I'm glad you are on the same page other than the Math side of things. My question is what implications this will have on drop % and gameplay? Kinda forces you to be in a 4 person group.
Example: you have a coin and you are trying to get heads.
SP - you are allowed to flip the coin once so its 50% chance
MP - you are allowed to flip the coin four times so it's 93% chance
of course it is still possible that all four flips results in tails but its not as likely when flipping the coin once.
This is exaggerated just to show the increase. the increase of something with a .001% chance is not increased that greatly. Again, this is just saying its increased but not by 4.
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This is stupid. You get 4 times the loot, but there are 4 people that want it. 4/4 = 1/1. End of story. You don't need any more math than that.
So if there's 4 people in a game and you kill the boss solo without 4 people in your game it's the same as killing the boss solo even though he's 4 times harder?
Okay, so we have four people. A babarian, a witch doctor, a demon hunter, and a monk. A staff drops, the Barbarian picks it up, a sword drops, and the monk picks it up. The monk and the barbarian trade.
Voila, that 4/4 suddenly turns into 4/1 due to co-operation.
Granted, that's assuming your party members are not dicks. And considering this is Diablo we are talking about, random party members will most likely be complete dicks.
This is stupid. You get 4 times the loot, but there are 4 people that want it. 4/4 = 1/1. End of story. You don't need any more math than that.
So if there's 4 people in a game and you kill the boss solo without 4 people in your game it's the same as killing the boss solo even though he's 4 times harder?
*edit: clarity
Maybe if nobody helped you, it should drop all the loot for you. It drops 4 times the loot, equally divided between the people who actually killed it. In my opinion, you should't be able to solo a 4-times-harder boss, unless you really outlevel him (in which case the loot will be pretty much useless for you).
Okay, so we have four people. A babarian, a witch doctor, a demon hunter, and a monk. A staff drops, the Barbarian picks it up, a sword drops, and the monk picks it up. The monk and the barbarian trade.
Voila, that 4/4 suddenly turns into 4/1 due to co-operation.
Granted, that's assuming your party members are not dicks. And considering this is Diablo we are talking about, random party members will most likely be complete dicks.
This is exactly my point, if you do not have a cooperative team you are gimping your ability to get gear quickly. I think a catalog of the items available would be sweet to kinda create a wanted list to share with your 4 person team.
This is stupid. You get 4 times the loot, but there are 4 people that want it. 4/4 = 1/1. End of story. You don't need any more math than that.
So if there's 4 people in a game and you kill the boss solo without 4 people in your game it's the same as killing the boss solo even though he's 4 times harder?
*edit: clarity
Maybe if nobody helped you, it should drop all the loot for you. It drops 4 times the loot, equally divided between the people who actually killed it. In my opinion, you should't be able to solo a 4-times-harder boss, unless you really outlevel him (in which case the loot will be pretty much useless for you).
If there's no change in amount of loot dropped with more players, what's the point of playing with them? If there's no advantage to having a 4-player party, I won't be encouraged to be in parties.
Unless they made it so that certain items only drop if you're in a party of 4. That could get interesting, but that would also anger those who like to solo.
Edit: to be clear here, I'm not completely disagreeing with you, I'm just thinking aloud.
There's no advantage, but there's no disadvantage either. You should be in a party because you want to, not because you'll get better loot. That's the way I see it, and I think it's the fairest and most rational way to handle multiplayer loot.
And 4-player-party-only items sounds lke a bad idea. I do recall them saying there won't be any multiplayer-only content.
Isn't this exactly the same as D2? With 4 players, didn't you have something like a 360% increase in the drop rate? Again, under the same assumption that you were with people who were all looking to mutually benefit each other and give each other items that would benefit each other, you would find items quicker (as the increase in enemy HP was no where near enough to compensate, as the AI was horrible)
Also, you are discounting the fact that items for other classes have worth to any player. They can be broken down into materials for crafting, or sold for gold (which will have some use)
You eventually get a prisoners dilemma, in which every player will combined be better off if they trade all items, but if you get a great item for another class that gives you lots of gold, you can just lie and tell them you got a broken club as a drop.
I can't see how the number of item drops would not increase with more players. If 3 items drop off the boss solo and you have 4 people in the game does 1 person get shafted?
Ifc course the chance of getting a item increase with each run.
For the sake of easy argument, imagine item A drop with 50% prob in a run. In one run you have 50% prob of getting item A and 50% of not getting item A. The expected amount of droped items A is 0.5
In two runs you have 25% prob of getting two itens A, 50% chance of getting one item A and 25% chance of getting no item A. The expected amount of droped itens is now 1 (50%*1+25%*2). Each time you make another run, the expected value of getting your item will increase (and the expected value of getting nothing will decrease). What remains constant is the prob of getting a item in that particular try, not in the whole experiement (total runs).
I'm sorry, but no. Just, no. In this scenario, each time you run this, the probability of getting A is 50% - it doesn't change just because you do it more. When flipping a coin, the chance of heads on attempt 1 is the same as attempt 1027 and so on. However, there are statistical distributions that can estimate the probability of success (getting your item) in a set number of runs or even the estimated number of runs it would take given the right probabilities (drop rates, etc). I remember figuring out this sort of stuff when I was doing Rivendare mount runs in WoW. Math is fun!
Don't be stupid.
