Part 1/3
Today I want to start a 3 part mini-series where I attempt to find a positive correlation between Ring of Royal Grandeur/cache legendary drops and farming bounties using the Junger method. The general idea is to avoid killing, opening, or breaking anything unrelated to your bounties in order for the 'pity timer' to kick in and fill your cache bags with legendaries. This is purely tinfoil, so draw your own conclusions. In this first video I pop 25x normal Act 1 caches and get 3 legendaries, one of them a ring. Enjoy!
Today I continue the mini-series by opening 25x A1 T4 caches, all solo farmed. I talk about the 'unavoidable' legendaries I found along the way, get 4 legendaries from bags (no rings), and discuss more tinfoil shenanigans. My goal is not to prove this method one way or another - I simply don't (and won't) have a large enough sample size - but rather to see if it has any merit. Enjoy!
In this last part of the mini series I decide to open 25 more normal act 1 bags, as these are the easiest to farm. The result? No legendaries of any sort, but plenty found throughout. The conclusion? Nothing that would suggest Junger 'Rules' work. In this video I also talk about potential loot system mechanics and why they may be so difficult to accurately assess. Enjoy!
Why not take a scientific approach and instead try to disprove the junger theorem. If you totally fail disprove it then it maybe its true.
For any correlation you find to be taken seriously by anyone with half a scientifc brain, they would expect large sample sizes. As a starting point, how about opening 20,000 horadric caches ( 10,000 farmed using junger, 10,000 without ) and capture it all on video as evidence ?. The sample size may not be big enough ~ depends on how we handle random noise.
I am not sure how long it will take you but if you have the time, fair enough. Who am I to knock you for putting so much effort into to proving something which a D3 developer could probably check on and confirm if he/she were allowed to within the space of 3 minutes.
Why not take a scientific approach and instead try to disprove the junger theorem. If you totally fail disprove it then it maybe its true.
For any correlation you find to be taken seriously by anyone with half a scientifc brain, they would expect large sample sizes. As a starting point, how about opening 20,000 horadric caches ( 10,000 farmed using junger, 10,000 without ) and capture it all on video as evidence ?. The sample size may not be big enough ~ depends on how we handle random noise.
I am not sure how long it will take you but if you have the time, fair enough. Who am I to knock you for putting so much effort into to proving something which a D3 developer could probably check on and confirm if he/she were allowed to within the space of 3 minutes.
Realistically, it's not even a theory - if you want to get all scientific - it's more of a hypothesis. There's not enough evidence, anywhere, to show it IS true. Likewise, as I said in the video, I'm not going to be able to prove it one way or another. I'm just going to do some bounty sets and see what happens, letting the viewers decide. My personal feeling is that it's a bunch of hogwash, but we'll see.
Correct me if I am wrong - and I am sure you will - but that doesnt apply to caches. Cant remember if it is actually from a blue post or just someone testing it, but you can farm caches with one char and then open them with another, getting "smart" loot for the char opening them - hence they cant be pre-rolled.
EDIT: spelling is hard ..
thought they were. thought every things that drops is already rolled.
thought they were. thought every things that drops is already rolled.
Horadric Cache loot is rolled upon opening the Cache. Source
I know there have been conflicting statements in the past but I tested this myself and can confirm that the Smart loot is indeed rolled for the class that opens the cache, not the one that acquires it.
Hence, I don't believe that you can actively utilize the so called "pity timer" to increase your chances of a Cache Legendary when trying to avoid drops while farming the Caches.
I know all of this, BUT there's a theory/opinion/whatever that the legendary ITSELF is rolled when you GET the cache, and then it rolls stats when you OPEN it depending on the character. That blue post doesn't confirm OR deny that idea. So it's possible that a cache will contain a ring when it drops, and will roll dex/int/str on that ring depending on which class opens it.
Horadric Cache loot is rolled upon opening the Cache. Source I know there have been conflicting statements in the past but I tested this myself and can confirm that the Smart loot is indeed rolled for the class that opens the cache, not the one that acquires it.
