I can tell you that by now, I must have crafted at least 75 of these +2 enhancement bracers, and never come up with just 1 enhancement. It leads me to believe that the enhances are static.
Also, for those interested in my findings, you can view them here:
Very good work! I understand everything except the "L/Gl", what exactly is that? It also seems that the 2 random mods can't be just any 2, for example you haven't rolled any with more than one different + attrib on them (except +vit, which isn't random). So it would seem that it's not possible to get both +Str and +Dex.
In D2 many rare items could be completely kick-ass without each mod being the max possible. For example a dual leech ring was still very good, even if it was "only" 5% LL and 5% ML. Same will probably go for crafting in D3, as long as you roll the specific mods it will still be very powerful.
L/Gl = + Life per Globe.
You are absolutely right, during my crafting experiments I never have managed to hit a combination of two of the three class dependent attributes (Dex, Int, Str). That could also account for those being tied into ONE enhancement for later item level slots. For example, my quiver:
...well it looks like the image i'm trying to upload needs to be cleared by an admin first. The stats are like this though:
I was wondering if crafting always gives a fixed number of random properties or if it gives at most a certain number of them, and if the second holds, what the chance is to get 2 properties instead of just 1.
This is because DiabloNut uses the wording "+2 Max Random Magic Properties", while the wording on the official site is "+2 Random Properties".
I can tell you that by now, I must have crafted at least 75 of these +2 enhancement bracers, and never come up with just 1 enhancement. It leads me to believe that the enhances are static.
Also, for those interested in my findings, you can view them here:
After some time spent tonight crafting some of the Journeyman Bindings, I have a new perspective on what it's looking like. I made 50 of them, taking notes on each one. These are the enhancements I found:
Then going through each of the 62 enhancements listed on diablonut, I found that the following are listed as available for Bracers, but I did not find a single one out of 50:
So, 17 listed that I didn't find, 12 found that are also listed. 29 possible enhancements for bracers in total if diablonut is correct.
At 29 possible enhancements, two random per attempt, 50 attempts, it seems ludicrous that I wouldn't have hit one of the 17 solely on chance. This leads me to believe that they must be item level restricted and the journeyman's simply aren't high enough.
Now, back to our original question. What's the percentage chance of hitting some maximum stats? Something else I came to realize was that, especially at this low level, but questionably even higher up, a stat like armor isn't really necessary to max out. Even at low levels 10 armor does not even raise damage reduction by a single %. Negating this, and focusing on the stats of the item, I've found the following for the Journeyman Bindings:
Going for Dex + MF:
2 chances of hitting the two stats I want, 6 possible vitality, 17 Dex, and 10 MF
So, in order to get Max Dex and Max MF on these specific bracers, it's approximately one out of 400,000 crafts.
Now add Max of a damage stat with the MF, not just Dex:
1 / 138040.
Master Equation for finding % Chance of X number of perfect stats:
X = Total number of Random Stats
X / ( (Any total # of fixed stat options) * (Total enhancements available for item * correct enhancements variance) * ( Total enhancement available for item - 1 * correct enhancements variance).
I checked the AH to see if any of these perfect Stat / MF combo's were listed and there were none.
This is all assuming it's the same chance for a 1 dexterity to spawn as a let's say 5 dex (hypothetical max).
It could be an equal % chance, such as a 20% chance to reach that max 5 dex. BUT for all we know you have a 90% chance to spawn 1-3 dex, and then an 8% chance for a 4, and a 2% for a 5. (unless Blizzard has stated otherwise, than my apologize)
Just my 2 cents
Assumptions are CERTAINLY being made. I think the assumption is logical however. It doesn't seem logical for them to make it any harder to hit that max stat then to hit the lowest stat. As we're starting to see, the amount of combinations alone already make finding the perfect stat fairly rare.
I've noticed that diablonut does in fact house what I assume are correct levels of affixes, and which item slot those affixes can be placed on. The question after that becomes which item levels correspond to which levels of accessible affixes. It doesn't make sense to craft a level 60 piece of armor and have it hit, say, +1 armor. There is going to be a low and a high level of affix(again, logical assumption), and those affixes themselves have a low and a high.
I'm going to put the assumptions to practice tonight. I've saved up some crafting mats over the last two days and plan on creating as many of those example bracers as I can in an attempt to find exactly what level affixes can be attached to them. That should help me get the stats on a percentage fairly easy. Doing an AH search is another great idea for checking this. Just viewing which are for sale and with what stats.
This discussion is still ultimately pointless, as the math (right or wrong) is only applicable if you can say with 100% surety that this will be the pool of mods, and the only pool of mods, available at release. Which you can't.
The plausibility of this mod pool being much larger is very high, which immediately invalidates any theorycrafting calculations that are done here.
