275 Archon of Agilty later....

  • #41
    Quote from Vulmio

    Quote from asdfywea
    really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class


    Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
    my point exactly, if he wants anykind of significal data i would like to something closer to 5.000.000 (5m), even that wouldn't be such a big sample for all the RNG used here
  • #42
    So you are bitching about not getting an upgrade from crafting but you want cc+ccd gettin nerfed anyways? http://www.diablofan...hance-crit-dmg/ Why bother with an upgrade at all?

    Ive got any crafted item within a batch of like 25 or 30 crafts: http://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Shinna-2251/hero/10580467

    Im just lucky? Maybe. You are just unlucky? Who knows.

    Anyways. AFAIK not every affix has the same odds to roll. In D2 it was different for certain affixes. Not sure aout D3.
    In regards of math: http://us.battle.net...opic/7709581148
  • #43
    Quote from Shinna1989

    So you are bitching about not getting an upgrade from crafting but you want cc+ccd gettin nerfed anyways? http://www.diablofan...hance-crit-dmg/ Why bother with an upgrade at all?

    Ive got any crafted item within a batch of like 25 or 30 crafts: http://eu.battle.net...1/hero/10580467

    Im just lucky? Maybe. You are just unlucky? Who knows.

    Anyways. AFAIK not every affix has the same odds to roll. In D2 it was different for certain affixes. Not sure aout D3.
    In regards of math: http://us.battle.net...opic/7709581148


    I am not sure what that has to do with anything.... Stop grasping at straws and relying on logical fallacies to discredit me, and lets talk like educated adults.
  • #44
    The biggest problem I see with your argument is that anyone with a 'sample size' smaller than yours is not valid. My question is: once someone rolls out an 'amazing' item why would they keep crafting it? They wouldn't. So their sample size is always going to be smaller than someone who is getting unlucky in their crafting. The only way for someone to invalidate your argument is if they kept crafting an item long after they had no need to.

    Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.
  • #45
    Quote from Gensui

    The biggest problem I see with your argument is that anyone with a 'sample size' smaller than yours is not valid. My question is: once someone rolls out an 'amazing' item why would they keep crafting it? They wouldn't. So their sample size is always going to be smaller than someone who is getting unlucky in their crafting. The only way for someone to invalidate your argument is if they kept crafting an item long after they had no need to.

    Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.


    Even my sample size is too small really, but anything less is ridiculous. The real point is the stats I showed earlier. Its simply not cheaper to make an item via crafting on average. Its just not. The odds are way way against you. Thus crafting is still at best a goldsink in this game. The only diff is extremely new players can actually get some benefit out of it, not much, but some.
  • #46
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Quote from Gensui

    The biggest problem I see with your argument is that anyone with a 'sample size' smaller than yours is not valid. My question is: once someone rolls out an 'amazing' item why would they keep crafting it? They wouldn't. So their sample size is always going to be smaller than someone who is getting unlucky in their crafting. The only way for someone to invalidate your argument is if they kept crafting an item long after they had no need to.

    Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.


    Even my sample size is too small really, but anything less is ridiculous. The real point is the stats I showed earlier. Its simply not cheaper to make an item via crafting on average. Its just not. The odds are way way against you. Thus crafting is still at best a goldsink in this game. The only diff is extremely new players can actually get some benefit out of it, not much, but some.


    So if you want to play the AH game then don't use crafting. It's pretty simple.

    I don't love going to the AH all the time, therefore I think crafting is EXCELLENT. Crafting was also an obvious nod to self-found people, and the existence of crafting in and of itself has caused the market (specifically shoulders, bracers, gloves, and chests - amulets less so) to completely tank.

    If this crafting didn't exist you'd never see those gloves for 10 million so it's a combination of multiple factors. It's not simply "AH is cheaper than crafting" because the main reason the AH prices fell so much is because of crafting. So even if you're not crafting you are still benefitting a lot from the effects it has on the economy.
    p450 :: 92.2k EK :: 2.54m TK
    Planet Express <PlanEx>
    (V) (°,,°) (V)
  • #47
    Quote from asdfywea

    Quote from Vulmio

    Quote from asdfywea
    really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class


    Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
    my point exactly, if he wants anykind of significal data i would like to something closer to 5.000.000 (5m), even that wouldn't be such a big sample for all the RNG used here


    And therefore you miss my point : no one will ever make 5m crafts, so asking for relevant sample size is useless. What does matter is the enjoyment provided by the game to one 1 and each single unique individual (sorry I couldn't find an other term meaning just one) player and not the average fun of millions of players. Unless you mean it's fine if a few hundreds of people can't get anything good (statistically) as long has the other million has something decent or great ?
  • #48
    Quote from Vulmio

    Quote from asdfywea

    Quote from Vulmio

    Quote from asdfywea
    really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class


    Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
    my point exactly, if he wants anykind of significal data i would like to something closer to 5.000.000 (5m), even that wouldn't be such a big sample for all the RNG used here


    And therefore you miss my point : no one will ever make 5m crafts, so asking for relevant sample size is useless. What does matter is the enjoyment provided by the game to one 1 and each single unique individual (sorry I couldn't find an other term meaning just one) player and not the average fun of millions of players. Unless you mean it's fine if a few hundreds of people can't get anything good (statistically) as long has the other million has something decent or great ?


    Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.
    Blizzard Entertainment - Diablo III Community MVP
  • #49
    Quote from Jaetch

    Quote from Vulmio

    Quote from asdfywea

    Quote from Vulmio

    Quote from asdfywea
    really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class


    Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
    my point exactly, if he wants anykind of significal data i would like to something closer to 5.000.000 (5m), even that wouldn't be such a big sample for all the RNG used here


    And therefore you miss my point : no one will ever make 5m crafts, so asking for relevant sample size is useless. What does matter is the enjoyment provided by the game to one 1 and each single unique individual (sorry I couldn't find an other term meaning just one) player and not the average fun of millions of players. Unless you mean it's fine if a few hundreds of people can't get anything good (statistically) as long has the other million has something decent or great ?


    Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.


    Casinos games are designed the way they are because their creators chose how much RNG they wanted in their games. They designed roulette with 37 numbers and two colors, because it is balanced the way casinos like : in favor enough of the casino to win money and giving the player enough chances to win to make him play. If the roulette had 10 or 1000 pockets with 1 or 10 colors, the roulette would still be RNG but balanced in a different way.

    This is what I'm trying to explain, you can have a game completely about RNG but you can balance it the way you want to. This is why saying : RNG is RNG doesn't make sense if you don't show the game is balanced properly. If you show it is, then you can say : "Sorry, you had bad luck".
  • #50
    I like crafting, because it just give me another motivation to play.. For upgrade i need like 150m+ and with crafting i could be lucky for much less, or i will just keep trying :) anyway i do my 30-100 crafts a day without my cash being hurted. So i can enjoy my normal farming plus as a bonus i got essences where i can get lucky, i just love that... :)

    Anyway crafting is not for everybody.. I think its mainly for newbies (who needs almost everythin to get upgraded) or nicely geared ppl(who can upgrade just for huge amounts)

    Edit: for u, maybe its not worth crafting... For me and a lot of others it is.. It highly depends on playstyle, financial situation, ur gear lvl and many other factors (like RNG :)
  • #51
    OP: You think a sample size of 275 crafts is reliable, with rng in mind and comparable to items that are being sold on AH already? Personally I don't care which is "Best", I am just happy I'm playing the game instead of AH.
  • #52
    Just so you guys know you wouldn't need sample sizes in the millions that is absurd. There are only 5 affixes that are being rolled out of like 30 ish possible affixes. All you would have to do is make enough to get a good rough estimate of the % chance for each affix. If you wanted the % chance of a high affix that would take even more time.

    However, even that is rather pointless as the odds are so absurd that the good stats such as CD would have to be far far far more likely to roll than bad stats for this whole thing to be worthwhile. I seriously doubt that is the case from what I have seen.
  • #53
    That'd be 5/30*4/29*3/28*2/27*1/26th then.
    Better odds than for a royal flush.
    In Poker there are 52 cards in a deck and you need 5 cards. A reliable sample size is millions of hands. So really, 275 rolls enough?
  • #54
    Btw i already crafted some decent items (and all my friends too) and im 100% sure i can craft better, so i will just keep trying :) soon or later it will come :D and im enjoyin this rather than playin AH
  • #55
    If this entire thread was TLDR for anyone joining late:

    If you have good gear (note: good is very subjective, but let's say you can farm mp3 better then you can mp0) then getting an upgrade with these new crafts is hard!

    I'm still farming mp0 best, so it took me 1 amulet, 4 chest, 10 shoulders, 15 gloves to get the stuff I'm using atm. Also have an extra glove and shoulder for when I'm not needing pickup radius ^^

    Those 30 crafts replaced gear worth roughly 1m in total (HC), and gave me gear worth maybe 20m total? So a good deal for someone like me.

    If you play on the US softcore side and see gloves with wicked good stats for 10m... (compared those gloves with HC ah, I just got the result "Not found" hehe) well maybe you should buy those instead of gambling it all on crafts.

    P.S. Just for fun, I checked the HC ah for the top 10 most expensive gloves on it (not counting stuff put up just for funny high prices) those gloves that you crafted beat all of them dps wise, and the cheapest ones were 225m ^^

    Edit: Typo on what my craft were worth ^^;
    Winter is coming...
  • #56
    Quote from Jaetch

    Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.


    Are you saying D3 is trying to screw us out of our money?
    Because if not, then it's a bad analogy (and I think you know it :P)
    Not that I necessarily agree with the OP, though.
  • #57
    Quote from maka

    Quote from Jaetch

    Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.


    Are you saying D3 is trying to screw us out of our money?
    Because if not, then it's a bad analogy (and I think you know it :P)
    Not that I necessarily agree with the OP, though.


    Well, yeah, I don't think Blizzard is trying to screw us out of our money. But the concept of gambling is there for the crafting system and you really can't believe that you're guaranteed to get something out of X attempts.
    Blizzard Entertainment - Diablo III Community MVP
  • #58
    I need to scratch my gambling itch.
  • #59
    Quote from Kamisei2400

    That'd be 5/30*4/29*3/28*2/27*1/26th then.
    Better odds than for a royal flush.
    In Poker there are 52 cards in a deck and you need 5 cards. A reliable sample size is millions of hands. So really, 275 rolls enough?


    If your objective was to get a royal flush, but like I said, all you need to know is the probability of the affixes. Its easy to calculate the probability of a royal flush without ever playing the game... The sampling is to determine the probability of affixes. In cards you know that they are all equal.
  • #60
    Quote from Nausicaa

    If this entire thread was TLDR for anyone joining late:

    If you have good gear (note: good is very subjective, but let's say you can farm mp3 better then you can mp0) then getting an upgrade with these new crafts is hard!


    Thanks, perfect summary. And as a reminder: exactly this was also said by the devs. As well as the fact that crafting is mainly for self-found players and high-end players who're searching for BiS upgrades.
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