It is still conflicting because they said that farming on T6 increases the chance to get legendaries from caches. So, I guess when you turn in the quest the contents are being rolled (i.e., does it have a cache legendary or arbitrary legendary, does it have rares and if yes how many) and when you open it the stats on those items are being rolled.
If someone wants to shed light on this, try the following: farm 10 or 20 caches on one class and then open them on a different one. Count the class-specific legendaries. That should at least tell us when the specific item type is being rolled.
So does it matter if you get a torment cache or a norm cache. is there higher chances of leg dropping from cache in torment? If there is a higher chance of leg dropping from a torment cache then one has to argue that yes indeed caches are all ready rolled when u get em. Not saying I am right. Just saying it sounds logical.
So does it matter if you get a torment cache or a norm cache. is there higher chances of leg dropping from cache in torment? If there is a higher chance of leg dropping from a torment cache then one has to argue that yes indeed caches are all ready rolled when u get em. Not saying I am right. Just saying it sounds logical.
It does matter which difficulty you get the Caches on, see the 2.0.5 patch notes.
But as I stated above, this doesn't prove anything. Especially since we know for sure that not all of the rolls have happened before the Cache is opened.
well. If torment lvl caches have higher chance of a leg. then it has to be determined once u get that cache. if it isn't then you would be able to take normal lvl cache to a torment game and open it for that higher chance.. no? as for the "smart loot, stat whatever" that is determined on what class opens it or what class finds a leg.
When your playing your toon and you kill an elite and a leg drops (already rolled) and you id it. does the "smart roll" if you will; only determined once id?
interesting idea i think to try out. Go farming for legs with one class but do not id it. let another class id it. (not the caches, but a leg that drops from killing)
Today I opened 5 normal caches and got my 15th RoRG , I broke stuff , killed stuff , even did some cursed chest events I happened across , 2 legendaries dropped while farming these caches . Yet still got one iring out of the 5 .
Last week I got 1 from 5 caches in 2 consecutive days , all normal act 1 , I also have had 2 in 8 caches before . These are all normal runs breaking / killing / looting and pillaging and still have 15 of the little beggars .
I usually run these on my DH , being the fastest , then switch to whatever char I feel needs the ring or try for an upgrade to an already existing ring .
Even the idea that the cache contents (NOT the smart loot) are determined on receiving the cache has been shown to be false with the PTR. Copy a character with a few caches and open them. The next day copy the same character and open them again. Different loot. What's odd about this is that the blues have confirmed with no uncertainty that the cache contents are determined upon receipt of the cache and that the smart loot is the only thing that's not predetermined. So, the blues lied? Or they're misinformed by the devs? Or the PTR forces the caches to reroll? Who knows? I like to think of Diablo as the game that even the insiders aren't sure how things always work.
One thing I do believe 100% is that the junger thing is BS. The pity timer is so long that there's no way you can reliably take advantage of it. The junger method is just a classic example of the gambler's fallacy.
What's odd about this is that the blues have confirmed with no uncertainty that the cache contents are determined upon receipt of the cache and that the smart loot is the only thing that's not predetermined. So, the blues lied? Or they're misinformed by the devs?
Do you have a source for that?
To me it seems highly unlikely that they'd not only determine the items in the cache, but all the stats except for anything related to smart loot (primary stat, skill-specific properties, class-specific properties) and then let those roll when the cache is opened. That really goes against how items are rolled in this game and would require a lot of working around existing systems to accomplish.
What legendary you get is(if any) determined upon receiving cache. I had a stash tab full of T4 caches when I copied to PTR, and the same cache that contained a RORG on PTR, also contained a RORG on live, only different stats. So legendary contents is rolled upon receiving, but not stats of it.
What legendary you get is(if any) determined upon receiving cache. I had a stash tab full of T4 caches when I copied to PTR, and the same cache that contained a RORG on PTR, also contained a RORG on live, only different stats. So legendary contents is rolled upon receiving, but not stats of it.
