It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
I hate to pick on any specific post, but this quote in particular speaks to the gross misapplication/misunderstanding of probability that pops up.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
I understand probability very well actually. The point of my post, which you quoted out of context, was that the OP's observations were purely anecdotal, and that his bad luck doesn't prove anything about the drop rates. I provided a counter-point to demonstrate that, with the same drop rates, better results are definitely possible, and that, ultimately, his experience was simply bad luck.
I still can't figure out how you conclude that I was misapplying or misunderstanding probability from the post that you quoted. Perhaps it's a semantics issue. I assume that it was understood that when I said "random", that I meant random within the parameters of the drop rate. Even if you know the drop rate, the "random" aspect is how long, or how many samples it takes for that drop rate to manifest. It's simply the Law of large numbers in practice. My exceptionally good luck, and the OPs exceptionally bad luck are clear indications that we haven't evened out enough to realize the true drop rate, and there's no telling when we will. Our streaks of luck (good and bad) might end this week, or it might keep running for the next year. THAT is the random part, as the Law of large numbers doesn't say HOW large the numbers must be.
Edit: Or perhaps I simply stated my thoughts poorly. It all made/makes sense in my head. The inability to structure my thoughts into a readable format has always been one of my weaknesses.
It's random my friend. Some people are luckier than others. I went from Paragon 30 or so to 293 since RoS and I'm 7/6 Marauder's (2 Gloves), 4/5 Natalya's, and even 2/4 of that shitty Shadow set. I also got my RRoG within my first dozen or so caches after hitting 70.
None of this has anything to do with me. There are plenty of better players who are stuck with worse gear. It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
Your gold expenditure will ramp up, peak, and then taper off as you progress a build/class. As you start a build, you'll be spending a lot to build up your Gem sets, and you'll be enchanting more since items you find are more likely to be upgrades. Eventually, however, you're going to finish your Gem sets, and upgrades will become more rare, and you won't have as many pieces to work on. Even the likelihood of re-gemming items becomes less with playtime as you become more likely to simply have a 2nd piece of an item that you can keep a set of gems in and switch out the piece itself instead of altering it every time you want to tinker. For instance, I might eventually have a body piece with Diamonds and/or Amethysts for high-torment, and then one with Primary Gems for T1-2 farming.
My point is, you're eventually going to cap out on the major gold sinks, and will only have repairs and the very occasional gems/enchants to worry about. I assume that this is the reason that there are so many varying reports of gold flow even in this thread. The people who are gaining have possibly progressed more, or perhaps are simply focusing on and completing a single build rather than working on several.
Personally, I started RoS with only 8M, and have managed more than a full set of Emeralds for my DH, as well as a couple Diamonds and Amethysts as I break into higher Torment. I have often had to stop and farm gold (T6 "Clear the Hell Rift"), but it doesn't bother me since the end of that particular grind is in sight.
I salvaged an SoJ because it was the wrong element and didn't have CC or CHD... later, I realized that even a shitty SoJ is better than most trifectas.
I had a Calamity at some point, though I don't remember if it was at 60 or 70... I got something that I thought was "better", so I nuked it. Not sure if regret.
I think I've salvaged a Thunderfury or 2, but I still don't have a lightning spec that I particularly care about, so I haven't regretted it quite yet.
It's gonna vary a lot from person to person depending on what you find and what you want to do with it. I've had times where I just stockpile souls and never need to use them, and then I'll find something, or read about an interesting build that I want to try, and suddenly I'm pulling out the couch cushions trying to come up with any that I may have missed, or some Legendaries that I was hesitant to blow up before (I've been putting stuff aside for my Barb, but I keep salvaging it all when I run low).
If I can manage to get Marauder shoulders or boots, then I'll have 4-piece Marauder's and 3-piece Natalya's with this ring. That will be pretty damn nice.
You're gonna wanna work on smoothing out your speaking a bit. You're using a lot of filler words ("uh" being most common). Generally, that's a sign that you're either trying to speak faster than you're finding the words, or that you're just nervous being recorded.
If it's the first, then you should either slow down and speak at a pace in which you can flow well, or write down what you want to say (either a script, or just an outline, whichever you feel you need).
If it's the second, then you want to think of a time or place when you're able to speak smoothly, and figure out a way to put yourself in that mindset. For instance, most people don't stutter or hesitate when they talk to themselves. Try speaking as though you're explaining it to yourself- like you're re-affirming your ideas.
In either case, you want to speak confidently. You want to talk like you're the authority on the subject. Don't worry about whether the content is right or wrong while you're recording it. The validity of your claims can be discussed in the comments after it's posted.
