Don't you also think its a bit naive to also believe everything a developer tells you and take it at face value? Especially with anecdotal evidence that weighs strongly in the opposite direction.
Also the argument against his post still has not been presented. Your just claiming that his story and sources are in question because they do not have names and figures attached.
Why is it so unfathomable that blizzard wouldn't use a similar system for their game? All the boxes are checked for motive. Past experience has shown they are capable/have used such a system.
I'd still like to hear that argument against what Polyrane is presenting here?
Well obviously the biggest argument is that, all other things aside, anecdotes are just that.
Just because a few faceless lead game designers told some guy about a "mechanic" that clearly sounds more like a tinhat theory than anything else doesn't really verify it. People can make stories up left and right, and I'm not accusing Polyrane of lying, but I'm saying it's naive to believe that everything you hear on the internet is true. And, even more important, it's naive as hell to believe that these people who told him this were being 100% genuine.
And then you have to factor in that this is basically a secondhand story so there's the "whisper down the lane effect" where details become more obfuscated the more times the "story" is retold. I mean he's basically condensing multiple stories from multiple people who presumably told them to him at different points in time and then retelling it to us. There's clearly room for minor details, which often times have major repercussions, to be forgotten and left out. This is why people want to hear things like this directly from Josh's mouth and not from the secretary of the guy who works for the guy who works for the lady who reports to Josh. The closer to the source the more reliable the information. Period.
Lastly, and most importantly, it's just absurd to think that because a few "lead game designers" (faceless people not tied to any products) say that they implemented something like this in their games that it's something Blizzard did. I mean PoE and D3 both have netcode, so they have to be the same... right? That would be a silly assumption to operate under. So to assume that because SOME un-named games allegedly have this system implemented that it justifies an otherwise un-justified theory... is equally as silly.
I mean I was sitting at a stop light today and all the Hondas I could see were grey. That must mean that all Honda vehicles are grey.
And I actually support everything that Shaggy has said. I know that these conversations took place and their evidence to me was presented. I know its true - but I do not expect everyone else to believe me. Which is why (out of respect from the "not true until you link it" threads here on the forums) I do not try to go out of my way and say that this theory is fact. I believe it and I bring it out there for other people to consider it. I'm talking shop about a game like other folks are doing. I personally get a little hot when I hear the tin foil remark, but that's okay; what you believe about me is not the issue. What may or may not be true about the design of one particular game, is what's being considered.
My brother-in-law was the lead designer for a Dungeons & Dragons game a few years back. I played it for a short while ( was addicted to WoW at the time) and obviously we spoke at length about the luck mechanic in his game as well as WoW.
I state facts here: he was not a designer for any of Blizzards games. He was a designer for another company. His game had the luck factor in it. He works in the industry and is friends with other designers of other companies that use this mechanic, just as much as the use the mechanic of the word "sword" to represent a sword in the game. Therefore I'm comfortable in speculating that it probably exists in the Diablo 3 franchise as well.
What amazes me is the standpoint that because I can't prove something, means that it doesn't exist. I wish there were a little more room for diplomacy in some of these discussions. That last sentence was not directed at Shaggy - just a general observation of many standpoints from posters about issues they don't believe in.
What amazes me is the standpoint that because I can't prove something, means that it doesn't exist. I wish there were a little more room for diplomacy in some of these discussions. That last sentence was not directed at Shaggy - just a general observation of many standpoints from posters about issues they don't believe in.
There is an invisible flying spaghetti monster that lives above your house. All your bad RNG fortune is due to him. You can't see him or interact with him but he's there. I can't prove that he's there but that doesn't mean he doesn't exist. Now please discuss my theory but I expect you to be only diplomatic.
Don't you also think its a bit naive to also believe everything a developer tells you and take it at face value? Especially with anecdotal evidence that weighs strongly in the opposite direction.
Also the argument against his post still has not been presented. Your just claiming that his story and sources are in question because they do not have names and figures attached.
Why is it so unfathomable that blizzard wouldn't use a similar system for their game? All the boxes are checked for motive. Past experience has shown they are capable/have used such a system.
