Hey guys, recently i read a thread about garbage legendaries, (all those we know they are not good at all), well i started to try a theory yesterday, i reallized that while im identifying uneccessary legendaries that eventually get the chance of being ancient, for example a ring so crappy result to end a legendary item...
well what i did its to make my runs in rfits, from 54 legendaries collected in 2.5 hours i kept only 6 including rings and amuletes, everything else went directly to salvage material, so what i did, beside salvage the other legendaries its to keep the other 6 unindetifyed and every 500 shards i bet on kadala on 2 hand weapons for my monk, in this way my logic tells me ill get more chance to get ancient weapons from kadala.
Almost the same theory when you are crafting arcane barb to get it ancient, the more you craft the same weapon or item the more chance we have to get it ancient... Sames as for kadala, the more shards you bet on kadala on especific items the more chance to get an anciente legendary, only if you dont identify any other stuff... i tryid this yesterday and i got 2 ancient weapons from kadala in 2.5 hours of gameplay.
You can call it luck or waethever... for me it worked still id like to see your appreciations and comments about this theory. after all its all about getting better gear and as manner cookie said once the first thing we must gamble at kadala its weapons... everythin else will droped eventually.
thank you all for you time,
cheers from guatemala and pardon my english its not perfect!
The more legends yo ufind in any way the more chance you have of finding an ancient in any given time period.
There's no hidden "you've found 197846129873 legends from kadal, next legend is ancient" or whatever. The chances are completely unaffected by how many "tries" you've had.
so what you are saying its that once a legendary has been collected even if its not identify "allready" has been predefine as ancient legendary in the algorithm blizzard uses? (which we still don´t know how exactly that works ,so its technically hipotetically right? as the same for my theory....)
so what you are saying its that once a legendary has been collected even if its not identify "allready" has been predefine as ancient legendary in the algorithm blizzard uses? (which we still don´t know how exactly that works ,so its technically hipotetically right? as the same for my theory....)
A legendary is determined as ancient on drop. Just like everything's stats are determined on drop. Doesn't matter when you identify it, doesn't matter how you got it, doesn't matter how many times you've identified copies of that item.
10% of the time a legendary is ancient and that status is determined when the item is generated not when it's identified.
so what you are saying its that once a legendary has been collected even if its not identify "allready" has been predefine as ancient legendary in the algorithm blizzard uses? (which we still don´t know how exactly that works ,so its technically hipotetically right? as the same for my theory....)
A legendary is determined as ancient on drop. Just like everything's stats are determined on drop. Doesn't matter when you identify it, doesn't matter how you got it, doesn't matter how many times you've identified copies of that item.
10% of the time a legendary is ancient and that status is determined when the item is generated not when it's identified.
This. Salvaging non useful items like daggers, polearms, chaingmail and the list goes on to avoid wasting a ancient roll is not possible. The item is rolled when it drops. Not when you identify it. You basicly salvage unidentified ancient items insted. Which is still useless
so what you are saying its that once a legendary has been collected even if its not identify "allready" has been predefine as ancient legendary in the algorithm blizzard uses? (which we still don´t know how exactly that works ,so its technically hipotetically right? as the same for my theory....)
A legendary is determined as ancient on drop. Just like everything's stats are determined on drop. Doesn't matter when you identify it, doesn't matter how you got it, doesn't matter how many times you've identified copies of that item.
10% of the time a legendary is ancient and that status is determined when the item is generated not when it's identified.
10% of all legs you find won't neccessarily be ancient.
Legendaries have a 10% chance to roll ancient on T6. If you're shit out uf luck, you might never se an ancient.
If 10% of all legs you find is guaranteed to be ancient, Blizzard needs to know the total amount of legendaries you find until the end of time. Which isn't possible.
*Tinfoil hat on*
I mean, unless it's pre-determined by Blizzard.....
10% of all legendaries everyone in the game @T1+ finds in any period of time greater than "the last second" are ancient.
10% of legendaries that any given player finds will be ancient assuming they play for a period of time approaching infinity.
I mean, unless it's pre-determined by Blizzard..... 10% of all legendaries everyone in the game @T1+ finds in any period of time greater than "the last second" are ancient.
