Ranim, Jonty30 is right, the market bubble in real estate isn't don't bursting yet. That means those derivatives are not quite done unwinding yet. I don't know if well take a free fall plunge like we list September but the correction is far from over. However keep in mind Wall Street's worst news of the year always happens around October, if their is ugly news to be had, that's when it will rear it's head.
China will dump the dollar, as will several other countries but it will be a game in subtlety. No one wants to be the last one holding the biggest bag of worthless dollars. All of the dollar holding players know this too, so they will all reiterate their faith in the US, smile for the camera as they renew their beleif in our gov and FED. Behind the scenes though they will be reducing their intake of our money and getting rid of it quietly and slowly. China started doing that last January.
The question at what point is the gig up? It's a game of musical chairs and each round is leaving one less chair, at some point countries may panic and start dumping dollars as fast as they can. That may take a few years if they all play well.
The wound is huge that you can be sure, the decisions they are miking now will make it mortal. Like Jonty30 said Healthcare is the elephant in the room no one wants to address, they talk reform, but I ask with what money? There are compounding issues involved here and in the end both healthcare and social security are going to get cut, there is little way around it.
The monsters are this:
The largest generation of our times is getting ready to retire, baby boomers, they are 1/3 larger than the next generation which needs to support them Gen-X. Our financial system, fractional reserve banking, and markets in general require a constantly growing population to help support the retiring population. However this time it's the reverse, there are more sellers than buyers, that makes the below very rough.
Social security, it's broke and backed with IOU's, smaller GenX must now support the all these retiring people starting in 2016 and growing from there. Social security was designed based on old stats when the life expectancy of people was 65 to 70, now it's 75 to 80. It was not designed to support large numbers of people into their 70's and 80's.
Healthcare, the largest broke daddy of them all, medicaid and medicare are going to get severely hit with older people living longer but who healthcare costs only go up, up, up. Our total obligations between heaqlthcare and social security is $60 to $100 trillion by 2040.
Never before in history have so many bet their retirement on the stock market, all those 401/ks are wrapped up in mutual funds on the stock market. Many have seen their wealth dwindle, with a fragile market in the mix and people looking to their 401/k's for retirement they are required by law to take payments on by 2016. This is a time bomb waiting to go off.
Foreign debt, it has always been thr problem, now we're spending drunks trying delute ourselves into thinking we are helping the situation if we just throw more borrowed money in the right places forgetting we need pay back all this money (we won't) and trying not to notice our creditors are starting to cut up our credit cards.
The head comptroller for the US, David Walker at GAO has tried to get people listen for years. Good video's worth the watch.
60 Minutes - Head of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) David Walker says that the U.S. economy is unsustainable http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM
Holy crap, you can't make shit up this absurd! Biden has lost his marbles.
Joe Biden: 'We Have to Go Spend Money to Keep From Going Bankrupt'
'We're going to go bankrupt as a nation,' Biden said.
'Now, people when I say that look at me and say, 'What are you talking about, Joe' You're telling me we have to go spend money to keep from going bankrupt?' Biden said. 'The answer is yes, that's what I'm telling you.' http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=51162
Hopefully deficits don't matter, because if they do, then boy are we screwed. Today's chart was put together by Diapason Securities analyst Sean Corrigan (via Alphaville), and it shows the stunning rise of outlays and similar collapse in receipts. The blue line is the real killer, though, as it shows just how meager our tax revenue is compared to outlays. Chart is stunning
I must admit I am surprised the news is treating the below information like it's news, they were warned, they were warned, and they were warned since before the market fall and here they are acting like driveling little birds expecting to be fed the same information as if it were we're new stunning developments.
For God sakes if I, an average guy on the street, can come here and scream these messages for months and months now based on those they interview... What the hell is their problem for not listening to experts sitting in front of them?! How exactly is the news serving the interest of people when they continue to act like information starved children just learning all this again for the first time?
Well here it all is, again. still a good reinforcement of the information we need to know.
"We Have A Real Problem Coming" - Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren, head of the Congressional Oversight Panel, which yesterday released quite a sobering report on the true state of the banking industry, explains what is really going on with the increasingly irrelevant balance sheets of the bailout banks (all of them). Once again underscores what a farce the stress test was, the complicity of the accountants in making the transparency initiative a sham, and why the banks are still as underwater as they ever were.
