BatuKMan, on 23 December 2012 - 04:45 PM, said:
I'm too lazy to write it myself, so here it is:
Too lazy? Or clueless about statistical analysis?
Taking your OP into consideration, I would bet my money on it being the latter.
DieHardBastionFan, on 23 December 2012 - 08:26 PM, said:
The probablity of an event with a 0.5 chance of happening (not getting a key) to happen only once out of 30 times is (0.530) x 30. That is 2,794 x 10-8, which in turn is 1 in 35,791,394. Just so you know.
When calculating such odds, I believe it's customary to include the probability of the event of not finding a key out of the 30 runs as well. This is because the converse of only getting 1 key out of 30 should be the probability of getting 2 or more keys, not 2 or more and 0 keys.
So the odds should be 31*0.530
which changes everything!