Occam's Razor. Given that it is not difficult to have a normal RNG create the behaviour people experience (in fact, if there aren't at least some people who experience this behaviour, the RNG is not working properly), the razor dictates that the simpler explanation is the better one, unless evidence proves otherwise. ie. It's not the "RNG crowd" who needs to produce evidence. It's the "conspiracy crowd".
I am with shaggy on the missing "details" myself. Given how the "prevent really bad RNG rolls" mechanic in D3 (which is actually a break from proper RNG) was misrepresented (someone please help me find the blue post on this so I get it first hand), it is not unreasonable for a similar mechanic to distort through the word of mouth into something about making certain characters "lucky".
Also the argument against his post still has not been presented. Your just claiming that his story and sources are in question because they do not have names and figures attached.
Well, yeah, and that's the same reason that anonymous sources carry less weight in reporting than out-in-the-open sources. Not only does anonymity cast doubt on the veracity of the facts being presented, but it makes them unverifiable.
I can claim that I know someone who works at Blizzard who says that they absolutely don't have some "luck factor" in D3. No one can disprove me because I haven't said WHO. No one would look upon me saying that with any degree of credibility.... but when it comes to some random dude verifying your theory, in your opinion it becomes the most credible statement known to man. It's really a case of someone pouring through statistics to find the one number that supports their claim while ignoring all the other numbers that contradict it.
Furthermore, just because some guy used a mechanic like this in D&D does not mean any other game developer did, or did not, use it. And that's really the whole problem with anecdotal evidence. We have people posting "I FARMED X FOR Y HOURS AND NEVER GOT Z" and we also have people posting "I GOT 17 LEGENDARIES IN FOUR HOURS." Any degree of intelligence tells us that both are anecdotes and both are probably not the experience of the average player - as one would expect with a pRNG system.
I was at a stop light and there were five other cars stopped there. All were painted grey, including mine. Therefore cars are all grey. That's what you're trying to do by saying that just because this "luck" system was used in one game that it's definitely used in all other games, and it's clearly a leap of faith and a massive gap in logic.
As has been said by others, Occam's Razor says that (all other things equal) the fewer unfounded assumptions a hypothesis makes, the better. It doesn't guarantee that more-complex explanations are incorrect, but it suggests that without certainty, the best bet is always on the least-complex answer. So you're left choosing between:
RNG
and
Nebulous luck-based system whereby the server randomly assigns good and bad luck factors to characters to somehow promote the players to play more which really amounts to nothing more than a secondary layer of RNG - you're being randomly assigned a factor that influences how much the actual RNG effects your character.
One is simple and accurately explains what's going on. The second is basically taking the first and multiplying it by itself to achieve the exact same end result. Is there really any question as to why someone would default to "RNG is RNG" in any discussion like this? Without some semblance of proof that this "luck" system exists in D3 (not in any other game) then you're simply proposing something that hinges on faith rather than explainable, tangible, and logical understanding of the situation.
I don't want to join the complaining that there are too few legendaries, but in my opinion too much weird stuff happens with the loot that makes it very unlikely that only RNG is involved. Of course this is only anecdotical but a friend of mine found 3 pieces of the Immortal King set within 2,5 hours (believe it or not) while I haven't even seen a piece of Tal Rasha's with approximately ~3 hours played a day since release. I also run a lot of rifts with friends who have worse equip than me (mainly because they switch chars very often) and I have the impression that they are getting a lot more legs than I do (just as if the game wants to close the item gap). I would be very interested if some of you have the same feeling or not.
Are you sure they are getting more legendaries than you do? That it isn't because the legendaries that you have gotten turned into forgotten souls, while theirs didn't?
I don't want to join the complaining that there are too few legendaries, but in my opinion too much weird stuff happens with the loot that makes it very unlikely that only RNG is involved. Of course this is only anecdotical but a friend of mine found 3 pieces of the Immortal King set within 2,5 hours (believe it or not) while I haven't even seen a piece of Tal Rasha's with approximately ~3 hours played a day since release. I also run a lot of rifts with friends who have worse equip than me (mainly because they switch chars very often) and I have the impression that they are getting a lot more legs than I do (just as if the game wants to close the item gap). I would be very interested if some of you have the same feeling or not.
This doesn't hold true for my character. I'm generally the most geared person in the group and still get a ton of legs.