I understand where you're coming from, it does seem pretty much pointless to get down to specifics. Any specifics I have used prior to this post have been in an attempt to better explain via example. As for the POINT of the thread though, it is to eventually model (based on examples) an equation with variables (variables that will almost certainly change come the full release) to calculate the odds. Whether or not more affixes are added or not, is irrelevant, as long as we are capable of finding the values of the variables an equation can still be theorycrafted to give information for the actual release, as well as the beta.
This may come dangerously close to falling into a new topic, one based around arguing the merits of each affix, but I think it's safe to say that there will be 'winner' stats and 'loser' stats. Some stats that you see on an item and mentally take note of the wasted enchantment. Just off the top of my head these would include:
'Losers':
-Health Regen.
-Pickup gold/health globe range.
-Thorns abilities (I argue this because i plan on playing a class that revolves around avoiding getting hit and staying at ranged)
-Health globe bonus to health.
-Maybe %block and armor...
'Winners':
-Anything that boosts damage, whether it be 'of wounding' with straight damage additions (+2-3), 'of the snake' with added poison damage (+3-6 poison), or a class specific stat, like Dex for DH's, increased attack speed...
-Vitality, more health is always good.
-Magic Find for the ability to find better gear, or for more magical items to salvage to make better gear...
-Gold Find for repair costs, stash size increases, crafting, buying cheap blue gear to salvage to craft...
-Resists
Obviously you will have to balance out your characters stats to maximize survivability, damage done, and MF/GF. As difficulty increases so will your need to boost the first two, rather than the former. The question still remains: "What is the chance of crafting that specific best item that i need?"
I think in order to further answer that question we have to identify which affixes can be placed on which item slots. I've spent some time googling and came up short, so I'll attempt my own tests tonight in the beta and post my results.
Very good point about double the chance, and also for fixing the armor/vitality stats.
I think there's a slight miscalculation here:
1/8 * 1/6 * 2/153760 = 2/3690240 = 1/1845120
I think you'll find that 1/8 * 1/6 * 2/153760 = 2/7380480 = 1/3690240
Correct me if i'm missing something though.
I also realized that, as far as I know, the game will not allow you to 'double dip'. So therefore if you have 62 different affixes on the first enchant, you'll only have 61 on the second. With double the chance, the fixed armor/vitality values, and the double dipping, i'm looking at this number now:
2 chances out of / (8 armor variance) * (6 vitality variance) * ((62 affixes) * (8 variance in Dex)) * ((61 remaining affixes) * (5 variance for MF))
So 1 out of a little over 3.5 million crafts will be 100% perfect with two fixed stats (Armor and Vitality) and two randoms, that you need specifically maxed.
Now if we replace the Dex with any of the three stats that add damage (Dex, Int, Strength) we're looking at 4/7261440 = 1/1815360.
These numbers are still pretty outrageous, and I believe the flaw lies in the number of possible affixes. There are 62 on diablonut, but i'm almost positive at this point that those affixes are assigned specific item slots.
Just to prove my point, if you were looking for a perfect in the above stats for any of the three (Dex, Int, or Strength) and decided to craft all 1.8 million, and crafting 1 took approximately 2 seconds (factoring in the time it takes to salvage the failed attempts this may be very optimistic).
It'd take you 42 days. Just to craft them. Not even blizzard is this mean. :-) Now we just need to find the affixes specific to each item slot and take it from there....
Looking at just 1 stat, and assuming things are weighted equally.
25-32 armor
12-17 vitality
+1 Random Magic Property.
Assuming each magic property is weighted the same, regardless of the variance
within said property, then the multiplier here is just the total # of affixes
in the beta. My count from Diablonut is 62. Are certain affixes specific to
certail item slots? Well if it isn't, and any affix can be present on any slot,
then we'd multiply the variance of armor, variance of vitality, the chance of
hitting the random we want(62), and the variance of that affix.
Rank 1 of dexterity on diablonut is +1-8.
1/(7*5*62*8) = 1/17360.
Now adding a second random property:
Rank 1 of Magic find on diablonut is +5-9% Better Chance
1/(7*5*(62*8)*(62*5) = 1/(35*496*310) = 1/5381600
Could this math possible be correct?
I also read in an Affix thread that the full game might have as many as 300 affixes,
this would make the odds even more insane.
I'm guessing affixes must be specific to item slot, which would cut down the largest
multiplier.
I was hoping to start an in-depth investigation into the chance of crafting 'perfect' pieces of gear. I've browsed all of the theorycrafting forum and significant amounts of general discussion and haven't found one that reveals enough for my tastes. Googling had similar results.
So, what exactly am I talking about? I plan on playing a DH come release (this is largely irrelevant, just using it for an example), and I will be looking into maxing my damage while letting Magic Find and Gold Find take the secondary and tertiary respectively.