Interesting but PTR is PTR and means nothing in this case. The process of coping caches could or could not re roll its contents and we would never be able to prove it.
Anyways I thought there was a recentish blue post that outlined exactly how this all worked. If I find the damn thing again I'll book mark it.
What legendary you get is(if any) determined upon receiving cache. I had a stash tab full of T4 caches when I copied to PTR, and the same cache that contained a RORG on PTR, also contained a RORG on live, only different stats. So legendary contents is rolled upon receiving, but not stats of it.
That's easily chalked up to RNG, though.
Open that same cache on the PTR 50 times, though, and if it always contains a RoRG, you might just be on to something.
Really? Tinfoil is strong here. We all know from previous experiences that LIve stats copy over to PTR. Remember the unid exploit a while ago that blizz had to fix?
And shaggy, out of 35 T4 caches, the same exact cache contained a RORG? Sure, coincidences can happen, but that is extremely unlikely.
Really? Tinfoil is strong here. We all know from previous experiences that LIve stats copy over to PTR. Remember the unid exploit a while ago that blizz had to fix?
And shaggy, out of 35 T4 caches, the same exact cache contained a RORG? Sure, coincidences can happen, but that is extremely unlikely.
very interesting. I'm going to try this tonight. gather 15 or so caches copy account over PTR. and do some testing in opening them on dif toons.
Here's what we know - what blues have told us and what has been linked in this thread earlier:
1) T2+ caches have an increased chance to drop legendary items. So T3 has a higher chance than T2, T4 has a higher chance than T3, etc. This also implies that caches below T2 (normal > T1) have an identical drop chance for legendaries. This hasn't been confirmed or denied, but it's implicit.
2) The stat rolls on cache items roll for the class that opens them. So you can farm them on a dex class, open them on an int class, and receive int-based rolls. This is easily proven. Don't be lazy, try it out for yourself.
Here's what we DON'T know, unless someone can provide me with a source:
1) For class specific items like wands, quivers, etc, are they 'blank' until you open the cache? So you farm on a DH, your cache has a rare 'class specific' quiver, but then you open on wizard, so does that quiver instead become a source?
2) Do legendaries roll inside a cache at the time of the drop or at the time of opening? PTR is an interesting case, and makes you think that it rolls at the time of drop - not at the time of opening - IF you can show the exact same cache rolling a legendary after multiple PTR copies. Once you copy from live > PTR, smart loot inside PTR takes over, so it no longer has to do with live. But if you popped 25 caches and the 5th one contained a legendary on live, then you copied to PTR and the 5th one again contained a legendary, then it may mean it rolls on drop, not on open.
--
In the end, like I said I'm just doing 3 videos to see if there's any correlation, a la something GLARINGLY obvious. Like, if I get 5 RoRGs, then we could be on to something. That's unlikely though. It was (is?) a hot enough topic on d3 forums so I wanted to experiment with it, that's all.
Today I want to start a 3 part mini-series where I attempt to find a positive correlation between Ring of Royal Grandeur/cache legendary drops and farming bounties using the Junger method. The general idea is to avoid killing, opening, or breaking anything unrelated to your bounties in order for the 'pity timer' to kick in and fill your cache bags with legendaries. This is purely tinfoil, so draw your own conclusions. In this first video I pop 25x normal Act 1 caches and get 3 legendaries, one of them a ring. Enjoy!
http://youtu.be/C1lghPED1qQ
Part 2/3
Today I continue the mini-series by opening 25x A1 T4 caches, all solo farmed. I talk about the 'unavoidable' legendaries I found along the way, get 4 legendaries from bags (no rings), and discuss more tinfoil shenanigans. My goal is not to prove this method one way or another - I simply don't (and won't) have a large enough sample size - but rather to see if it has any merit. Enjoy!
http://youtu.be/cHtQdRH73UI
Part 3/3
In this last part of the mini series I decide to open 25 more normal act 1 bags, as these are the easiest to farm. The result? No legendaries of any sort, but plenty found throughout. The conclusion? Nothing that would suggest Junger 'Rules' work. In this video I also talk about potential loot system mechanics and why they may be so difficult to accurately assess. Enjoy!
http://youtu.be/fHwsxdyw9zY
MeatHeadGaming - YouTube - Twitch - Facebook - Web
For any correlation you find to be taken seriously by anyone with half a scientifc brain, they would expect large sample sizes. As a starting point, how about opening 20,000 horadric caches ( 10,000 farmed using junger, 10,000 without ) and capture it all on video as evidence ?. The sample size may not be big enough ~ depends on how we handle random noise.
