There was a 1/250 chance of getting no key drops like you did on your successive runs. In other words, if 250 people did what you did, one guy can be expected to get zero keys. That guy was you.
Your insistence that this is somehow impossible is especially puzzling, considering you seem to understand how a binomial distribution works.
I agree that your situation sucks, and it's a good argument for the implementation of a pseudo-RNG system that mitigates streaking. For example, some games feature mechanics that slowly scale your chances upwards until a success is rolled, at which point the probability resets.
Just remember that in the D3 system, for every drought, there is a flood.
And finally a rationale rebuke...
Yes, I realize that two successive strings of bad luck on a key run are unlikely yet possible. But what about a single person getting 3 set items of the class they are playing in a very short amount of time. What about identical items dropping in close proximity? Where there is smoke there is fire, the Bliz system certainly contains an element of randomness, but there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG.
Now this is where you lose a lot of the posters here, including myself.
Why can't a person get 3 set items in a short period of time? Is it impossible? Does the system "shut off" the possibility of getting legendaries? No, therefore you're wrong.
Identical items can drop in close proximity and it has been brought to blizzard's attention.
"there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG" - you do not know every player and can't speak for "too many oddities". This is a case of the loud minority speaking about weird things happening and making it seem like there might be a problem when there isn't. Not every player is getting odd drops (most aren't), and sometimes we do (i got 4 legendaries in one run a few weeks back before 1.05). You should look at that loot thread posted a month or two ago that follows inferno drops related to magic find, NV stacks, etc. That is a VERY THOROUGH thread and has THOUSANDS of data points to your miniscule number of experiences. It has real data with real information, not speculation like this
Silent mike (who probably left because no one would hear his side, i think sen5ei is actually you anyways), I will tell you a story.
I went to vegas over christmas with my family. Christmas is a good time to go because you are statistically more likely to win at games of chance (roulette, slots, etc), papers have been published on this phenomena, you would think this supports you but it doesnt. I played roulette on christmas day with $1000. I watched a few rounds and decided that betting red or black consistently would keep me at the table longer for drinks.
This is where the support for you goes significantly downhill. I began betting red and figured it would hit about 50% of the time (a little less due to green spaces). I kept doubling my bet from 5 to 10 to 20 and so on until red hit, red did not hit while I was betting and black was landed on 16 times in a row. If you calculate how many scenarios there could have been, there were 65536 scenarios (i am not accounting for green spaces) and the one that occurred seemed the most statistically unlikely, but it is just as likely as any other scenario (mixture of red and black).
I saw people around me winning and of course that was frustrating, but the fact of the matter was that even if the house odds were better (due to seasonal phenomena) they are still odds and those things can happen. The scenario is different every time. So even if there is some blizzard conspiracy that stacked the odds in our favor at the beginning of 1.05 (I doubt it), there are still scenarios that will happen where things may not drop in your favor.
This is a good example because it demonstrates that the odds can be tipped in your favor (like MP6 meaning 60% chance of a key, or blizz increasing the leg drop rate (which i still think is stupid and not real)) and you can still lose.
EDIT: When I say 65536 scenarios I mean 2^16 (2 colors and 16 different occasions), I know there are some fancy stats people that roam the forums so I wanted to clarify myself
hm.. guess i ll wait, unless i can get a steal price
what do u think of pickup raidus? is it as needed as 1.04? because in 1.04, it was under the assumption that elites die real fast and u can run with low loh because u get globes constantly, but it might not be the case in for instance, mp5
I really wouldn't wait, I would make your purchases ASAP before people realize it takes less work to get gold and its value depreciates (prices go up). My gold per hour has gone up from 300k to around 500k (running low MP as quickly as possible)
I plan on making my purchases (new 1h, my echoing fury with the fear affix has gotten far too annoying and I cant handle chasing mobs through AOE anymore) as soon as I get home today.
I thought the same thing you did that prices would inherently go down due to more drop rates, and better drops (all over il58 now). You would assume that a ton of better gear, people will undercut and prices will drop for good stuff.
However, I don't think this is going to happen. I actually think the opposite will occur (prices will go up):
1. Monster power giving gold find.
2. all drops are over il58 now so vendoring blues and yellows gives more gold than before
3. there may be a new plateau with rings and ammys with il63 stats, but that wouldn't drop il62 ones
Everyone will have more gold from normal play, so the market might stabilize at a higher baseline level than it already is. Prices will not go down because the amount of gold everyone is getting will increase. Something worth 5m gold before might be prices at 7-10 now just because you need more gold for it to reflect its "true value".
True value to me is how long it would take to obtain that much gold, it would take less work to get 5m gold now than it did in 1.04, now the same amount of time might yield 7-10m gold. It is like inflation, everyone is "printing" more gold, so prices have to go up to match the value of the items.