"The World Is in Trouble": Deutsche Bank Chief Economist
The global economy still faces turmoil as government try to figure out how to move out of fiscal rescue packages, which could lead to another two downturns, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter said Thursday.
Taleb: The Black Swan graced CNBC with His presence this (yesterday) morning. In sum:
* We're all in denial
* We're replacing private debt with public debt.
* We're not dealing with the cancer in our banking system.
* We're not making the structural changes we need to make.
* We're not being aggressive enough about restructuring debt (debt for equity swaps).
* Bernanke is a wimpy Greenspan sycophant
* Obama's rewarding the fools who got us here (Summers, Bernanke, Geithner)
* The banksters are taking over again
I just pray the angry mobs of elderly don't come and rape me.
The young people in my state think it's the right thing and all the older people (middle-age +) are borderline civil war.
The thing about this whole Health buisness for me is that Doctors get about 90% or almost all of the profits made from services to people, while the insurance companies get very little. Even non-profit organizations like Blue Shield. So why don't they simply socialize doctors instead of regulating the insurance companies?
I mean wouldn't that relegate more profit to the insurance companies and thus cheaper prices and more people to work for?
Yeah there is a load of fear mongering going on now over health care, death squads etc. Funny none of these outraged people who think private health care which has doubled in cost over the 10 years are outraged at the insurance company death squads choosing those who gets to live or die every day, oh but that's just corporate corruption. These incensed people need to turn on their brains and realize national health care might suck, but then again so does private heath care currently for most Americans. Those on medicaid and medicare are already on a national health care program, and it's flat out of money and borrowing heavily. We have no easy answers now.
Yeah there is a load of fear mongering going on now over health care, death squads etc. Funny none of these outraged people who think private health care which has doubled in cost over the 10 years are outraged at the insurance company death squads choosing those who gets to live or die every day, oh but that's just corporate corruption. These incensed people need to turn on their brains and realize national health care might suck, but then again so does private heath care currently for most Americans. Those on medicaid and medicare are already on a national health care program, and it's flat out of money and borrowing heavily. We have no easy answers now.
Well what about just socializing medicine? (Not healthcare, but medication) Wouldn't that deflate the situation quite a bit?
It would help but health care costs are soaring on multiple areas. I happen to have worked on both sides this debate oddly enough but that is another topic. I will say a big part of the problem and is how the FDA goes approving drugs in the US, it doesn't consider clinical studies outside of the US. Drug companies like this because they invest heavily into a drug and then want to sell it for a profit. While there is nothing wrong wanting a profit, they effectively have manipulated the drug approval process (laws and standards which they helped write) into keeping out potentially better treatments from other countries that would undercut their market.
For example cimetidine is an anti-ulcer drug that was approved in the late 1970's by the FDA, drug companies sell and enjoy the right to sell this drug as an ulcer medication which inhibits stomach acid production. However there are volumes of foreign clinical studies showing gingerols and shogaols, active constituents inside ginger root have produced better results than cimetidine in treating ulcers. This natural treatment is approved in the European medicinal pharmacopeia, and a number of others including China most notably.
It can't be patented by a drug company and would distress corporate profits of companies that sell cimetidine should a standardized extract be allowed to be sold making the health claims on the label as the western allopathic drug. So instead natural health food companies have to dance around wording on their labels so not to attract the attention of the FDA, who might at any moment pay a visit to the company. It's not unheard of for the FDA to show up with the DEA and arrest employees, often they will fine or shut down companies. Often these natural remedies have to import/export as fertilizer, or some other benign classification to avoid getting held up by the FDA at customs.
If the drug companies and the AMA would ever allow a level playing field and embrace remedies used successfully in other countries we here in the US might see drug costs go down, but don't expect that government relationship to change any time soon. Drug companies today effectively have a monopoly on treatments for your health in the US. Interesting fact: MD's are not required to take a nutritional course, they in effect can practice medicine without having a basic nutritional background.
Gotta love your simplistic thinking, Vegas. So far I rarely see gov't go into debt due to social programs... it ends up being wars, lowering taxes, and other things much more often. Or politicians spending money on themselves.
