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posted a message on Understand probability better; drop rate statistics
Quote from Maragia
Quote from Ryude

As you can see, even though they are independent events we can increase our chances by simply playing more.

That's wrong. Chance (P(X)) and expected value (E(X)) are not the same!
That's why it's called a drop rate. Over a very large number of tries, it will ultimately be correct. This means that if you play enough, you will find a legendary (more than one we hope).
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Understand probability better; drop rate statistics
Probability of finding a legendary increases the more you play. This is simple to understand, everyone knows this. You may say, "Yes, but the chances don't change!" I disagree.

Let's say the chance to find a legendary is 0.02% per monster kill. This is theoretical for demonstration only.

The chance to not find a legendary is 99.98% per monster kill. Let's see how this changes after killing 500 white monsters.

1 - (0.9998)500 = 0.9048283
So the chance to NOT find a legendary after 500 kills is 90.48283%. The chance to find a legendary is 9.52827%.

However that only tells us the chance for finding legendaries from normal white monsters. What if we wanted to include elite packs?

Let's assume that elite packs have a 0.5% chance to drop a legendary per kill. In a rift, we can assume that there are at least 20 elite packs.

1 - (0.9998)500(0.995)20 = 0.8587234
So the chance to not find a legendary after 500 white kills and 20 elite packs is 85.87234%. The chance to find a legendary is 14.23876%.

As you can see, even though they are independent events we can increase our chances by simply playing more.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Massive XP nerf?
Seems faster too me. Torment 2 full game clears, I get a level once an hour or so. Currently paragon 195. About 300+ million xp per level.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Show Off Your Loot 2.0 Legendaries!

Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Legendary found per hour.
Quote from Mini641

I'm farming Depths 2 and Bridge runs on T3 solo and i find maybe a lego an hour.

I kind of wish Blizz would buff Res chests and the amount of items elite packs drop. its kind of underwhelming to kill a pack or clear an entire dungeon and open a res and see 1-3 items.
All part of the plan to make RoS more appealing. Before 2.0.1, you could find 6-8 legendaries per hour farming MP6-7. Now, you're lucky if you get 1.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Legendary found per hour.
On Normal I got about 2 per hour. Then I played Torment 3 and get about 1 per hour. So it looks like the increased magic find from Torment doesn't overcome the fact that monsters are much harder to kill.

On the bright side, I did get about 5x the amount of xp when playing T3.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on 1b+ exp/hr solo. CotA exp too high?
The problem is you don't really get good experience anywhere until Torment 2+, so it's kind of mandatory to be well geared in order to level efficiently. Also Monk and Wizard are so far ahead of every other class when it comes to damage output it's not even funny. My Wizard has 110k DPS and can do torment 3 CotA. My Demon Hunter is at 250k DPS and can only do Torment 1.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Crafting is great now! (except weapons!)
Quote from Bagstone

I'm not so sure anymore, actually. I think if you find a really nice game-breaking legendary, you might hold on to that for quite some time in RoS as well. 2.0.1 really exceeded my expectations, I've found an alternative to my Witching Hour which I didn't during beta. I've replaced plenty of gear already, sooner than I expected. The only thing that level 70 gear adds to 2.0.1 gear is about 100-150 higher main stats, and maybe some higher allres (like what, ~10 more?). Many affixes, such as elemental damage, CC, CHD, IAS, roll the same on 60 and 70, and the legendary affixes are the same as well.

Contrary to what I had thought earlier, I do believe it is absolutely worth it to play now already. If you manage to get rid of life steal and craft/find items to raise your toughness significantly, you will have a super smooth transition to RoS.
You know, I have been finding some "build changing" legendaries. Even though it was a net loss of dps, it allowed me to spec in a way that was more fun. I found the Bow that makes my attacks pierce 2 times, then I found another legendary that has a chance to suck nearby monsters to my target on hit. Now I just need the quiver that makes bolas explode instantly and it'll be awesome.

But like I said, it is still a loss of dps and I am still stuck at Torment 2. I went from 248k DPS to 209k DPS.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Crafting is great now! (except weapons!)
Quote from Bagstone
Quote from Ryude

Crafting is still limited to iLvl 62, except for Shoulders/Chest/Gloves/Bracers/Amulet.
There is no "iLvl 62" anymore, or 61 or 63 for that matter. It's all just level 60 now, the only difference is how many affixes a recipe can roll. The guaranteed main stat affix of the 1.0.7 recipes also isn't that big of a deal anymore since smart loot works for crafting as well. Haven't done thorough testing how much better the 1.0.7 recipes compared to regular 6 affix recipes are, but I've crafted some nice pants - something that was impossible pre-2.0.1. I guess the 1.0.7 recipes just grant you a bit higher main stat than other recipes, that's it.
Hm, I guess you're right. Blizzard must have changed that due to the imminent release of RoS. As soon as you play RoS you'll probably instantly upgrade every piece anyway. And honestly, the only point to play D3 right now is to prepare for the expansion via Paragon levels or amassing gems/gold/materials.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on Crafting is great now! (except weapons!)
Crafting is still limited to iLvl 62, except for Shoulders/Chest/Gloves/Bracers/Amulet.
Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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posted a message on How I lost \$17,400 in a day on diablo3

To be fair, this is the same thing that would happen to you no matter what online game you were playing. You don't own the game, you can be banned for any reason, and they do not have to inform you of their reasons. I don't agree with this, but I understand the ToS that I accepted.

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Who am I kidding? RoS will release, I'll find stuff to bitch about, but ultimately I'll play the crap out of it. I'm still playing D3, even though I find it boring. Why? I don't freaking know, it's just addictive for some reason. Like a bad relationship where you keep telling yourself you're gonna leave her, but you're still there 6 years later.
Posted in: News & Announcements
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Quote from Mehsiah

I was hoping to hear about ladder news from Blizzcon on whether I want to keep going for Paragon 1000 or not. With news that nothing is going on with it at the moment I'll prob stick with going for 1000 since Im around the 600 mark now.

Yeah man, I realized last month that they weren't going to implement ladder. It's just one of those things they do to draw in people. Remember team deathmatch?
Posted in: News & Announcements
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Trifecta is being looked at. To quote Wyatt, "We don't want to take away trifecta, instead we want to provide you with more options." It's not always necessarily about making the most commonly used stats worse, but the ones that are less utilized better.

The whole point of playing a game like Diablo is so that you can reiterate your character's stats, skill points, and item build to become more and more efficient. Trifecta isn't the problem as they said, the problem is that no other stat comes close to crit dmg, crit chance, and attack speed.

One way they could make Trifecta less required is to offer skills or passives that scale much higher with non-crit damage. Example: Perhaps have a rune that makes Bola Shot deals additional damage equal to 500% of your total poison damage, but the trade off would be that it cannot crit.
Posted in: News & Announcements
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Watch RoS release without ladders, all those people who stopped leveling paragon gonna be mad.
Posted in: News & Announcements