Sounds like a typical rant on only forum to me. But in all fairness I see nothing to ban for. Same things has happened to me to many times. Run with friends and they get good loot and leg. and I get crap. But I just call it bad luck and roll on.
since people are having trouble understanding how chance versus averages works...
You have a 10% chance per MP level to get the key... so 9 outta 10 you wont get it is the average .. but there is not promise run it 10 times and you get it, since the chance is reset every single attempt...
You do not gain reduce your chance of not getting it by running it more, you maintain the exact same chance..
Example: MP5 act 1 key run
Run# 1 - no key (50% loser column)
2 - no key (50% loser)
3 - "
4 - "
Ad infinitum... it does not matter how many times you run it, if there is a chance to lose that is a constant.. your personal average may not be 50% but the chance is still 50%..
Coin toss is a great example.. the US Quarter has a 50.9% chance to land heads down due to a slight difference in weight.. but if you flip it 100 times i can bet you there will be more then 50 times it lands tails down...that is chance.
you cannot demand a drop just cause you ran something many times, i am well over 300k mob kills and close to 40k elites, have i got a single 100mil item? nope, now my friend though (who has more MF then me) has got 1 good pair of ice climbers.. that it.. he has half my kill rate but he gets almost no good loots.
That is chance, you can get MF and Paragon to tweak chance in your favor but there is always that chance you will not win.
since people are having trouble understanding how chance versus averages works...
You have a 10% chance per MP level to get the key... so 9 outta 10 you wont get it is the average .. but there is not promise run it 10 times and you get it, since the chance is reset every single attempt...
You do not gain reduce your chance of not getting it by running it more, you maintain the exact same chance..
Example: MP5 act 1 key run
Run# 1 - no key (50% loser column)
2 - no key (50% loser)
3 - "
4 - "
Ad infinitum... it does not matter how many times you run it, if there is a chance to lose that is a constant.. your personal average may not be 50% but the chance is still 50%..
Exactly, and here's another thing many people fail to understand:
If you are farming on MP1, your chances to get a key drop are 10% for the first run. And for the second run. And the third. And so on...
Even if you made 20 runs without a key drop, the 21st run still gives you a 10% chance. It does not increase "because once every ten runs I should get a key". Perfect example for chance versus average. (And a perfect example why it just *feels* more rewarding to farm keys on higher levels.. tough runs on high MP are painful, but feel better than ten easy runs without a drop)
If I was a mod, I too would have banned you. Sorry, but forums are not democratic, they are dictorial and when you step on the mods toes, you get tossed. Your tone in that post is bad and you shhould have attempted a little more tact.
Play scratch offs. Those have usually a 1:38056 odds of winning. So according to your theory buy 4 and you will win. Doesn't always happen that way. As long as the total run of all the sums offers those odds then that number is correct.
I was forum banned for "harassment" for this post. The entire thread was deleted, read for yourself and decide if I'm harassing or Blizzard is hiding the truth. I should've worded it without calling bliz incompetent or liars I suppose and it would've been more difficult to delete and ban but man do they piss me off.
Thread Title:
RNG is a lie. Bliz = liars or incompetent
Last night mp6, 3 key wardens in a row no key. Tonight mp5 4 key wardens in a row no key, so yes I'm aggravated as I write this. These are successively 6.4% and 6.25% odds of happening. We all have "that guy" as a friend who has gotten 10-20 100m+ set pieces who have lower MF and are lower paragon than you, while you've never gotten anything worth 50m. I have one HC WD friend who got 3 pieces of his Zunimassa's set in in a matter of a few days around paragon 20. We're talking a WD getting 3 of 5 of the set specifically designed for his class. The odds against that are astronomically bad -- as in so bad that the only way it could have happened was other than random. I'll also add that the same WD just today got 3 set pieces on HC for other classes worth >100m each. He also farms mp0 and has managed to get keys at a rate far higher than 5%.
