Games of this nature are meant to be enjoyed for many many years of consistent play. Remove RnG and that goes away.
At face value I totally get your point.
But one month into RoS I'm thoroughly frustrated. I shouldn't be going 10+ days without upgrades, not on a T2 character. That's not fun. It was something I was willing to push through, but the ladder-only legendaries have me asking "why?" Why should I consider doing something that's not quite that fun for me when I know, in the future, I'm going to be served up another huge dose of something that's not fun?
There is a fine balance to be attained between "longevity" and "hopefulness" and, unfortunately for me, RNG has been kicking me in the balls so much that things DON'T feel hopeful. And it's not about the volume of drops, it's more stuff like I've gambled almost 8000 shards on gloves, with over 20 legendaries and no Tasker and Theo, no Frosties. Gambling is supposed to help fight off RNG and, for me, it's taking an undesirable situation and making it worse. That's not fun. That *is* the kind of frustrating that gets people to quit.
If it takes me this long just to find a T&T how long is it going to take me to find a GOOD T&T? And that's just one item. I want to feel like I have a chance to succeed without playing 6+ hours a day. I don't feel like that right now and the ladder-only item tells me that in the future I'm going to be even more forced to invest larger amounts of time in the game to get the items I want. Something about that doesn't feel right... to me.
I wish they would let us target set items some how. Maybe allow us to gamble them but only with shards gained on torment difficulty. They could always add a new type of shard that only drops in torment.
People who have gotten many set drops quickly are not evidence of drop rates being fine, but people who have not gotten any set drops after a long time playing might be evidence that drop rates are not fine.
It may seem as though it should be one way or the other...either they're both evidence of drop-rate-health or neither are, but there's one important distinction, which makes very long droughts more meaningful than very short windfalls: the size of the sample. Getting lucky in the short term is not completely meaningless, but it is not as meaningful as getting 'unlucky' (which might actually be luck-neutral since we don't know actual drop rates) in the long term.
It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
I hate to pick on any specific post, but this quote in particular speaks to the gross misapplication/misunderstanding of probability that pops up.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
Yesterday I got 4 set items that I remember in about 4-5 hours doing t2 rifts with 2-4 players. All of them souls however (2 rings, bt boots and chantodo oh). The amount of regular legs was much higher, got 4 helms alone.
This alone doesn't say anything, but I can only repeat that the ratio of orange to green items seems a bit off. There should be more set drops imo.
And by the way, one big reason, why we mostly see Blackthorne and those stupid rings, is the fact that they drop in any difficulty. I'm not sure if everyone is aware that a green beam while doing normal split bounties does not count as a "bad luck soul"
"In my opinion, around the 400-500 hours played (efficiently) mark."
Sadly I'm at the 400 hour efficiency mark, gone from paragon like 80-367 and have yet to see a single piece of innas, and only a single piece of raiment, which just so happened to have all stats rolling only 3-11 over the minimum values, oh and the secondary res was wrong (I'm monk) and there was only 2 sockets. So yeah. All and all though, all the monk sets are garbage if anything, so I'm not too bummed when I see people with 30 hours in full sets.
In the past couple of days of farming.. I've farmed my 5/6 pieces of Mauraders (several extras, only missing helm drop), entire Shadow set, entire Nats set (several extra helms and rings)
Just yesterday, I got 2 nat rings, 2 maurader pants and a bunch of other random set items..
I might just be lucky...
EDIT: I've also randomly farmed on my alt chars 4 pieces of Raekor on my barb, 3 pieces of Akkhan on my sader without really playing much on them. I think I have 3 pieces of firebird and a couple of pieces of Vyr on my wizard who I've stepped away from.
In the past couple of days of farming.. I've farmed my 5/6 pieces of Mauraders (several extras, only missing helm drop), entire Shadow set, entire Nats set (several extra helms and rings)
Just yesterday, I got 2 nat rings, 2 maurader pants and a bunch of other random set items..
I might just be lucky...