Ideally, the 'perfect' bracers for my class for this item is the following:
32 Armor
17 Vitality
+ Max Dexterity
+ Max Magic Find
Now i'm interested in the math for the odds of crafting this perfect item for one specific class, a perfect item for any of the classes (replace Max Dexterity with whatever Max stat), and then using that to generalize percentage chance of creation with any variable on gear.
Anyone up for taking a swing at the math?
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L/Gl = + Life per Globe.
You are absolutely right, during my crafting experiments I never have managed to hit a combination of two of the three class dependent attributes (Dex, Int, Str). That could also account for those being tied into ONE enhancement for later item level slots. For example, my quiver:
...well it looks like the image i'm trying to upload needs to be cleared by an admin first. The stats are like this though:
+17 Str
+17 Dex
+11 MF
I can tell you that by now, I must have crafted at least 75 of these +2 enhancement bracers, and never come up with just 1 enhancement. It leads me to believe that the enhances are static.
Also, for those interested in my findings, you can view them here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AiYl6WYrrUPodEdKTEF4VzU5XzItZW5yb0k4YS1EeVE&output=html
After some time spent tonight crafting some of the Journeyman Bindings, I have a new perspective on what it's looking like. I made 50 of them, taking notes on each one. These are the enhancements I found:
Dexterity, Str, Int, Vit, MF, Crit, PickUp, Exp, Thorns, Regen, L/Gl, and GF.
Then going through each of the 62 enhancements listed on diablonut, I found that the following are listed as available for Bracers, but I did not find a single one out of 50:
Armor, Damage Reduction [Elemental], Damage to Health, Dexterity + Intelligence, Dexterity + Vitality,
Intelligence + Vitality, Item Value, Maximum Life, Resist All, Resist Arcane, Resist Cold, Resist Fire,
Resist Lightning, Resist Poison, Strength + Dexterity, Strength + Intelligence, Strength + Vitality.
So, 17 listed that I didn't find, 12 found that are also listed. 29 possible enhancements for bracers in total if diablonut is correct.
At 29 possible enhancements, two random per attempt, 50 attempts, it seems ludicrous that I wouldn't have hit one of the 17 solely on chance. This leads me to believe that they must be item level restricted and the journeyman's simply aren't high enough.
Now, back to our original question. What's the percentage chance of hitting some maximum stats? Something else I came to realize was that, especially at this low level, but questionably even higher up, a stat like armor isn't really necessary to max out. Even at low levels 10 armor does not even raise damage reduction by a single %. Negating this, and focusing on the stats of the item, I've found the following for the Journeyman Bindings:
Going for Dex + MF:
2 chances of hitting the two stats I want, 6 possible vitality, 17 Dex, and 10 MF
2/ (6 * (29 * 17) * (28 * 10)) = 2 / ( 6 * 493 * 280) = 2 / 828240 = 1 / 414120.
So, in order to get Max Dex and Max MF on these specific bracers, it's approximately one out of 400,000 crafts.
Now add Max of a damage stat with the MF, not just Dex:
1 / 138040.
Master Equation for finding % Chance of X number of perfect stats:
X = Total number of Random Stats
X / ( (Any total # of fixed stat options) * (Total enhancements available for item * correct enhancements variance) * ( Total enhancement available for item - 1 * correct enhancements variance).
I checked the AH to see if any of these perfect Stat / MF combo's were listed and there were none.
Assumptions are CERTAINLY being made. I think the assumption is logical however. It doesn't seem logical for them to make it any harder to hit that max stat then to hit the lowest stat. As we're starting to see, the amount of combinations alone already make finding the perfect stat fairly rare.
I've noticed that diablonut does in fact house what I assume are correct levels of affixes, and which item slot those affixes can be placed on. The question after that becomes which item levels correspond to which levels of accessible affixes. It doesn't make sense to craft a level 60 piece of armor and have it hit, say, +1 armor. There is going to be a low and a high level of affix(again, logical assumption), and those affixes themselves have a low and a high.
I'm going to put the assumptions to practice tonight. I've saved up some crafting mats over the last two days and plan on creating as many of those example bracers as I can in an attempt to find exactly what level affixes can be attached to them. That should help me get the stats on a percentage fairly easy. Doing an AH search is another great idea for checking this. Just viewing which are for sale and with what stats.
Excited to get home and do more research. :-)
I understand where you're coming from, it does seem pretty much pointless to get down to specifics. Any specifics I have used prior to this post have been in an attempt to better explain via example. As for the POINT of the thread though, it is to eventually model (based on examples) an equation with variables (variables that will almost certainly change come the full release) to calculate the odds. Whether or not more affixes are added or not, is irrelevant, as long as we are capable of finding the values of the variables an equation can still be theorycrafted to give information for the actual release, as well as the beta.