When flipping a coin the chance of heads in attempt one is the same as in attempt 1027, but not the same in 1027 attempts. You're looking at the probability of the drop while you should be looking at the expected value of getting the drop.
What makes anyone think Blizzard hasn't already thought about this? Diablo 3 is the development team's job, they are paid to think about Diablo 3.. What makes anyone think they'd miss something so obvious? There are plenty of solutions for this assumed problem, all of which have likely been mapped out with color coded sticky notes, tested in game, reiterated, tested again, then swapped for the next idea until they all choose one.
“We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.” - Albert Einstein
What makes anyone think Blizzard hasn't already thought about this? Diablo 3 is the development team's job, they are paid to think about Diablo 3.. What makes anyone think they'd miss something so obvious? There are plenty of solutions for this assumed problem, all of which have likely been mapped out with color coded sticky notes, tested in game, reiterated, tested again, then swapped for the next idea until they all choose one.
Well, obviously the Diablo 3 team has figured it out. There is probably nothing we can think of that they haven't figured out or are working on right now. But, to paraphrase Richard Feynman, it's fun to imagine!
Don't be stupid.
When flipping a coin the chance of heads in attempt one is the same as in attempt 1027, but not the same in 1027 attempts. You're looking at the probability of the drop while you should be looking at the expected value of getting the drop.
I feel we may be splitting hairs over terminology (and I may have mis-worded myself before). Yes, the probability of achieving a success over X attempts will be greater than X-1 attempts, and so on. However, each individual time you do the run, the probability of a success does not change. Thus, even though you're on your 100th run to try and get that item with a 1% drop rate, it's never guaranteed to drop. But, over those entire 100 runs, the probability of seeing that item is certainly greater than 1%.
In fact, the formula for finding the probability of a drop over a certain number of runs is: 1 - [(1-x)^y], where x is the item's drop rate and y is the number of runs.
That equation is the correct one. However it is for one individual, that calculation must be applied each d3 player so item percentages when smoothed across the population, preserve rarity. With that in mind, a team is still far more effective than any one individual, even if that one individual is banging out runs with 3 other random people.
I'm glad because I never got godly uber well geared in D2, became pretty well geared on my characters but I never botted and botting was really the only way to get good gear.
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I would rather have my own loot than having to give it to someone else because they RNGpwnt me and rolled higher. Screw wow in that aspect. And the more I think about it, Screw d1/2 in that aspect. I dont like giving up loots YALL
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SP - you are allowed to flip the coin once so its 50% chance
MP - you are allowed to flip the coin four times so it's 93% chance
of course it is still possible that all four flips results in tails but its not as likely when flipping the coin once.
This is exaggerated just to show the increase. the increase of something with a .001% chance is not increased that greatly. Again, this is just saying its increased but not by 4.
Find any Diablo news? Contact me or anyone else on the News team
Which would collect more/better loot faster?
A ) One pally bot running one Baal run over and over?
B ) Eight pally bots running eight Baal runs over and over?
The OP is just using this logic.
So if there's 4 people in a game and you kill the boss solo without 4 people in your game it's the same as killing the boss solo even though he's 4 times harder?
*edit: clarity
Voila, that 4/4 suddenly turns into 4/1 due to co-operation.
Granted, that's assuming your party members are not dicks. And considering this is Diablo we are talking about, random party members will most likely be complete dicks.
Maybe if nobody helped you, it should drop all the loot for you. It drops 4 times the loot, equally divided between the people who actually killed it. In my opinion, you should't be able to solo a 4-times-harder boss, unless you really outlevel him (in which case the loot will be pretty much useless for you).
This is exactly my point, if you do not have a cooperative team you are gimping your ability to get gear quickly. I think a catalog of the items available would be sweet to kinda create a wanted list to share with your 4 person team.
If there's no change in amount of loot dropped with more players, what's the point of playing with them? If there's no advantage to having a 4-player party, I won't be encouraged to be in parties.
Unless they made it so that certain items only drop if you're in a party of 4. That could get interesting, but that would also anger those who like to solo.
Edit: to be clear here, I'm not completely disagreeing with you, I'm just thinking aloud.
And 4-player-party-only items sounds lke a bad idea. I do recall them saying there won't be any multiplayer-only content.
You eventually get a prisoners dilemma, in which every player will combined be better off if they trade all items, but if you get a great item for another class that gives you lots of gold, you can just lie and tell them you got a broken club as a drop.
Don't be stupid.
When flipping a coin the chance of heads in attempt one is the same as in attempt 1027, but not the same in 1027 attempts. You're looking at the probability of the drop while you should be looking at the expected value of getting the drop.
Well, obviously the Diablo 3 team has figured it out. There is probably nothing we can think of that they haven't figured out or are working on right now. But, to paraphrase Richard Feynman, it's fun to imagine!
I feel we may be splitting hairs over terminology (and I may have mis-worded myself before). Yes, the probability of achieving a success over X attempts will be greater than X-1 attempts, and so on. However, each individual time you do the run, the probability of a success does not change. Thus, even though you're on your 100th run to try and get that item with a 1% drop rate, it's never guaranteed to drop. But, over those entire 100 runs, the probability of seeing that item is certainly greater than 1%.
In fact, the formula for finding the probability of a drop over a certain number of runs is: 1 - [(1-x)^y], where x is the item's drop rate and y is the number of runs.
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