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    posted a message on The Probability of Finding a Zod Rune
    Quote from Lt. Venom

    I think you can wait another 60 days.

    Other than that, nice work. Professor should give you credit for doing that.

    Thank you! You're right! I think it will be awesome to start fresh at the release. Another 59 days, then Diablo will get his/her face smashed!
    Posted in: Diablo II
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    posted a message on The Probability of Finding a Zod Rune
    I just started a course in mathematical statistics. I found an interesting formula that computes the probability of something happening, given the chance of it happening and the number of times the chance occurs.

    P(find) = 1-(1-P(drop))^(n)
    where
    P(find) = the probability of finding a Zod
    P(drop) = the probability of a Zod drop
    n = drops


    The drop rates of the DiabloWiki.com - Runes (Diablo II) Runes (Diablo II) can be found in our wiki and it gave me the drop rate of a Zod rune being 0.00003% chance.

    Wich gives:
    P(drop) = 0.00003/100
    n = 10^8 (100 million)




    To be 99.999% sure you get a Zod rune you have to get 38 376 412 drops!

    But what if you take crafting into account? I wrote this MATLAB file to make an experiment. It's not 100% valid as the random number generator (RNG) in MATLAB isn't a true RNG. It's based on an algorithm and is supposed to give you the same result if you restart the program and do another run. I may have to do another version of this experiment if I find a better way to compute it. (=Have gone to more than 2 lectures in mathematical statistics).

    I inserted DiabloWiki.com - Runes (Diablo II) Runes (Diablo II) stats and DiabloWiki.com - Horadric Cube Recipes (Diablo II) Horadric Cube Recipes (Diablo II) into my MATLAB code:

    %Baal runs to find or craft a Zod rune

    El = 50.0570/100;
    Eld = 35.7067/100;
    Tir = 25.2019/100;
    Nef = 17.3264/100;
    Eth = 18.1371/100;
    Ith = 12.3528/100;
    Tal = 15.2770/100;
    Ral = 10.3674/100;
    Ort = 10.8664/100;
    Thul = 7.3346/100;
    Amn = 6.7373/100;
    Sol = 4.5255/100;
    Shael = 3.5940/100;
    Dol = 2.4055/100;
    Hel = 1.8576/100;
    Io = 1.2409/100;
    Lum = 0.9323/100;
    Ko = 0.6222/100;
    Fal = 0.4701/100;
    Lem = 0.3136/100;
    Pul = 0.2361/100;
    Um = 0.1574/100;
    Mal = 0.1352/100;
    Ist = 0.0901/100;
    Gul = 0.0011/100;
    Vex = 0.0008/100;
    Ohm = 0.0011/100;
    Lo = 0.0004/100;
    Sur = 0.0004/100;
    Ber = 0.0002/100;
    Jah = 0.0002/100;
    Cham = 0.0001/100;
    Zod = 0.00003/100;

    nEl = 0;
    nEld = 0;
    nTir = 0;
    nNef = 0;
    nEth = 0;
    nIth = 0;
    nTal = 0;
    nRal = 0;
    nOrt = 0;
    nThul = 0;
    nAmn = 0;
    nSol = 0;
    nShael = 0;
    nDol = 0;
    nHel = 0;
    nIo = 0;
    nLum = 0;
    nKo = 0;
    nFal = 0;
    nLem = 0;
    nPul = 0;
    nUm = 0;
    nMal = 0;
    nIst = 0;
    nGul = 0;
    nVex = 0;
    nOhm = 0;
    nLo = 0;
    nSur = 0;
    nBer = 0;
    nJah = 0;
    nCham = 0;
    nZod = 0;

    %Gems
    chipped_topaz = 0;
    chipped_amethyst = 0;
    chipped_sapphire = 0;
    chipped_ruby = 0;
    chipped_emerald = 0;
    chipped_diamond = 0;
    flawed_topaz = 0;
    flawed_amethyst = 0;
    flawed_sapphire = 0;
    flawed_ruby = 0;
    flawed_emerald = 0;
    flawed_diamond = 0;
    topaz = 0;
    amethyst = 0;
    sapphire = 0;
    ruby = 0;
    emerald = 0;
    diamond = 0;
    flawless_topaz = 0;
    flawless_amethyst = 0;
    flawless_sapphire = 0;
    flawless_ruby = 0;
    flawless_emerald = 0;

    baal_runs=0;

    while(nZod == 0)

    %El rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nEl = nEl + 1;
    end
    if(nEl >= 3)
    nEld = nEld + 1;
    nEl = nEl - 3;
    end

    %Eld rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nEld = nEld + 1;
    end
    if(nEld >= 3)
    nTir = nTir + 1;
    nEld = nEld - 3;
    end