'Losers':
-Health Regen.
-Pickup gold/health globe range.
-Thorns abilities (I argue this because i plan on playing a class that revolves around avoiding getting hit and staying at ranged)
-Health globe bonus to health.
-Maybe %block and armor...
'Winners':
-Anything that boosts damage, whether it be 'of wounding' with straight damage additions (+2-3), 'of the snake' with added poison damage (+3-6 poison), or a class specific stat, like Dex for DH's, increased attack speed...
-Vitality, more health is always good.
-Magic Find for the ability to find better gear, or for more magical items to salvage to make better gear...
-Gold Find for repair costs, stash size increases, crafting, buying cheap blue gear to salvage to craft...
-Resists
Obviously you will have to balance out your characters stats to maximize survivability, damage done, and MF/GF. As difficulty increases so will your need to boost the first two, rather than the former. The question still remains: "What is the chance of crafting that specific best item that i need?"
I think in order to further answer that question we have to identify which affixes can be placed on which item slots. I've spent some time googling and came up short, so I'll attempt my own tests tonight in the beta and post my results.
Very good point about double the chance, and also for fixing the armor/vitality stats.
I think there's a slight miscalculation here:
1/8 * 1/6 * 2/153760 = 2/3690240 = 1/1845120
I think you'll find that 1/8 * 1/6 * 2/153760 = 2/7380480 = 1/3690240
Correct me if i'm missing something though.
I also realized that, as far as I know, the game will not allow you to 'double dip'. So therefore if you have 62 different affixes on the first enchant, you'll only have 61 on the second. With double the chance, the fixed armor/vitality values, and the double dipping, i'm looking at this number now:
2 chances out of / (8 armor variance) * (6 vitality variance) * ((62 affixes) * (8 variance in Dex)) * ((61 remaining affixes) * (5 variance for MF))
2/(8*6*(62*8)*(61*5)) = 2/(8*6*496*305) = 2/7261440 = 1/3630720
So 1 out of a little over 3.5 million crafts will be 100% perfect with two fixed stats (Armor and Vitality) and two randoms, that you need specifically maxed.
Now if we replace the Dex with any of the three stats that add damage (Dex, Int, Strength) we're looking at 4/7261440 = 1/1815360.
These numbers are still pretty outrageous, and I believe the flaw lies in the number of possible affixes. There are 62 on diablonut, but i'm almost positive at this point that those affixes are assigned specific item slots.
Just to prove my point, if you were looking for a perfect in the above stats for any of the three (Dex, Int, or Strength) and decided to craft all 1.8 million, and crafting 1 took approximately 2 seconds (factoring in the time it takes to salvage the failed attempts this may be very optimistic).
It'd take you 42 days. Just to craft them. Not even blizzard is this mean. :-) Now we just need to find the affixes specific to each item slot and take it from there....
25-32 armor
12-17 vitality
+1 Random Magic Property.
Assuming each magic property is weighted the same, regardless of the variance
within said property, then the multiplier here is just the total # of affixes
in the beta. My count from Diablonut is 62. Are certain affixes specific to
certail item slots? Well if it isn't, and any affix can be present on any slot,
then we'd multiply the variance of armor, variance of vitality, the chance of
hitting the random we want(62), and the variance of that affix.
Rank 1 of dexterity on diablonut is +1-8.
1/(7*5*62*8) = 1/17360.
Now adding a second random property:
Rank 1 of Magic find on diablonut is +5-9% Better Chance
1/(7*5*(62*8)*(62*5) = 1/(35*496*310) = 1/5381600
Could this math possible be correct?
I also read in an Affix thread that the full game might have as many as 300 affixes,
this would make the odds even more insane.
I'm guessing affixes must be specific to item slot, which would cut down the largest
multiplier.
So, what exactly am I talking about? I plan on playing a DH come release (this is largely irrelevant, just using it for an example), and I will be looking into maxing my damage while letting Magic Find and Gold Find take the secondary and tertiary respectively.
Let's look at an example from the Beta:
Journeyman Bindings (http://diablonut.incgamers.com/item/journeyman-bindings)
25-32 Armor
- +12-17 Vitality
- +2 Max Random Magic Properties
Required Level: 11Ideally, the 'perfect' bracers for my class for this item is the following:
32 Armor
17 Vitality
+ Max Dexterity
+ Max Magic Find
Now i'm interested in the math for the odds of crafting this perfect item for one specific class, a perfect item for any of the classes (replace Max Dexterity with whatever Max stat), and then using that to generalize percentage chance of creation with any variable on gear.
Anyone up for taking a swing at the math?