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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from Bagstone

    TL;DR: Yes, computer program are not really random, they're pseudo-random. But no, your loot does not follow any pattern that you can construct based on your previous loot, let alone anticipate to influence drops.

    I don't think I have ever mentioned the last part you say in the above quote, have I? If I somehow made it seem that way I apologize. That has never been of my interest.

    What I meant with my reply is that if things are taken to the extreme, any algorithm can be broken (otherwise it'd be quite difficult to even create one) and my point is that to some degree, everything is coded. Which is essentially equal to you saying that it is determined by the algorithms and the level of complexity of these are an evolving work.

    When I say that multiple legendaries may drop in a row and be the same item I do not sit down and say "omg hax" because in reality I have no way of knowing if the situation was caused truly because of "randomness" from the algorithm or if somehow a few factors that are imployed in the algorithm had managed to mess things up. We have to consider that it is created by humans (as far as Blizzard goes regarding humanity; pardon my humor ;) ) and will not be error-proof. One gotta admit that when the exact same item drops (and exact same I mean stats, type and all that) multiple times within close proximity of time for several players stuff looks fishy and eventually we can guess it to be a bug; which is probably caused by bad interplay between factors of the "randomness algorithm".


    Well,
    but really I just wanted to say that I never meant that loot follows any pattern that you can construct based on your previous loot.

    In any case I thank you for the small write-up.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from Sibi

    Regarding to legendary drops, something very weird happend to me yesterday:

    I was farming Act 3 in the morning when I got two (useless) legendary drops within a small distance. Now the weird part: Some hours later the exactly same legendaries dropped at the exactly same locations from the same monsters (not elite). The stats on the items were different, but they were both the same unique items..

    Something tells me, that the randomness in this game is not so random ;-)

    It is practically impossible to implement true randomness. To some degree everything will be coded so that it appears random to the masses, but it will never be truly random.

    It does, however, sound to me that what had occurred to you is a cache issue. We've seen situations before where one person finds the exact same legendary drop just a few hours after having found the first one; exact same stats etc. It is quite a few pages back though and I can not remember who found them.

    I personally have found 5 legendaries in a row which all turned out to be nat's crossbows (with different stats), and while randomness allows such to happen, the chance is close to neglible.

    TL;DR: It's not random, it's pseudorandom and fishy stuff will occur.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on The banned account analysis
    If the quality of items WOULD be worse the more you have been banned by blizzard, then that means the item creation process would involve an info-related string value which the game eventually would have to extract from the internal database of blizzard either every times a monster dies or once in a while to just update the value. Think about it; there is absolutely no reason as of why to have a file (or similar) around on peoples PC's (such as in their account folders), and hence any info would have to be extracted from a different database.

    If this was true such trafficking would be detectable by dataminers within due time and taken the time this game has been out I highly doubt such exists.

    Random is random. Pseudorandom can be almost completely random. It sucks, but that's just how it is.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from Qwaygon

    to The Master of Magic Find
    Hi, I've only read initial post, sry can't handle 54 pages, but question is very simple. in 1.0.5 legendary drop was doubled, is this reflected in graphs/tables in initial post? 0.001 drop rate you use for legendary is for 1.0.4 or 1.0.5? also where this number comes? i doubt you have big enough data pool to get that specific on legendarily, like you totally can on rares/blues.

    tnx for answer :)

    The drop rate that is given in the calculation is the one that has been doubled.
    We estimated it to be approximately 1/2000 chance for each item slot in pre-1.05. When 1.05 hit I simply doubled it to 1/1000 (= 0.001).
    We have no legitimate way of saying this is near the true value. As a matter of fact, the random deviation there is for our data around the legendary drops is, simply speaking, huge compared to the approximated distribution. We did, however, narrow down the options and eventually we settled with a nice round number (being 1/1000 at 0 MF atm).

    Keep in mind that the legendary drops are only directly reflected in the model system and this model system is, well, a model! It will never be able to actually show the true nature of the drops, only come close to it, and I believe the approximation of 1/1000 chance for legendary item at 0 MF is reasonable.

    If there is a disagreement on this then of course I will take it into consideration, but as people have already mentioned this study does not answer the underlying questions that are of legendaries. It's more about showing the trends.

    Glad you read it though, and don't worry, just reading the original post is a task in itself.

    - - -

    Quote from Bagstone

    Although I'm not one of the masters of magic find, I dare to answer.

    "The following presented data have been collected in Diablo III v. 1.0.3.10235 - v. 1.0.4.11327."
    => It's based on pre-1.05.

    Updated to:
    The following presented data have been collected in Diablo III v. 1.0.3.10235 - v. 1.0.4.11327.
    The doubled drop chance for legendaries in 1.05 have been considered for the calculations.


    Like a ninja...

    - - -

    Quote from dulac84

    do you plan on doing a study on 'randomness' of legendary drops, you might say quality here, ie. mempo or andariel, in relation to mf/mp?

    No.

    I believe there is no relation between mf/mp and the actual legendary roll. I believe that is totally up to iLvl and randomness to a certain degree.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on magic find without being 60
    Quote from Cyeron

    Quote from Andead

    The first champ pack after 5NV dropped 3 rares, 1 blue, 1 white and a chipped topaz. I was on ACT II Normal on my barb that is Plvl78, 234% MF.

    Hm, then they have changed it. Either that or MP has an effect.

