47 replies to this topic

[johnnyraro]

Hey guys these is a topic about the New Patch 1.0.7 and speculation for the AH economy.

I would like for all flippers to share their expeculations on this post.

Such as: Should invest in the Gem market? or Crafting material Market? or Invest in the normal items such as weapons, jewelery(amulets and rings)?

Please post your expeculations and the reason behind it

[Zero(pS)]

I think this ship has sailed already. If you wanted to make gold with 1.0.7 you should probably have acted as soon as the patch notes  (or blue posts on the matter) came out.

I'll give you my 2 cents on the matter though.

Some Crafting Plans have gone up in price (mostly legendaries), then fell down again (go figure). Crafting Materials have become a lot more expensive, because people are saving to craft the new items/recipes. Emeralds have become a bit more expensive (from what I remember), probably because of the new Marquise gems. Rubies seem to have skyrocketed again (after falling into "normal" price a few moths after the Paragon system was released).

Flipping items (both in the GAH, and between both AH) still seems to be possible, but the AH market isn't nearly as active as it was a couple months ago from my PoV. I came back and put up some great deals that just aren't selling (mostly for WD and Monks). A lot of people have left the game because of the AH, so that's a factor as well.

I'm not an expert AH user, though, so don't take my word for it. Unless a few other users confirm all this

[GroentjeBE]

I tried searching good deals on SoJ's. Because of dmg vs elites = dmg vs player. Rings will be flipped in about 2 weeks.

[johnnyraro]

GroentjeBE, on 28 January 2013 - 07:52 AM, said:

I tried searching good deals on SoJ's. Because of dmg vs elites = dmg vs player. Rings will be flipped in about 2 weeks.

The SOJ's are a nice investment, but, hmm keep nin mind on the stats u would be missing on a ring, both on a defensive(all res, armor, life regen) and offensive(avg dmg, primary stat, vit, Att Spd, CC, CDmg) point of view. I would maybe invest in 5 SOJ's or less depending on whish class will use it...

[johnnyraro]

People who are reading this topic please share your opinions and speculations...

[Bagstone]

It's like investing in the stock market - gambling. There's no proper reasoning behind many changes, despite what so-called "experts" say. Remember the first announcement that a crafting fix is incoming, somewhere in December - brimstones went up from 10k to 80k, many people sold their brimstones and got rich, and many people bought brimstones and thought they would get rich. There were even some crazy people predicting the brimstone price would go up to several 100k's. In the end, the best reaction was to anticipate this hype early and sell your brimstones for 100k+ within a few hours after the post.

Right now, all the craziness has settled, you're too late for any good AH flipping deal. Besides, not many people do AH flipping (I think it's the most boring thing you can do in D3 and for me personally it has nothing to do with the game itself), and the AH flipping experts won't share their winning strategy here, for obvious reasons.

[BenAlpha]

windforce.

[johnnyraro]

BenAlpha, on 28 January 2013 - 08:55 AM, said:

windforce.

What stats on the windforce would u look for? Socket or go for one with high CDmg(>80%)???

[johnnyraro]

Bagstone, on 28 January 2013 - 08:54 AM, said:

It's like investing in the stock market - gambling. There's no proper reasoning behind many changes, despite what so-called "experts" say. Remember the first announcement that a crafting fix is incoming, somewhere in December - brimstones went up from 10k to 80k, many people sold their brimstones and got rich, and many people bought brimstones and thought they would get rich. There were even some crazy people predicting the brimstone price would go up to several 100k's. In the end, the best reaction was to anticipate this hype early and sell your brimstones for 100k+ within a few hours after the post.

Right now, all the craziness has settled, you're too late for any good AH flipping deal. Besides, not many people do AH flipping (I think it's the most boring thing you can do in D3 and for me personally it has nothing to do with the game itself), and the AH flipping experts won't share their winning strategy here, for obvious reasons.

hmm, true, m8, no AH experts would be willing to share their strategies. One of the possible investments people r forgetting is GOLD... On EU is been a flat 0.25Euros, this weekend it rose to 0.27Euros on average last trades, according to D3RMT.com.

