Magic Find and its efficiency: A statistical insight

  • #1103
    You won't ever notice the difference between random and pseudo random unless you get your hands on the table where the random numbers are stored. Just like in the Pokemon games where the PRNG was decrypted.

    However, there seems to be a problem sometimes where the variables for loot drop seem not to update probably. But that's not because of the PRNG itself.
  • #1104
    Quote from Cyeron

    Quote from Bagstone

    TL;DR: Yes, computer program are not really random, they're pseudo-random. But no, your loot does not follow any pattern that you can construct based on your previous loot, let alone anticipate to influence drops.

    I don't think I have ever mentioned the last part you say in the above quote, have I? If I somehow made it seem that way I apologize. That has never been of my interest.

    Nope, you indeed never said that. In fact, I would agree to everything in your post. However, I felt that it could've been misinterpreted and lead to a discussion about the lack of true randomness and that this makes loot patterns emerge. You also mentioned the cache issue yourself - this is a bug, exactly. However, drops of similar items or "fishy" things are just a streak of (bad) luck and have nothing to do with PRNG. Basically, I wanted to avoid that people went ahead and make new tinfoil hats ;-)
  • #1105
    well to me pure random is boring so i will always look for patterns and hope they made little secrets in the game to make it actually interesting and not a bunch of stupidity rolling a massive online dice i want control i want some kind of strategy that yields better odds even if slight i want to min max you know that desire/need?

    take d2 for example for me the top 3 fun things to do were pvp character building and farming rng played a big role in farming but i loved how things like ilevel(map/mob), maxrunedrop, mob density, bosses and magic find mingled into so many long short medium routes in d2 and in d3 i just dont feel that theres enough diversity to make it enjoyable so i go and seek it out and sometimes probably imagine it im sure im not the only one guilty of this i think this is a big flaw in the design

    d3 has dumbed down magic find sooo much thers no good stuff for low magic find(runes,white items,socketed items,gold for gambling) theres ~half the difficulty+loot potential tradeoff even with mp10 theres no need to balance magic find at certain levels plus too easy to get with paragon too easy to be in max level areas yet limited to 1 act a game(how do you too much and too little content at once this is just ultra fail) game scaling feeling off for farming in many places due to 4player design in terms of level sizes and mob density just to name a few problems
  • #1106
    Quote from m4st0d0n

    I don't consider using hardware RNG being an overkill for a game like Diablo 3. Millions of items are generated every minute, and the economy can be easily flooded, so chances need to be infinitesimal - but still measurable. Diablo's economy is built upon probability. If math doesn't do what it's supposed to do because of a badly implemented (P)RNG, the game won't work as developers planned either.
    I think you are referring to true randomness as source for a PRNG - well, that is not relevant if the bug is somewhere in the PRNG.
    I don't think the economy is sensitive to issues of the RNG, unless it completely changes drop rates for items. If there is a bugged double drop every 100 legendary drops, we might get 1% more legendary items. So what.

    Quote from JKlimek

    Those just generate a starting point for the seed program. Even though the starting seed may be "more random" it's still not technically random from a statistical perspective.
    That was my point. A source of true randomness for every drop (perfect in terms of randomness) would be overkill.
  • #1107
    There's some interesting discussions floating around about the bonus item from higher MP and how much benefit it gives, since it supposedly only drops gear as the bonus item. The proc, however, depends on the mob dropping something. I'm wondering, has anyone done any study on slots or individual drop chances for any normal (white) mobs? I realize the gear drop chance likely varies from mob to mob but data for even just 1 mob could help.

    Here's some math with the approximation that when a mob drops something, it has a 1/3 chance each to drop either gear, gold, or pot/tome. The post is made by Shandlar on the official forums. The interesting conclusion is that MP8 becomes efficient if you only run MP0 3x as fast or less. So if MP8 takes you half the time, you're better off with MP8.

    link: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/7416065126?page=4#61


    Bonus item chance doesn't only trigger if the mob was going to drop an item. If the mob drops a pile of gold, or a potion, or a tome, you still get a chance of a bonus item.