10% of legendaries that any given player finds will be ancient assuming they play for a period of time approaching infinity.
Are we sure about that flat 10%?
The patch notes said "Ancient items can now drop at Torment I or higher. The drop chance will increase with each Torment level"
Or was that just a reference to "10% of legendaries are ancient; drop chance of legendaries increases with each Torment level; therefore the drop chance of Ancients also increases with each Torment level" ?
A legendary item is either ancient or not as soon as it drops. Depending on the difficulty level, any one of them has a flat percent chance of rolling ancient when it drops. It is predetermined. You will not influence it by IDing more, hoarding more, salvaging more, etc.
I can ID 200 Wands of Woh and they can all be ancient. I can also ID 200 Wands of Woh and none can be ancient. Obviously, the latter is more likely given the percentages. My 201st Woh has as much chance of being ancient as the previous 200 non-ancient ones. And no, if I randomly decide to salvage 50 of them unIDed doesn't mean the next one has some odd chance of being ancient. For all I know, i salvaged an ancient one already.
Same goes for crafting. Just because I crafted 100 Arcane Barbs doesn't mean 10% of them are ancient. Doesn't mean the 101st one has a greater chance of being ancient just because the previous 100 ones were non-ancient.
Want anecdotal stuff? It took me ~50 Devastator crafts to get the one I'm using. About 20% of them were ancient. It took me a dozen Arcane Barb crafts to get the one I'm using. Two of them were ancient.
I've lost count on how many Reaper's Wraps I've crafted. In batches of 10, I tend to get one ancient, so let's say ~10%.
No, just because I crafted X number of items doesn't give me more power to influence the next crafted item.
No.
As for rare items, the rarest of the rares have been bumped up in drop frequency. Nothing more to it.
1. Ancient is treated like an extra affix that is either rolled on an item or not and is done even before you visually see the unidentified item on the ground.
2. Random has no memory. Even if each legendary drop has a 10% chance, the drop does not know nor care if none of the last 100 were ancient. You still only have a 10% chance this drop will be ancient.
I mean, unless it's pre-determined by Blizzard..... 10% of all legendaries everyone in the game @T1+ finds in any period of time greater than "the last second" are ancient.
10% of legendaries that any given player finds will be ancient assuming they play for a period of time approaching infinity.
Are we sure about that flat 10%?
The patch notes said "Ancient items can now drop at Torment I or higher. The drop chance will increase with each Torment level"
Or was that just a reference to "10% of legendaries are ancient; drop chance of legendaries increases with each Torment level; therefore the drop chance of Ancients also increases with each Torment level" ?
Current best data suggests that the ancient rate is 10% on T6
Same goes for crafting. Just because I crafted 100 Arcane Barbs doesn't mean 10% of them are ancient. Doesn't mean the 101st one has a greater chance of being ancient just because the previous 100 ones were non-ancient.
If you in some theoretical land crafted a hypothetical number of barbs approaching and the chance is 10% then the number of barbs you've crafted that are ancient approaches 10% of the total number of barbs you've crafted.
Terrible sentence construction, but something that I think can't be stressed enough given the generally poor understanding of how probability works. You're absolutely right that chance doesn't care about how many tries you've made, but apparent chance reaches theoretical chance as sample size increases.
Though in all honesty it takes a sample size in the hundreds or thousands for a 10% chance to agree with itself in apparency.
This is what we call in the netherlands 'The Yellow Beatle Effect(its a car XD)' Normally youll never see a Yellow Beatle on the road, bud when you pay attention to them youll see them a lott more.
This is in my oppinion also the case with farming legendaries in Diablo 3, When you dont pay attention to serten Legendaries youll find them non the less, Bud when youll actively search for them it takes an age before youll find them.
And a items stats is also determined the moment it drops not when you indentify them, So salvaging everything and just indentify what youll looking for does not increase the chance for it to be ancient.