I'm bored as hell with this game. It's so low on my gaming priority that I haven't played it for over a week. I get that "RNG is RNG", and I do not want legendary items handed to me like candy, even though it seems like they are to some people at this point, but I'm just done with this game for the time being. I played for hours and hours almost everyday since RoS launch and have only gotten a handful of legendary items. One was a clear upgrade, but the other few I use were side-grades at best and the rest went straight to the salvage table. The last straw for me was joining a game with my friend and he picks up 3-4 in less than half an hour and I got diddly squat. Not bashing the game, not calling for changes. I'm just bored with it and done for now.
I'm bored as hell with this game. It's so low on my gaming priority that I haven't played it for over a week. I get that "RNG is RNG", and I do not want legendary items handed to me like candy, even though it seems like they are to some people at this point, but I'm just done with this game for the time being. I played for hours and hours almost everyday since RoS launch and have only gotten a handful of legendary items. One was a clear upgrade, but the other few I use were side-grades at best and the rest went straight to the salvage table. The last straw for me was joining a game with my friend and he picks up 3-4 in less than half an hour and I got diddly squat. Not bashing the game, not calling for changes. I'm just bored with it and done for now.
So why are you browsing/posting on a diablo 3 forum?
What I am saying is that since your gear is better, most legendaries for you are crap, so they become forgotten souls without second thought, and don't even remember it. On the other hand, your friends with poor gear will be excited and talk about every single legendaries they find, which gives you the impression that they found a lot of them.
Generally when I do rifts with my friends, I find more often than not, they get a lot more than me. Whether mine become Forgotten Souls or not. Right after the most recent buff, I had gotten 1 legendary while everyone else in my group of four were above 10. By the time we stopped playing that night/next morning, everyone in the group had well over 4x the amount that I had gotten. Now I am the most geared in our group because I literally have no life and play hours upon hours each day. And I know that RNG is RNG. But to see other people get that much more in one stretch of time is really discouraging. Whether or not anyone's legendary drops were upgrades is irrelevant, its just the fact that it feels like lesser geared people I play with have higher drop rates than I do. I even run Cain's 3pc and a Flawless Imperial Topaz in my helm. I have like ~120% MF while the rest of my group is at like 30%. Its always so weird.
There actually is suppose to be a hidden timer that after about 1 hours play/killing time, the game checks to see if you have recieved a legendary and if not, drops one for you. This is the questionable mechanic that ppl i think are complaining about. But as Blizzard has said, specific accounts wont benefit from it. It's there for everyone. So either the mechanic is still broken, or ppl just arnt seeing them plop on the screen. I've always been on the bad luck side of RNG, but i have never gone playing more than an hour and not found a leg/set item.
As far as I know, it's 2 hours, and after which it slowly but steadily the drop rate increases steadily until a legendary finally drops, then it resets. The mechanic merely protects one from extreme bad lucks of the RNG, which happens more often than you think, given the large player base.
ACTUALLY what blizzard said was that timer won't start kicking in until 4+ hours.
I did 5 tier 2 rifts, got 2 legendaries plus 1 off kadala. It's just RNG.
Which, I'm really starting to hate. I'd much rather things are earned than randomly distributed. That's the superior loot system of a game like WoW. Randomness has its perks, but its downside is steep as well.
I'm bored as hell with this game. It's so low on my gaming priority that I haven't played it for over a week. I get that "RNG is RNG", and I do not want legendary items handed to me like candy, even though it seems like they are to some people at this point, but I'm just done with this game for the time being. I played for hours and hours almost everyday since RoS launch and have only gotten a handful of legendary items. One was a clear upgrade, but the other few I use were side-grades at best and the rest went straight to the salvage table. The last straw for me was joining a game with my friend and he picks up 3-4 in less than half an hour and I got diddly squat. Not bashing the game, not calling for changes. I'm just bored with it and done for now.
Then take a break and come back at a later time.
I have only played for a few hours RoS since at the moment I do not have the passion to play the game. I did play quite some bit patch 2.0 in PTR and when it was live.
I will be playing RoS again at some point when I have the passion to do so.
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Since the last hotfix doing bounties is horrible and nothing ever drops.
I mean you can say random is random... but after clearing 2 to 4 act's for bounties and nothing drops, and nothing but 4 or 5 bag fulls of junk that I sell or salvage just sucks.
