ya i have been trying to come up with a good way to collect data, that seems to be the key issue. a bot that sniffs the game will most definitely get you in some dirt with warden. manual input seems slow and tedious and susceptible to human error...
ya i have been trying to come up with a good way to collect data, that seems to be the key issue. a bot that sniffs the game will most definitely get you in some dirt with warden. manual input seems slow and tedious and susceptible to human error...
yeah had the same problem. I'm just manually inputting things, should take like 20 minutes of searching the AH and typing a day. I prob wont do it every day but i'll try haha.
I'm not good with making addons or anything technical like that, but (if it doesnt violate the eula) if someone made something that would monitor, record, and export to excel all the prices and quantities on the AH at various time, so you could see how much is going on the AH at a time, how that affects prices of other goods, etc etc.
I think it will be interesting to watch a game economy where you can buy things in Gold, you can buy things in $, and you can interconvert gold and $ at a fixed tax rate of 27.75%.
The total amount of Gold in the game will eventually level off as the rate of gold creation (drops from enemies) equals the rate of gold destruction (AH fees + repairs + other vendor fees). At this point it's likely that there will be a somewhat stable $-to-Gold exchange rate. The 27.75% tax rate represents a hard limit on how much the exchange rate can fluctuate.
If the real-money price of Gold were to transiently drop by more than 27.75%, it would be cheaper in $ to buy Gold and then purchase items on the Gold AH, and demand for Gold would skyrocket until Gold prices went back up.
Conversely, if the real-money price of Gold were to increase by more than 38.41%, it would be cheaper in Gold to sell all of your Gold for $, and then use the RMAH. The supply of Gold would skyrocket until Gold prices went back down.
It's plausible to believe that even very small fluctuations in the $-to-Gold exchange rate will dramatically change the supply and demand of Gold. This implies that the exchange rate will be quite stable, at least in the short term. Because this exchange-rate balancing mechanism is based entirely on the existence of the RMAH, I believe the Gold exchange rate will closely track the realmoney value of Diablo 3 items. If people are willing to pay more money for D3 gear, then people will also be willing to pay more $ for Gold, as it is a mechanism for acquiring gear. If people stop buying D3 gear then there will be greatly decreased demand for Gold as well.
=====
It's difficult to predict what prices will do beyond the first few months of the game. As in any nascent economy, prices will be sky-high at the very start because supply is so limited. The very first "Tier 18 Awesome Plate" to drop is likely to command a totally absurd price. The next ten will also be expensive. Once there are thousands of them circulating the price will stabilize to some extent.
Because items are non-perishable, the supply can only increase over time. An item that is super awesome in October 2012 is likely to be mediocre in October 2013. (even ignoring expansion packs) This builds in a certain amount of depreciation into the economy - even though the actual stats on a piece of gear don't change over time, its value can only decrease. (Unless a patch causes it to become a super-rare "pre-nerf item" - this is not too different from real-life economic phenomena like "pre-ban assault rifles")
However, it is worth noting that, if you are actually buying items that you can use, those items can make it easier for you to find more items. Even though equipping an item for a prolonged time exposes you to depreciation, it also can increase your kill rate, help you get through Inferno, and increase the chances that you find better items. In addition, it's just plain fun to have good gear. For this reason, the inherent "depreciation" of D3 gear does not make it a bad investment. This can be paralleled to the real life phenomenon of how having a cell phone increases your chances of getting a job and is therefore (generally) a good investment despite the cost.
Of course, the Diablo 3 version of this phenomenon is unlikely to be cost effective, because it is primarily for entertainment. In other words, the free-market price of a D3 item will include a certain "usefulness value" and a certain "entertainment value". As D3 is primarily a game and not a job, I'm certain the vast majority of the price will be "entertainment". You would get better gear faster by working more hours in real life, getting real money, and purchasing gear. Of course, then you might not have as many hours to play your geared out D3 character.
=====
This all begs the question of what happens to the D3 economy once third-world farmers enter the mix. If spending an hour playing a level 60 character generates $0.50 of real-money economic value, that's not a whole lot in the US but will far exceed the hourly wages in many poorer countries. Should gold/item farming be considered a legitimate economic activity?
This also begs the question of what happens when someone finds a horrifically overpowered combination of gear and character build (possibly a combination of several characters). If the average max-level Diablo 3 player generates $0.50 of real-money value per hour, and a "really good" Diablo 3 player generates $3.00, what happens when someone finds something game-breaking and is now making $30 per hour playing D3? When Blizzard nerfs them, they've suffered a significant economic harm. But if Blizzard doesn't nerf them, everyone else in the game suffers an economic harm as all of their items and characters depreciate rapidly and severely.
The real money considerations are really quite interesting.
There are a few more possible money sinks that haven't been mentioned here... the main ones I can think of without putting to much thought into it are:
* Crafting (both recipes and materials) (though not really a 'sink' as it produces stuff)
* Consumables (especially important once PVP comes out - surely there are going to be items all PVP lvl60's will want to give them an edge, e.g. potions etc.)
