I worry about this just the same I worry about the rarity of lvl 7 gems, which not only will be rare, but may be completely useless once you "identify" it.
I just hope the game doesn't need like the OP said, years to get one good item. But I think all we could do yet is speculate since drop rate will only be known when the game is out. I hope that they increase drops if they turn out to be ridiculously hard to get so you would have to play everyday for years to get some good gear.
Cherub a minor correction to your quick formula - it's divide by 16 not 8(you divide by 4 twice so it is multiplicative not additive ;))
As to the gem discussion... I think level 6 or 7 is the sweet spot... anywhere from a few months to a year to get a 'perfect' gem seems reasonable. And I'm really looking forward to the gem grind - it'll be a nice goal to work towards.
Cherub a minor correction to your quick formula - it's divide by 16 not 8(you divide by 4 twice so it is multiplicative not additive ;))
As to the gem discussion... I think level 6 or 7 is the sweet spot... anywhere from a few months to a year to get a 'perfect' gem seems reasonable. And I'm really looking forward to the gem grind - it'll be a nice goal to work towards.
Honestly, for all we know, we'll be seeing very high gems drop in Inferno. Given the fact that they've kind of steered us into thinking that having the best gems isn't going to catapult you from "suck" to "elite", I'd sure hope so.
As mentioned on the official forums, according to my calculations it will take 3.37 years to get one level 14 gem. This is under a few conditions:
You get a level 5 gem every 15 minutes (or 4 every hour)
Gems still have a 3:1 transformation system
You play on average 4 hours a day
Trading is not taken into consideration because everybody wants at least 1 level 14 gem.
It takes:
--> 1,594,323 lvl 1 Chipped gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
--> _.177,147 lvl 3 Regular gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
--> _._59,049 lvl 4 Flawless gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
--> _._19,683 lvl 5 Perfect gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
Collecting a lot of the same type of gems would take a considerable amount of time, but you can always go to the Jeweler & have him combine the lesser gems to your upgraded gem to free space from your stash.
Here is a simple computation at this rate, if you will play an average of 4 hours a day & you pick up 4 gems every hour (it is safe to assume, you'll get an average of 1 gem every 15 minutes),
we can then put that into an equation:
--> (4hrs/day) X (4gems/hr) = 16 gems per day on average
if there are 365 days per year, then our new equation will be:
--> (365days/yr) X (16gems/day) = 5,840 gems per year
our working equation would then be:
--> (59,049 lvl 4 Flawless gems/1 Radiant Star) X (1yr/5,840gems) = 10.11113 years/1 Radiant Star
or
--> (19,683 lvl 5 Perfect gems/1 Radiant Star) X (1yr/5,840gems) = 3.37038 years/1 Radiant Star
But these are all just assumptions on the basis that you'll only be playing for 4 hours per day & that you'll only find 4 gems per hour, which is not really the case since the game generates stuff randomly. So, no, I don't think it will take you three years to a decade to get 1 Radiant Star.
Sometimes, you might find yourself getting 10 or more gems in 4 hours time or 30 gems in 6 hours of play time. So playing the game is really unpredictable, you just need to hope for the best randomized drops.
Besides, this task of upgrading gems to the 14th level for the added bonuses to your stats is a great undertaking not intended for casual players.
Taking these things into consideration, you also have to realize that, if you're going to be a casual player in Diablo III, you're really not obliged to attain the 14th level of a gem.
Since, casual players from Diablo II got to use Radiant gems, which only takes (3^5=) 243 Chipped Gems to make.
Now, how many days would that take exactly [using a probability equation [3^(x-1)]/8, where x is the gem lvl req'd. & 8 is on assumption you get around 4 gems every hour when you play 4 hours a day on average].
--> Getting lvl 5 gems = (3^4)/8 = 10 days more or less
Considering weapons & armor in Diablo II wherein you can socket 2 to 4 gems in total, then it takes an average player about a month to accomplish this.
Now, if you'll play more, then you get more chances of getting more gems dropping.
But these are all just assumptions on the basis that you'll only be playing for 4 hours per day & that you'll only find 4 gems per hour, which is not really the case since the game generates stuff randomly. So, no, I don't think it will take you a decade to get 1 Radiant Hexa-gem.
