275 Archon of Agilty later....

  • #21
    Quote from morbidlymystic


    I think my sample size was sufficiently large enough to make my evidence anything but anecdotal sir. Also as I pointed out before, an item from the AH can be sold back on the AH recuperating almost all cost. Even if you bought a 2B pair of gloves...

    Crafting is a waste of gold and time.

    Youre not even close to anything that may be called a proper sample size...

    Out of the ~300 legendaries I found around 15 were andariels', that still doesn't mean that everyone has a 5% rate of andariels' looted...

    even better example:
    out of the 300 legendaries, around 290 were total crap or crappy rolls. but still you cant say that its not worth picking them up. also you cant say that everybody experiences a 3,33% chance to get a decently rolled legendary


    we may talk again after you crafted 275000 gloves and you still didnt get a nice pair. but then still you will be told to craft at least 4 times as much for being able to talk about proper sample sizes. you will still have tons of people posting their godlike items they got after 10 crafts or whatever and they were just as lucky as you were unlucky.

    if it isnt for you then dont do it ( that point can simply be made in every topic and it always wins...)

    for me it is i nice gamble to craft 10 to 20 gloves or amus every few days since i am at a point where upgrades are far from affordable to me, nice little goldsink and every now and then my alts receive an upgrade as well. so it works exactly the way blizz intended it to work.
  • #22
    Quote from Temsen

    I crafted ~30 amulets and I got lucky with this one http://d3up.com/i/5430753 all others were either utter trash or put on a follower because they had vit and mf. I agree with your conclusion, though, I see so many awesome rolls posted here, but I don't even want to know just how many shit rolls happened in the process.
    However, the chance to actually get something good is at least way better than from a normal rare, with the guaranteed mainstat+5 affixes.

    Side question: you playing US? Checked EU AH and the closest one to those gloves had 5cd less and 2 dex more but cost 25m, I'd gladly buy those for 10m, lol.

    US. Probably a bit on the cheap side, as the next one above was slightly worse and like 12m.

    Quote from Kung

    for me it is i nice gamble to craft 10 to 20 gloves or amus every few days since i am at a point where upgrades are far from affordable to me, nice little goldsink and every now and then my alts receive an upgrade as well. so it works exactly the way blizz intended it to work.
    The thing is you would probably have the money for upgrades if you weren't using the gold sink.

    Funny thing is, if everyone is getting all these AMAZING upgrades from crafting, then how come their previous rare items flooding the AH? If the system works as many says it does, then it should be easy for you to get an upgrade quite cheap.


    IMO get marginal upgrades from AH using bids or low buyouts or whatever, and then you sell your previous item at a profit. Thats what I have been doing thus far anyways, and it works quite well.
  • #23
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I just made 14 Dex Amulets for shits and giggles, and same result. Worthless shit, most of which 11/14 was inferior (DPS wise) to my MF neck which I use only because it has stupid amounts of life on it... None even came close to my real dps neck which was a good 10k dps ahead.
    So you've been pointing out the flaw of sample size but want to pretend that 14 crafts is suddenly a valid sample size. 14 crafts is obviously a drop in the bucket, and it's impossible to tell whether 300 is a valid sample size or not without knowing all the possible results and the value you would put on those results.
  • #24
    First of all, crafting is gambling. You are rolling 5 random stats out of 30(?). Each of those stats have values, some can have even 70 different ones. Think about your chances for a while.
    Secondly, your sample size is minuscule, like was pointed out by others.

    You have gotten some replies with great explanations and analogies, but you either ignore them or fail to understand them.
  • #25
    Quote from phuzi0n

    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I just made 14 Dex Amulets for shits and giggles, and same result. Worthless shit, most of which 11/14 was inferior (DPS wise) to my MF neck which I use only because it has stupid amounts of life on it... None even came close to my real dps neck which was a good 10k dps ahead.
    So you've been pointing out the flaw of sample size but want to pretend that 14 crafts is suddenly a valid sample size. 14 crafts is obviously a drop in the bucket, and it's impossible to tell whether 300 is a valid sample size or not without knowing all the possible results and the value you would put on those results.

    I never said that was a viable sample size... I just mentioned it.
    Quit grasping at straws...

    You could even technically roll it into the gloves crafts. Not like it matters much, they aren't all that different.

    Quote from Turtel

    First of all, crafting is gambling. You are rolling 5 random stats out of 30(?). Each of those stats have values, some can have even 70 different ones. Think about your chances for a while.
    Secondly, your sample size is minuscule, like was pointed out by others.

    You have gotten some replies with great explanations and analogies, but you either ignore them or fail to understand them.
    I fail to understand nothing. I just hear a bunch of delusional thoughts without any real evidence to back any of it up. Nothing but anecdotal evidence of I got this or I know a guy that got that, etc... You always hear from the people who won, and rarely from the majority.

