Yeah, modelling player behavior is very difficult. I used to play a warrior in WoW and there is an extensive and incredibly impressive DPS spreadsheet done by a member of the EJ community for that class. If you look under the hood of it at all you see how much has to be accounted for.
Exactly ! Great point. As noted, my figures will vary between players. Just a starting point I guess you could call it.
The heavy emphasis on AP regen in these forums assumes that you will be able to spend that AP. "Target Dummy" dps spreadsheets are only valid if you're attacking a target dummy that doesn't fight back.
Right now we have the first 1/3 of Act 1 Normal. That's, yep, 1/48th of the full game. Once we are hitting Hell and Inferno I don't expect that a fragile Wizard will be able to stand still and cast their "optimal DPS rotation".
The more movement you have, the more you are unable to spend all that "AP income", and the less important AP regen becomes. It may be more important to have a large AP pool so you can dump all of that AP at once, before resuming running away from high-damage monsters.