Not at all, they stated it clearly. MP2-3 is what 1.04 inferno was, so you can't expect anything above that to be easy. So if you're doing MP's above that and it seems difficult, it should feel that way and you aren't being lied to. The difficulty wasn't increased by blizzard, you are increasing the difficulty and doing it to yourself, so it really isn't their fault.
RA and survival is important at those higher MP levels, absolutely. I need warcry impunity still, especially for plague/molten dual AOE on the ground for my barb.
I am doing MP5-6 and loving the challenge, I can actually die and I need to be careful.
Are 5 stacks of NV necessary for organ pieces to drop? I know they are for keys. I did PTR and never got far enough along to make the machine (character copy issues limited me to mostly leveling except for one or two days with my current chars)
-Aren't they nerfing the base-line damage of monsters by 25%? (and in turn, reducing the damage reduction from abilities which you don't/can't yet even use?)
-They are buffing slow in inferno, as well as crowd control, as well as many crowd control abilities see: Thrill of the hunt, numbing traps(with use of sentry/grenades) while buffing other skills that have synergy with said skills...
-Making high level monsters spawn high level affixes (consistently) on items and
-Doubling the drop rate of legendaries and
-Increasing the effectiveness (works on resplendent chests) and ease of collection of the Nephalem Valor buff (from chests/major completed events)... put together mean that on a difficulty as low as monster player level 1 (I BELIEVE), you can roll high level items/affixes by clearing just about any part of inferno on any act...
This patch should be the best thing that ever happened to you, I would think.
Yes but read the blue post about 1.05 from yesterday, it details how damage scales with MP. The 25% damage nerf is quickly lost when you boost the MP as I have learned on the PTR. Damage scales quickly, MP 0 or MP1 feels like hell mode basically in how easy it is, walk in the park kind of stuff. Get into higher MP's and you are losing 70% of your life pool to white mobs in A4.
OP, if want to survive monster power, use a lower MP. All items that drop will be over ilevel58 (more gold when you vendor everything), more legendaries drop (again more gold if you sell them or get lucky enough to find an upgrade), buffs to CC, etc. A lot of these changes will help you gear up to survive higher MP levels. Or you can buy gold which is about 50 cents on US RMAH right now and gear up real quick.
Best of luck in 1.05 and happy hunting as you quest for rings!
Hey, I am sword and board and have significantly worse stats than yours (48k dps, 50k life, 800 resists, 25% block, almost 11k armor) and I found that doing MP5 for the keys worked well for me. I would get five stacks NV then go hunting for the warden, it took a little less than an hour per run. Elite packs usually took between 2-3 minutes to kill depending on affixes (bloated malachors with exta life being an outlier). I can survive MP10 but I see no point in doing so, it is SLOW. Its like using a toothpick to dig a whole through a mountain. With your stats, you should have no issues with MP6-8 as your regular farming.
All that being said, I highly recommend you try out the PTR for yourself and see how the decrease in defensive stats affects your build and playstyle and how that will ultimately affect your farming. I found that I didn't need ignore pain anymore and replaced it with battle rage since it lasts 120 seconds now. I still use warcry impunity because I am still in the mindset that I really need resists, but that might change as I get more used to the new patch. Also, if you want to level a new char, try it on MP10! I think thats how diablo 3 was meant to be played on normal mode anyways.
Hey all, I need to upgrade some pieces of my gear. I just finished A4, but it was not without some significant difficulties. A3 is generally fine with minimal deaths, but I would like to make my life a little easier going forward with farming and paragon leveling.
I prefer to be more defensive but I have switched to a high LOH 2H and would be open to dual wielding or sword and board. Keeping that in mind, any suggestions would be greatly appreciated! Its a lot easier to shop the AH with something in mind than blindly not know where my biggest upgrade might come from.
Yea I use ignore pain because A3 is still so new to me and I just like to have my "oh shit" button just in case.
I like that this build requires strength over crit so it iwill make my armor value go through the roof once I can gear for it.
I don't know how your survival stats will pan out, but then again I don't know what the "minimum's" are for this build, I am just kind of doing it and theorycrafting later.
Those 2h's are going to be brutal to get, 400 strength would be great for this, (maybe also some intel so the allres i lose from the shield is recouped a little bit)
Hey all. First time poster, but i thought I would share a RR (revenge rend) build I tried last night with the new patch that seemed to work REALLY well and doesn't require expensive crit gear, I just stack strength because rend doesnt crit anyways. Most of all, i think this is for the players like me who couldnt get over the hump with the crit required or LOH required for WW build (the budget barb!). It got me from beginning of act 3 through ghom (one shotted him) with one death (jailer, arcane, desecrate BS) and I killed every rare and champ pack with ease, never ran or kited. If you don't want to waste your time or money on expensive crit gear, this is for you!
