I was thinking that this thread was bogus yesterday but now that I have been watching my junk not selling and WOW yup its true. MY stuff has gone and past all week long, so I was just going to hold everything of decent value. Hoping the market returns and I can pick up some other gear for different toons that I have yet to build. Hopefully all will be normal again soon enough, but AFTER I buy some good weapons
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Sometimes you don't always know where you stand... until you know that you won't run away.
From what I see, everything in the GAH is grossly overpriced.
Also, tons of people are dropping out from the game.
There used to be around 1000 public games, now there's only about 300.
1000 was very little to begin with, and now...
I know that the game is single player, but I'm assuming that the people who played in public games would normally keep playing public games.
Now, I don't know much, but that seems like a large drop-off of players D:
A so-so level 63, and good level 62 and a great level 61 all have the same stats. On top of that, more and more players are farming ActI/inferno, and putting lots of great 61s, some good 62s and a few so-so 63s onto the AH. So the supply of underwhelming Inferno rares is vastly exceeding demand.
Conclusion: Dirt-cheap ActI/Inferno items is proof that the playerbase hasn't crashed.
I think all of us who are still playing are getting closer and closer to the theoretical best gear, and as we continuously improve, the market for ilvl 61 & 62, or "pretty good" gear is dwindling.
It's odd, because I expected with the gold situation, for there to be a gold saturation, raising prices, when just the opposite happenned.
I'm only having luck selling good weapons nowadays. I've been trying to sell a +100str, +50'ish vit, 450 loh amulet for like 2 weeks now. Comparable amulets have prices were about 2 million gold, so I put it up for 1.5 mil. Now it's at 900k and still getting no bids. Maybe I should toss it on the RMAH and see if it sells.
From what I see, everything in the GAH is grossly overpriced.
Also, tons of people are dropping out from the game.
There used to be around 1000 public games, now there's only about 300.
1000 was very little to begin with, and now...
I know that the game is single player, but I'm assuming that the people who played in public games would normally keep playing public games.
Now, I don't know much, but that seems like a large drop-off of players D:
The 'public games' counter only shows public games on your shard with less than four people in it. The original code preferred to put people into 'open' games that only had one person in it, which means that there were a lot of games with empty slots. Blizzard recently(ish) changed the code so that it much more biased toward filling up open games. That's why there's been a sharp decline in that number.
Also, tons of people are dropping out from the game.
There used to be around 1000 public games, now there's only about 300.
1000 was very little to begin with, and now...
To be fair, there are plenty of over-priced items out there. I'd guess 20-30% of people using the AH to list things just bang in a round number without checking for what similar is listed at. However; those are the same people listing amazing items for peanuts when they err in the wrong direction.
Like any market, it's going to take a while to move toward equilibrium and every new fotm build, patch note, and bug fix will likely shove demand or supply around a bit. At present, all but the most fotm gear is relatively affordable. Really the only way to bankrupt yourself and get nothing for your gold is to spend less than an hour buying a full set of act3-quality tornado barb gear, which almost everyone seems to be doing now.
Saw this thread a few days ago, thought to myself "well, let me see how things are going to turn out in the next couple days before saying something".
Well, here I am 2 days later, sold around 2.5 mil in items (yeah I know, not much by some standards, by it's still a 10% increase in my net gold).
One of them was a crappy 2 handed Mighty Weapon that had 1k dps, but had lvl-requirement reduced by 9, it sold for 250k (should have priced it higher, the best weapon at the AH when I listed it was at 330~ dps for 600k.
So all in all, I'd say people are pricing their items wrongly. Maybe not, maybe they're pricing it correctly, but the people still playing the game have learned their lesson that throwing away their gold instead of spending it smartly will eventually make them go bankrupt.
Some item prices are dropping everyday (unlike what guys like Kripparian foresaw that prices would rise infinitely and gold would be worth nothing in a couple months), and gold definitely still has value (mostly because gems/crafting cost a fixed price and will always be useful as well).
So all in all, I'd say people are pricing their items wrongly. Maybe not, maybe they're pricing it correctly, but the people still playing the game have learned their lesson that throwing away their gold instead of spending it smartly will eventually make them go bankrupt.
I think there's another factor kicking in. Once I got to a point where I could farm ActI easily and ActII... well enough... I just stopped buying stuff outright (unless it was stupidly low-priced). Because I didn't need stuff ASAP (because ZOMG I need to get farming) I was happy to wait for the auction timer and see what happens. These days, I never buy outright and I never bid unless I think the price is a little low. I can't help wondering if that's an increasingly common story.