Before the hotfix I was average a legendary every 45min - 2hrs, now it's a legendary every 4-6hrs sometimes longer.
I've been farming bounties nonstop since the hotfix because I'm trying for the ring that comes form the cache reward from Act 1 and Act 4.
Rift's feel fine since the hotfix... but I have seen people go for 2-5 rifts and get nothing.
Plus it just feels like the rift guardian drops the forgotten souls way to often since the hotfix when they should be dropping legendary items and if we want to salvage them we can.
Oh wait the guardian already knows the legendary had junk stats so it salvaged it for you.
RNG is RNG, I went 10 rifts without a single leg then found 8 in 1 rift (2 packs of 10 gobs, figured theyd be crap as usual and then it just rained) one of which was thunderfury so just keep at it.
I'm bored as hell with this game. It's so low on my gaming priority that I haven't played it for over a week. I get that "RNG is RNG", and I do not want legendary items handed to me like candy, even though it seems like they are to some people at this point, but I'm just done with this game for the time being.
So why are you browsing/posting on a diablo 3 forum?
Anyone who has children is familiar with the experience of a screaming tantrum following by a tearful insistence that "I DIDN'T WANT IT ANYWAY!" when you take their candy away from them.
What amazes me is the standpoint that because I can't prove something, means that it doesn't exist. I wish there were a little more room for diplomacy in some of these discussions. That last sentence was not directed at Shaggy - just a general observation of many standpoints from posters about issues they don't believe in.
There is an invisible flying spaghetti monster that lives above your house. All your bad RNG fortune is due to him. You can't see him or interact with him but he's there. I can't prove that he's there but that doesn't mean he doesn't exist. Now please discuss my theory but I expect you to be only diplomatic.
I'm sorry - I won't participate in your request. We are on a forum talking about a video game. If you have theories, support, evidence and I ideas about this game, then I will be happy to discuss them with you diplomatically.
What you are trying to do seems a lot like (to me at least) to be a little disrespectful and ultimately unfair to the discussion at hand.
Again - I will be happy to discuss Diablo 3 and its content with you though. Thanks!
What amazes me is the standpoint that because I can't prove something, means that it doesn't exist. I wish there were a little more room for diplomacy in some of these discussions. That last sentence was not directed at Shaggy - just a general observation of many standpoints from posters about issues they don't believe in.
There is an invisible flying spaghetti monster that lives above your house. All your bad RNG fortune is due to him. You can't see him or interact with him but he's there. I can't prove that he's there but that doesn't mean he doesn't exist. Now please discuss my theory but I expect you to be only diplomatic.
I'm sorry - I won't participate in your request. We are on a forum talking about a video game. If you have theories, support, evidence and I ideas about this game, then I will be happy to discuss them with you diplomatically.
What you are trying to do seems a lot like (to me at least) to be a little disrespectful and ultimately unfair to the discussion at hand.
Again - I will be happy to discuss Diablo 3 and its content with you though. Thanks!
Again, in your original post, you state: "What amazes me is the standpoint that because I can't prove something, means that it doesn't exist."
At face value, there is merit to that statement. For example, it took a while to prove that the earth revolves around the sun. However, that one example does not mean we should give significant or even equal weight to all unproven theories. Every theory will have some amount of proof, and the more proof given, the more acceptable the theory. Even initially correct conjectures must gain momentum by adding evidence. There's no way to skip this step in the scientific method.
Perhaps, "proof" is too strong of a word. I don't expect proof. But you present a theory about random number generation based on anecdotal evidence and your discussions with an unnamed game developer not associated with Blizzard. To me, that's a theory with no evidence (let alone proof). Zero. None. Nada. I had a hot streak last night but I don't see that as evidence that I have good character-locked RNG. It's just that RNG went my way for a time. Same as when I play Blackjack. Sometimes I get great cards. Sometime I don't. It's random.
In the complete absence of evidence, all totally unsupported theories are equally valid. So we could continue to discuss character-locked RNG. Or we could discuss Flying Spaghetti Monster-based RNG. What would be the difference?
If we must continue this topic, please discuss how you would design an experiment to test your theory. For example, if you created 15 very different characters (different names, classes, specs), played them 1000+ hours each, and recorded in great detail noticeably different drop rates even when normalized based on difficulty setting and kill rate, you might carry a bit more weight.