    You say my sample size is small, so where is yours? Yah, thats what I thought.
  • #26
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I fail to understand nothing. I just hear a bunch of delusional thoughts without any real evidence to back any of it up. Nothing but anecdotal evidence of I got this or I know a guy that got that, etc... You always hear from the people who won, and rarely from the majority.

    You say my sample size is small, so where is yours? Yah, thats what I thought.

    I wasn't talking about the people who are showing off their crafts. I was trying to tell you that you are angry, because you lost a gamble with low chances to win. Read what i wrote again, wasn't i clear? Your chances are miserable, if your current item is already 'good'.

    I'm not sure what does that last sentence mean. I don't need to talk about my sample size, its not sufficient. I've only crafted about 300 shoulders and 60 amulets so far.
  • #27
    I got lucky with my amulet after about 60 or 70 crafts. Mind you the farming of essences was mind numbing, but meh, it sure beat what I had on before. Not that my sample size is worth the pixels I'm using, but there ya go. The general gist of this all is that you can get either really lucky, uber lucky (as in only a few crafts and you're set), or just plain dumped on for eternity.

    Crafting simply opens up another avenue on top of your ability to find drops (limited though that is). The main problem is the gold cost. It's a bit out of whack unless you buy gold from the RMAH, which most soloers don't exactly relish doing.
  • #28
    Ok, lets do some math.


    There are like 31 stats, but only a handful are any good.


    Best Stats
    Mainstat + Vit
    Crit chance
    Crit damage
    IAS
    Average damage
    Vitality


    I primarily want an offensive amulet. I can stutter step and what not to avoid dmg, so thats not a problem for me.

    The probability of getting an item with all 5 of the other stats is,
    (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27)*(2/26) = 1 in 23,751

    An item with 4 good stats,
    (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27) = 1 in 1827

    An item with 3 good stats,
    (5/30)*(4/29)*(3/28) = 1 in 203

    These are just figures from rolling the stats, the game rolls again to determine what magnitude the stat is.



    It costs about 200,000 to make a single Dex Amulet.


    The cost to get a 5 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 23,751 = 4.75 billion

    The cost to get a 4 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 1827 = 365.4 million

    The cost to get a 3 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 203 = 40.6 million


    Wow... did I make some kind of statistics mistake?!? WTF! This is even worse than I thought.
    EDIT: This does assume the probabilities are the same, which they almost certainly arent, but I don't have that data. I am guessing things like Crit% actually has a higher roll % to offset these terrible numbers.
  • #29
    I crafted a trifecta glove on my very first try and nothing has come close ever since :D
    Blizzard Entertainment - Diablo III Community MVP
  • #30
    The mistake you made (atleast the one i noticed ) is that amulets have more affixes, i think its 39, but not sure. BUT some affixes are exclusive. If 1 double stat rolls, the other 3 can't. Same goes for single resistance.

    Since you didn't even factor in the minimum values you are aiming for, the final numbers are going to be ridiculous.

    This is what i was trying to tell you before ;)
    Its a huge gamble. Just 1 thing that bothers me a little is that you make it look like after the calculated amount of crafts you should get the item. Be reminded, that it can roll on 1st try and also never.

    Secondly (and this is aimed mostly at other people so they don't feel discouraged that much), those are the odds for exact pure dps items. Stats like vit, life%, resists, armor etc... ppl are happy with that as long as they don't lose dps. There are many players who are happy with just 2 good dps stats and rest defensive or MF etc.


    edit: Also, the samples from other people don't matter. It's all just luck. The only thing that matters is how many crafts you personally make, to increase your chances.
  • #31
    Quote from Jaetch

    I crafted a trifecta glove on my very first try and nothing has come close ever since :D
    So why aren't you wearing it?
    Lets see it, please.
    "It's hard to kill a man once you've seen pictures of his kids"
  • #32
    The probabilities of affixes aren't evenly distributed. The quality of the affixes aren't evenly distributed either.
    https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0gMgiAJ3WsmN3lJWVFfVnJlVTQ/edit?usp=sharing

    Some of the data is a bit out of date since these were tested back in 1.0.6 and the first PTR iteration.
  • #33
    Quote from oldmannoob

    Quote from Jaetch

    I crafted a trifecta glove on my very first try and nothing has come close ever since :D
    So why aren't you wearing it?
    Lets see it, please.
    He is wearing it and it's from the old recipe with even lower chances of rolling well.
  • #34
    In support a bit of Morbidlymystic and with the hopes of helping people not continue to argue that he does/does not have the right to be frustrated about his success with the new "crafting"...

    Adjust your mindset to change the word "crafting" to "gambling" and it should make a lot more sense. They haven't introduced crafting, they have introduced gambling. Gambling with the control of picking the "powerball number". The other numbers are called "good luck".
  • #35
    Quote from oldmannoob

    Quote from Jaetch

    I crafted a trifecta glove on my very first try and nothing has come close ever since :D
    So why aren't you wearing it?
    Lets see it, please.



    That's why I'm not wearing it.