I also can't help wondering if people are being increasingly careful with their purchases because they're saving up for the new legendaries.
So all in all, I'd say people are pricing their items wrongly. Maybe not, maybe they're pricing it correctly, but the people still playing the game have learned their lesson that throwing away their gold instead of spending it smartly will eventually make them go bankrupt.
I'm glad you're finding some success. I've had some defunct orders the last couple of days, probably due to the fact I didn't study the market more than a few seconds before listing. Lesson learned.
Some item prices are dropping everyday (unlike what guys like Kripparian foresaw that prices would rise infinitely and gold would be worth nothing in a couple months), and gold definitely still has value (mostly because gems/crafting cost a fixed price and will always be useful as well).
I haven't noticed much of the barb gear dropping, but it's certainly not skyrocketing. Having just begun to look at wizard gear in general though, it seems to have trended down a lot since I was on my WD who shares most of the same stats. As for Kripp, I really have no idea how he came to that conclusion, but I don't follow him so I haven't heard his logic.
I think there's another factor kicking in. Once I got to a point where I could farm ActI easily and ActII... well enough... I just stopped buying stuff outright (unless it was stupidly low-priced). Because I didn't need stuff ASAP (because ZOMG I need to get farming) I was happy to wait for the auction timer and see what happens. These days, I never buy outright and I never bid unless I think the price is a little low. I can't help wondering if that's an increasingly common story.
That has always been my approach, even when I was struggling in act1-2. I wouldn't say it's the norm now, since my experience has always been most people in-general are impulse buyers (i'm guilty of it from time to time).
@Proletaria: I definitely had some items returned to me as well. One of them was my "lottery ticket of the week", a shield with 6 decent affixes (vit, life%, mf, crit chance, reduc cc and elite dmg) and some high rolls priced at 150 mil, it obviously didn't sell.. but it's hard to gauge how much these are worth..
I don't watch all Kripp's videos or stream, it's just one video a friend of mine sent where I saw him saying "oh you have 500 million gold, spend it all in high-end stuff because gold will be worthless in no time due to them botzers with 200 accounts"
High end stuff isn't dropping a lot in price, but average stuff seems to be, because many people know what is currently selling and they want a slice of the pie as well. I've had a nice helm drop with Str, ResAll, Crit Chance (average rolls) not worth 100k.
I think there's another factor kicking in. Once I got to a point where I could farm ActI easily and ActII... well enough... I just stopped buying stuff outright (unless it was stupidly low-priced). Because I didn't need stuff ASAP (because ZOMG I need to get farming) I was happy to wait for the auction timer and see what happens. These days, I never buy outright and I never bid unless I think the price is a little low. I can't help wondering if that's an increasingly common story.
True. I do pretty much the same thing with my gold management.
I also can't help wondering if people are being increasingly careful with their purchases because they're saving up for the new legendaries.
Well, let's hope they actually start dropping then so I can get some gold to upgrade all my gems
So how exactly do you gauge an items true gold worth, if there are 4 items on the AH similar to yours, but they aer all stupidly overpriced ?
How you do find that middleground, if all other comparisons are way too high? How will you know what the golden sell limit will be and what wont?
Ask everybody playing diablo 3 what they would pay or how much gold they got?
Why would your friends necessesarily know how much its worth?
Asking for pricechecks isn't gonna help you much,. if the people you are asking, have no clue.. just like you (which they don't)
:D?
I perform a search of items with similar stats (less & more) I tend to look at the high/mid/low prices and get a ballpark feel of what the item should be worth. I generally price it on the lower end of the price ranges available (if they are in reason i.e. not 50 mil). If my auction doesn't sell I repost it but drop the price by 5%, repeat till it sells.
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Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
So how exactly do you gauge an items true gold worth, if there are 4 items on the AH similar to yours, but they aer all stupidly overpriced ?
How you do find that middleground, if all other comparisons are way too high? How will you know what the golden sell limit will be and what wont?
Ask everybody playing diablo 3 what they would pay or how much gold they got?
Why would your friends necessesarily know how much its worth?
Asking for pricechecks isn't gonna help you much,. if the people you are asking, have no clue.. just like you (which they don't)
:D?
You post the item for what you believe may be its value, and if it doesn't sell, you repost it for lower. It's a guess and check system, always has been.
So how exactly do you gauge an items true gold worth, if there are 4 items on the AH similar to yours, but they aer all stupidly overpriced ?