Sure, RNG is RNG, but they really need to stop balancing the game around people who have 40 hours to play each week. I've been playing for a couple hours each night since RoS, but lately my luck has seemed to dry up and now even when I do get a legendary, smart loot loves to stop working and roll it with a different primary stat. The rest of the time it's some poorly rolled legendary with no fun unique effect. Maybe 1 in 20 drops is something I'd actually use and I'm lucky to get 3 in an hour.
They need some bad luck protection like WoW's justice and valor points. Nothing major, just a little perk here and there to keep you going when RNG is screwing you over but still rewarding you for the time you've invested. Shard gamlbing, with its 1 in 1000 chance to get something decent, is not the answer. Maybe a free enchant every so often. Something to make you feel like you're making even the slightest bit of improvement.
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Also the argument against his post still has not been presented. Your just claiming that his story and sources are in question because they do not have names and figures attached.
Why is it so unfathomable that blizzard wouldn't use a similar system for their game? All the boxes are checked for motive. Past experience has shown they are capable/have used such a system.
And I actually support everything that Shaggy has said. I know that these conversations took place and their evidence to me was presented. I know its true - but I do not expect everyone else to believe me. Which is why (out of respect from the "not true until you link it" threads here on the forums) I do not try to go out of my way and say that this theory is fact. I believe it and I bring it out there for other people to consider it. I'm talking shop about a game like other folks are doing. I personally get a little hot when I hear the tin foil remark, but that's okay; what you believe about me is not the issue. What may or may not be true about the design of one particular game, is what's being considered.
My brother-in-law was the lead designer for a Dungeons & Dragons game a few years back. I played it for a short while ( was addicted to WoW at the time) and obviously we spoke at length about the luck mechanic in his game as well as WoW.
I state facts here: he was not a designer for any of Blizzards games. He was a designer for another company. His game had the luck factor in it. He works in the industry and is friends with other designers of other companies that use this mechanic, just as much as the use the mechanic of the word "sword" to represent a sword in the game. Therefore I'm comfortable in speculating that it probably exists in the Diablo 3 franchise as well.
What amazes me is the standpoint that because I can't prove something, means that it doesn't exist. I wish there were a little more room for diplomacy in some of these discussions. That last sentence was not directed at Shaggy - just a general observation of many standpoints from posters about issues they don't believe in.
Monkalicious: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/profile/OptimusPrime-12194/hero/79139477
Occam's Razor. Given that it is not difficult to have a normal RNG create the behaviour people experience (in fact, if there aren't at least some people who experience this behaviour, the RNG is not working properly), the razor dictates that the simpler explanation is the better one, unless evidence proves otherwise. ie. It's not the "RNG crowd" who needs to produce evidence. It's the "conspiracy crowd".
I am with shaggy on the missing "details" myself. Given how the "prevent really bad RNG rolls" mechanic in D3 (which is actually a break from proper RNG) was misrepresented (someone please help me find the blue post on this so I get it first hand), it is not unreasonable for a similar mechanic to distort through the word of mouth into something about making certain characters "lucky".
I can claim that I know someone who works at Blizzard who says that they absolutely don't have some "luck factor" in D3. No one can disprove me because I haven't said WHO. No one would look upon me saying that with any degree of credibility.... but when it comes to some random dude verifying your theory, in your opinion it becomes the most credible statement known to man. It's really a case of someone pouring through statistics to find the one number that supports their claim while ignoring all the other numbers that contradict it.
Furthermore, just because some guy used a mechanic like this in D&D does not mean any other game developer did, or did not, use it. And that's really the whole problem with anecdotal evidence. We have people posting "I FARMED X FOR Y HOURS AND NEVER GOT Z" and we also have people posting "I GOT 17 LEGENDARIES IN FOUR HOURS." Any degree of intelligence tells us that both are anecdotes and both are probably not the experience of the average player - as one would expect with a pRNG system.
I was at a stop light and there were five other cars stopped there. All were painted grey, including mine. Therefore cars are all grey. That's what you're trying to do by saying that just because this "luck" system was used in one game that it's definitely used in all other games, and it's clearly a leap of faith and a massive gap in logic.