You have to be fairly methodical to beat him consistently. The methods to dodging his various attacks are pretty straight forward, you just have to account for the few RNG factors like the bullet walls, cloud placement, and wing positioning.
What used to be my downfall fighting him as DH was that I was impatient. I would try to power through his HP and push him through phases, and I would get hit with stuff that was perfectly avoidable. When I slowed down and start paying more attention to the mechanics and less to his HP bar, the fight got a lot easier.
One tip that might help is that, if you know you can't avoid some of his damage, then think about where your next heal is going to come from. If your potion is on timer, then situate yourself within range of one of the health wells, or stall until he's in a phase where you can outheal his damage via LoH, or kill his adds but leave their HP Orbs on the ground until you need them.
Build a parallel gear set for a different and interesting build. Maybe center it around some legendary effect, like maybe those gloves that do 1000% of your Thorns Damage when you get hit, or maybe the Life Per Second legs that give you that aura.
Play Hardcore. Totally different game when you actually care about dying.
Level and gear alts.
Like the OP, I find myself looking mostly for specific items, though there are several others that could still be an upgrade. Even so, I've already got my eyes on my next build (Pet-centric Demon Hunter looks ridiculously fun). After that, I'll do a different class, and then branch out to whacky builds on that too. I'll repeat that cycle until I get sick of it, and then start playing Hardcore, or just find a different game to play.
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I still can't figure out how you conclude that I was misapplying or misunderstanding probability from the post that you quoted. Perhaps it's a semantics issue. I assume that it was understood that when I said "random", that I meant random within the parameters of the drop rate. Even if you know the drop rate, the "random" aspect is how long, or how many samples it takes for that drop rate to manifest. It's simply the Law of large numbers in practice. My exceptionally good luck, and the OPs exceptionally bad luck are clear indications that we haven't evened out enough to realize the true drop rate, and there's no telling when we will. Our streaks of luck (good and bad) might end this week, or it might keep running for the next year. THAT is the random part, as the Law of large numbers doesn't say HOW large the numbers must be.
Edit: Or perhaps I simply stated my thoughts poorly. It all made/makes sense in my head. The inability to structure my thoughts into a readable format has always been one of my weaknesses.
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None of this has anything to do with me. There are plenty of better players who are stuck with worse gear. It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
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My point is, you're eventually going to cap out on the major gold sinks, and will only have repairs and the very occasional gems/enchants to worry about. I assume that this is the reason that there are so many varying reports of gold flow even in this thread. The people who are gaining have possibly progressed more, or perhaps are simply focusing on and completing a single build rather than working on several.
Personally, I started RoS with only 8M, and have managed more than a full set of Emeralds for my DH, as well as a couple Diamonds and Amethysts as I break into higher Torment. I have often had to stop and farm gold (T6 "Clear the Hell Rift"), but it doesn't bother me since the end of that particular grind is in sight.
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I had a Calamity at some point, though I don't remember if it was at 60 or 70... I got something that I thought was "better", so I nuked it. Not sure if regret.
I think I've salvaged a Thunderfury or 2, but I still don't have a lightning spec that I particularly care about, so I haven't regretted it quite yet.
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If it's the first, then you should either slow down and speak at a pace in which you can flow well, or write down what you want to say (either a script, or just an outline, whichever you feel you need).
If it's the second, then you want to think of a time or place when you're able to speak smoothly, and figure out a way to put yourself in that mindset. For instance, most people don't stutter or hesitate when they talk to themselves. Try speaking as though you're explaining it to yourself- like you're re-affirming your ideas.
In either case, you want to speak confidently. You want to talk like you're the authority on the subject. Don't worry about whether the content is right or wrong while you're recording it. The validity of your claims can be discussed in the comments after it's posted.
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1
What used to be my downfall fighting him as DH was that I was impatient. I would try to power through his HP and push him through phases, and I would get hit with stuff that was perfectly avoidable. When I slowed down and start paying more attention to the mechanics and less to his HP bar, the fight got a lot easier.
One tip that might help is that, if you know you can't avoid some of his damage, then think about where your next heal is going to come from. If your potion is on timer, then situate yourself within range of one of the health wells, or stall until he's in a phase where you can outheal his damage via LoH, or kill his adds but leave their HP Orbs on the ground until you need them.
0
Play Hardcore. Totally different game when you actually care about dying.
Level and gear alts.
Like the OP, I find myself looking mostly for specific items, though there are several others that could still be an upgrade. Even so, I've already got my eyes on my next build (Pet-centric Demon Hunter looks ridiculously fun). After that, I'll do a different class, and then branch out to whacky builds on that too. I'll repeat that cycle until I get sick of it, and then start playing Hardcore, or just find a different game to play.