There is no value written in stone. Value is what someone will pay for it or what someone is willing to take in exchange for it, depending on how the market is slanted. If there are four other items on the AH, obviously overpriced and recieving no bids, I would list notably lower. If those four items are all 10mil, i'd list at 7mil. Chances are someone will see a 3mil profit margin and ignore the fact the other four aren't moving. Voila, you have a sale.
Of course that won't always work. Sometimes you have to broaden your search to similar items (drop the stats down by a significant amount, see how the prices look) and make sure you aren't looking at stuff that's already marked too high, in which case you would want to drop the price further to facilitate a quick sale.
But fact of the matter is... that finding and guessing the true price of an item will always be very subjective and everchanging from day to day... so in other words... quite impossible.
Yes, it is impossible to figure out what the true equilibrium market value is for a given item at a given point in time. However; that doesn't prevent you from coming very close to that price and making a sale.
Especially if its a high end item, that not alot of other dudes have. or a medium-high item...
The AH is full of medium-high roll rares. I think you'll find in most cases there are enough similar items to make an educated guess at what people are listing like-items for and thus what you should list yours at. Looking at how many similar items are there and their time left at auction should help illustrate how accurate their guess was.
It gets boring after awhile, doing endless pricechecks and relisting them because nobody bought it... and no surefire way to know what the item is worth, given that most items are overpriced or simply not similar to your item specifically.
It takes me less time now than it used to, but yeah, it is going to be a chore. In much the same way spamming trade chat and/or haggling in trade games used to be in D2. There is room for improvement in the AH and I would especially like to see options for editing sell price periodically (say, once every hour) or being able to close an auction early after so many hours. On the whole; however, I think the AH functions as a far superior means of trade than barter ever was.
And let us not forget, you're still free to barter if you prefer that method.
From what I see, everything in the GAH is grossly overpriced.
Also, tons of people are dropping out from the game.
There used to be around 1000 public games, now there's only about 300.
1000 was very little to begin with, and now...
I know that the game is single player, but I'm assuming that the people who played in public games would normally keep playing public games.
Now, I don't know much, but that seems like a large drop-off of players D:
Psst ... that number you see is not the "number of games being played right now" ... the number you see is: "The number of games with 1 spot open for you to join".
So yea .. that number is not the "total games public games" right now ... it's the number of games that need 1 or more people.
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Also, tons of people are dropping out from the game.
There used to be around 1000 public games, now there's only about 300.
1000 was very little to begin with, and now...
I know that the game is single player, but I'm assuming that the people who played in public games would normally keep playing public games.
Now, I don't know much, but that seems like a large drop-off of players D:
Conclusion: Dirt-cheap ActI/Inferno items is proof that the playerbase hasn't crashed.
A ) Already lvl 60.
B ) Tired of leveling up new toons.
C ) Wearing decent gear for Inferno.
Therefore, you can put up fairly decent gear for 1 gold and nobody will buy it.
Everybody is already wearing better.
If I'm going to buy something, it's gotta be better than what I've got... And most everything that's better than what I got is on the RMAH...
There's just no end game.
It's odd, because I expected with the gold situation, for there to be a gold saturation, raising prices, when just the opposite happenned.
Funny, i'm still making gold by the bundle selling blues with mf, ar, crit, loh, etc. Clearly this is just high-end sales though, yes?
Most of your post is:
A) Wrong
Projecting your feelings onto others
C) Wearing on everyone's nerves
Yeah, if you bought a lot of elite items from the RMAH, you essentially skipped the gear-hunt in a gear-hunt game.
Battle.net Profile / Diablo Progress Profile
The 'public games' counter only shows public games on your shard with less than four people in it. The original code preferred to put people into 'open' games that only had one person in it, which means that there were a lot of games with empty slots. Blizzard recently(ish) changed the code so that it much more biased toward filling up open games. That's why there's been a sharp decline in that number.
Sold multiple items for millions of gold in recent weeks. Guess they aren't that overpriced. Maybe you're just underfunded?
Patch notes and game updates, wut r thoze?
wut?
Like any market, it's going to take a while to move toward equilibrium and every new fotm build, patch note, and bug fix will likely shove demand or supply around a bit. At present, all but the most fotm gear is relatively affordable. Really the only way to bankrupt yourself and get nothing for your gold is to spend less than an hour buying a full set of act3-quality tornado barb gear, which almost everyone seems to be doing now.
Well, here I am 2 days later, sold around 2.5 mil in items (yeah I know, not much by some standards, by it's still a 10% increase in my net gold).
One of them was a crappy 2 handed Mighty Weapon that had 1k dps, but had lvl-requirement reduced by 9, it sold for 250k (should have priced it higher, the best weapon at the AH when I listed it was at 330~ dps for 600k.
