Apparently the datamined primal droprate is something like 0.3% instead of the 1% Bliz stated. The ancient droprate worked out to basically 10% as promised
The 1% droprate never went to live, it was only 1% in the very beginning of the PTR when ancients were introduced. Some people kept track over hundreds of drops (there were spreadsheets shared a while ago on Reddit) from which we believe it to be something between 0.2% and 0.4%, though it seemed to have converged towards 0.2%-0.25%. Do you have a source for the .3% datamine? That'd be interesting.
On average. one in ten items is ancient, so when using 3105 bounty mats for re-rolling you should've gotten (on average) 62.1 ancients. If what you say is true you're really really unlucky. Is it impossible though? No. We don't know the exact primal droprate but it's probably something like one in 200 or 250, so not getting a primal is also slightly unlucky but not at all impossible; out of 20 people who spend 3k bounty mats one is expected to not get a primal. So you were just the unlucky 20th person here. Not unreasonable at all.
Regarding ancient droprates we could speculate if they're higher or lower this patch; I have my own opinion here but to be honest, this belongs into the RNG thread. I'll be monitoring this thread here but for now it looks like there's not much constructive talk going on.
In an attempt to be constructive, I have to say, using bounty mats to re-roll a Karlei's Point is... the worst possible use of bounty mats. Karlei's Point is an exceptional item for one specific reason: it's by far the easiest item to acquire through the "upgrade rare" recipe as there's only two daggers a DH can get. As bounty mats are far more precious (at least to me) than "normal" mats, I would use the upgrade rare recipe in an attempt to get a better Karlei's Point. I know there's no mathematical equation for which is better; it depends on what you have available. But that's my suggestion for anyone trying to get a better dagger.
But at the end of the day it's all RNG and there's NEVER a guarantee to get any item.
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ModeratorOn average. one in ten items is ancient, so when using 3105 bounty mats for re-rolling you should've gotten (on average) 62.1 ancients. If what you say is true you're really really unlucky. Is it impossible though? No. We don't know the exact primal droprate but it's probably something like one in 200 or 250, so not getting a primal is also slightly unlucky but not at all impossible; out of 20 people who spend 3k bounty mats one is expected to not get a primal. So you were just the unlucky 20th person here. Not unreasonable at all.
Regarding ancient droprates we could speculate if they're higher or lower this patch; I have my own opinion here but to be honest, this belongs into the RNG thread. I'll be monitoring this thread here but for now it looks like there's not much constructive talk going on.
In an attempt to be constructive, I have to say, using bounty mats to re-roll a Karlei's Point is... the worst possible use of bounty mats. Karlei's Point is an exceptional item for one specific reason: it's by far the easiest item to acquire through the "upgrade rare" recipe as there's only two daggers a DH can get. As bounty mats are far more precious (at least to me) than "normal" mats, I would use the upgrade rare recipe in an attempt to get a better Karlei's Point. I know there's no mathematical equation for which is better; it depends on what you have available. But that's my suggestion for anyone trying to get a better dagger.
But at the end of the day it's all RNG and there's NEVER a guarantee to get any item.