Good points by all. I didn't expect any less from those that believe in true randomization nor from those who are more inclined to believe there is more to it than that.
But I challenge you to do the following:
1. Keep track of your next 50 to 100 or so legendary drops. Without regard to whether or not the actual 'rolls' were decent, pay attention to how that particular item sells on the AH. If you were to graph them in order of frequency (and I have) you would see that things such as Tormentor, Promise of Glory, Ivory Tower and the like occupy a disproportionately large percentage compared to say, Skorn, Manticore, Witching Hour.
2. Log off for a day (over 24 hours) on 3 separate occassions and pay attention to the number of legendaries you loot in the first 1-2 hours of game play. Now extrapolate that number over the number of hours you have (approximately) played on Inferno difficulty. This simple test will show you the large relative frequency of set/legendary over those first few runs when you log back on.
3. Since there isn't an easy way to do the RMAH test, just ask anyone who has over say, 1000+ hours of game play and frequently makes sales on the RMAH. Really scrutinize them about their answers to how many legendary drops they are afforded compared to someone who only uses the gold AH.
Until then, happy flaming, and let the discussion continue!
Based on 1200+ hours of game play, over 1000 of which were spent heavily farming act 3 inferno, and countless interviews with other veteran players of the game, I have concluded the following:
1. Blizzard will allow more legendaries/sets to drop for a player/account that has been logged off for a certain amount of time. The threshold for this seems to be a day or longer. If an account stays logged off for less than that, there seems to be no increase legendary/set drops. A reason for this may be that an account that has been logged off for a large amount of time is in danger of being permanently lost to Blizzard as a potential source of income (RMAH sales) and thus needs incentive to be played.
2. Blizzard uses the AH to determine what is allowed to drop in game. On a per player basis, you may still see great items drop, but on a large scale, the less an item is being purchased from the auction house, the greater the chances of it being selected when a legendary/set does drop. This is why you might see 20 andariel's drop before a mempo does. The incentive to limit the drop rate of items that have a greater potential to be 'good' is that too many of such items in circulation would limit their value, reducing gold sales as well as the viability of replacement items. Additionally, if items were allowed to drop freely, the correlation between play time and in game gold would skyrocket, again reducing the need for RMAH purchases.
3. Blizzard green flags certain accounts for an increase in legendary/set drops after a threshold of RMAH sales are met. This is because only a limited number players have the impetus to use the RMAH to sell a high enough grade of items to procure profit for Blizzard. Players who would rather use the gold auction house are of lesser importance to the company in this respect and thus receive no such bonus.
4. The main reasons for the above implementations is that Blizzard:
- realizes it has to maintain a balance between the economy tanking and allowing enough legendary/set items to drop without upsetting the general population
- understandably wants to make the most money that it can out of Diablo 3
- knows that the biggest current deterrent for players are quantity/quality of legendary/set drops
- knows that the first sign of a player potentially quitting Diablo 3 is an extended log off period
5. There are likely more formulas/coding in place allowing Blizzard to efficiently balance legendary/set drops, player 'satisfaction' with drops, and RMAH sales through either item sales or gold purchases. However, for this author, only the above statements are the only ones he has verified to be accurate through enough gameplay and informal interviews with other players. The author will also update this information in the future if there is enough evidence on other components of the legendary/set drop system.
6. I have yet to find any conclusive evidence regarding rares (yellow items).
7. Thanks for reading and I look forward to your comments, criticisms, and flame posts!
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http://i.imgur.com/DS8wg4u.png
36-67 damage
198 int
12% life
9 ias
9.5 cc
100 cd
Thanks in advance!
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But I challenge you to do the following:
1. Keep track of your next 50 to 100 or so legendary drops. Without regard to whether or not the actual 'rolls' were decent, pay attention to how that particular item sells on the AH. If you were to graph them in order of frequency (and I have) you would see that things such as Tormentor, Promise of Glory, Ivory Tower and the like occupy a disproportionately large percentage compared to say, Skorn, Manticore, Witching Hour.
2. Log off for a day (over 24 hours) on 3 separate occassions and pay attention to the number of legendaries you loot in the first 1-2 hours of game play. Now extrapolate that number over the number of hours you have (approximately) played on Inferno difficulty. This simple test will show you the large relative frequency of set/legendary over those first few runs when you log back on.
3. Since there isn't an easy way to do the RMAH test, just ask anyone who has over say, 1000+ hours of game play and frequently makes sales on the RMAH. Really scrutinize them about their answers to how many legendary drops they are afforded compared to someone who only uses the gold AH.
Until then, happy flaming, and let the discussion continue!
0
1. Blizzard will allow more legendaries/sets to drop for a player/account that has been logged off for a certain amount of time. The threshold for this seems to be a day or longer. If an account stays logged off for less than that, there seems to be no increase legendary/set drops. A reason for this may be that an account that has been logged off for a large amount of time is in danger of being permanently lost to Blizzard as a potential source of income (RMAH sales) and thus needs incentive to be played.
2. Blizzard uses the AH to determine what is allowed to drop in game. On a per player basis, you may still see great items drop, but on a large scale, the less an item is being purchased from the auction house, the greater the chances of it being selected when a legendary/set does drop. This is why you might see 20 andariel's drop before a mempo does. The incentive to limit the drop rate of items that have a greater potential to be 'good' is that too many of such items in circulation would limit their value, reducing gold sales as well as the viability of replacement items. Additionally, if items were allowed to drop freely, the correlation between play time and in game gold would skyrocket, again reducing the need for RMAH purchases.
3. Blizzard green flags certain accounts for an increase in legendary/set drops after a threshold of RMAH sales are met. This is because only a limited number players have the impetus to use the RMAH to sell a high enough grade of items to procure profit for Blizzard. Players who would rather use the gold auction house are of lesser importance to the company in this respect and thus receive no such bonus.
4. The main reasons for the above implementations is that Blizzard:
- realizes it has to maintain a balance between the economy tanking and allowing enough legendary/set items to drop without upsetting the general population
- understandably wants to make the most money that it can out of Diablo 3
- knows that the biggest current deterrent for players are quantity/quality of legendary/set drops
- knows that the first sign of a player potentially quitting Diablo 3 is an extended log off period
5. There are likely more formulas/coding in place allowing Blizzard to efficiently balance legendary/set drops, player 'satisfaction' with drops, and RMAH sales through either item sales or gold purchases. However, for this author, only the above statements are the only ones he has verified to be accurate through enough gameplay and informal interviews with other players. The author will also update this information in the future if there is enough evidence on other components of the legendary/set drop system.
6. I have yet to find any conclusive evidence regarding rares (yellow items).
7. Thanks for reading and I look forward to your comments, criticisms, and flame posts!