So, how is loot distributed? Who knows, but Blizzard's insistence that it is RNG is laughable. Fanboys who post RNG is RNG when anybody says anything different remind me of lemmings that jump off the cliff behind the million that just committed suicide. Who knows maybe their blind loyalty earns them +1% MF every time they lick Blizzard's boots and I get another -1% (which would explain why my loot drops are so atrocious). There is some variable somewhere that makes some accounts more prone to good loot then others. Either Bliz doesn't know which makes them incompetent, or they know and aren't telling which makes them liars. Blizzard has lost all credibility by letting their lead designer make his favorite class twice as good as any other, so them telling us that it is RNG carries no weight in my mind.
BTW, anybody want one of my 6 hellracks or ivory towers? I've no shortage of those items..
EDIT: btw, Barb friend of mine just had 2 Ivory Towers drop within 15 yards of each other. They are IDENTICAL. RNG huh? BS! Quit lying bliz and start explaining
Don't bother dude, and don't get frustrated by this. Anybody with more that 1 cubic centimeter of brain knows that this game is everything but random! And just consider that 99% of population is thinking inside the box, not because they want to, partially they are born that way, partially their brains are washed. Blizzard is one BIG MONEYMAKING company. And for them, profit is everything. Loyalty is not that important anymore cause they can launch Diablo 4 next year and everybody will buy it (me too), and so on...
These things happen all the time for everyone:
Couple of days after patch everybody gets insane drops. Why? Attract people.
Me personally, and my ingame friends, got about 9 keys out of 10 attempts from warden on MP3-4 those days. Random? No. Percentage-wise, no Fucking logic.
As the time passes by, drops are less and less. Now, I get about 3 out of 10 on MP5-7. ???
People that are lower lvl and with lower MF get better legendary drops. Yes. Attract them to play more. And as they play more, they become more addicted. Psychology, and numbers like "3% on this and that" makes them think that every paragon lvl helps them with better loot. Crap. When I was lower lvl (now I'm para lvl 83) I got way more legendaries then I get now, and the quality was way better. And I'm not talking just about me here, ALL my ingame friends (around 20-30 of them).
I studied economy (2 years of statistics and psychology classes), so I don't let Blizzard and these spammers on forums make idiot of me.
Ivory Tower, Gladiator Gauntlets... Give me a break! Just useless legendaries that drop all the time, made on purpose, so kids can react "Wow, another legendary!".
About duping items... Another great way for Blizzard to make more money is a short period of time. Don't be fooled. They make money with Diablo 3 according to quantity, not quality. 2 euros transaction, they get 1 euro. 100 euros transaction, they get 1 euro. See the point?
In a few months kids will get bored with Diablo, hardcore gamers will be so much frustrated about what is happening with dupes and low drops, etc. And what will Blizzard do??? Give us another patch, with some cool new stuff, better drops for a couple of days... And, voila! We all play Diablo again!
I can just tell that they are doing GREAT JOB. In their favor, of course.
So don't bother about what people are replying to you here. They are either brainless kids, or blizzard fans and employees.
And don't forget: we are talking about serious amount of money Blizzard is making with this game. So, expect everything.
You cannot change the world by yourself, and fight their fight. You'll always lose.
Cheers mate
P.S. And 1 more thing. Of course they will ban you from forum and prevent you from facing the facts. What did you expect? Less people know what is going on, more money in their pockets ;]
anyway: you got banned for a bad language. you call ME a liar on MY forums, which are dedicated to MY game, and present a so called "truth" as if you looked behind a curtain and saw everything? i kick your ass out of my forum. live with it.
oh, RNG in computer science terms isn't really random. at least you can't compare it to a thrown dice for example. but it is much more random than a guy who just picks a number,
Essentially you're mad because you bought 500 lottery tickets, but the guy who won the lottery only bought 1.
That's the wonderful thing about probability. Even when you tip the odds in your favor, it doesn't guarantee a win!