"We don't have enough money" is not a viable excuse for America, and never has been, just been used by politicians and the like to avoid spending money where it's useful.
Equinox, I agree it's not an excuse but regardless the US is insolvent and every effort we try to make it appear we are not only puts us deeper into debt. Yes it's a simplistic statement but but my previous posts here have qualified it. Mike Maloney, an adviser of precious metals to Robert Kyosaki does a good job of explaining our predicament like few can.
Let me up front state Mike a proponent of gold and silver and sells it online, I believe both are going to be the best place to store ones wealth for the long term 5 to 10 years. I'm not advocating others take this view, I'm adding this video because Mike shows exactly what the government is doing to debase our currency, it's important people understand this because we are in real trouble now. The video starts off with one of his partners doing a lead in question so you get the impression of a infomercial but his answer is anything but a shallow response. Worth the 6 minutes watch, hopefully you understand my persistence on this thread.
.
I'm all for better health care, the only thing that concerns me is no one can answer the single most important question; with what money? I have asked that on multiple political posting boards for the last 2 years and not gotten a single good answer. China cut up our credit card last January, not a lot of people realize that, it's a huge ticking time bomb, in fact the largest bubble in history is our US debt held by the world. China now holds the largest financial bomb in modern history and it is trying to get rid of all those sterilized dollars it before the fuse runs out, to that I say "uhhhh good luck with that." I've posted a few stories like this but the message is clear, in just today from China, funny how the UK's BBC reports this, but look to US mainstream media for it, it's like a needle in haystack.
China reduces holdings in US debt
China reduced its holdings of US government debt by the largest margin in nearly nine years in June, according to data from the US Treasury. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8207174.stm
Yeah there is a load of fear mongering going on now over health care, death squads etc. Funny none of these outraged people who think private health care which has doubled in cost over the 10 years are outraged at the insurance company death squads choosing those who gets to live or die every day, oh but that's just corporate corruption. These incensed people need to turn on their brains and realize national health care might suck, but then again so does private heath care currently for most Americans. Those on medicaid and medicare are already on a national health care program, and it's flat out of money and borrowing heavily. We have no easy answers now.
The difference is that with insurance companies, you can choose to pay more for better services.
With public healthcare, even you are willing to pay alternatively, the government can say no.
Surveys show that about 85% of Americans were happy with their healthcare, so it couldn't have sucked that much.
I hope it all gets a lot worse. a few centuries down the road we'll be better off possibly. Either way we have to say fuck off to capitalism. We simply can't continue on with it. Scientists say we've got roughly 70 years before the planets resources are basically mined.
I hope it all gets a lot worse. a few centuries down the road we'll be better off possibly. Either way we have to say fuck off to capitalism. We simply can't continue on with it. Scientists say we've got roughly 70 years before the planets resources are basically mined.
That's what Thomas Malthus said, 250 years ago.
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As long as there are assets that don't have sufficient backing, you can expect the market to keep falling.
That's all falling markets really represent is the expulsion of unsupportable assets.
I'm glad I'll probably be dead before I need an unsupportable pension plan. :cool:
China will dump the dollar, as will several other countries but it will be a game in subtlety. No one wants to be the last one holding the biggest bag of worthless dollars. All of the dollar holding players know this too, so they will all reiterate their faith in the US, smile for the camera as they renew their beleif in our gov and FED. Behind the scenes though they will be reducing their intake of our money and getting rid of it quietly and slowly. China started doing that last January.
The question at what point is the gig up? It's a game of musical chairs and each round is leaving one less chair, at some point countries may panic and start dumping dollars as fast as they can. That may take a few years if they all play well.
What's the scenario when people get to that point of dumping dollars ASAP?
One word:
Healthcare.
Once the Democrats have passed that bill and have to suck the dollars out of the economy to pay for it, it's going to hurt.
You're talking about at least a 500 billion dollars a year to pay for this thing.
but don't be surprised if it pops a trill.
