be very very very *VERY* close to 100%, but should never actually quite /be/ 100%.
andersx, I applaud your trying to help on the subject of affix re-rolling but the empirical evidence says your charts of percentages are way too generous. First we do know you can roll Vitality twice when trying to replace an original Vitality affix. Secondly anyone who has done hundreds of rerolls by now knows the game weighs certain states more favorable than others. I spent 22 forgotten souls on a 2300dps Azurewrath before I abandoned the socket affix and salvaged it. Unfortunately we may never know the breakdown as this group of Blizzard employees aren't sharing the same way they were back in 2012.
I don't know how many possible affixes you had to choose from. But chances of this not happening in 22 rolls is probably in the ballpark of 1 in 250. So not very unlikely that a person experiences this. Even if everything has the same likelihood and everything is completely fair! RNG sucks from time to time.
How-to-use: Put your item in the enchant slot at the mystic. Click the question mark and count how many possible affixes the affix you want to replace can be enchanted into. The percentage listed is probability that you get the desired affix (out of the number of affixes) in a certain number of attempts or less.
Example: I had a pair of rare boots and wanted to re-roll Armor into Arcane Orb damage%. I counted a total if 19 affixes which Armor could be re-rolled into. I noted that after 7 attempts, the probability will be higher than 50% and decided to try and use my Death's Breath on getting Arcane Orb, which I then got.
I might never have gotten my desired affix, but at least I knew, that it was quite likely that I might eventually re-roll Arcane Orb on my boots.
Disclaimer: This assumes, that all affixes have the same probability to roll, and a bunch of other stuff we don't know about
Pertaining to the example: If the probability of getting it in 7 or less had been like 5% I would likely never have tried, but ~50% seemed reasonable given the crafting mats I have available.
its the same as roling a dice 6 times and you want the chance for getting a 6 ONCE! only once!
its 1/6 for each throw : so on two throws it will be 1/6 +1/6
Whereas - and here is whats confusing you : the chance to roll a 6 to times in two throws is
1/6*1/6 = 1/36
actually its additive in this case. not multiplicative
Let's say you are trying to roll crit chance (CC) amongst 20 possible affixes.
There are 20x20 = 400 possible combinations of possible outcomes of what the Mystic will let your choose from.
19 will be [some undesired affix and CC]
19 will be [CC and some undesired affix ],
Then there is the possibility [CC and CC] (since you get the same affix twice) which is only 1 out of 400.
In total there are 19 + 19 + 1 = 39 out of 400 combinations that will give you CC.
That gives the probability 39/400 = 9.75%, and not 10%. I hope you follow me.
Care to show me the leaves and explain how that 39/400 turns into 348/400 after 19 attempts?
EDIT: Also, me and my friends have found some affixes to me much rarer than others, like Crit DMG on jewellery, takes a LOT of tries to roll, at least for us, when the regular Stats (VIT and Main Stat) roll really often.
On a related note, I just got an Azurewrath and lucky me got a socket first try! http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/andersx-2898/hero/6272847