Theorycrafting on...crafting.

  • #21
    Quote from phuzi0n

    >1100 dps means "greater than 1100 dps" not less than.


    Bazinga!

    ... I think we're getting slightly off-topic here (though I would really really really like to get such a weapon for that money, no kidding). More on topic: the old recipes are just that - old. If I could, I would even unlearn all of them, as it's annoying to have to scroll through all of them to get to my Archon Int stuff.
  • #22
    Quote from Turtel

    What the hell are you talking about? :D
    Hes showing you on the screenshot that there's NO weapon greater than 1100dps on AH for 100m with those stats and his remark was sarcastic, not in your favor.

    No i don't need to drop lifesteal or IAS, you can roll 1100+ dps with just 2 affixes.

    Oh I see, he doesn't know how to shop... >60 CHD is not the same as ~60CHD ("about" 60 CHD) and by limiting the price you're ignoring all bid auctions (many under 50m).

    I don't understand what you mean though because you seem to be contradicting yourself and saying that you don't need to drop IAS yet you do in order to get all the other stats. Yes you can trade the IAS for main stat and stay over 1100 dps but it still drops the price vs one that has IAS (thus ~10% higher dps) instead.

    Even we suppose that you're right and a godly rolled craft can be worth 1 billion or more, it doesn't matter how godly a perfect roll can be if the odds are so astronomically low that nobody will ever get it in even 10 years. All that matters is the risk vs reward and nobody but blizzard can analyze exactly how much the rewards are.
  • #23
    Quote from phuzi0n

    Oh I see, he doesn't know how to shop... >60 CHD is not the same as ~60CHD ("about" 60 CHD) and by limiting the price you're ignoring all bid auctions (many under 50m).



    I have to drop the CD to 55 before i see any 1100ish dps weapons for under 100mill (99.999.999 actually ^^), and i have to drop down to 43 CD, before i see another one at around 1100dps.

    If i want 2.5+ in life steal i am boned.
  • #24
    Quote from phuzi0n

    Oh I see, he doesn't know how to shop... >60 CHD is not the same as ~60CHD ("about" 60 CHD) and by limiting the price you're ignoring all bid auctions (many under 50m).

    I don't understand what you mean though because you seem to be contradicting yourself and saying that you don't need to drop IAS yet you do in order to get all the other stats. Yes you can trade the IAS for main stat and stay over 1100 dps but it still drops the price vs one that has IAS (thus ~10% higher dps) instead.

    Even we suppose that you're right and a godly rolled craft can be worth 1 billion or more, it doesn't matter how godly a perfect roll can be if the odds are so astronomically low that nobody will ever get it in even 10 years. All that matters is the risk vs reward and nobody but blizzard can analyze exactly how much the rewards are.


    Come on, if it would be so common like you claim it to be, atleast some weapons would apear in the search. Besides, they don't even with lower CHD. Of course you can win some nice bids or snipe low buyouts, that applies to everything on AH. (Okay, maybe if you play on US the prices are much different, so forget this)

    I don't see the contradiction. What i said ( what i meant) was you can get 'black' dmg + dmg% for 1100 dps, then you still have 4 affixes for primary +socket + CHD and even LS or whatever stat makes it expensive. And IAS is not better than primary, atleast in majority of cases. Also, a higher dps with no primary is worse than lower dps with a primary. Thats pretty vague, because i didn't use any numbers, but you get my point.

    Well yes, i did say, more that once, that the chances for such weapons are extremely low, but the pure fact that they can be rolled is enough - to me atleast - to not make those crafts as cheap as Shaggy suggested. 500g? If you spend 85mils on crafting them you get 170k weapons. I would take that risk any day, just to craft one 100mil weapon and get my 85mils back from AH, but having a chance to craft a billion weapon. (<-yes, that's an enormous timesink, but ppl would do it)
    Obviously, after a few weeks, so many ppl would come up with great crafts that the prices would drop, making it not worth to craft again. The result would be a few ppl gaining some gold and the bar of average weapons being put higher.

    Why is it that only blizzard can analyze the risk vs reward? The affix database is there to see. Go check all affixes and affix ranges that can be rolled, choose the 6 you want with minimal ranges you want and do the math. The prices or item values are dictated by the playerbase, supply/demand - blizzard has nothing to do with this between patches.
  • #25
    Make all crafts cheaper, make them all BoA, and screw anyone who just wants to make a buck. I'm sorry if this sounds crude and insensitive, but I'm getting a bit tired of seeing good ideas being shot down due to "NOOOOEZ, I WANTS TO SELL STUFF!!".
  • #26
    Quote from maka

    Make all crafts cheaper, make them all BoA, and screw anyone who just wants to make a buck. I'm sorry if this sounds crude and insensitive, but I'm getting a bit tired of seeing good ideas being shot down due to "NOOOOEZ, I WANTS TO SELL STUFF!!".


    Couldn't agree more.

    Craft you gear to play the game - farm for rares and legendary items that are better than crafts to sell. Good cycle to me. D3 has become too much of "i want to find awesome loot to make $$$" Not necessarily a bad thing, but when you rolled a BoA item that was godly, you got sad just a bit that you couldn't sell it for billions.

    My two cents.
  • #27
    i think you´re overlooking quite a large segment of the playerbase, that likes to play with friends, and exhange gear back and forth helping each other.. Would suck for us, if the entire crafting system limited to BoA items..

    not a gamebreaker tho.. but would be a bit of salt in a wound
  • #28
    Quote from maka

    Make all crafts cheaper, make them all BoA, and screw anyone who just wants to make a buck. I'm sorry if this sounds crude and insensitive, but I'm getting a bit tired of seeing good ideas being shot down due to "NOOOOEZ, I WANTS TO SELL STUFF!!".


