There was a 1/250 chance of getting no key drops like you did on your successive runs. In other words, if 250 people did what you did, one guy can be expected to get zero keys. That guy was you.
Your insistence that this is somehow impossible is especially puzzling, considering you seem to understand how a binomial distribution works.
I agree that your situation sucks, and it's a good argument for the implementation of a pseudo-RNG system that mitigates streaking. For example, some games feature mechanics that slowly scale your chances upwards until a success is rolled, at which point the probability resets.
Just remember that in the D3 system, for every drought, there is a flood.
And finally a rationale rebuke...
Yes, I realize that two successive strings of bad luck on a key run are unlikely yet possible. But what about a single person getting 3 set items of the class they are playing in a very short amount of time. What about identical items dropping in close proximity? Where there is smoke there is fire, the Bliz system certainly contains an element of randomness, but there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG.
OP, one of the reasons people are reading/posting here instead of the official forums is actually to avoid posters like you. Just saying.
Also, sorry to break it for you but it looks like some of your friends have been using the RMAH and just pretended they got lucky. 3 pieces of the set you want in a matter of days? Yeah, right.
RMAH HC? Yeah, right. See what I mean, you're trying to argue against me and you support my argument. What I said is exactly right, he got 3 set pieces of his class set in <2 days. The probability of this is so small to be virtually impossible, yet it happened. There is a reason, and it is not RNG -- there is something to the loot other than randomness which bliz either does not know about, or does not want to share.
I think the OP is never gonna post here ever again.
Wrong. To date all we've had is people calling names and asking me to run some complex statistical analysis. My "proof" is experience, yours is "blizzard say so". How can you crap on my proof and use Blizzard's word as yours?
If there can be a bug that creates identical legendaries 15 yards apart, there can be a bug in their "RNG" method of distributing loot. But keep being fanboys and defending bliz. IMO they're a bunch of liars who sold out to the almighty dollar ages ago. My post to them is derogatory because I hate being lied to and they deserve my ire.
You are blabbering utter nonsense without any proof whatsoever, whatever happened to you individually and the jealousy of that guy next door that got what he wanted does not, by any means, provide for any sort of proof. If you want to have your 'theory' even listened to by anyone - provide solid, statistical proof. Don't come with the 5 out of 6 didn't drop, that sample size is so pathetic it's equivalent to proclaiming that woman with dimples has a higher sex drive - sound ludicrous right? Same goes for your post.
Sure, i did 7 wardens on MP6 the other day and i only got 1 key, the night before i did 12 wardens on MP5 and i got 12 keys. Seriously, just get a coin and toss it 11 times, please report your findings upon that and proclaim that there's a 75.234% chance of getting heads when tossing a coin.
People like you should not only be banned from forums, people like you should be banned from life in general - idiocy like that makes life all that much more miserable for those around you.
and your evidence is where? such a hypocritical post, and i like your creative touch of banning me from life, did you learn that insult from one of the other lemmings, or perhaps your coworkers at mcdonalds?
all these personal attacks, yet nobody offers any proof to dispute my claim, other than blizzard says it is rng therefore it must be rng. way to go fanboys, you can join the other lemmings off the end of the cliff. nobody has yet to address how 2 identical ivory towers dropped other than a vague reference to a possible bug.
small sample size? you're using the 1-2 instances I brought up but i've got 20k+ elite kills which I obviously can't go into kill for kill. sure, on the big picture of millions of diablo players getting billions of kills 20k is small, but it is enough for me to interpolate and draw the conclusion that there is a flaw in blizzard's rng. but go ahead and continue repeating the same old blather with absolutely zero evidence other than taking blizzard's word for it while on the other hand complaining i lack evidence. kettle, let me introduce you to pot.
*shrug* If it is random, then people with lower MF shouldn't consistently get more and better quality drops. In addition, if there is a bug that allows 2 of the same item to drop 15 yards from each other is it not beyond the realm of possibility that bliz might intend for loot drops to be RNG, yet because of programming problems it is not?
And seriously, Bliz encourages angry posts when they so obviously make the lead designers class easier and more powerful than any other class in the game.
EDIT: i'd also like to add that I love the 6 legendary video. fake or not, the thing I appreciated was the wiz only had 3 buttons on his friggin bars.