Basically the play style is stand in the middle of tons of enemies and rend with blood lust rune (9% damage return), when it ticks at over 10k, you get at least 900 life back per tick and multiply that by how many enemies are around you (usually a lot in A3).
I use Revenge for even more life return and it hits a little harder. I don't think this is what is primarily keeping my life up, but I use it regardless because I am a more cautious player to begin with.
I havent had issues with fury generation since you only hit rend every 4 or 5 seconds (with frenzy, thats a hell of a long time and get lots of strikes in to build it back up.
Using WOTB is just a bonus and really makes the rend hit hard, and since rend it hitting hard, you're healing hard (i.e. you can stand in stacks of plague and molten without 1k allres or 50k life, i had 750 allres and 47k life).
Im using defensive runes because, again, I am more cautious because I haven't been through all of A3 yet, but I could've gotten by without one or two of them. If the beginning of A3 was any indication of how this build will work, the rest of the game is going to be a cake walk (some of it may be due to champ pack nerfed health, affix nerfs, etc, but I couldnt even kill a full pack of fallen peons before the patch so I made a huge jump in my progress)
I am going to try this build with a high damage 2h in the coming week or so once prices level a bit. I doubt the 2h will even need LOH with how much healing the build yields.
My stats: 47.5k life, 1663 strength, 13% crit , 700 LOH (i doubt more than this is necessary or if it is necessary at all, that is something I have to look into), 10k armor buffed with defensive runes, 750 all res minimum, damage 20.8 k dps
My stats are extremely attainable, most people reading this are probably way better in the stats category. But if you aren't i recommend giving it a shot. Happy hunting
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Now this is where you lose a lot of the posters here, including myself.
Why can't a person get 3 set items in a short period of time? Is it impossible? Does the system "shut off" the possibility of getting legendaries? No, therefore you're wrong.
Identical items can drop in close proximity and it has been brought to blizzard's attention.
"there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG" - you do not know every player and can't speak for "too many oddities". This is a case of the loud minority speaking about weird things happening and making it seem like there might be a problem when there isn't. Not every player is getting odd drops (most aren't), and sometimes we do (i got 4 legendaries in one run a few weeks back before 1.05). You should look at that loot thread posted a month or two ago that follows inferno drops related to magic find, NV stacks, etc. That is a VERY THOROUGH thread and has THOUSANDS of data points to your miniscule number of experiences. It has real data with real information, not speculation like this
I went to vegas over christmas with my family. Christmas is a good time to go because you are statistically more likely to win at games of chance (roulette, slots, etc), papers have been published on this phenomena, you would think this supports you but it doesnt. I played roulette on christmas day with $1000. I watched a few rounds and decided that betting red or black consistently would keep me at the table longer for drinks.
This is where the support for you goes significantly downhill. I began betting red and figured it would hit about 50% of the time (a little less due to green spaces). I kept doubling my bet from 5 to 10 to 20 and so on until red hit, red did not hit while I was betting and black was landed on 16 times in a row. If you calculate how many scenarios there could have been, there were 65536 scenarios (i am not accounting for green spaces) and the one that occurred seemed the most statistically unlikely, but it is just as likely as any other scenario (mixture of red and black).
I saw people around me winning and of course that was frustrating, but the fact of the matter was that even if the house odds were better (due to seasonal phenomena) they are still odds and those things can happen. The scenario is different every time. So even if there is some blizzard conspiracy that stacked the odds in our favor at the beginning of 1.05 (I doubt it), there are still scenarios that will happen where things may not drop in your favor.
This is a good example because it demonstrates that the odds can be tipped in your favor (like MP6 meaning 60% chance of a key, or blizz increasing the leg drop rate (which i still think is stupid and not real)) and you can still lose.
EDIT: When I say 65536 scenarios I mean 2^16 (2 colors and 16 different occasions), I know there are some fancy stats people that roam the forums so I wanted to clarify myself
I really wouldn't wait, I would make your purchases ASAP before people realize it takes less work to get gold and its value depreciates (prices go up). My gold per hour has gone up from 300k to around 500k (running low MP as quickly as possible)
I plan on making my purchases (new 1h, my echoing fury with the fear affix has gotten far too annoying and I cant handle chasing mobs through AOE anymore) as soon as I get home today.
