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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    I tried to get some players to collect data for trashmobs, but nothing appeared so far and I don't play any more.

    The quoted calculation assumes that trashmob-drops and elite drops have the same quality. As legendary items are the interesting drops, this might be true (but I did not see convincing data yet).
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from m4st0d0n

    I don't consider using hardware RNG being an overkill for a game like Diablo 3. Millions of items are generated every minute, and the economy can be easily flooded, so chances need to be infinitesimal - but still measurable. Diablo's economy is built upon probability. If math doesn't do what it's supposed to do because of a badly implemented (P)RNG, the game won't work as developers planned either.
    I think you are referring to true randomness as source for a PRNG - well, that is not relevant if the bug is somewhere in the PRNG.
    I don't think the economy is sensitive to issues of the RNG, unless it completely changes drop rates for items. If there is a bugged double drop every 100 legendary drops, we might get 1% more legendary items. So what.

    Quote from JKlimek

    Those just generate a starting point for the seed program. Even though the starting seed may be "more random" it's still not technically random from a statistical perspective.
    That was my point. A source of true randomness for every drop (perfect in terms of randomness) would be overkill.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    @Bagstone: Doubled drops/crafts appear to be too common to be explained with pure randomness. I know one player who got two pairs of identical craft items from the blacksmith, and saw many more reports of such pairs from others. 6 random affixes, exactly identical stats - while it might be possible to see that at some players in the whole Battle.Net, you would not expect that any player sees that twice.

    A nice example of bad random numbers are the superchest patterns in diablo 2. They are well-studied, and it is confirmed that they use a very small set of different seeds (2^16) to generate their drops.

    Don't get me wrong - most posts "RNG is bugged!!!!" just show that the RNG (usually) works as intended - if there would be no such posts, we would have to worry. But the RNG algorithms used for D3 are not perfect, and you can see this.

    There is no real true RNG, because computers are always deterministic.
    There is hardware to generate true random numbers from atmospheric noise or even from quantum mechanics, but that would be overkill for a computer game.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Anything I can import into excel - csv (or similar), .xls, .xlsx are no problem, other formats might be possible.

    100 legendary items in 6 days? Wow.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    If you want to contribute to a data collection: Wonderful!

    A simple way to do this, with a focus on legendary items:

    - before a run, write down your kill counters (regular mobs and elite mobs). Write down your MF-value and the used MP-level. The chosen act can be interesting as control data, too.
    - after a run after you left the ga,e, write down your kill counters again. It would be better to count the elite groups ingame, but the counter works, too.
    - during the run, note the number of legendary items from regular mobs and the number of legendary items from elite mobs.
    - for key wardens, act bosses and other special monsters (siegebreaker, ...), save the current MF-value there, NV-stacks, and the number of legendary items for each monster.

    With ~30 legendary items in the data collection, it would be possible to estimate the legendary drop rate with an uncertainty of ~20%. With 100-200, the uncertainty goes down to ~10% and it is possible to compare drop rates for elite mobs and trashmobs.


    Another interesting thing would be a calibration of the drop chances of regular mobs:
    Keep track of the total kill counter before/after cleaning 1-2 areas, those areas itself, and the total number of items (everything a character/follower can equip, not potions and so on). If you want to do it even better, split that total number by color, and keep the same MF-value during the run.


    It would be interesting to see which slot is used by plans (blacksmith+jeweler): If a plan drops, write down the complete drop (including crap items, potions, gems, whatever).
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    I would be really surprised if there is anything related to specific legendary items. I think your drops are just a random fluctuation.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    What about a 1.0.5-list of ilvl/slot distributions? Could reveal the changes to 1.0.4.


    I think I can provide plain texts of items like this:
    Name: CINCH JUSTICE
    Slot: Waist
    Quality: Rare
    Type: Belt
    Armor: 256
    Attributes:
    +84 Intelligence
    +43 Physical Resistance
    +6% Life
    20% Better Chance of Finding Magical Items
    iLvl: 62
    rLvl: 60


    Edit: We should check the color distribution for the bonus drop: Similar to slot 1/4? Similar to slot 2/3? Similar to NV slot?
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Just 1 rare from a pack can happen - with 70% chance of rare drops in slot 1 and 2, you have a ~10%-chance to get just 1 rare item.
    It should not happen at Siegebreaker, Cydaea and Azmodan.