As has been said by others, Occam's Razor says that (all other things equal) the fewer unfounded assumptions a hypothesis makes, the better. It doesn't guarantee that more-complex explanations are incorrect, but it suggests that without certainty, the best bet is always on the least-complex answer. So you're left choosing between:
RNG
and
Nebulous luck-based system whereby the server randomly assigns good and bad luck factors to characters to somehow promote the players to play more which really amounts to nothing more than a secondary layer of RNG - you're being randomly assigned a factor that influences how much the actual RNG effects your character.
One is simple and accurately explains what's going on. The second is basically taking the first and multiplying it by itself to achieve the exact same end result. Is there really any question as to why someone would default to "RNG is RNG" in any discussion like this? Without some semblance of proof that this "luck" system exists in D3 (not in any other game) then you're simply proposing something that hinges on faith rather than explainable, tangible, and logical understanding of the situation.
Are you sure they are getting more legendaries than you do? That it isn't because the legendaries that you have gotten turned into forgotten souls, while theirs didn't?
What I am saying is that since your gear is better, most legendaries for you are crap, so they become forgotten souls without second thought, and don't even remember it. On the other hand, your friends with poor gear will be excited and talk about every single legendaries they find, which gives you the impression that they found a lot of them.
Which, I'm really starting to hate. I'd much rather things are earned than randomly distributed. That's the superior loot system of a game like WoW. Randomness has its perks, but its downside is steep as well.
I have only played for a few hours RoS since at the moment I do not have the passion to play the game. I did play quite some bit patch 2.0 in PTR and when it was live.
I will be playing RoS again at some point when I have the passion to do so.
I mean you can say random is random... but after clearing 2 to 4 act's for bounties and nothing drops, and nothing but 4 or 5 bag fulls of junk that I sell or salvage just sucks.
Before the hotfix I was average a legendary every 45min - 2hrs, now it's a legendary every 4-6hrs sometimes longer.
I've been farming bounties nonstop since the hotfix because I'm trying for the ring that comes form the cache reward from Act 1 and Act 4.
Rift's feel fine since the hotfix... but I have seen people go for 2-5 rifts and get nothing.
Plus it just feels like the rift guardian drops the forgotten souls way to often since the hotfix when they should be dropping legendary items and if we want to salvage them we can.
Oh wait the guardian already knows the legendary had junk stats so it salvaged it for you.
What you are trying to do seems a lot like (to me at least) to be a little disrespectful and ultimately unfair to the discussion at hand.
Again - I will be happy to discuss Diablo 3 and its content with you though. Thanks!
Monkalicious: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/profile/OptimusPrime-12194/hero/79139477
At face value, there is merit to that statement. For example, it took a while to prove that the earth revolves around the sun. However, that one example does not mean we should give significant or even equal weight to all unproven theories. Every theory will have some amount of proof, and the more proof given, the more acceptable the theory. Even initially correct conjectures must gain momentum by adding evidence. There's no way to skip this step in the scientific method.
Perhaps, "proof" is too strong of a word. I don't expect proof. But you present a theory about random number generation based on anecdotal evidence and your discussions with an unnamed game developer not associated with Blizzard. To me, that's a theory with no evidence (let alone proof). Zero. None. Nada. I had a hot streak last night but I don't see that as evidence that I have good character-locked RNG. It's just that RNG went my way for a time. Same as when I play Blackjack. Sometimes I get great cards. Sometime I don't. It's random.
In the complete absence of evidence, all totally unsupported theories are equally valid. So we could continue to discuss character-locked RNG. Or we could discuss Flying Spaghetti Monster-based RNG. What would be the difference?
If we must continue this topic, please discuss how you would design an experiment to test your theory. For example, if you created 15 very different characters (different names, classes, specs), played them 1000+ hours each, and recorded in great detail noticeably different drop rates even when normalized based on difficulty setting and kill rate, you might carry a bit more weight.
They need some bad luck protection like WoW's justice and valor points. Nothing major, just a little perk here and there to keep you going when RNG is screwing you over but still rewarding you for the time you've invested. Shard gamlbing, with its 1 in 1000 chance to get something decent, is not the answer. Maybe a free enchant every so often. Something to make you feel like you're making even the slightest bit of improvement.