Sometimes, you might find yourself getting 10 or more gems in 4 hours time or 30 gems in 6 hours of play time. So playing the game is really unpredictable, you just need to hope for the best randomized drops.
Man, there may be some time you are going to get more than 4 gems/hour, but there will surely be much more time that you would get no gems in 1 hour (remember, it is a lvl5 gem), so, assuming a gem drop rate is safe even with the randomized drops.
And I don't care if your rate is wrong, it is not absurdly wrong, and it gives an estimate of TEN YEARS playing the same game 4 hours a day WITHOUT SKIPPING A DAY to get ONE GEM. If you take this time and actually work and invest all the money you could very well get a million dollars for the same time. I don't care if the rate is double, or even 10 times, or even 100 times greater, it is still amazingly hard to get ONE GEM.
As I said before, we can only speculate, but if there are going to be some drops that you actually should play the game as a part-time job for years they will change that, or it will be very bad.
Idk, I feel it's too early to really even speculate about things like this. Even if you assume you will get 4 gems per hour (on average), and assuming they are all the same type of gem so you can actually upgrade 3 to the next level, you are still missing a big piece of the puzzle. The odds will be same that the other 5 types of gem that will have the exact same drop rate, and you will find the same amount of those in the same hour (on average). So if that is the case then in effect you can trade those (also assuming they all have the same trade value), for the gem you are trying to create a level 14 of. So you in effect have 24 gems per hour dropping, which will reduce the time it takes to get a level 14 to 1/6 of that, which is what?.. about 6 and a half months, give or take?
Furthermore we have no idea of whether gems will be attained solely by drops. Perhaps there is a quest that will give you a level 10 gem as a reward? Perhaps there are random quests where you can pick up a bag of a couple dozen gems? Since gems are stackable now, maybe they will drop like stacks of keys dropped in D2? Maybe you can get 5 at a time? Maybe in later parts of the game you get get a hundred low level gems in a single drop? As mentioned earlier, maybe gem shrines will be more common? Maybe gem shrines will randomly upgrade a gem 1-3 levels instead of just 1? If you wait to use a gem shrine on a level 13 gem, with the original formula of the OP. you would save yourself over a year of grinding. Although that is all assuming shrines are in D3, I though so, but I can't remember. Also, perhaps gem will be a salvageable item you can get when you break down other items. Perhaps from top of the line items you can get a high level gem (since it's not really a drop, it might not follow the current only up to level 5 drops mechanic).
Anyway, I think there are just too many factors still unknown that will determine how long this will take. I think beta will give us a somewhat better idea (particularly if people track how often they get a gem during beta) of how often gem drops will be, and if there are other ways to attain them than just finding in drops. Time will tell, but I wouldn't freak out about a hypothetical mathematics that are saying it will take 3.37 years (the assumptions of the variables being hypothetical, not the algebra :P)
It sounds like this will be a good market to get into early game (when I use this term, I'm talking end game, but within a few months of release)
Demand early game will naturally be for runes and items, but given gems can be socketed into almost every item, they will continually be demanded. There is no reason for people not to want gems, and given there will not be any level 14 gems until at least a few months into the game.
You would think, as time goes on, there are more gems in the game, demand for lower quality gems would decline, as all players will be improving their gem ranks.
Therefore, it would be a good strategy to sell gems at an early premium, then buy higher rank gems later on.
I worry about this just the same I worry about the rarity of lvl 7 gems, which not only will be rare, but may be completely useless once you "identify" it.
I worry about this just the same I worry about the rarity of lvl 7 gems, which not only will be rare, but may be completely useless once you "identify" it.
What do you mean by identify it?
Socketing it in an skill, which would define its color and affixes.
I worry about this just the same I worry about the rarity of lvl 7 gems, which not only will be rare, but may be completely useless once you "identify" it.
What do you mean by identify it?
Socketing it in an skill, which would define its color and affixes.
Isn't that for runes? ^^
OT! I'd like it to be somewhat tough to get these babies! I'd hate to see everyone kicking high level gems around after 6 months. 12 months even!!
oops, that's right, I wrote gems, but thought runes.
is something I had not thought of, but seems extremely realistic. The only thing that could change this is how fast level 14 gems leave the market for good. I assume many will live in the gear of good traders, several will live in the bodies of HC characters, but who knows? That's really an interesting thought.
