I love the chart showing various percentages and drop rates, but I found that I only really cared about T1 (for comparison sake or new characters), or T6+. As such, I've made the following abbreviated version...enjoy:
It's pure luck. My point is, the drop rate isn't the problem. Random is random.
I hate to pick on any specific post, but this quote in particular speaks to the gross misapplication/misunderstanding of probability that pops up.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
People who have gotten many set drops quickly are not evidence of drop rates being fine, but people who have not gotten any set drops after a long time playing might be evidence that drop rates are not fine.
It may seem as though it should be one way or the other...either they're both evidence of drop-rate-health or neither are, but there's one important distinction, which makes very long droughts more meaningful than very short windfalls: the size of the sample. Getting lucky in the short term is not completely meaningless, but it is not as meaningful as getting 'unlucky' (which might actually be luck-neutral since we don't know actual drop rates) in the long term.
Sure enough, there are the ranges -- for black damage (which it had rolled), it lists [981-1199] - [1175-1490], meaning I ended up with a top min value, and high max value. Good to know, and I'm not sure why I missed that previously.
I have another identical weapon without black dmg (lightning instead), but also with 9% increased dmg. I was able to subtract the bonus damage from each, and then take away the 9% from my second weapon and see, in a very real-to-me way, that the base damage was the same for both weapons. Takes just a little bit of time to work out the numbers, but comprehending how it all fits together is worth it. Thanks again!
It does help -- I'll take a look at the enchanting window to see the ranges for my weapon (and hypothetical), and report back to this thread with the results. Whatever they are, your explanation helps explain what I can expect and where to find it.
When I hold control over a weapon, I see the range for bonus damage. Let's use my current weapon as an example -- the possible range shown is "981-1490". I re-rolled this stat a couple times and ended up with the range "1199-1442", which boosted the dps by a good amount, which is great.
So here's my question: if I was to continue re-rolling, what is the theoretical range of ranges that I would see? Could it roll as low as "981-981" and as high as "1490-1490"? Or is there always some sort of gap in that range between min & max bonus? If there is always a gap, what is the range in the size of the gap?
Thanks!
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I love the chart showing various percentages and drop rates, but I found that I only really cared about T1 (for comparison sake or new characters), or T6+. As such, I've made the following abbreviated version...enjoy:
Giving an anecdote about getting very lucky in a short period of time does nothing to support or dismiss leveraging no-leg-drop streaks.
Edit: and it's not just you -- too many people talk about 'randomness' as if it's distinct from drop rates.
There are drop rates programmed into the game, and what those rates are does not depend on luck. What side of variance you fall on depends on luck, but the rate of drops is not random. The fact that you got tons of drops quickly does not demonstrate that drop rates are fine.
A huge hurdle that has to be part of the conversation, always, is that people don't just need a piece to drop, they need it to drop with playable rolls.
It may seem as though it should be one way or the other...either they're both evidence of drop-rate-health or neither are, but there's one important distinction, which makes very long droughts more meaningful than very short windfalls: the size of the sample. Getting lucky in the short term is not completely meaningless, but it is not as meaningful as getting 'unlucky' (which might actually be luck-neutral since we don't know actual drop rates) in the long term.
I have another identical weapon without black dmg (lightning instead), but also with 9% increased dmg. I was able to subtract the bonus damage from each, and then take away the 9% from my second weapon and see, in a very real-to-me way, that the base damage was the same for both weapons. Takes just a little bit of time to work out the numbers, but comprehending how it all fits together is worth it.
Thanks again!
When I hold control over a weapon, I see the range for bonus damage. Let's use my current weapon as an example -- the possible range shown is "981-1490". I re-rolled this stat a couple times and ended up with the range "1199-1442", which boosted the dps by a good amount, which is great.
So here's my question: if I was to continue re-rolling, what is the theoretical range of ranges that I would see? Could it roll as low as "981-981" and as high as "1490-1490"? Or is there always some sort of gap in that range between min & max bonus? If there is always a gap, what is the range in the size of the gap?
Thanks!