* Is there any upkeep in D3? (either weapon repairs, follower upkeep etc.) - what about dye's etc. if you change armour appearance?
I'm sure there will be a few others too.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
yeah had the same problem. I'm just manually inputting things, should take like 20 minutes of searching the AH and typing a day. I prob wont do it every day but i'll try haha.
I'm not good with making addons or anything technical like that, but (if it doesnt violate the eula) if someone made something that would monitor, record, and export to excel all the prices and quantities on the AH at various time, so you could see how much is going on the AH at a time, how that affects prices of other goods, etc etc.
its all a problem of information
The total amount of Gold in the game will eventually level off as the rate of gold creation (drops from enemies) equals the rate of gold destruction (AH fees + repairs + other vendor fees). At this point it's likely that there will be a somewhat stable $-to-Gold exchange rate. The 27.75% tax rate represents a hard limit on how much the exchange rate can fluctuate.
If the real-money price of Gold were to transiently drop by more than 27.75%, it would be cheaper in $ to buy Gold and then purchase items on the Gold AH, and demand for Gold would skyrocket until Gold prices went back up.
Conversely, if the real-money price of Gold were to increase by more than 38.41%, it would be cheaper in Gold to sell all of your Gold for $, and then use the RMAH. The supply of Gold would skyrocket until Gold prices went back down.
It's plausible to believe that even very small fluctuations in the $-to-Gold exchange rate will dramatically change the supply and demand of Gold. This implies that the exchange rate will be quite stable, at least in the short term. Because this exchange-rate balancing mechanism is based entirely on the existence of the RMAH, I believe the Gold exchange rate will closely track the realmoney value of Diablo 3 items. If people are willing to pay more money for D3 gear, then people will also be willing to pay more $ for Gold, as it is a mechanism for acquiring gear. If people stop buying D3 gear then there will be greatly decreased demand for Gold as well.
=====
It's difficult to predict what prices will do beyond the first few months of the game. As in any nascent economy, prices will be sky-high at the very start because supply is so limited. The very first "Tier 18 Awesome Plate" to drop is likely to command a totally absurd price. The next ten will also be expensive. Once there are thousands of them circulating the price will stabilize to some extent.
Because items are non-perishable, the supply can only increase over time. An item that is super awesome in October 2012 is likely to be mediocre in October 2013. (even ignoring expansion packs) This builds in a certain amount of depreciation into the economy - even though the actual stats on a piece of gear don't change over time, its value can only decrease. (Unless a patch causes it to become a super-rare "pre-nerf item" - this is not too different from real-life economic phenomena like "pre-ban assault rifles")
However, it is worth noting that, if you are actually buying items that you can use, those items can make it easier for you to find more items. Even though equipping an item for a prolonged time exposes you to depreciation, it also can increase your kill rate, help you get through Inferno, and increase the chances that you find better items. In addition, it's just plain fun to have good gear. For this reason, the inherent "depreciation" of D3 gear does not make it a bad investment. This can be paralleled to the real life phenomenon of how having a cell phone increases your chances of getting a job and is therefore (generally) a good investment despite the cost.
Of course, the Diablo 3 version of this phenomenon is unlikely to be cost effective, because it is primarily for entertainment. In other words, the free-market price of a D3 item will include a certain "usefulness value" and a certain "entertainment value". As D3 is primarily a game and not a job, I'm certain the vast majority of the price will be "entertainment". You would get better gear faster by working more hours in real life, getting real money, and purchasing gear. Of course, then you might not have as many hours to play your geared out D3 character.
=====
This all begs the question of what happens to the D3 economy once third-world farmers enter the mix. If spending an hour playing a level 60 character generates $0.50 of real-money economic value, that's not a whole lot in the US but will far exceed the hourly wages in many poorer countries. Should gold/item farming be considered a legitimate economic activity?
This also begs the question of what happens when someone finds a horrifically overpowered combination of gear and character build (possibly a combination of several characters). If the average max-level Diablo 3 player generates $0.50 of real-money value per hour, and a "really good" Diablo 3 player generates $3.00, what happens when someone finds something game-breaking and is now making $30 per hour playing D3? When Blizzard nerfs them, they've suffered a significant economic harm. But if Blizzard doesn't nerf them, everyone else in the game suffers an economic harm as all of their items and characters depreciate rapidly and severely.
The real money considerations are really quite interesting.
* Crafting (both recipes and materials) (though not really a 'sink' as it produces stuff)
* Consumables (especially important once PVP comes out - surely there are going to be items all PVP lvl60's will want to give them an edge, e.g. potions etc.)
* Is there any upkeep in D3? (either weapon repairs, follower upkeep etc.) - what about dye's etc. if you change armour appearance?
I'm sure there will be a few others too.