If HC can use the same gold AH as SC players are using, then the system won't work. The gold AH of SC and HC need to be seperate.
IMO they need to be the same since HC players cant use the RMAH so they will put all their good stuff on the GAH so SC players can get good stuff without worrying all the good stuff will only be on the RMAH.
Thats not good.
I was really hoping they would be the same.
Im very worried now as a SC the only way i will get good stuff is if i use the RMAH.
Well, the separation is mainly to not fuck up for the hardcore characters. If they had access to the SC AH then gear would just be so much easier to obtain. Good gear in hardcore will be super valuable - like it should be imho. Hardcore should stay hardcore.
And apart from the RMAH there will still be regular trading if you are looking for specific SC items. For example you could offer another piece of gear or X level gem for what you want and someone who would sell that item on the AH might trade it to you instead. Also, remember that you can sell your gold on the RMAH. So if there's something on the RMAH you really really want you can just take your gold and put it on the RMAH to "convert" it into e-balance for your account. Prices on the RMAH will be convertible to a gold price, which of course will differ depending on the value of Gold vs e-balance at the time. Rare items may be very expensive, but that would still be true if there was only a gold AH.
And this is running a bit off topic.. sorry for that
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I just hope the game doesn't need like the OP said, years to get one good item. But I think all we could do yet is speculate since drop rate will only be known when the game is out. I hope that they increase drops if they turn out to be ridiculously hard to get so you would have to play everyday for years to get some good gear.
As to the gem discussion... I think level 6 or 7 is the sweet spot... anywhere from a few months to a year to get a 'perfect' gem seems reasonable. And I'm really looking forward to the gem grind - it'll be a nice goal to work towards.
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--> 1,594,323 lvl 1 Chipped gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
--> _.177,147 lvl 3 Regular gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
--> _._59,049 lvl 4 Flawless gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
--> _._19,683 lvl 5 Perfect gems to make one lvl 14 Radiant Star
Collecting a lot of the same type of gems would take a considerable amount of time, but you can always go to the Jeweler & have him combine the lesser gems to your upgraded gem to free space from your stash.
Here is a simple computation at this rate, if you will play an average of 4 hours a day & you pick up 4 gems every hour (it is safe to assume, you'll get an average of 1 gem every 15 minutes),
we can then put that into an equation:
--> (4hrs/day) X (4gems/hr) = 16 gems per day on average
if there are 365 days per year, then our new equation will be:
--> (365days/yr) X (16gems/day) = 5,840 gems per year
our working equation would then be:
--> (59,049 lvl 4 Flawless gems/1 Radiant Star) X (1yr/5,840gems) = 10.11113 years/1 Radiant Star
or
--> (19,683 lvl 5 Perfect gems/1 Radiant Star) X (1yr/5,840gems) = 3.37038 years/1 Radiant Star
But these are all just assumptions on the basis that you'll only be playing for 4 hours per day & that you'll only find 4 gems per hour, which is not really the case since the game generates stuff randomly. So, no, I don't think it will take you three years to a decade to get 1 Radiant Star.
Sometimes, you might find yourself getting 10 or more gems in 4 hours time or 30 gems in 6 hours of play time. So playing the game is really unpredictable, you just need to hope for the best randomized drops.
Besides, this task of upgrading gems to the 14th level for the added bonuses to your stats is a great undertaking not intended for casual players.
Taking these things into consideration, you also have to realize that, if you're going to be a casual player in Diablo III, you're really not obliged to attain the 14th level of a gem.
Since, casual players from Diablo II got to use Radiant gems, which only takes (3^5=) 243 Chipped Gems to make.
Now, how many days would that take exactly [using a probability equation [3^(x-1)]/8, where x is the gem lvl req'd. & 8 is on assumption you get around 4 gems every hour when you play 4 hours a day on average].
--> Getting lvl 5 gems = (3^4)/8 = 10 days more or less
Considering weapons & armor in Diablo II wherein you can socket 2 to 4 gems in total, then it takes an average player about a month to accomplish this.
Now, if you'll play more, then you get more chances of getting more gems dropping.
What do you think about Blizzard's new line-up for the new types of gems, do you like it?
Give us your opinion, vote on the poll (posted August 19): http://www.diablofans.com/topic/27315-new-gem-progression-chart/
.
My PvP build would be different from these 13.