    %Tir rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nTir = nTir + 1;
    end
    if(nTir >= 3)
    nNef = nNef + 1;
    nTir = nTir - 3;
    end

    %Nef rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nNef = nNef + 1;
    end
    if(nNef >= 3)
    nEth = nEth + 1;
    nNef = nNef - 3;
    end

    %Eth rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nEth = nEth + 1;
    end
    if(nEth >= 3)
    nIth = nIth + 1;
    nEth = nEth - 3;
    end

    %Ith rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nIth = nIth + 1;
    end
    if(nIth >= 3)
    nTal = nTal + 1;
    nIth = nIth - 3;
    end

    %Tal rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nTal = nTal + 1;
    end
    if(nTal >= 3)
    nRal = nRal + 1;
    nTal = nTal - 3;
    end

    %Ral rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nRal = nRal + 1;
    end
    if(nRal >= 3)
    nOrt = nOrt + 1;
    nRal = nRal - 3;
    end

    %Ort rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nOrt = nOrt + 1;
    end
    if(nOrt >= 3)
    nThul = nThul + 1;
    nOrt = nOrt - 3;
    end

    %Thul rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nThul = nThul + 1;
    end
    if(nThul >= 3)
    nAmn = nAmn + 1;
    nThul = nThul - 3;
    chipped_topaz = chipped_topaz + 1;
    end

    %Amn rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nAmn = nAmn + 1;
    end
    if(nAmn >= 3)
    nSol = nSol + 1;
    nAmn = nAmn - 3;
    chipped_amethyst = chipped_amethyst + 1;
    end

    %Sol rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nSol = nSol + 1;
    end
    if(nSol >= 3)
    nShael = nShael + 1;
    nSol = nSol - 3;
    chipped_sapphire = chipped_sapphire +1;
    end

    %Shael rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nShael = nShael + 1;
    end
    if(nShael >= 3)
    nDol = nDol + 1;
    nShael = nShael - 3;
    chipped_ruby = chipped_ruby +1;
    end

    %Dol rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nDol = nDol + 1;
    end
    if(nDol >= 3)
    nHel = nHel + 1;
    nDol = nDol - 3;
    chipped_emerald = chipped_emerald +1;
    end

    %Hel rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nHel = nHel + 1;
    end
    if(nHel >= 3)
    nIo = nIo + 1;
    nHel = nHel - 3;
    chipped_diamond = chipped_diamond +1;
    end

    %Io rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nIo = nIo + 1;
    end
    if(nIo >= 3)
    nLum = nLum + 1;
    nIo = nIo - 3;
    flawed_topaz = flawed_topaz +1;
    end

    %Lum rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nLum = nLum + 1;
    end
    if(nLum >= 3)
    nKo = nKo + 1;
    nLum = nLum - 3;
    flawed_amethyst = flawed_amethyst +1;
    end

    %Ko rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nKo = nKo + 1;
    end
    if(nKo >= 3)
    nFal = nFal + 1;
    nKo = nKo - 3;
    flawed_sapphire = flawed_sapphire +1;
    end

    %Fal rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nFal = nFal + 1;
    end
    if(nFal >= 3)
    nLem = nLem + 1;
    nFal = nFal - 3;
    flawed_ruby = flawed_ruby +1;
    end

    %Lem rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nLem = nLem + 1;
    end
    if(nLem >= 3)
    nPul = nPul + 1;
    nLem = nLem - 3;
    flawed_emerald = flawed_emerald +1;
    end

    %Pul rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nPul = nPul + 1;
    end
    if(nPul >= 2)
    nUm = nUm + 1;
    nPul = nPul - 2;
    flawed_diamond = flawed_diamond +1;
    end

    %Um rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nUm = nUm + 1;
    end
    if(nUm >= 2)
    nMal = nMal + 1;
    nUm = nUm - 2;
    topaz = topaz +1;
    end

    %Mal rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nMal = nMal + 1;
    end
    if(nMal >= 2)
    nIst = nIst + 1;
    nMal = nMal - 2;
    amethyst = amethyst +1;
    end

    %Ist rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nIst = nIst + 1;
    end
    if(nMal >= 2)
    nGul = nGul + 1;
    nIst = nIst - 2;
    sapphire = sapphire +1;
    end

    %Gul rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nGul = nGul + 1;
    end
    if(nGul >= 2)
    nVex = nVex + 1;
    nGul = nGul - 2;
    ruby = ruby +1;
    end

    %Vex rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nVex = nVex + 1;
    end
    if(nVex >= 2)
    nOhm = nOhm + 1;
    nVex = nVex - 2;
    emerald = emerald +1;
    end