    So if a mob has a 30% chance to drop 'something' then a 33% chance of item, 33% chance of gold, 33% chance of potion/tome....

    10% of kills will drop an item in MP0.

    21.3% of kills will drop an extra item in MP8.

    So in essence you are more than doubling your item drops from white mobs.

    My runs are pretty much spot on 1200 white mobs and 50 elites (roughly 25 packs)

    So 25 packs = 5 * 3.5 + 20 * 4.5 = 108 items from elites
    1200 * 0.10 = 120 items from whites

    228 items per MP0 run.

    MP8 would be...

    Same 108 items from elites
    Same 120 items from whites normally

    1200 * 0.71 * 0.30 = 256 bonus items.

    484 items instead of 228 item drops per run, or an increase of 2.12x as many items. Then a 200% increase to magic find is applied to all drops.

    So 375 vs 575 is 42% effective improved chance of legendary drop. 2.12 * 1.42 = 3.012

    That means MP8 vs MP0 you would get more legendaries an hour as long as you can do MP8 within 3x as long.

    I'm using the numbers we've recieved by blizzard to do that calculation, however they have admitted that not all mobs can drop bonus items, and some have less than 30%, while others have higher, that is only the average chance to drop 'something', so I feel its not reasonable to just take it at face value.
    My EHP and DPS Spreadsheet, mostly useful for wizards.
    My wizard, mostly useful for killing demons and collecting loot.
    Wizard CM DPS Simulator, written in Matlab, release version 1.01
    Comprehensive CMWW Guide, including gear and build suggestions, plus Uber strats
    Arcane Mines Guide, detailed guide for the highest dps wizard build, including vids
  • #1108
    do bonus items drop off of destructables/chests etc and do you think magic find sneaks in and affects the bonus item roll?

    wtf is with rng i have gotten hand crossbow set nat's in exact same spot in keep dephs 2 map 4 times now in that wood floor area with 4 metal grates by the 2 further north metalgrates perhaps its due to that skelie spawn dieing in exact same grid point and that settles what legendary it willbe? could test this by kiling stuck mobs like the big wurms that crawl up walls and spit out demons
  • #1109
    Quote from omnom

    do bonus items drop off of destructables/chests etc and do you think magic find sneaks in and affects the bonus item roll?

    wtf is with rng i have gotten hand crossbow set nat's in exact same spot in keep dephs 2 map 4 times now in that wood floor area with 4 metal grates by the 2 further north metalgrates perhaps its due to that skelie spawn dieing in exact same grid point and that settles what legendary it willbe? could test this by kiling stuck mobs like the big wurms that crawl up walls and spit out demons

    No, Bonus Items only drop from mobs. MF can affect what is dropped since it is always a gear drop, but it won't increase the chance of a bonus item to drop.
    My EHP and DPS Spreadsheet, mostly useful for wizards.
    My wizard, mostly useful for killing demons and collecting loot.
    Wizard CM DPS Simulator, written in Matlab, release version 1.01
    Comprehensive CMWW Guide, including gear and build suggestions, plus Uber strats
    Arcane Mines Guide, detailed guide for the highest dps wizard build, including vids
  • #1110
    I tried to get some players to collect data for trashmobs, but nothing appeared so far and I don't play any more.

    The quoted calculation assumes that trashmob-drops and elite drops have the same quality. As legendary items are the interesting drops, this might be true (but I did not see convincing data yet).
  • #1111
    Not sure if any of you other MF researchers are still playing or not, but I´ve just used the "Ask the Devs" round 1 to ask for the legendary drop chance.

    It would be nice to know the value, so please vote for my question(s).

    US
    http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/7710222398?page=7#128

    EU
    http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6444685753?page=1#12

    Thanks in advance.
  • #1112
    Will do! Good idea :-).
  • #1113
    Nice idea, ill vote for your questions too!
  • #1114
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