Ok so to see how lucky I am or will be in the build contest I created a simple spreadsheet

in the a1 cell I put in the formula =randbetween(0,4000)

assuming 4000 posts

and copied that cell down 50 rows for 50 random numbers between 1 and 4000

I then put in cell b1 this formula =iferror(vlookup(1435,a1:a50,1,false),"NO LUCK")

1435 is my post number -

I then selected a1 (clicked in the input box) and hit enter until i matched my post - this refreshes the 50 random numbers

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY ONE refreshes later LUCKY number 1435 showed up as one of the 50 random numbers -

So in essence I would have to have entered 121 contests in a row (at a pace of one every week that would mean 2+ years later I would get my Beta Key!!!)

Better way of looking at your chances in the contest is that if you assume roughly 4,000 entries (up to 3755 at the time I'm posting this), then do 50/4000, your chances of winning a beta key are 0.0125, or just a tiny tad over 1%. Good luck to everyone out there!

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

i would choose my own religion and worship my own spirit, but if he ever preached to me i wouldn't want to hear it. i'd drop him, a forgotten god, languishing in shame; and then if i hit stormy seas, i'd have myself to blame.

Ok so to see how lucky I am or will be in the build contest I created a simple spreadsheet

in the a1 cell I put in the formula =randbetween(0,4000)

assuming 4000 posts

and copied that cell down 50 rows for 50 random numbers between 1 and 4000

I then put in cell b1 this formula =iferror(vlookup(1435,a1:a50,1,false),"NO LUCK")

1435 is my post number -

I then selected a1 (clicked in the input box) and hit enter until i matched my post - this refreshes the 50 random numbers

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY ONE refreshes later LUCKY number 1435 showed up as one of the 50 random numbers -

So in essence I would have to have entered 121 contests in a row (at a pace of one every week that would mean 2+ years later I would get my Beta Key!!!)

I HAVE NO LUCK! LOL

come on 1435!

big money big money - no WHAMMIES!

i dont need equations like that to prove i have no luck whatsover,ive never won anything full stop!!we have to still try though,if we arent in it we cant have any chance of winning it!

I used to play poker online a lot; played a lot of hold 'em at first, but as the years went on, and hold 'em got studied so much that even dumb people could win just by playing the standard, I started playing a lot of Pot-Limit Omaha, PLO is my shit.

But anyway, there is a statistic called "Expected Value" - or EV. Essentiall, EV is how much money you should've won based on the pots you played, the cards you had, the cards your opponent had, and the odds of you winning the hand, and the chip count in each pot. I found out that over my career (just shy of one million hands) my EV was WELL below the average.

I am, statistically speaking, an unlucky person. 900,000+ hands is a plenty big sample size to say this.

Funny thing is - despite this, I was still a winning player. Imagine if I had the kind of luck some of the jerks on AP had.

1.25% says that out of 80 contests you should have been selected -

as you can see - one's individual luck may mean they are selected in the 1st drawing or the 80th!

all the 1.25% does is say you should win by the 80th selection...

the actual random num generator test applies one's individual luck to the equation (if you believe in chaos theory and luck)

and as you can see - by the 80th drawing I was still not selected - in fact my personal odds of winning based on my personal luck is a DISMAL 0.0082

Wtf is this math fail post ? Kids please don't read.

You have 50/4000 chance to win. This only means that if you do it Infinity times you will win 1.25% of the time.
It never ever never nowhere in hell means you will win by your 80th try.

And 1.25% chance IS the better way to say it as in the easiest and common way.

If you fail after 100try you just had no luck (you are below expectations).

I can only hope I win. I have entered at least 3 contests, no dice yet. The computers and video games one I may have a chance at, unfortunately the time it is on is england and im on eastern u.s time. I also have a chance with the force strategy gaming one. I doubt i will win at all.

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

What is this thing called "real life?" Is that some sort of expansion pack?

1.25% says that out of 80 contests you should have been selected -

as you can see - one's individual luck may mean they are selected in the 1st drawing or the 80th!

all the 1.25% does is say you should win by the 80th selection...

the actual random num generator test applies one's individual luck to the equation (if you believe in chaos theory and luck)

and as you can see - by the 80th drawing I was still not selected - in fact my personal odds of winning based on my personal luck is a DISMAL 0.0082

Wtf is this math fail post ? Kids please don't read.

You have 50/4000 chance to win. This only means that if you do it Infinity times you will win 1.25% of the time.
It never ever never nowhere in hell means you will win by your 80th try.

And 1.25% chance IS the better way to say it as in the easiest and common way.

If you fail after 100try you just had no luck (you are below expectations).

If you do it infinity times you have 100% chance to win even with 0.00000000000000000000000001% chance on a contest.

Math fail?

That being said, saying you'll get it on your 80th attempt is indeed false: that's the whole idea of "luck" and % "chance": you can't predict at what try you'll get it, since this is random. It is, however, about the average amount of times you'd need to win.

1.25% says that out of 80 contests you should have been selected -

as you can see - one's individual luck may mean they are selected in the 1st drawing or the 80th!

all the 1.25% does is say you should win by the 80th selection...

the actual random num generator test applies one's individual luck to the equation (if you believe in chaos theory and luck)

and as you can see - by the 80th drawing I was still not selected - in fact my personal odds of winning based on my personal luck is a DISMAL 0.0082

Wtf is this math fail post ? Kids please don't read.

You have 50/4000 chance to win. This only means that if you do it Infinity times you will win 1.25% of the time.
It never ever never nowhere in hell means you will win by your 80th try.

And 1.25% chance IS the better way to say it as in the easiest and common way.

If you fail after 100try you just had no luck (you are below expectations).