Essentially you're mad because you bought 500 lottery tickets, but the guy who won the lottery only bought 1.
That's the wonderful thing about probability. Even when you tip the odds in your favor, it doesn't guarantee a win!
Not mad dude, I'm just enjoying the game my way, playing with friends. I have a nice time playing it.
I'm just facing the facts, and who has the problem with that, and who is ignorant or stupid, it's still his problem.
Essentially you're mad because you bought 500 lottery tickets, but the guy who won the lottery only bought 1.
That's the wonderful thing about probability. Even when you tip the odds in your favor, it doesn't guarantee a win!
Not mad dude, I'm just enjoying the game my way, playing with friends. I have a nice time playing it. I'm just facing the facts, and who has the problem with that, and who is ignorant or stupid, it's still his problem.
Yeah, facts that you have no way to substantiate...
anyway: you got banned for a bad language. you call ME a liar on MY forums, which are dedicated to MY game, and present a so called "truth" as if you looked behind a curtain and saw everything? i kick your ass out of my forum. live with it.
oh, RNG in computer science terms isn't really random. at least you can't compare it to a thrown dice for example. but it is much more random than a guy who just picks a number,
First, I'm not desperate to search friends on internet and forums. If that's your case, your problem.
Second, I haven't called you a liar. As a matter of fact, I haven't even written anything to you. Put your glasses on and see on which post I replyed.
Third, If this is YOUR forum and YOUR game, you wouldn't write something like this. But you are probably just a bad-mannered kid.
Oh my... Yes, Blizzard is actively monitoring every player and rewards them with hidden magic find! You're absolutely right, Blizzard clearly treats you personally as an lower class player because of your excessive negative feedback. Therefor, Blizzard punished you with the "dupe-drop" of an Ivory Tower.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The little boat gently drifted across the pond exactly the way a bowling ball wouldn’t...
people dont seem to realize that there is no such thing as true random in programming afaik
in regards to u saying that 2 identical items dropped within 15m of eachother.. there has been multiple video's on you tube with this showcased.. it is a known bug
all said i feel your pain though.. i did 8 key wardens last week mp4-mp7 with friends and guess what.. not ONE key.. also that same day i did mp7 uber bosses and killed 6 bosses.. and not a single organ till the 5th.. broken random is what it is.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
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You have a 10% chance per MP level to get the key... so 9 outta 10 you wont get it is the average .. but there is not promise run it 10 times and you get it, since the chance is reset every single attempt...
You do not gain reduce your chance of not getting it by running it more, you maintain the exact same chance..
Example: MP5 act 1 key run
Run# 1 - no key (50% loser column)
2 - no key (50% loser)
3 - "
4 - "
Ad infinitum... it does not matter how many times you run it, if there is a chance to lose that is a constant.. your personal average may not be 50% but the chance is still 50%..
Coin toss is a great example.. the US Quarter has a 50.9% chance to land heads down due to a slight difference in weight.. but if you flip it 100 times i can bet you there will be more then 50 times it lands tails down...that is chance.
you cannot demand a drop just cause you ran something many times, i am well over 300k mob kills and close to 40k elites, have i got a single 100mil item? nope, now my friend though (who has more MF then me) has got 1 good pair of ice climbers.. that it.. he has half my kill rate but he gets almost no good loots.
That is chance, you can get MF and Paragon to tweak chance in your favor but there is always that chance you will not win.
I got 5 keys on MP1 yesterday. Please don't report me for cheating.
Exactly, and here's another thing many people fail to understand:
If you are farming on MP1, your chances to get a key drop are 10% for the first run. And for the second run. And the third. And so on...