Because crafting is a basic gold sink hole, i predict the gold price going up high, dont know how much but i hope it passes 1Euro

[m4st0d0n]

Quote

but i hope it passes 1Euro

Not happening. Blame the goldfarmers, outside RMAH gold is much cheaper to get. I expect some rise in gold prices but not on the scale of 300%

[johnnyraro]

m4st0d0n, on 28 January 2013 - 09:41 AM, said:

Quote

but i hope it passes 1Euro

Not happening. Blame the goldfarmers, outside RMAH gold is much cheaper to get. I expect some rise in gold prices but not on the scale of 300%

True. Bu tmost goldfarmers aka Botters, were banned, and i did look on the ah, and items with +% Gold Find are not selling that much as before. I predict it may go up in value because noobs would rather invest in 5m gold worth of crafting material and have say the chance the roll a trifecta or quadfecta amulet, in say 50-75 crafts...

[Chiron]

Gold price might increase when 1.0.7 hits but I too think that it wont be significant. I've read posts on some forums where people complain that they'd have hundreds of millions of gold to sell but nobody is buying. So I think that even if people would start to buy more gold after 1.0.7, the demand would have to increase A LOT for it to affect the gold price as there is just so much gold in the market.

[johnnyraro]

Oh Well, we will just have to wait an see then. So any one mind sharing some Flipping Formula for items (stats) ??

[Bagstone]

There is no flipping formula, and if there was one, and it would be publicly posted, it wouldn't work anymore. It's like on the stock market; if you're the only one to anticipate a trend before it happens, you can get rich; if it's being posted on the NYT, it might create a bubble and you'll lose money.

Focus on some items you think are worthwhile, follow prices for these and similar items for a while, and once you have a good feeling for the market you can start "flipping" items. There's no shortcut - it takes some time to familiarize with prices and learn how to identify auctions that have a buyout price that is too low. You might need to react in a split second, otherwise someone else will buy said item because there are quite a few AH flippers.

Edited by Bagstone, 28 January 2013 - 12:59 PM.

[johnnyraro]

Bagstone, on 28 January 2013 - 12:58 PM, said:

There is no flipping formula, and if there was one, and it would be publicly posted, it wouldn't work anymore. It's like on the stock market; if you're the only one to anticipate a trend before it happens, you can get rich; if it's being posted on the NYT, it might create a bubble and you'll lose money.

Focus on some items you think are worthwhile, follow prices for these and similar items for a while, and once you have a good feeling for the market you can start "flipping" items. There's no shortcut - it takes some time to familiarize with prices and learn how to identify auctions that have a buyout price that is too low. You might need to react in a split second, otherwise someone else will buy said item because there are quite a few AH flippers.

what i mean by "Formula" is combination of stats, meaning what stats on items r selling...

[Bagstone]

High main stat is mandatory for almost all items; and then the usual stuff like CC, CD, IAS, LS, LoH... (see Jaetch's Urban Dictionary if you don't know what these abbreviations mean). But seriously, it depends so much on which item you're flipping... you'll find out once you take a closer look at the AH.

[m4st0d0n]

High stats combined with other high stats are selling

[growash]

Well I think you can pretty much expect the same price jumps happening after PTR patchnotes release to happen in larger scale when the patch hits. That means brimstones and gems for the crafted amultes as well as essences for gloves at least will go up in price. There are a lot of causual players who are not already decked in those things (people with usually not more than a few mil gold to their disposal) and who will buy a few things from the AH to craft the new items. Sure those people will also try to farm a lot of the stuff themselves, but you know once you get startet with crafting most people will want to continue even though their farmed mats are already used up so they will spend some mil to buy some more from the AH. It's like playing the slot machine and you tell yourself "well this time it will be it!". Maybe the the gain will not bee too dramatic for the mats but I guess prices will stay higher even after the initial price peak in patch week.

So I think people are wrong saying that you cannot profit anymore from the patch. Prizes for brimstones halved again in the last week compared to before PTR. And most people don't even read forums/patchnotes so there will be increased demand after patch and thus the prices will go up.

[Bagstone]

Sure, we might be wrong about saying that it's too late. But keep in mind where brimstones come from - cheap, useless legendaries. Since people need lots of demonic essences for crafting, and you NEED to farm these yourselves, a lot of people are overestimating the effect of the AH. Same with gems - right now there's almost no incentive to pick up gems, but if you want to craft some amulets you'll start picking them up again, because going from Flawless Square to Perfect is doable for casual gamers, no need to go crazy on the AH.

It's just gambling. You might win, you might lose. I'll be coming back with 1.07 to play the game (given that I have time), not the AH, but too each his own :-)

[Douillos]

I think there will be some good deals with amulets once the patch hits, with all the new craft material.
But then again I play HC and the AH is sooooo much more active.