EDIT: I've also randomly farmed on my alt chars 4 pieces of Raekor on my barb, 3 pieces of Akkhan on my sader without really playing much on them. I think I have 3 pieces of firebird and a couple of pieces of Vyr on my wizard who I've stepped away from.
See... this is exactly what IS WRONG with the "Random" loot system right now. Why should this player's loot drop rate so far EXCEED everyone else's drop rate?
It is BS and most likely the reason for all the frustrations expressed here. Sure RNG is fine but the bell curve within that random system needs to be much much smaller. Fix this shit now.
In the past couple of days of farming.. I've farmed my 5/6 pieces of Mauraders (several extras, only missing helm drop), entire Shadow set, entire Nats set (several extra helms and rings)
Just yesterday, I got 2 nat rings, 2 maurader pants and a bunch of other random set items..
I might just be lucky...
EDIT: I've also randomly farmed on my alt chars 4 pieces of Raekor on my barb, 3 pieces of Akkhan on my sader without really playing much on them. I think I have 3 pieces of firebird and a couple of pieces of Vyr on my wizard who I've stepped away from.
Haha Just keep farming you will get them. I got my 2nd piece Akkan set gloves this past wknd only and they are BIS so it was worth the wait and farm but i think they are bugged beacuase i cant seem to reroll the secondary stats to Stun chance which then only will make them BIS but they ar Vital STR CC and CDR
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Nomanis sane whodoesnot knowhow to beinsaneonproperoccasions.
I enjoy the low drop rate on set pieces, it makes it that much more exciting. I would be bored out of my mind if I got my zuni and jaade set already, I like the hunt. It even allows same class to group together and farm to share drops.
I've managed 3 Vyrs pieces (With RoRG) and 2 Firebirds pieces on my Wizard so far. Nothing else whatsoever though on my Monk DH Crusader. I do agree set pieces are too low though still, I was just lucky thusfar on ONE character. None of my friends I group with daily have been
It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
I hate to pick on any specific post, but this quote in particular speaks to the gross misapplication/misunderstanding of probability that pops up.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
I understand probability very well actually. The point of my post, which you quoted out of context, was that the OP's observations were purely anecdotal, and that his bad luck doesn't prove anything about the drop rates. I provided a counter-point to demonstrate that, with the same drop rates, better results are definitely possible, and that, ultimately, his experience was simply bad luck.
I still can't figure out how you conclude that I was misapplying or misunderstanding probability from the post that you quoted. Perhaps it's a semantics issue. I assume that it was understood that when I said "random", that I meant random within the parameters of the drop rate. Even if you know the drop rate, the "random" aspect is how long, or how many samples it takes for that drop rate to manifest. It's simply the Law of large numbers in practice. My exceptionally good luck, and the OPs exceptionally bad luck are clear indications that we haven't evened out enough to realize the true drop rate, and there's no telling when we will. Our streaks of luck (good and bad) might end this week, or it might keep running for the next year. THAT is the random part, as the Law of large numbers doesn't say HOW large the numbers must be.
Edit: Or perhaps I simply stated my thoughts poorly. It all made/makes sense in my head. The inability to structure my thoughts into a readable format has always been one of my weaknesses.
I have always suspected that the "RNG" doesn't work right. This past weekend I got wailing host, litany of the undaunted, another litany of the undaunted, two zunimassa's trail, a zunimassa's pox, two blackthornes pieces, multiple set (green) plan drops (these count I believe)..
And there have been other periods of 5 - 10 hours of rifts where all I get is legendary component craft mats and crap legs. So.. yea..
"RnG is RnG yo!" - except.. I still highly, highly, highly doubt it really works...
I feel your pain. I have put in many hours... I was lucky enough to get a total of 3 set pieces. Although they were all boots =/ 2 Vyr's and 1 Firebird. Good luck to you on your hunt for sets!