Even if you made 20 runs without a key drop, the 21st run still gives you a 10% chance. It does not increase "because once every ten runs I should get a key". Perfect example for chance versus average. (And a perfect example why it just *feels* more rewarding to farm keys on higher levels.. tough runs on high MP are painful, but feel better than ten easy runs without a drop)
Don't bother dude, and don't get frustrated by this. Anybody with more that 1 cubic centimeter of brain knows that this game is everything but random! And just consider that 99% of population is thinking inside the box, not because they want to, partially they are born that way, partially their brains are washed. Blizzard is one BIG MONEYMAKING company. And for them, profit is everything. Loyalty is not that important anymore cause they can launch Diablo 4 next year and everybody will buy it (me too), and so on...
These things happen all the time for everyone:
Couple of days after patch everybody gets insane drops. Why? Attract people.
Me personally, and my ingame friends, got about 9 keys out of 10 attempts from warden on MP3-4 those days. Random? No. Percentage-wise, no Fucking logic.
As the time passes by, drops are less and less. Now, I get about 3 out of 10 on MP5-7. ???
People that are lower lvl and with lower MF get better legendary drops. Yes. Attract them to play more. And as they play more, they become more addicted. Psychology, and numbers like "3% on this and that" makes them think that every paragon lvl helps them with better loot. Crap. When I was lower lvl (now I'm para lvl 83) I got way more legendaries then I get now, and the quality was way better. And I'm not talking just about me here, ALL my ingame friends (around 20-30 of them).
I studied economy (2 years of statistics and psychology classes), so I don't let Blizzard and these spammers on forums make idiot of me.
Ivory Tower, Gladiator Gauntlets... Give me a break! Just useless legendaries that drop all the time, made on purpose, so kids can react "Wow, another legendary!".
About duping items... Another great way for Blizzard to make more money is a short period of time. Don't be fooled. They make money with Diablo 3 according to quantity, not quality. 2 euros transaction, they get 1 euro. 100 euros transaction, they get 1 euro. See the point?
In a few months kids will get bored with Diablo, hardcore gamers will be so much frustrated about what is happening with dupes and low drops, etc. And what will Blizzard do??? Give us another patch, with some cool new stuff, better drops for a couple of days... And, voila! We all play Diablo again!
I can just tell that they are doing GREAT JOB. In their favor, of course.
So don't bother about what people are replying to you here. They are either brainless kids, or blizzard fans and employees.
And don't forget: we are talking about serious amount of money Blizzard is making with this game. So, expect everything.
You cannot change the world by yourself, and fight their fight. You'll always lose.
Cheers mate
P.S. And 1 more thing. Of course they will ban you from forum and prevent you from facing the facts. What did you expect? Less people know what is going on, more money in their pockets ;]
if i wwere them iw ould have banned your game account too
anyway: you got banned for a bad language. you call ME a liar on MY forums, which are dedicated to MY game, and present a so called "truth" as if you looked behind a curtain and saw everything? i kick your ass out of my forum. live with it.
oh, RNG in computer science terms isn't really random. at least you can't compare it to a thrown dice for example. but it is much more random than a guy who just picks a number,
That's the wonderful thing about probability. Even when you tip the odds in your favor, it doesn't guarantee a win!
Not mad dude, I'm just enjoying the game my way, playing with friends. I have a nice time playing it.
I'm just facing the facts, and who has the problem with that, and who is ignorant or stupid, it's still his problem.
First, I'm not desperate to search friends on internet and forums. If that's your case, your problem.
Second, I haven't called you a liar. As a matter of fact, I haven't even written anything to you. Put your glasses on and see on which post I replyed.
Third, If this is YOUR forum and YOUR game, you wouldn't write something like this. But you are probably just a bad-mannered kid.
LOCK IT!
Where's my loot, Blizz!?! It's a conspiracy!!! They like everyone but me!
in regards to u saying that 2 identical items dropped within 15m of eachother.. there has been multiple video's on you tube with this showcased.. it is a known bug
all said i feel your pain though.. i did 8 key wardens last week mp4-mp7 with friends and guess what.. not ONE key.. also that same day i did mp7 uber bosses and killed 6 bosses.. and not a single organ till the 5th.. broken random is what it is.