If you do it infinity times you have 100% chance to win even with 0.00000000000000000000000001% chance on a contest.

Math fail?

That being said, saying you'll get it on your 80th attempt is indeed false: that's the whole idea of "luck" and % "chance": you can't predict at what try you'll get it, since this is random. It is, however, about the average amount of times you'd need to win.

Maybe you misread, he said with infinity times, you will win 1.25% of the time, not that you have a 1.25% chance to win. You are correct, no matter how small a chance, you will win eventually with infinite number of entries, and Ayr doesn't dispute that. He just said that with infinite entries, you'd win, and keep winning, but only 1.25% of the time, assuming 50 winners and 4000 entries every time.

At least thats how I understood it, and I could be completely wrong and please tell me if I am.

1.25% says that out of 80 contests you should have been selected -

as you can see - one's individual luck may mean they are selected in the 1st drawing or the 80th!

all the 1.25% does is say you should win by the 80th selection...

the actual random num generator test applies one's individual luck to the equation (if you believe in chaos theory and luck)

and as you can see - by the 80th drawing I was still not selected - in fact my personal odds of winning based on my personal luck is a DISMAL 0.0082

Wtf is this math fail post ? Kids please don't read.

You have 50/4000 chance to win. This only means that if you do it Infinity times you will win 1.25% of the time.
It never ever never nowhere in hell means you will win by your 80th try.

And 1.25% chance IS the better way to say it as in the easiest and common way.

If you fail after 100try you just had no luck (you are below expectations).

If you do it infinity times you have 100% chance to win even with 0.00000000000000000000000001% chance on a contest.

Math fail?

That being said, saying you'll get it on your 80th attempt is indeed false: that's the whole idea of "luck" and % "chance": you can't predict at what try you'll get it, since this is random. It is, however, about the average amount of times you'd need to win.

Maybe you misread, he said with infinity times, you will win 1.25% of the time, not that you have a 1.25% chance to win. You are correct, no matter how small a chance, you will win eventually with infinite number of entries, and Ayr doesn't dispute that. He just said that with infinite entries, you'd win, and keep winning, but only 1.25% of the time, assuming 50 winners and 4000 entries every time.

At least thats how I understood it, and I could be completely wrong and please tell me if I am.

Yes that's what I meant. In other words, if you do the drawing ( of 50 among 4000) N times and you count n the number of times you win, n/N tends toward 1.25% as N tends toward infinity.

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

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in the a1 cell I put in the formula =randbetween(0,4000)

assuming 4000 posts

and copied that cell down 50 rows for 50 random numbers between 1 and 4000

I then put in cell b1 this formula =iferror(vlookup(1435,a1:a50,1,false),"NO LUCK")

1435 is my post number -

I then selected a1 (clicked in the input box) and hit enter until i matched my post - this refreshes the 50 random numbers

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY ONE refreshes later LUCKY number 1435 showed up as one of the 50 random numbers -

So in essence I would have to have entered 121 contests in a row (at a pace of one every week that would mean 2+ years later I would get my Beta Key!!!)

I HAVE NO LUCK! LOL

come on 1435!

big money big money - no WHAMMIES!

i would choose my own religion and worship my own spirit, but if he ever preached to me i wouldn't want to hear it. i'd drop him, a forgotten god, languishing in shame; and then if i hit stormy seas, i'd have myself to blame.1.25% says that out of 80 contests you should have been selected -

as you can see - one's individual luck may mean they are selected in the 1st drawing or the 80th!

all the 1.25% does is say you should win by the 80th selection...

the actual random num generator test applies one's individual luck to the equation (if you believe in chaos theory and luck)

and as you can see - by the 80th drawing I was still not selected - in fact my personal odds of winning based on my personal luck is a DISMAL 0.0082

just for S&G I reran the test and I managed to get my number on the 114th draw - a little better but still HOPELESS!!!

oh well

LOL

come on RELEASE DATE! cuz Beta sure aint in the STARZ!

Wow that's an old reference. I think that show stopped running in 1986.

Thanks for making me feel old.

But anyway, there is a statistic called "Expected Value" - or EV. Essentiall, EV is how much money you should've won based on the pots you played, the cards you had, the cards your opponent had, and the odds of you winning the hand, and the chip count in each pot. I found out that over my career (just shy of one million hands) my EV was WELL below the average.

I am, statistically speaking, an unlucky person. 900,000+ hands is a plenty big sample size to say this.

Funny thing is - despite this, I was still a winning player. Imagine if I had the kind of luck some of the jerks on AP had.

waiff.comWtf is this math fail post ? Kids please don't read.

You have 50/4000 chance to win. This only means that if you do it Infinity times you will win 1.25% of the time.

It never ever never nowhere in hell means you will win by your 80th try.

And 1.25% chance IS the better way to say it as in the easiest and common way.

If you fail after 100try you just had no luck (you are below expectations).

If you do it infinity times you have 100% chance to win even with 0.00000000000000000000000001% chance on a contest.

Math fail?

That being said, saying you'll get it on your 80th attempt is indeed false: that's the whole idea of "luck" and % "chance": you can't predict at what try you'll get it, since this is random. It is, however, about the average amount of times you'd need to win.

Maybe you misread, he said with infinity times, you

willwin 1.25% of the time, not that you have a 1.25% chance to win. You are correct, no matter how small a chance, you will win eventually with infinite number of entries, and Ayr doesn't dispute that. He just said that with infinite entries, you'd win, and keep winning, but only 1.25% of the time, assuming 50 winners and 4000 entries every time.At least thats how I understood it, and I could be completely wrong and please tell me if I am.

Yes that's what I meant. In other words, if you do the drawing ( of 50 among 4000) N times and you count n the number of times you win, n/N tends toward 1.25% as N tends toward infinity.