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Hey guys, recently i read a thread about garbage legendaries, (all those we know they are not good at all), well i started to try a theory yesterday, i reallized that while im identifying uneccessary legendaries that eventually get the chance of being ancient, for example a ring so crappy result to end a legendary item...
well what i did its to make my runs in rfits, from 54 legendaries collected in 2.5 hours i kept only 6 including rings and amuletes, everything else went directly to salvage material, so what i did, beside salvage the other legendaries its to keep the other 6 unindetifyed and every 500 shards i bet on kadala on 2 hand weapons for my monk, in this way my logic tells me ill get more chance to get ancient weapons from kadala.
Almost the same theory when you are crafting arcane barb to get it ancient, the more you craft the same weapon or item the more chance we have to get it ancient... Sames as for kadala, the more shards you bet on kadala on especific items the more chance to get an anciente legendary, only if you dont identify any other stuff... i tryid this yesterday and i got 2 ancient weapons from kadala in 2.5 hours of gameplay.
You can call it luck or waethever... for me it worked still id like to see your appreciations and comments about this theory. after all its all about getting better gear and as manner cookie said once the first thing we must gamble at kadala its weapons... everythin else will droped eventually.
thank you all for you time,
cheers from guatemala and pardon my english its not perfect!
There's no hidden "you've found 197846129873 legends from kadal, next legend is ancient" or whatever. The chances are completely unaffected by how many "tries" you've had.
10% of the time a legendary is ancient and that status is determined when the item is generated not when it's identified.
Tinfoil hat on!
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Wiberg-21958/hero/35061489
10% of legendaries that any given player finds will be ancient assuming they play for a period of time approaching infinity.
It's all about sample size.
The patch notes said "Ancient items can now drop at Torment I or higher. The drop chance will increase with each Torment level"
Or was that just a reference to "10% of legendaries are ancient; drop chance of legendaries increases with each Torment level; therefore the drop chance of Ancients also increases with each Torment level" ?
I can ID 200 Wands of Woh and they can all be ancient. I can also ID 200 Wands of Woh and none can be ancient. Obviously, the latter is more likely given the percentages. My 201st Woh has as much chance of being ancient as the previous 200 non-ancient ones. And no, if I randomly decide to salvage 50 of them unIDed doesn't mean the next one has some odd chance of being ancient. For all I know, i salvaged an ancient one already.
Same goes for crafting. Just because I crafted 100 Arcane Barbs doesn't mean 10% of them are ancient. Doesn't mean the 101st one has a greater chance of being ancient just because the previous 100 ones were non-ancient.
Want anecdotal stuff? It took me ~50 Devastator crafts to get the one I'm using. About 20% of them were ancient. It took me a dozen Arcane Barb crafts to get the one I'm using. Two of them were ancient.
I've lost count on how many Reaper's Wraps I've crafted. In batches of 10, I tend to get one ancient, so let's say ~10%.
No, just because I crafted X number of items doesn't give me more power to influence the next crafted item.
No.
As for rare items, the rarest of the rares have been bumped up in drop frequency. Nothing more to it.
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1. Ancient is treated like an extra affix that is either rolled on an item or not and is done even before you visually see the unidentified item on the ground.
2. Random has no memory. Even if each legendary drop has a 10% chance, the drop does not know nor care if none of the last 100 were ancient. You still only have a 10% chance this drop will be ancient.
the longer you grind at this game the higher your chances of finding an ancient legendary will be
If you in some theoretical land crafted a hypothetical number of barbs approaching and the chance is 10% then the number of barbs you've crafted that are ancient approaches 10% of the total number of barbs you've crafted.
Terrible sentence construction, but something that I think can't be stressed enough given the generally poor understanding of how probability works. You're absolutely right that chance doesn't care about how many tries you've made, but apparent chance reaches theoretical chance as sample size increases.
Though in all honesty it takes a sample size in the hundreds or thousands for a 10% chance to agree with itself in apparency.
This is in my oppinion also the case with farming legendaries in Diablo 3, When you dont pay attention to serten Legendaries youll find them non the less, Bud when youll actively search for them it takes an age before youll find them.
And a items stats is also determined the moment it drops not when you indentify them, So salvaging everything and just indentify what youll looking for does not increase the chance for it to be ancient.