I understand probability very well actually. The point of my post, which you quoted out of context, was that the OP's observations were purely anecdotal, and that his bad luck doesn't prove anything about the drop rates. I provided a counter-point to demonstrate that, with the same drop rates, better results are definitely possible, and that, ultimately, his experience was simply bad luck.Quote from zipppyI hate to pick on any specific post, but this quote in particular speaks to the gross misapplication/misunderstanding of probability that pops up.Quote from Sylvr
It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
I still can't figure out how you conclude that I was misapplying or misunderstanding probability from the post that you quoted. Perhaps it's a semantics issue. I assume that it was understood that when I said "random", that I meant random within the parameters of the drop rate. Even if you know the drop rate, the "random" aspect is how long, or how many samples it takes for that drop rate to manifest. It's simply the Law of large numbers in practice. My exceptionally good luck, and the OPs exceptionally bad luck are clear indications that we haven't evened out enough to realize the true drop rate, and there's no telling when we will. Our streaks of luck (good and bad) might end this week, or it might keep running for the next year. THAT is the random part, as the Law of large numbers doesn't say HOW large the numbers must be.
Edit: Or perhaps I simply stated my thoughts poorly. It all made/makes sense in my head. The inability to structure my thoughts into a readable format has always been one of my weaknesses.