Check out the leaked Demon Hunter skill list here from Blizzard China: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://tiny.cc/10p16
Diablo III is $50; MSI GT683DXR-423US Gaming Laptop is $1,599; Playing Diablo III w/ my wife & 2 brothers is PRICELESS
Man, there may be some time you are going to get more than 4 gems/hour, but there will surely be much more time that you would get no gems in 1 hour (remember, it is a lvl5 gem), so, assuming a gem drop rate is safe even with the randomized drops.
And I don't care if your rate is wrong, it is not absurdly wrong, and it gives an estimate of TEN YEARS playing the same game 4 hours a day WITHOUT SKIPPING A DAY to get ONE GEM. If you take this time and actually work and invest all the money you could very well get a million dollars for the same time. I don't care if the rate is double, or even 10 times, or even 100 times greater, it is still amazingly hard to get ONE GEM.
As I said before, we can only speculate, but if there are going to be some drops that you actually should play the game as a part-time job for years they will change that, or it will be very bad.
Furthermore we have no idea of whether gems will be attained solely by drops. Perhaps there is a quest that will give you a level 10 gem as a reward? Perhaps there are random quests where you can pick up a bag of a couple dozen gems? Since gems are stackable now, maybe they will drop like stacks of keys dropped in D2? Maybe you can get 5 at a time? Maybe in later parts of the game you get get a hundred low level gems in a single drop? As mentioned earlier, maybe gem shrines will be more common? Maybe gem shrines will randomly upgrade a gem 1-3 levels instead of just 1? If you wait to use a gem shrine on a level 13 gem, with the original formula of the OP. you would save yourself over a year of grinding. Although that is all assuming shrines are in D3, I though so, but I can't remember. Also, perhaps gem will be a salvageable item you can get when you break down other items. Perhaps from top of the line items you can get a high level gem (since it's not really a drop, it might not follow the current only up to level 5 drops mechanic).
Anyway, I think there are just too many factors still unknown that will determine how long this will take. I think beta will give us a somewhat better idea (particularly if people track how often they get a gem during beta) of how often gem drops will be, and if there are other ways to attain them than just finding in drops. Time will tell, but I wouldn't freak out about a hypothetical mathematics that are saying it will take 3.37 years (the assumptions of the variables being hypothetical, not the algebra :P)
Just my thoughts on the issue
Demand early game will naturally be for runes and items, but given gems can be socketed into almost every item, they will continually be demanded. There is no reason for people not to want gems, and given there will not be any level 14 gems until at least a few months into the game.
You would think, as time goes on, there are more gems in the game, demand for lower quality gems would decline, as all players will be improving their gem ranks.
Therefore, it would be a good strategy to sell gems at an early premium, then buy higher rank gems later on.
Socketing it in an skill, which would define its color and affixes.
oops, that's right, I wrote gems, but thought runes.
sorry.
This...
is something I had not thought of, but seems extremely realistic. The only thing that could change this is how fast level 14 gems leave the market for good. I assume many will live in the gear of good traders, several will live in the bodies of HC characters, but who knows? That's really an interesting thought.
You'd think higher rank runes/gems would be worth more (in terms of both gold and real cash)
IMO they need to be the same since HC players cant use the RMAH so they will put all their good stuff on the GAH so SC players can get good stuff without worrying all the good stuff will only be on the RMAH.
False. Hardcore will have their own gold AH.
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/services/auction-house/gameplay#q3
I was really hoping they would be the same.
Im very worried now as a SC the only way i will get good stuff is if i use the RMAH.
Well, the separation is mainly to not fuck up for the hardcore characters. If they had access to the SC AH then gear would just be so much easier to obtain. Good gear in hardcore will be super valuable - like it should be imho. Hardcore should stay hardcore.
And apart from the RMAH there will still be regular trading if you are looking for specific SC items. For example you could offer another piece of gear or X level gem for what you want and someone who would sell that item on the AH might trade it to you instead. Also, remember that you can sell your gold on the RMAH. So if there's something on the RMAH you really really want you can just take your gold and put it on the RMAH to "convert" it into e-balance for your account. Prices on the RMAH will be convertible to a gold price, which of course will differ depending on the value of Gold vs e-balance at the time. Rare items may be very expensive, but that would still be true if there was only a gold AH.
And this is running a bit off topic.. sorry for that