Updated for 2.06 to reflect weight changes for set items. Also changed the ratio of class specific items to regular items to 1/3 (or 1:2)
Please note that I have only changed some numbers this time around. Some of the texts might be outdated to the effect that some of those items are simply not interesting anymore.
Updated for 2.05 assuming that Kadala uses the same weightings that were datamined recently
Disclaimer: Calculated all shard amounts with an assumed chance for a legendary of 2%.
Hey guys,
if you're like me, you always wonder, on which item type you should spend your 500 Blood Shards. So after this wonderful datamined thread (http://www.diablofans.com/forums/diablo-iii-general-forums/diablo-iii-general-discussion/87504-legendary-roll-weights-check-what-the-chances-are) has appeared, I decided to make a list of how many shards would be required on average for the interesting legendaries.
This is with our Wizard class in mind. Note that in some cases, it's better to gamble with another class because that class has fewer legendary options in that slot, but this doesn't apply to Wizards (at least for those items I will cover).
I will sort this by item type and say a few words about each item, like why we want it and how important it is. All of those items have BiS potential for their respective builds.
For the calculations I have used the cost to gamble an item of the required type, an expected 2% chance to get a legendary (not confirmed, taken from the thread that collects gambling results), some modifiers, which I will name where I have used them and of course the values from the weighting thread.
Statistical disclaimer:
All those numbers are average numbers. You can get your items much sooner or much later because of the almighty RNG.
edit: Please forgive me that I didn't account for the fact, that only ~85% of all item rolls use the smart loot system. So all numbers should be a little higher, however the relation between items wouldn't change.
edit2: See Mirrorball for an example calculation
Let's start:
Chest
Cindercoat
Which builds? all fire builds
How important? mandatory if you use an AP spender as your main attack
Expected shards to get one? 5000
Tal Rasha's Relentless Pursuit
Which builds? all non-fire builds
How important? not required, just BiS because of 5 potential primary stats
Expected shards to get one? 2500
Vyr's Astonishing Aura
Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
How important? you need three pieces, though this might not be the best choice because of the other 2 chest options
Expected shards to get one? 2500
Ring
Right element Stone of Jordan
Which builds? all
How important? not required, but clearly BiS
Expected shards to get one? 41600
Modifier: I have multiplied the result with 4 because you probably would not use one with the wrong elemental bonus. The odds of the other stats rolling perfect, so that you can reroll the elemental damage are rather small.
Unity
Which builds? solo play
How important? not required, but nice toughness boost if you have 2 of them (1 on follower)
Expected shards to get one? 20800
Restraint
Which builds? maybe Wand of Woh builds, I don't know but some people seem to want these rings desperately
How important? not required, may be a great dps boost (only with both rings of course)
Expected shards to get one? 104000
Focus
Which builds? maybe Wand of Woh builds, I don't know but some people seem to want these rings desperately
How important? not required, may be a great dps boost (only with both rings of course)
Expected shards to get one? 104000
Wyrdward
Which builds? certain lightning builds
How important? can't tell
Expected shards to get one? 20800
Orbs
+2 Mirrorball
Which builds? This item creates it's own build
How important? above mandatory for a such build (obviously)
Expected shards to get one? 6100
Modifier: Times 2 because we want 2 extra missiles, not one. Please be aware that I don't know if both rolls are equally probable.
Step by step calculation: Gambling 1 Orb costs 5 Blood Shards, with an expected legendary chance of 2% we need (on average!) 50 purchases per 1 legendary, so we're at 250 Blood Shards per leg. Now the weighting of Mirrorball at Kadala is 50/610, which means out of 610 legendary Orbs we should see 50 Mirrorballs, that's 1 Mirrorball per 12.2 legs. Now that 1 leg costs 250 shards, we need 250 * 12.2 shards = 3050 shards for 1 Mirrorball (still only average) And with the additional requirement of the Mirrorball to roll +2 MMs and not just +1, we can double that amount to 6100(assuming both are equally probable).
Tal Rasha's Unwavering Glare
Which builds? none specific, just to list all Tal pieces because the 3 and 4pc bonuses are good
How important? not required
Expected shards to get one? 1525
Firebird's Eye
Which builds? all fire builds that don't use MMs
How important? not required, but potential BiS because of the bonus fire damage
Expected shards to get one? 1525
Myken's Ball of Hate
Which builds? Electrocute builds
How important? BiS
Expected shards to get one? 3050
Wands
Wand of Woh
Which builds? This item creates it's own build (and is one of the best items in the game)
How important? above mandatory for a such build (obviously)
Expected shards to get one? 148500 (might be much higher)
Modifier: I have calculated this with a shard cost of 45 per Wand. Since you cannot gamble for them directly, you have to buy "mystery 1h weapon", which costs 15 shards and from the recently gathered data it seems likely to be a 1/3 ratio.