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But one month into RoS I'm thoroughly frustrated. I shouldn't be going 10+ days without upgrades, not on a T2 character. That's not fun. It was something I was willing to push through, but the ladder-only legendaries have me asking "why?" Why should I consider doing something that's not quite that fun for me when I know, in the future, I'm going to be served up another huge dose of something that's not fun?
There is a fine balance to be attained between "longevity" and "hopefulness" and, unfortunately for me, RNG has been kicking me in the balls so much that things DON'T feel hopeful. And it's not about the volume of drops, it's more stuff like I've gambled almost 8000 shards on gloves, with over 20 legendaries and no Tasker and Theo, no Frosties. Gambling is supposed to help fight off RNG and, for me, it's taking an undesirable situation and making it worse. That's not fun. That *is* the kind of frustrating that gets people to quit.
If it takes me this long just to find a T&T how long is it going to take me to find a GOOD T&T? And that's just one item. I want to feel like I have a chance to succeed without playing 6+ hours a day. I don't feel like that right now and the ladder-only item tells me that in the future I'm going to be even more forced to invest larger amounts of time in the game to get the items I want. Something about that doesn't feel right... to me.
It may seem as though it should be one way or the other...either they're both evidence of drop-rate-health or neither are, but there's one important distinction, which makes very long droughts more meaningful than very short windfalls: the size of the sample. Getting lucky in the short term is not completely meaningless, but it is not as meaningful as getting 'unlucky' (which might actually be luck-neutral since we don't know actual drop rates) in the long term.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
Today..
Playing T2 rifts solo and not speed farming. I got 2 nats helms in a 4 hour session. ( along with a ton of soul legends ).
This alone doesn't say anything, but I can only repeat that the ratio of orange to green items seems a bit off. There should be more set drops imo.
And by the way, one big reason, why we mostly see Blackthorne and those stupid rings, is the fact that they drop in any difficulty. I'm not sure if everyone is aware that a green beam while doing normal split bounties does not count as a "bad luck soul"
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Sol77-2972/hero/66110450
Sadly I'm at the 400 hour efficiency mark, gone from paragon like 80-367 and have yet to see a single piece of innas, and only a single piece of raiment, which just so happened to have all stats rolling only 3-11 over the minimum values, oh and the secondary res was wrong (I'm monk) and there was only 2 sockets. So yeah. All and all though, all the monk sets are garbage if anything, so I'm not too bummed when I see people with 30 hours in full sets.
Just yesterday, I got 2 nat rings, 2 maurader pants and a bunch of other random set items..
I might just be lucky...
EDIT: I've also randomly farmed on my alt chars 4 pieces of Raekor on my barb, 3 pieces of Akkhan on my sader without really playing much on them. I think I have 3 pieces of firebird and a couple of pieces of Vyr on my wizard who I've stepped away from.
It is BS and most likely the reason for all the frustrations expressed here. Sure RNG is fine but the bell curve within that random system needs to be much much smaller. Fix this shit now.
What I'd like to see :
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Taliesyn-2517/hero/66020932
No man is sane who does not know how to be insane on proper occasions.
I still can't figure out how you conclude that I was misapplying or misunderstanding probability from the post that you quoted. Perhaps it's a semantics issue. I assume that it was understood that when I said "random", that I meant random within the parameters of the drop rate. Even if you know the drop rate, the "random" aspect is how long, or how many samples it takes for that drop rate to manifest. It's simply the Law of large numbers in practice. My exceptionally good luck, and the OPs exceptionally bad luck are clear indications that we haven't evened out enough to realize the true drop rate, and there's no telling when we will. Our streaks of luck (good and bad) might end this week, or it might keep running for the next year. THAT is the random part, as the Law of large numbers doesn't say HOW large the numbers must be.
Edit: Or perhaps I simply stated my thoughts poorly. It all made/makes sense in my head. The inability to structure my thoughts into a readable format has always been one of my weaknesses.
And there have been other periods of 5 - 10 hours of rifts where all I get is legendary component craft mats and crap legs. So.. yea..
"RnG is RnG yo!" - except.. I still highly, highly, highly doubt it really works...