    They don't even have to make it BoA.

    The chances of crafting a 100-million gold weapon are pretty goddamned low. To put it into perspective I have yet to find a 1100+ DPS 1her. Hell, I haven't even found a single 1000+ DPS 1her.

    The problems is that roughly 170k in fees & mats per weapon is just brutally out-of-line with what the recipes are actually producing. The value of the items has decayed drastically but the cost to make them has remained the same. That's why people aren't using them.

    Plus, lowering the crafting cost would only serve to assist self-found players. I see no reason why they can't drastically cut the gold cost to craft. It's not even going to have any tangible effect on the economy, honestly. Most people are still going to gravitate to the 1.0.7 patterns because they produce BiS, or near-BiS, items and, therefore, are a much more worthwhile pursuit.

    If they slash the price to craft non-1.0.7 items people still will largely ignore them because it will still be very difficult to make gold with that as your primary vehicle.
    p450 :: 92.2k EK :: 2.54m TK
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  • #29
    Quote from maka

    Make all crafts cheaper, make them all BoA, and screw anyone who just wants to make a buck. I'm sorry if this sounds crude and insensitive, but I'm getting a bit tired of seeing good ideas being shot down due to "NOOOOEZ, I WANTS TO SELL STUFF!!".


    Even though i do like to make a buck on the side while playing, i quite like the BoA crafts we have today and would like it if there was more crafting or anything that would make players like you happier and more rewarded. I just don't know how to do that, when the AH already exists and majority of players is usin.... depending on it. It has to be a process that happens over time.
  • #30
    Quote from Turtel

    Why is it that only blizzard can analyze the risk vs reward? The affix database is there to see. Go check all affixes and affix ranges that can be rolled, choose the 6 you want with minimal ranges you want and do the math. The prices or item values are dictated by the playerbase, supply/demand - blizzard has nothing to do with this between patches.

    Because only blizzard knows the exact odds of an affix rolling (it may be equal or it may not) and only blizzard has a database of every transaction that has ever occurred. They can look at a transaction, see what affixes the item has, calculate the odds of those affixes rolling, and then do the same for every other transaction until they determine how much the crafted items are selling for vs how much they cost.
  • #31
    Quote from phuzi0n

    Because only blizzard knows the exact odds of an affix rolling (it may be equal or it may not) and only blizzard has a database of every transaction that has ever occurred. They can look at a transaction, see what affixes the item has, calculate the odds of those affixes rolling, and then do the same for every other transaction until they determine how much the crafted items are selling for vs how much they cost.


    Are you serious? What does it matter how much something sold for X weeks or months ago. The prices are constantly fluctuating, changing after almost every patch, depending on the amount of players actively playing , value of gold etc.

    If you want to put a value on an item you will only use data from previous days or weeks (not more), its going to be a range, not a precise number and it's going to be true for a limited amount of time so it has to be re-done often.

    What if demand raises for a week?
    What if the supply triples? Can happen with these randomly generated items.
    Sure, you can make predictions and yes the odds of an affix combination can be calculated, but in the end it doesn't matter that much because ppl who gamble go against the odds anyway. There are people crafting weapons right now, with high costs. Lowering it gives them higher chances for profit and attracts more. Not saying that's a bad thing, the craftign price just needs to be the correct amount. My point this whole time was, it cannot be super low.
  • #32
    Quote from Turtel

    Quote from phuzi0n

    Because only blizzard knows the exact odds of an affix rolling (it may be equal or it may not) and only blizzard has a database of every transaction that has ever occurred. They can look at a transaction, see what affixes the item has, calculate the odds of those affixes rolling, and then do the same for every other transaction until they determine how much the crafted items are selling for vs how much they cost.


    Are you serious? What does it matter how much something sold for X weeks or months ago. The prices are constantly fluctuating, changing after almost every patch, depending on the amount of players actively playing , value of gold etc.

    If you want to put a value on an item you will only use data from previous days or weeks (not more), its going to be a range, not a precise number and it's going to be true for a limited amount of time.

    And they have all those stats too you know. They can factor in whatever they want to and keep the cost a little higher than their estimated reward.

    In case you forgot, you asked why blizzard is the only one that can analyze risk vs reward and suggested that players could. If you don't estimate the reward from historical data then how else? The only other way is to pull numbers out of thin air and pretend they're real.

    Quote from Turtel

    Why is it that only blizzard can analyze the risk vs reward? The affix database is there to see. Go check all affixes and affix ranges that can be rolled, choose the 6 you want with minimal ranges you want and do the math. The prices or item values are dictated by the playerbase, supply/demand - blizzard has nothing to do with this between patches.
  • #33
    Quote from phuzi0n

    And they have all those stats too you know. They can factor in whatever they want to and keep the cost a little higher than their estimated reward.

    In case you forgot, you asked why blizzard is the only one that can analyze risk vs reward and suggested that players could. If you don't estimate the reward from historical data then how else? The only other way is to pull numbers out of thin air and pretend they're real.



    Yeah i did ask, it's just that you sounded like they have to check every transaction ever made with the given criteria, which sounded silly. I guess i just misunderstood there.

    Players can calculate the odds of a specific weapon rolling. The value of it? Well it's not going to be precise, but you can get a pretty good idea about prices if you keep checking the AH daily. I mean, you're not going to be off by 40% or something ridiculous.
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