I am not sure how long it will take you but if you have the time, fair enough. Who am I to knock you for putting so much effort into to proving something which a D3 developer could probably check on and confirm if he/she were allowed to within the space of 3 minutes.
MeatHeadGaming - YouTube - Twitch - Facebook - Web
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
MeatHeadGaming - YouTube - Twitch - Facebook - Web
If someone wants to shed light on this, try the following: farm 10 or 20 caches on one class and then open them on a different one. Count the class-specific legendaries. That should at least tell us when the specific item type is being rolled.
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
When your playing your toon and you kill an elite and a leg drops (already rolled) and you id it. does the "smart roll" if you will; only determined once id?
starting to confuse myself here.
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
Last week I got 1 from 5 caches in 2 consecutive days , all normal act 1 , I also have had 2 in 8 caches before . These are all normal runs breaking / killing / looting and pillaging and still have 15 of the little beggars .
I usually run these on my DH , being the fastest , then switch to whatever char I feel needs the ring or try for an upgrade to an already existing ring .
One thing I do believe 100% is that the junger thing is BS. The pity timer is so long that there's no way you can reliably take advantage of it. The junger method is just a classic example of the gambler's fallacy.
To me it seems highly unlikely that they'd not only determine the items in the cache, but all the stats except for anything related to smart loot (primary stat, skill-specific properties, class-specific properties) and then let those roll when the cache is opened. That really goes against how items are rolled in this game and would require a lot of working around existing systems to accomplish.
Anyways I thought there was a recentish blue post that outlined exactly how this all worked. If I find the damn thing again I'll book mark it.
Open that same cache on the PTR 50 times, though, and if it always contains a RoRG, you might just be on to something.
And shaggy, out of 35 T4 caches, the same exact cache contained a RORG? Sure, coincidences can happen, but that is extremely unlikely.
http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Time2Kill-1230/hero/23330792
1) T2+ caches have an increased chance to drop legendary items. So T3 has a higher chance than T2, T4 has a higher chance than T3, etc. This also implies that caches below T2 (normal > T1) have an identical drop chance for legendaries. This hasn't been confirmed or denied, but it's implicit.
2) The stat rolls on cache items roll for the class that opens them. So you can farm them on a dex class, open them on an int class, and receive int-based rolls. This is easily proven. Don't be lazy, try it out for yourself.
Here's what we DON'T know, unless someone can provide me with a source:
1) For class specific items like wands, quivers, etc, are they 'blank' until you open the cache? So you farm on a DH, your cache has a rare 'class specific' quiver, but then you open on wizard, so does that quiver instead become a source?
2) Do legendaries roll inside a cache at the time of the drop or at the time of opening? PTR is an interesting case, and makes you think that it rolls at the time of drop - not at the time of opening - IF you can show the exact same cache rolling a legendary after multiple PTR copies. Once you copy from live > PTR, smart loot inside PTR takes over, so it no longer has to do with live. But if you popped 25 caches and the 5th one contained a legendary on live, then you copied to PTR and the 5th one again contained a legendary, then it may mean it rolls on drop, not on open.
--
In the end, like I said I'm just doing 3 videos to see if there's any correlation, a la something GLARINGLY obvious. Like, if I get 5 RoRGs, then we could be on to something. That's unlikely though. It was (is?) a hot enough topic on d3 forums so I wanted to experiment with it, that's all.
MeatHeadGaming - YouTube - Twitch - Facebook - Web