    When there are many items on the floor, it can happen that some items are not shown. Maybe you missed one rare item this way?
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Expected Runs for Keys and Organs in 1.0.5
    I think it could be useful to add the expected numbers of keys per ring, for many rings. That is simply 3*10/MP machines per ring, and 3*10/MP runs per machine.
    Divide the first number by 4 for a full party.

    After some runs at MP 1, the 10%/MP-level assumption looks more reasonable again. However, the size of the dataset is poor, just 33 key runs, 7 plan runs plus 19 organ runs.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on [PROJECT] PTR Opportunity - Affix Research
    I can confirm that different allowed affixes have a different frequency, but the dataset is too small to extract specific numbers. When there are multiple affixes with the same stat, high-level affixes seem to be preferred in my dataset.

    I crafted 57 apprentice leather cuffs (ilvl 10). They can get 6 different prefix stats with 10 affixes and 5 different suffix stats with 1 affix each.

    Prefix distribution with "Name (affixlevel, min-max value): number":
    Gold 1 (6, 5-10): 12
    MF 1 (1, 2-5): 4
    MF 2 (6, 6-10): 4
    GoldPickupRadius 1 (1, 2-2): 4
    Experience 1 (1, 1-2): 3
    Experience 2 (5, 3-4): 2
    Experience 3 (9, 5-6): 14
    HealthGlobeBonus 1 (4, 2-29): 1
    HealthGlobeBonus 2 (10, 30-48): 12
    Regen 1 (1, 1-2): 1

    Suffix distribution:
    Str 1 Secondary (5, 1-5): 7
    Str 1 Secondary (5, 1-5): 15
    Str 1 Secondary (5, 1-5): 14
    Str 1 Secondary (5, 1-5): 10
    Thorns 1 (5, 1-1): 11

    The lower number of str-crafts is reasonable (but not significant), as there is just one char with str as main stat.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from thundersteele
    Right now I'm at 2/6 key drops with mlvl 5.

    Edit: took me 9 games to gather 3 keys and the recipe. Hinting towards 50% drop chance, but statistics is poor.
    Do you know how many games in which acts you needed? I started a data collection at indiablo - I do not expect differences between act 1-3, but maybe the plan has a different chance, and it would be easier to include the data with specific acts.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Blacksmith and Jeweler plan drop locations (need help)
    (I'm assuming plans only drop in Inferno, is that right?)
    Should be right. And 5-stat plans only in acts 2-4, and 6-stat plans only in acts 3-4.
    I think this will change with 1.0.5, and MP1+ allows to find all plans everywhere.

    Some plans seem to be much more frequent than others.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from Nubtro

    There´s supposedly a PTR patch coming tonight that should fix error 12...but I´ve uninstalled it a few days ago without playing at all. Now I´m not sure if I should bother downloading it again (it takes long and often stops). It would be nice if someone who previously couldn´t play due to that error confirms that he can (when it´s fixed).
    Confirmed.

    Interesting, you have to create a new char to copy chars, which removes this new char. Oh well, Blizzard logic.

    Edit: For key rate analysis:

    Act 1:
    MP 1 -> no key,
    MP 2 -> no key, no key,
    MP 3 -> no key,
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on 3x3 Keys and portals on PTR
    Well, you can adapt the strategy to lower MP levels, where x y z are portals and corresponding pieces:
    - if the first portal is x and you have more x than min(y,z) afterwards, open another portal, otherwise make a new game
    - if the first two portals are x and y and you have less z than max(x,y), open the third portal, otherwise make a new game
    - the other cases are symmetric

    This should give a minimal variance in the difference, and I think the expectation value for the variance has some upper bound. In particular, it is better than "x portals in every game".
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on [PROJECT] PTR Opportunity - Affix Research
    1 craft costs 30k (game guide) plus 14 essences, 3 tears and 4 tomes of secret.
    7500/30 = 250 crafts, probably less if you have to buy some of the 3250 essences.


    Apprentice Leather Cuffs (ilvl10) or Resplendent Armbands (ilvl 58) could be interesting, too. Both are magic with just 2 stats (and both can be seen in the name) and crafting costs are negligible (500-1100 gold including materials). The first one has a limited choice of affixes and might reveal some general concept, the second one is close to inferno-stats.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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