Pants
Pox Faulds
Which builds? Melee builds
How important? not required, I never tried them, but I know, they're quite popular
Expected shards to get one? 6625
Hexing Pants of Mr Yan
Which builds? certain Wand of Woh builds
How important? not required, but a high dps option if you always move
Expected shards to get one? 13250
Vyr's Fantastic Finery
Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
How important? you need three pieces, the pants compete with the Cpt. Crimson set for some builds
Expected shards to get one? 1325
Bracers
Strongarm Bracers
Which builds? Builds that use Black Hole
How important? not required, but a high dps option because Black Hole triggers the bonus damage
Expected shards to get one? 2150
Warzechian Armguards
Which builds? speed farm purposes
How important? mandatory for maximum clear speed (normal bounties for example)
Expected shards to get one? 4300
Nemesis Bracers
Which builds? No build, just keep them in the inventory and equip them before clicking on any shrine
How important? not required, but more elite packs are more elite packs
Expected shards to get one? 2150
Trang'Oul Coils
Which builds? Archon builds, but don't wear them, use them to refresh the cooldown
How important? not required, but might be handy
Expected shards to get one? 2150
Ancient Parthan Defenders
Which builds? certain lightning builds
How important? can't tell
Expected shards to get one? 4300
Shoulders
Homing Pads
Which builds? No build, just keep them in the inventory and equip them as needed
How important? not required, but it's effect can be pretty useful
Expected shards to get one? 1375
Spaulders of Zakara
Which builds? No build, they're used when you do something that brings many deaths with it to avoid repair costs
How important? not required, but it's effect can be pretty useful
Expected shards to get one? 1375
Gloves
Magefist
Which builds? all fire builds
How important? not required, but definitely BiS because it can roll 5 primary stats
Expected shards to get one? 1300
Frostburn
Which builds? all cold builds
How important? not required, but definitely BiS (don't know if 5 primary stats are possible too, edit: not possible according to Blayreau)
Expected shards to get one? 13000 (yes, 13k)
Vyr's Grasping Gauntlets
Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
How important? you need three pieces, the gloves compete with Magefists
Expected shards to get one? 1300
Also, please don't throw away Tasker and Theo, they're far and away BiS for a pet WD and as rare as Frostburn
Helms
Right element Andariel's Visage
Which builds? all builds
How important? not required, possibly BiS, but might interfere with the Aughild Set if you need/want to use non-Aughild Bracers
Expected shards to get one? 12000
Modifier: Times 4, see SoJ, also I calculated with a cost of 7.5 per helm applying the same ratio as with Wands
Tal Rasha's Guise of Wisdom
Which builds? all builds
How important? not required, listed for completeness but don't choose this over Aughild's
Expected shards to get one? 3000
Modifier: Also calculated with a cost of 7.5 per helm (see above)
Velvet Camaral
Which builds? Electrocute builds
How important? BiS
Expected shards to get one? 30750
Modifier: Calculated with a cost of 15 per helm (see above)
Belts
String of Ears
Which builds? high torment builds
How important? not required, BiS for high toughness
Expected shards to get one? 6050 (5550 as WD)
Harrington Waistguard
Which builds? all builds
How important? not required, BiS for high dps
Expected shards to get one? 6050 (5550 as WD)
Tal Rasha's Brace
Which builds? all builds
How important? not required, listed for completeness, only a temporary option imo
Expected shards to get one? 3025
Thundergod's Vigor
Which builds? lightning builds
How important? BiS
Expected shards to get one? 3025 (2775 as WD)
Amulets
Moonlight Ward
Which builds? all arcane builds
How important? not required, but far and away BiS
Expected shards to get one? 14420
Tal Rasha's Allegiance
Which builds? all non-arcane builds
How important? not required, but one of the better options to go for the set bonuses
Expected shards to get one? 14420
The Star of Azkaranth
Which builds? no specific build, just wanted to list the rarest item in the game
How important? -
Expected shards to get one? 721000 (621000 as WD)
Dovu Energy Trap
Which builds? certain lightning builds
How important? can't tell
Expected shards to get one? 28840 (24840 as WD)
Boots
Ice Climbers
Which builds? all builds except heavy CDR builds (rather use Cpt. Crimson)
How important? not required, but the effect should make life a lot easier (I don't have them)
Expected shards to get one? 17750
Vyr's Swaggering Stance
Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
How important? you need three pieces, the boots compete with the Cpt. Crimson set for some builds
Expected shards to get one? 1775
Shields
Lidless Wall
Which builds? nothing specific, consider this if you want/need toughness
How important? can't tell
Expected shards to get one? 900
Swords Shard of Hate
Which builds? lightning builds
How important? can't tell
Expected shards to get one? 29550 * X (!!)
X is the amount of weapons you need to buy to get 1 sword.
Please draw your own conclusions and feel free to correct me.
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- Ambient6
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http://diablo.incgamers.com/blog/comments/diablo-3-developer-live-stream-transcript
John: The other sets are useless if you want to be the strongest Demon Hunter and clear the highest Greater Rift… absolutely right. The problem isn’t with M6 itself… a lot of DHs including myself think there is a lot of strategy and gameplay nuances with placing your sentries correctly, balancing your resources, etc.
The real problem is that there aren’t viable other options. And that’s really where we’re trying to go.
Examples: We’ve talked about designs for 6 piece bonuses for all the vanilla class sets. None of which are top tier. Inna’s, IK, Natalya’s, etc. We have solid plans for adding 6 piece bonuses for all those sets that would bring them to the power level of M6 or Jade Harvester or LeapQuake or whatever.
They would then be a build of their own. For example, the Nat’s 6 piece bonus is something like, Every time you cast a generator or spender, you reduce the cooldown of your Rain of Vengeance by… 10 seconds. Something like that. The idea is to be a different kind of build. Wyatt’s going crazy because that’s way too powerful… *laughter* Some number that makes a different build by bringing up the power level. And that’s really the idea we’re going for. Adding new things and not nerfing existing things.
We have a bar now. We have Greater Rifts. We see every class on top of the leader boards and their build… so now we want to bring the other builds up to there by adding new items and synergizing existing items.