The monsters are this:
60 Minutes - Head of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) David Walker says that the U.S. economy is unsustainable
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM
I.O.U.S.A.: Byte-Sized - The 30 Minute Version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc9Bo
Joe Biden: 'We Have to Go Spend Money to Keep From Going Bankrupt'
From
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-fiscal-meltdown-2009-8
Hopefully deficits don't matter, because if they do, then boy are we screwed. Today's chart was put together by Diapason Securities analyst Sean Corrigan (via Alphaville), and it shows the stunning rise of outlays and similar collapse in receipts. The blue line is the real killer, though, as it shows just how meager our tax revenue is compared to outlays.
Chart is stunning
For God sakes if I, an average guy on the street, can come here and scream these messages for months and months now based on those they interview... What the hell is their problem for not listening to experts sitting in front of them?! How exactly is the news serving the interest of people when they continue to act like information starved children just learning all this again for the first time?
Well here it all is, again. still a good reinforcement of the information we need to know.
The young people in my state think it's the right thing and all the older people (middle-age +) are borderline civil war.
The thing about this whole Health buisness for me is that Doctors get about 90% or almost all of the profits made from services to people, while the insurance companies get very little. Even non-profit organizations like Blue Shield. So why don't they simply socialize doctors instead of regulating the insurance companies?
I mean wouldn't that relegate more profit to the insurance companies and thus cheaper prices and more people to work for?
For example cimetidine is an anti-ulcer drug that was approved in the late 1970's by the FDA, drug companies sell and enjoy the right to sell this drug as an ulcer medication which inhibits stomach acid production. However there are volumes of foreign clinical studies showing gingerols and shogaols, active constituents inside ginger root have produced better results than cimetidine in treating ulcers. This natural treatment is approved in the European medicinal pharmacopeia, and a number of others including China most notably.
It can't be patented by a drug company and would distress corporate profits of companies that sell cimetidine should a standardized extract be allowed to be sold making the health claims on the label as the western allopathic drug. So instead natural health food companies have to dance around wording on their labels so not to attract the attention of the FDA, who might at any moment pay a visit to the company. It's not unheard of for the FDA to show up with the DEA and arrest employees, often they will fine or shut down companies. Often these natural remedies have to import/export as fertilizer, or some other benign classification to avoid getting held up by the FDA at customs.
If the drug companies and the AMA would ever allow a level playing field and embrace remedies used successfully in other countries we here in the US might see drug costs go down, but don't expect that government relationship to change any time soon. Drug companies today effectively have a monopoly on treatments for your health in the US. Interesting fact: MD's are not required to take a nutritional course, they in effect can practice medicine without having a basic nutritional background.
"We don't have enough money" is not a viable excuse for America, and never has been, just been used by politicians and the like to avoid spending money where it's useful.
Seriously, why is this thread still alive?
Let me up front state Mike a proponent of gold and silver and sells it online, I believe both are going to be the best place to store ones wealth for the long term 5 to 10 years. I'm not advocating others take this view, I'm adding this video because Mike shows exactly what the government is doing to debase our currency, it's important people understand this because we are in real trouble now. The video starts off with one of his partners doing a lead in question so you get the impression of a infomercial but his answer is anything but a shallow response. Worth the 6 minutes watch, hopefully you understand my persistence on this thread.
.
I'm all for better health care, the only thing that concerns me is no one can answer the single most important question; with what money? I have asked that on multiple political posting boards for the last 2 years and not gotten a single good answer. China cut up our credit card last January, not a lot of people realize that, it's a huge ticking time bomb, in fact the largest bubble in history is our US debt held by the world. China now holds the largest financial bomb in modern history and it is trying to get rid of all those sterilized dollars it before the fuse runs out, to that I say "uhhhh good luck with that." I've posted a few stories like this but the message is clear, in just today from China, funny how the UK's BBC reports this, but look to US mainstream media for it, it's like a needle in haystack.
China reduces holdings in US debt
China reduced its holdings of US government debt by the largest margin in nearly nine years in June, according to data from the US Treasury.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8207174.stm
The difference is that with insurance companies, you can choose to pay more for better services.
With public healthcare, even you are willing to pay alternatively, the government can say no.
Surveys show that about 85% of Americans were happy with their healthcare, so it couldn't have sucked that much.
That's what Thomas Malthus said, 250 years ago.