I was forum banned for "harassment" for this post. The entire thread was deleted, read for yourself and decide if I'm harassing or Blizzard is hiding the truth. I should've worded it without calling bliz incompetent or liars I suppose and it would've been more difficult to delete and ban but man do they piss me off.
Thread Title:
RNG is a lie. Bliz = liars or incompetent
Last night mp6, 3 key wardens in a row no key. Tonight mp5 4 key wardens in a row no key, so yes I'm aggravated as I write this. These are successively 6.4% and 6.25% odds of happening. We all have "that guy" as a friend who has gotten 10-20 100m+ set pieces who have lower MF and are lower paragon than you, while you've never gotten anything worth 50m. I have one HC WD friend who got 3 pieces of his Zunimassa's set in in a matter of a few days around paragon 20. We're talking a WD getting 3 of 5 of the set specifically designed for his class. The odds against that are astronomically bad -- as in so bad that the only way it could have happened was other than random. I'll also add that the same WD just today got 3 set pieces on HC for other classes worth >100m each. He also farms mp0 and has managed to get keys at a rate far higher than 5%.
So, how is loot distributed? Who knows, but Blizzard's insistence that it is RNG is laughable. Fanboys who post RNG is RNG when anybody says anything different remind me of lemmings that jump off the cliff behind the million that just committed suicide. Who knows maybe their blind loyalty earns them +1% MF every time they lick Blizzard's boots and I get another -1% (which would explain why my loot drops are so atrocious). There is some variable somewhere that makes some accounts more prone to good loot then others. Either Bliz doesn't know which makes them incompetent, or they know and aren't telling which makes them liars. Blizzard has lost all credibility by letting their lead designer make his favorite class twice as good as any other, so them telling us that it is RNG carries no weight in my mind.
BTW, anybody want one of my 6 hellracks or ivory towers? I've no shortage of those items..
EDIT: btw, Barb friend of mine just had 2 Ivory Towers drop within 15 yards of each other. They are IDENTICAL. RNG huh? BS! Quit lying bliz and start explaining
All equivalent weapons are >100M on the AH and since I can use the weapon in my main spec I wouldn't consider any offers lower. This is why I was hoping to trade.
1038.6DPS
+32 max damage
+230-542 fire damage
+47% damage
+91 str
+66 dex
+8% IAS
+901 LoH
I would like to trade for a ceremonial knife that has a minimum of 1000 dps, 900 LoH, 10 mana regen, 8% IAS, socket, and 80 INT (could trade between dps/int/IAS, the end goal is equal or better damage output). The only equivalent weapons on RMAH are selling for $250, there is nothing as good with 900 LoH on gold AH, and equivalent ceremonial daggers sell for much less -- this is a good trade for you.
Will also sell for 150M gold.
Why am I doing this trade? I just happen to be running a vision quest LoH WD build and need the mana return, otherwise I wouldn't even consider it since this weapon would be incredible for a barb or monk tank as well. Any ceremonial dagger will have to be as good as the spear or better, and I am not negotiable on the gold price. My apologies if somebody undercuts me and makes this look like a bad deal but since the spear works almost perfectly for me (save mana return) I'm not anxious to get rid of it :).
I don't have a barbarian but got a pretty nice 2H mighty axe. I'm willing to sell but would prefer to trade for something I can use. I have witch doctor tank build and am looking for a ceremonial dagger with at least 750+ dps, 600 LoH, along with some int, vit, or cc. Willing to consider other 1H wpns but prefer ceremonial dagger for the mana regen.
Thanks
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And finally a rationale rebuke...
Yes, I realize that two successive strings of bad luck on a key run are unlikely yet possible. But what about a single person getting 3 set items of the class they are playing in a very short amount of time. What about identical items dropping in close proximity? Where there is smoke there is fire, the Bliz system certainly contains an element of randomness, but there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG.
RMAH HC? Yeah, right. See what I mean, you're trying to argue against me and you support my argument. What I said is exactly right, he got 3 set pieces of his class set in <2 days. The probability of this is so small to be virtually impossible, yet it happened. There is a reason, and it is not RNG -- there is something to the loot other than randomness which bliz either does not know about, or does not want to share.
Wrong. To date all we've had is people calling names and asking me to run some complex statistical analysis. My "proof" is experience, yours is "blizzard say so". How can you crap on my proof and use Blizzard's word as yours?