However, I don't think this is going to happen. I actually think the opposite will occur (prices will go up):
1. Monster power giving gold find.
2. all drops are over il58 now so vendoring blues and yellows gives more gold than before
3. there may be a new plateau with rings and ammys with il63 stats, but that wouldn't drop il62 ones
Everyone will have more gold from normal play, so the market might stabilize at a higher baseline level than it already is. Prices will not go down because the amount of gold everyone is getting will increase. Something worth 5m gold before might be prices at 7-10 now just because you need more gold for it to reflect its "true value".
True value to me is how long it would take to obtain that much gold, it would take less work to get 5m gold now than it did in 1.04, now the same amount of time might yield 7-10m gold. It is like inflation, everyone is "printing" more gold, so prices have to go up to match the value of the items.
RA and survival is important at those higher MP levels, absolutely. I need warcry impunity still, especially for plague/molten dual AOE on the ground for my barb.
I am doing MP5-6 and loving the challenge, I can actually die and I need to be careful.
Yes but read the blue post about 1.05 from yesterday, it details how damage scales with MP. The 25% damage nerf is quickly lost when you boost the MP as I have learned on the PTR. Damage scales quickly, MP 0 or MP1 feels like hell mode basically in how easy it is, walk in the park kind of stuff. Get into higher MP's and you are losing 70% of your life pool to white mobs in A4.
OP, if want to survive monster power, use a lower MP. All items that drop will be over ilevel58 (more gold when you vendor everything), more legendaries drop (again more gold if you sell them or get lucky enough to find an upgrade), buffs to CC, etc. A lot of these changes will help you gear up to survive higher MP levels. Or you can buy gold which is about 50 cents on US RMAH right now and gear up real quick.
Best of luck in 1.05 and happy hunting as you quest for rings!
All that being said, I highly recommend you try out the PTR for yourself and see how the decrease in defensive stats affects your build and playstyle and how that will ultimately affect your farming. I found that I didn't need ignore pain anymore and replaced it with battle rage since it lasts 120 seconds now. I still use warcry impunity because I am still in the mindset that I really need resists, but that might change as I get more used to the new patch. Also, if you want to level a new char, try it on MP10! I think thats how diablo 3 was meant to be played on normal mode anyways.
Here is my gear : http://us.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Denkar-1391/hero/4973881
I prefer to be more defensive but I have switched to a high LOH 2H and would be open to dual wielding or sword and board. Keeping that in mind, any suggestions would be greatly appreciated! Its a lot easier to shop the AH with something in mind than blindly not know where my biggest upgrade might come from.
Revenge hits really hard now too. Also, I might switch nerves of steal for weapons master so I can 10% more crit since it is an axe.
Profile
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Denkar-1391/hero/4973881
I have since made an easy stroll into act 4 and should be done tonight or tomorrow.
I like that this build requires strength over crit so it iwill make my armor value go through the roof once I can gear for it.
I don't know how your survival stats will pan out, but then again I don't know what the "minimum's" are for this build, I am just kind of doing it and theorycrafting later.
Those 2h's are going to be brutal to get, 400 strength would be great for this, (maybe also some intel so the allres i lose from the shield is recouped a little bit)
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/calculator/barbarian#WckViP!beV!cZccbZ
Basically the play style is stand in the middle of tons of enemies and rend with blood lust rune (9% damage return), when it ticks at over 10k, you get at least 900 life back per tick and multiply that by how many enemies are around you (usually a lot in A3).
I use Revenge for even more life return and it hits a little harder. I don't think this is what is primarily keeping my life up, but I use it regardless because I am a more cautious player to begin with.
I havent had issues with fury generation since you only hit rend every 4 or 5 seconds (with frenzy, thats a hell of a long time and get lots of strikes in to build it back up.
Using WOTB is just a bonus and really makes the rend hit hard, and since rend it hitting hard, you're healing hard (i.e. you can stand in stacks of plague and molten without 1k allres or 50k life, i had 750 allres and 47k life).
Im using defensive runes because, again, I am more cautious because I haven't been through all of A3 yet, but I could've gotten by without one or two of them. If the beginning of A3 was any indication of how this build will work, the rest of the game is going to be a cake walk (some of it may be due to champ pack nerfed health, affix nerfs, etc, but I couldnt even kill a full pack of fallen peons before the patch so I made a huge jump in my progress)
I am going to try this build with a high damage 2h in the coming week or so once prices level a bit. I doubt the 2h will even need LOH with how much healing the build yields.
My stats: 47.5k life, 1663 strength, 13% crit , 700 LOH (i doubt more than this is necessary or if it is necessary at all, that is something I have to look into), 10k armor buffed with defensive runes, 750 all res minimum, damage 20.8 k dps
My stats are extremely attainable, most people reading this are probably way better in the stats category. But if you aren't i recommend giving it a shot. Happy hunting