    %Ohm rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nOhm = nOhm + 1;
    end
    if(nOhm >= 2)
    nLo = nLo + 1;
    nOhm = nOhm - 2;
    diamond = diamond +1;
    end

    %Lo rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nLo = nLo + 1;
    end
    if(nLo >= 2)
    nSur = nSur + 1;
    nLo = nLo - 2;
    flawless_topaz = flawless_topaz +1;
    end

    %Sur rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nSur = nSur + 1;
    end
    if(nSur >= 2)
    nBer = nBer + 1;
    nSur = nSur - 2;
    flawless_amethyst = flawless_amethyst +1;
    end

    %Ber rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nBer = nBer + 1;
    end
    if(nBer >= 2)
    nJah = nJah + 1;
    nBer = nBer - 2;
    flawless_sapphire = flawless_sapphire +1;
    end

    %Jah rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nJah = nJah + 1;
    end
    if(nJah >= 2)
    nCham = nCham + 1;
    nJah = nJah - 2;
    flawless_ruby = flawless_ruby +1;
    end

    %Cham rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nCham = nCham + 1;
    end
    if(nCham >= 2)
    nZod = nZod + 1;
    nCham = nCham - 2;
    flawless_emerald = flawless_emerald +1;
    end

    %Zod rune
    if(rand(1) <=>
    nZod = nZod + 1;
    end

    baal_runs = baal_runs + 1;
    end

    The results from first run:
    You only have to do 509 329 Baal runs!
    You also need:

    22 104 Chipped Topaz
    18 741 Chipped Amethyst
    13 876 Chipped Sapphire
    10 698 Chipped Ruby
    7 610 Chipped Emerald
    5 700 Chipped Diamond
    4 017 Flawed Topaz
    2 914 Flawed Amethyst
    2 019 Flawed Sapphire
    1 488 Flawed Ruby
    1 027 Flawed Emerald
    1 094 Flawed Diamond
    941 Topaz
    825 Amethyst
    0 Sapphire
    2 Ruby
    1 Emerald
    3 Diamond
    2 Flawless Topaz
    1 Flawless Amethyst
    1 Flawless Sapphire
    2 Flawless Ruby
    1 Flawless Emerald

    For a proper result one should do a bunch of runs and do statistics of them to get a usefull result. But it takes a while for the computer to do one run, so not this time. :)

    If you like my crazy calculations, please give me a comment and if you have a spare beta key... I wouldn't mind it.

    Have a nice day!
    Posted in: Diablo II
  • 0

    posted a message on Diablo III Launching May 15 – Digital Pre-Sales NOW OPEN
    Where is the big countdown clock on the front page?
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Diablo III Launching May 15 – Digital Pre-Sales NOW OPEN
    Jaay! Been wating for this since 2008! Can't believe we finaly got a date (Me and D3^^)!
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Runed Grenades, SK Rating, Class Balance, Level Expansion, Followers, Blue Posts
    I just wonder about these videos. They are nice but runes isn't in beta, right? And you can't spawn enemies with an hotkey either? Are they made by Dokaroth?
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Is It Soon Soon™?
    Back in the good old days when D3 was announced I was hoping for a Q3-4 2010 release. Hahaha! :xD:

    And the game is still in development... got to be a good game!
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Is It Soon Soon™?
    Well done Don_guillotine! As always I enjoy reading your article: very well written, impartial arguments and cold logics.

    Yet I personaly don't believe in a january release, delaying a game (thats been under developments for... I don't know but many years) for just 1 month does not make sense. +Blizzard employes working 24/7 during Christmas? At least 2 more months of development time will give us D3 in late February - mid or late March.

    Either way. One day soon™ we will all know who was right :)
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on To Pillar or Not to Pillar
    Wonder what it will look like with runes?
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Diablo 3 Beta Key Sweepstakes
    The Diablo 3 Facebook page has 1 202 295 likes (it only had 1 200 061 ~30 min ago), that's 2000 likes in 30 min!

    2000 beta keys / 1 202 295 likes = 0.166% chance to win. I do hate to know my maths!

    During the time this post was written, the FB page got another 200... 270... 365 likes!
    Posted in: Diablo III General Discussion
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    posted a message on Beta Key Contest #2
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Beta Key Contest #2
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Diablo 3 Has Officially Been Pushed Back
    This is good for my studies! If Diablo 3 was released just before my christmas exams, my studies would be completely screwed up. Think positive!
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on Closed Beta Begins
    Beta is Live! Hell yea!
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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    posted a message on DiabloFans Tools: Diablo 3
    EDIT: OK, Barb skills all fixed! Refresh if it's still showing the Wizard skills.

    Are you sure this was a mistake Sixen? We all know how much you prefer the Wizard before the Barb. :xD:
    Posted in: News & Announcements
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