If there can be a bug that creates identical legendaries 15 yards apart, there can be a bug in their "RNG" method of distributing loot. But keep being fanboys and defending bliz. IMO they're a bunch of liars who sold out to the almighty dollar ages ago. My post to them is derogatory because I hate being lied to and they deserve my ire.
and your evidence is where? such a hypocritical post, and i like your creative touch of banning me from life, did you learn that insult from one of the other lemmings, or perhaps your coworkers at mcdonalds?
small sample size? you're using the 1-2 instances I brought up but i've got 20k+ elite kills which I obviously can't go into kill for kill. sure, on the big picture of millions of diablo players getting billions of kills 20k is small, but it is enough for me to interpolate and draw the conclusion that there is a flaw in blizzard's rng. but go ahead and continue repeating the same old blather with absolutely zero evidence other than taking blizzard's word for it while on the other hand complaining i lack evidence. kettle, let me introduce you to pot.
And seriously, Bliz encourages angry posts when they so obviously make the lead designers class easier and more powerful than any other class in the game.
EDIT: i'd also like to add that I love the 6 legendary video. fake or not, the thing I appreciated was the wiz only had 3 buttons on his friggin bars.
Thread Title:
RNG is a lie. Bliz = liars or incompetent
Last night mp6, 3 key wardens in a row no key. Tonight mp5 4 key wardens in a row no key, so yes I'm aggravated as I write this. These are successively 6.4% and 6.25% odds of happening. We all have "that guy" as a friend who has gotten 10-20 100m+ set pieces who have lower MF and are lower paragon than you, while you've never gotten anything worth 50m. I have one HC WD friend who got 3 pieces of his Zunimassa's set in in a matter of a few days around paragon 20. We're talking a WD getting 3 of 5 of the set specifically designed for his class. The odds against that are astronomically bad -- as in so bad that the only way it could have happened was other than random. I'll also add that the same WD just today got 3 set pieces on HC for other classes worth >100m each. He also farms mp0 and has managed to get keys at a rate far higher than 5%.
So, how is loot distributed? Who knows, but Blizzard's insistence that it is RNG is laughable. Fanboys who post RNG is RNG when anybody says anything different remind me of lemmings that jump off the cliff behind the million that just committed suicide. Who knows maybe their blind loyalty earns them +1% MF every time they lick Blizzard's boots and I get another -1% (which would explain why my loot drops are so atrocious). There is some variable somewhere that makes some accounts more prone to good loot then others. Either Bliz doesn't know which makes them incompetent, or they know and aren't telling which makes them liars. Blizzard has lost all credibility by letting their lead designer make his favorite class twice as good as any other, so them telling us that it is RNG carries no weight in my mind.
BTW, anybody want one of my 6 hellracks or ivory towers? I've no shortage of those items..
EDIT: btw, Barb friend of mine just had 2 Ivory Towers drop within 15 yards of each other. They are IDENTICAL. RNG huh? BS! Quit lying bliz and start explaining
165 Dex
52 Vit
+45 Arcane Res
+61 All Res
+12% Move
+1751 health globes.
Opening bid 2M
You are right, quite a nice weapon but not what I am searching for. Thanks.
1038.6DPS
+32 max damage
+230-542 fire damage
+47% damage
+91 str
+66 dex
+8% IAS
+901 LoH
I would like to trade for a ceremonial knife that has a minimum of 1000 dps, 900 LoH, 10 mana regen, 8% IAS, socket, and 80 INT (could trade between dps/int/IAS, the end goal is equal or better damage output). The only equivalent weapons on RMAH are selling for $250, there is nothing as good with 900 LoH on gold AH, and equivalent ceremonial daggers sell for much less -- this is a good trade for you.
Will also sell for 150M gold.
Why am I doing this trade? I just happen to be running a vision quest LoH WD build and need the mana return, otherwise I wouldn't even consider it since this weapon would be incredible for a barb or monk tank as well. Any ceremonial dagger will have to be as good as the spear or better, and I am not negotiable on the gold price. My apologies if somebody undercuts me and makes this look like a bad deal but since the spear works almost perfectly for me (save mana return) I'm not anxious to get rid of it :).
Thank you for looking.
Thanks