So all in all, I'd say people are pricing their items wrongly. Maybe not, maybe they're pricing it correctly, but the people still playing the game have learned their lesson that throwing away their gold instead of spending it smartly will eventually make them go bankrupt.
Some item prices are dropping everyday (unlike what guys like Kripparian foresaw that prices would rise infinitely and gold would be worth nothing in a couple months), and gold definitely still has value (mostly because gems/crafting cost a fixed price and will always be useful as well).
I think there's another factor kicking in. Once I got to a point where I could farm ActI easily and ActII... well enough... I just stopped buying stuff outright (unless it was stupidly low-priced). Because I didn't need stuff ASAP (because ZOMG I need to get farming) I was happy to wait for the auction timer and see what happens. These days, I never buy outright and I never bid unless I think the price is a little low. I can't help wondering if that's an increasingly common story.
I also can't help wondering if people are being increasingly careful with their purchases because they're saving up for the new legendaries.
I'm glad you're finding some success. I've had some defunct orders the last couple of days, probably due to the fact I didn't study the market more than a few seconds before listing. Lesson learned.
I haven't noticed much of the barb gear dropping, but it's certainly not skyrocketing. Having just begun to look at wizard gear in general though, it seems to have trended down a lot since I was on my WD who shares most of the same stats. As for Kripp, I really have no idea how he came to that conclusion, but I don't follow him so I haven't heard his logic.
That has always been my approach, even when I was struggling in act1-2. I wouldn't say it's the norm now, since my experience has always been most people in-general are impulse buyers (i'm guilty of it from time to time).
I haven't heard much on this front, but that could be a factor if there are speculators at work.
I don't watch all Kripp's videos or stream, it's just one video a friend of mine sent where I saw him saying "oh you have 500 million gold, spend it all in high-end stuff because gold will be worthless in no time due to them botzers with 200 accounts"
High end stuff isn't dropping a lot in price, but average stuff seems to be, because many people know what is currently selling and they want a slice of the pie as well. I've had a nice helm drop with Str, ResAll, Crit Chance (average rolls) not worth 100k.
True. I do pretty much the same thing with my gold management.
Well, let's hope they actually start dropping then so I can get some gold to upgrade all my gems
The game is dead in 2-3 months anyways, right? Hopefully people will see the end you're predicting and start buying your useless garbage.
Battle.net Profile / Diablo Progress Profile
I perform a search of items with similar stats (less & more) I tend to look at the high/mid/low prices and get a ballpark feel of what the item should be worth. I generally price it on the lower end of the price ranges available (if they are in reason i.e. not 50 mil). If my auction doesn't sell I repost it but drop the price by 5%, repeat till it sells.
You post the item for what you believe may be its value, and if it doesn't sell, you repost it for lower. It's a guess and check system, always has been.
There is no value written in stone. Value is what someone will pay for it or what someone is willing to take in exchange for it, depending on how the market is slanted. If there are four other items on the AH, obviously overpriced and recieving no bids, I would list notably lower. If those four items are all 10mil, i'd list at 7mil. Chances are someone will see a 3mil profit margin and ignore the fact the other four aren't moving. Voila, you have a sale.
Of course that won't always work. Sometimes you have to broaden your search to similar items (drop the stats down by a significant amount, see how the prices look) and make sure you aren't looking at stuff that's already marked too high, in which case you would want to drop the price further to facilitate a quick sale.
Then you're inept at utilizing the search function to find an appropriate list price.
Yes, it is impossible to figure out what the true equilibrium market value is for a given item at a given point in time. However; that doesn't prevent you from coming very close to that price and making a sale.
The AH is full of medium-high roll rares. I think you'll find in most cases there are enough similar items to make an educated guess at what people are listing like-items for and thus what you should list yours at. Looking at how many similar items are there and their time left at auction should help illustrate how accurate their guess was.
It takes me less time now than it used to, but yeah, it is going to be a chore. In much the same way spamming trade chat and/or haggling in trade games used to be in D2. There is room for improvement in the AH and I would especially like to see options for editing sell price periodically (say, once every hour) or being able to close an auction early after so many hours. On the whole; however, I think the AH functions as a far superior means of trade than barter ever was.
And let us not forget, you're still free to barter if you prefer that method.
Psst ... that number you see is not the "number of games being played right now" ... the number you see is: "The number of games with 1 spot open for you to join".
So yea .. that number is not the "total games public games" right now ... it's the number of games that need 1 or more people.