    And as for OP, it doesn't matter if it takes 5 tries or 5,000 tries. The next craft will still have the same chance of rolling an absolutely crappy item or an absolutely godly item. It's all luck. Some people get lucky, some people have to wait their turn. You can't measure that. Just accept what you got and either give up on crafting or simply move onto the next one.
    Blizzard Entertainment - Diablo III Community MVP
  • #36
    Yay people are going to start buying gloves at the AH again <3
  • #37
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Quote from shaggy

    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Quote from GangusKahn

    Hmmm...

    Got shoulders better than both can build VIle Wards I had for my WD/Monk. Rolled considerably better bracers than the can build Lacuni and even put a set of Innas Pants on my WD to cover move speed and still come out ahead.

    23 million gold and you havent got a thing. Sorry but thats not a whole lot of gold and Im far from rich. As for that price of the gloves on the AH. You do realize that glove was 10 mil because crafting tanked the market on gloves.

    Illusion...nope very possible and still cheaper than buying on the AH..imho of course.

    This is the type of mentality that propagates the myth. A sack of lies about how awesome crafting is because you got these amazing items without even trying... Assuming this was even true, then you just got lucky.

    You always see threads about the awesome gear some people get, but you never see the threads about the amazingly shitty gear people get.

    I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use. The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.

    So other peoples anecdotal evidence are lies.

    But your anecdotal evidence is proof that the system is broke.

    Please stop posting.

    I think my sample size was sufficiently large enough to make my evidence anything but anecdotal sir. Also as I pointed out before, an item from the AH can be sold back on the AH recuperating almost all cost. Even if you bought a 2B pair of gloves...

    Crafting is a waste of gold and time.
    really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class
  • #38
    Quote from asdfywea
    really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class

    Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
  • #39
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Ok, lets do some math.


    There are like 31 stats, but only a handful are any good.


    Best Stats
    Mainstat + Vit
    Crit chance
    Crit damage
    IAS
    Average damage
    Vitality


    I primarily want an offensive amulet. I can stutter step and what not to avoid dmg, so thats not a problem for me.

    The probability of getting an item with all 5 of the other stats is,
    (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27)*(2/26) = 1 in 23,751

    An item with 4 good stats,
    (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27) = 1 in 1827

    An item with 3 good stats,
    (5/30)*(4/29)*(3/28) = 1 in 203

    These are just figures from rolling the stats, the game rolls again to determine what magnitude the stat is.



    It costs about 200,000 to make a single Dex Amulet.


    The cost to get a 5 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 23,751 = 4.75 billion

    The cost to get a 4 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 1827 = 365.4 million

    The cost to get a 3 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 203 = 40.6 million


    Wow... did I make some kind of statistics mistake?!? WTF! This is even worse than I thought.
    EDIT: This does assume the probabilities are the same, which they almost certainly arent, but I don't have that data. I am guessing things like Crit% actually has a higher roll % to offset these terrible numbers.

    my interpretation of the numbers is as follows:

    affixpool: 30
    random affixes on item: 5
    and i want 3 good affixes, no more no less (total good affixes: 6)

    the order in which the affixes role doesnt matter and therefore are the odds to get a good item better

    P(x) = (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(24/27)*(23/26)+(6/30)*(5/29)*(24/28)*(4/27)*(23/26)+(6/30)*(5/29)*(24/28)*(23/27)*(4/26)+(6/30)*(24/29)*(5/28)*(4/27)*(23/26)+(6/30)*(24/29)*(5/28)*(23/27)*(4/26)+(6/30)*(24/29)*(23/28)*(5/27)*(4/26)+(24/30)*(6/29)*(5/28)*(4/27)*(23/26)+(24/30)*(6/29)*(5/28)*(23/27)*(4/26)+(24/30)*(6/29)*(23/28)*(5/27)*(4/26)+(24/30)*(23/29)*(6/28)*(5/27)*(4/26) = 0,038

    so i have a 4% chance to get exactly 3 desired affixes (not more or less). The chance is even bigger if we count the items with 3+ desired affixes

    everything above doesnt factor in how affixes are allocated on items in D3 or the exact affixpool
    My opinion on sample size:

    it depends on the odds... if u have odds of 1 in 2... a sample size of 100 will most likely get the job done 99,99% but if the odds are 1 in 2000, a sample size of 100 would be to little.
  • #40
    It all comes down to wether or not you like to browse the AH for upgrades or if you would value something you find/craft higher simply because it is "only yours".

    I can't get a lot of upgrades from the AH (I can, but most are in the 500m-1b range and I end up giving money to my friends or I sell gold on RMAH instead of saving up a lot) so I craft a considerable amount of amulets each day. I think I'm getting close to 500 crafts now. I had a terrible amulet to start with, so I actually got an upgrade a week ago. The same dps, but I gained 11k hp. Not a fantastic amulet, but still good.

    Will that stop me from crafting more? No, ofc not. It's fun to hunt down emeralds, demonic essences and tomes and I know I'll get a trifecta or even quadfecta at some point. Then I'll start crafting bracers or something else.

    Crafting is awesome.
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