    Just tested it quickly.
    Doing normal on a lvl 60 character (plvl 25) I cleared ~15 elites with MP0. Not once did they drop above 4 items even with 5xNV on.
    When doing nornam on the same character I cleared ~12 elites with MP10. Twice did they drop 5 items, but most of the time they dropped the estimated 3 or 4.

    My hunch is telling me it's the MP.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on magic find without being 60
    Quote from Andead

    The first champ pack after 5NV dropped 3 rares, 1 blue, 1 white and a chipped topaz. I was on ACT II Normal on my barb that is Plvl78, 234% MF.

    Hm, then they have changed it. Either that or MP has an effect.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on magic find without being 60
    Quote from usmarine6132

    So I've been leveling a witch doctor on mp7. I have 30% magic find at level 48 not counting what I get from monster power. Is it just me or does it seem that magic find doesn't scale properly unless you have 5 stacks of neph valor?

    MF works the same. The issue is that the item slots that are going into play are different.

    For elites:

    Item slot 1 2 3 4 5 (NV)
    Major item quality at 0 MF Magic White White Magic Rare
    Major item quality at high MF Rare Magic Magic Rare Rare

    Drop chance for
    Difficulty = Inferno 100% 100% 50% 100% Requires 5xNV
    Difficulty = Sub-inferno 100% 100% 50% 0% Requires 5xNV

    Put another way: When you play on inferno, MF will seem to have the biggest impact on item slot 1 and 4 (that drop all the time) if you farm rare items. If you leave the NV drop out of the discussion this corresponds to roughly 60% of items dropped from elites (since slot 3 has 50% drop chance).
    When playing on lower difficulty MF will seem to have the biggest impact on item slot 1 alone if you farm rare items (or focus on rare items). This corresponds to roughly 40% of all items dropped from elites. This might be the reason why MF appear to be worse: If you just judge it on the appearance of rare items it naturally seem like there is an improper scaling.

    Hope this helped.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on magic find without being 60
    Quote from Andead

    They drop exactly the same number of items but because of the low MF and the lack of NV stacks you usually end up with 2 white and 1 blue item.

    I am actually still under the impression that (for elite packs) gear slot 4 is only added in inferno difficulty. I haven't played much lately, but elites usually drop 2-3 items sub-inferno difficulty, even when you are level 60. Entering inferno this changes to 3-4 items. Of course, if you should gain 5xNV, an extra item will drop in addition to these.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Monster Power and loot quality
    Quote from NeutroNova

    MF also controls the quality of the stats rolled.

    /thread

    Incorrect. MF has nothing to do with the quality of the stats rolled. Monster level has.
    Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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    posted a message on Diablo 3 Secret Pony Level MP10 too Easy?
    Abusing Fluttershy ..... !









    Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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    posted a message on Didnt like WW what are other good builds for bad gear?
    Quote from CyberianK

    I agree with Kanhe. I think it is bad advice to suggest WW build for normal ppl after the recent nerf.
    Reason is you need really expensive gear to make WW work better than other specs.

    I'd say it also depends on the playstyle. As much as these other builds works great for some it is never the case than anyone will adapt to the playstyle that some builds require. Luckily - for barbs - there are tons of builds at this moment that are viable and some requires a minimum amount of gear compared to getting WW barbs up and running efficiently.

    On the other half - if you take it slow and buy gear over time it can actually become quite easy to gear a WW barb. I managed to get 3 IK pieces (helm, boots, belt), a ~1.1 k dps MH and a decent OH both with CD and LS, a decent set of gloves (max crit and high CD with vit, str and AR), rings with crit etc. for less than 20 mil gold. Took me like 1.5 weeks of 5-10 mins AH searching every day, but in the long run I got myself a barb that can do MP4-5 with a bit of patience and I can roughly nail 45 mil XP/hr by doing act 3 MP1 runs. You really don't need to spend 100 mil+ (or probably 300 mil+) to get a decent WW barb.
    Posted in: Barbarian: Bastion's Keep
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    posted a message on world record azmodan mp10 - 46,5 sec
    As much as I'd like to congratulate you on the "world record" (which some might be putting value into - I really don't care about that stuff) I have to also tell you that I was utterly annoyed by you slaughtering chips (or w/e it is) for almost half of the video.
    Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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    posted a message on Hellfire ring wtf?o.O
    guess you got "lucky" and hit

    + MIN dmg
    + MAX dmf
    + damage range (e.g. +6-8 damage)

    on the same item. Then it will show up like + (damage range minimum + (MIN dmg affix)) - (damage range maximum + (MAX dmg affix)). Put short, the +32-92 damage is 3 item affixes in 1.
    The last is a socket, obviously.

    My guess at least
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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    posted a message on Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight
    Quote from CamogaFly

    Just wanted to give my thanks as I was doing some data gathering on the AH and this helped.

    Not sure if anyone pointed out this on 54 pages but;
    update on the max MF

    - Amulet 45
    - Ring 30 (Nagelring)
    - Quiver / Orb / Mojo 20
    and you may add Weapon 45 (Sun Keeper)

    This is relevant to section 2,7

    I updated section 2.7 with new numbers. I used to have weapons on the list too, but I decided to leave it for armor only for the time being and see if blizzard ends up completely removing the affix from items.
    Thanks for the input.
    Posted in: Theorycrafting and Analysis
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