@OP: There has to be a time span entry - something like: Q3 2020 to Q4 2023. This would render predictions like yours of 2025 or someone trolling with 3035 not statistically important. But if you want to allow for any time span, you can later draw conclusions based on different end of spans.
Just like guessing the weight of a bull in the origin of this method or like guessing the number of jellybeans like in the video, trolly or uninformed guesses are within the bounds of the experiment.
In both cases people had a stake in being as near to the correct result as possible. For the bull they would win the meat and in most jellybean guessing games, the closest guess is expected to win the jar. But even with these incentives towards accuracy, unreasonable guesses would still be possible and accepted into the result - someone in the video guesses 50,000 jelly beans!
And just like people have some idea of the size of a bull, or the size of a jar and the jellybeans within, gamers have a sense of scale with regards to game development and release windows, so it is not out of their experience to make fair estimates. Which is part of how the Wisdom of the Crowds can provide surprisingly accurate results sometimes.
That being said I can remove troll posts and if I get some I will provide two sets of estimates, one with all submitted guesses and one excluding out-sized (aka troll) guesses.
Current Estimate (Counting all 9 entries): June 20, 2022 (20/06/2022)
Guess the date that D4 will be released.
Here's mine: June 28, 2025 (28/06/2025)
Using the Wisdom of the Crowd we can try to estimate the release date of D4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
https://youtu.be/iOucwX7Z1HU?t=60
All you have to do is guess the date in a post here. And then I can keep a running average which I will update.
Provide a date in either format: Month Day, Year (or DD/MM/YYYY)
D4 Release Date WoC Estimates
Current Estimate (Counting 17 entries): Jan 30, 2023 (30/01/2023)
2021-12-15
3/15/2022
April 1, 2021
@OP: There has to be a time span entry - something like: Q3 2020 to Q4 2023. This would render predictions like yours of 2025 or someone trolling with 3035 not statistically important. But if you want to allow for any time span, you can later draw conclusions based on different end of spans.
My prediction is 13th of July 2021.
My prediction : after blizzcon 2021 (01.12-31.12.2021) or 15.05.2022 like D3
March 15 2022
:: Enkeria [Twitter / Twitch / Website / Tattoos]
31/12/2021
21/03/2023
Just like guessing the weight of a bull in the origin of this method or like guessing the number of jellybeans like in the video, trolly or uninformed guesses are within the bounds of the experiment.
In both cases people had a stake in being as near to the correct result as possible. For the bull they would win the meat and in most jellybean guessing games, the closest guess is expected to win the jar. But even with these incentives towards accuracy, unreasonable guesses would still be possible and accepted into the result - someone in the video guesses 50,000 jelly beans!
And just like people have some idea of the size of a bull, or the size of a jar and the jellybeans within, gamers have a sense of scale with regards to game development and release windows, so it is not out of their experience to make fair estimates. Which is part of how the Wisdom of the Crowds can provide surprisingly accurate results sometimes.
That being said I can remove troll posts and if I get some I will provide two sets of estimates, one with all submitted guesses and one excluding out-sized (aka troll) guesses.
Current Estimate (Counting all 9 entries): June 20, 2022 (20/06/2022)
My guess is that 2022 will be the year.
As for the date if i could guess one that would be May 15, 2022 (10 years after d3 release).
I am going with 5/23/23.
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 11 entries): July 18, 2022 (18/07/2022)
15/04/2021
June 18, 2021
It never hurts to help!!!
April 16, 2021
Updated D4 Release Date WoC Estimate
Current Estimate (Counting 14 entries): April 15, 2022 (15/04/2022)
September 11th, 2037
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ModeratorI'm gonna say May 24th 2021.
https://www.deviantart.com/aerisot
June 25th, 2021