275 Archon of Agilty later....

  • #1
    And I still have absolute diddly shit to show for it.

    20 * Iridecent tear = 30,000 gold
    5 tomes = 6500 gold
    50,000 gold crafting cost
    TOTAL: 86500 gold per glove

    275 * 86500 = 23,787,500 gold

    Thats what I have wasted thus far, and what do I have to show for it?

    241 Dex
    8.5% crit
    41% crit dmg

    On the AH right now, not even shopping around.

    241 Dex
    10% crit
    44% CD

    10 million gold, and I can sell it back when I get an upgrade, thus recuperating most if not all of the cost. In fact, I buy most of my gear with bids for much lower than the current AH price, and actually sell them back for a profit.




    Ok, lets do some math.

    There are like 31 stats, but only a handful are any good.


    Best Stats
    Mainstat + Vit
    Crit chance
    Crit damage
    IAS
    Average damage
    Vitality


    I primarily want an offensive amulet. I can stutter step and what not to avoid dmg, so thats not a problem for me.

    The probability of getting an item with all 5 of the other stats is,
    (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27)*(2/26) = 1 in 23,751

    An item with 4 good stats,
    (6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27) = 1 in 1827

    An item with 3 good stats,
    (5/30)*(4/29)*(3/28) = 1 in 203

    These are just figures from rolling the stats, the game rolls again to determine what magnitude the stat is.



    It costs about 200,000 to make a single Dex Amulet.


    The cost to get a 5 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 23,751 = 4.75 billion

    The cost to get a 4 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 1827 = 365.4 million

    The cost to get a 3 stat amulet,
    200,000 * 203 = 40.6 million


    Wow... did I make some kind of statistics mistake?!? WTF! This is even worse than I thought.
    EDIT: This does assume the probabilities are the same, which they almost certainly arent, but I don't have that data. I am guessing things like Crit% actually has a higher roll % to offset these terrible numbers.



    I have come to the conclusion that rolling anything good is near impossible, but there are so many people crafting so many items that it happens often enough to give people the illusion that its worth doing. Bravo Blizz Bravo.
  • #2
    Hmmm...

    Got shoulders better than both can build VIle Wards I had for my WD/Monk. Rolled considerably better bracers than the can build Lacuni and even put a set of Innas Pants on my WD to cover move speed and still come out ahead.

    23 million gold and you havent got a thing. Sorry but thats not a whole lot of gold and Im far from rich. As for that price of the gloves on the AH. You do realize that glove was 10 mil because crafting tanked the market on gloves.

    Illusion...nope very possible and still cheaper than buying on the AH..imho of course.
  • #3
    It's really useful for those who just started the game recently,
    or those who like to play "without ah challenge".

    so craft one and the item is most likely going to replace old ones found as drop.
  • #4
    Quote from GangusKahn

    Hmmm...

    Got shoulders better than both can build VIle Wards I had for my WD/Monk. Rolled considerably better bracers than the can build Lacuni and even put a set of Innas Pants on my WD to cover move speed and still come out ahead.

    23 million gold and you havent got a thing. Sorry but thats not a whole lot of gold and Im far from rich. As for that price of the gloves on the AH. You do realize that glove was 10 mil because crafting tanked the market on gloves.

    Illusion...nope very possible and still cheaper than buying on the AH..imho of course.


    This is the type of mentality that propagates the myth. A sack of lies about how awesome crafting is because you got these amazing items without even trying... Assuming this was even true, then you just got lucky.

    You always see threads about the awesome gear some people get, but you never see the threads about the amazingly shitty gear people get.

    I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use (Mediocre gloves with MF). The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.
  • #5
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Quote from GangusKahn

    Hmmm...

    Got shoulders better than both can build VIle Wards I had for my WD/Monk. Rolled considerably better bracers than the can build Lacuni and even put a set of Innas Pants on my WD to cover move speed and still come out ahead.

    23 million gold and you havent got a thing. Sorry but thats not a whole lot of gold and Im far from rich. As for that price of the gloves on the AH. You do realize that glove was 10 mil because crafting tanked the market on gloves.

    Illusion...nope very possible and still cheaper than buying on the AH..imho of course.


    This is the type of mentality that propagates the myth. A sack of lies about how awesome crafting is because you got these amazing items without even trying... Assuming this was even true, then you just got lucky.

    You always see threads about the awesome gear some people get, but you never see the threads about the amazingly shitty gear people get.

    I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use. The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.


    So other peoples anecdotal evidence are lies.

    But your anecdotal evidence is proof that the system is broke.

    Please stop posting.
    66.0k elite kills :: 1.97m total kills :: p244
    Planet Express <PlanEx>
    (V) (°,,°) (V)
  • #6
    Quote from shaggy

    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Quote from GangusKahn

    Hmmm...

    Got shoulders better than both can build VIle Wards I had for my WD/Monk. Rolled considerably better bracers than the can build Lacuni and even put a set of Innas Pants on my WD to cover move speed and still come out ahead.

    23 million gold and you havent got a thing. Sorry but thats not a whole lot of gold and Im far from rich. As for that price of the gloves on the AH. You do realize that glove was 10 mil because crafting tanked the market on gloves.

    Illusion...nope very possible and still cheaper than buying on the AH..imho of course.


    This is the type of mentality that propagates the myth. A sack of lies about how awesome crafting is because you got these amazing items without even trying... Assuming this was even true, then you just got lucky.

    You always see threads about the awesome gear some people get, but you never see the threads about the amazingly shitty gear people get.

    I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use. The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.


    So other peoples anecdotal evidence are lies.

    But your anecdotal evidence is proof that the system is broke.

    Please stop posting.


    I think my sample size was sufficiently large enough to make my evidence anything but anecdotal sir. Also as I pointed out before, an item from the AH can be sold back on the AH recuperating almost all cost. Even if you bought a 2B pair of gloves...

    Crafting is a waste of gold and time.
  • #7
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use (Mediocre gloves with MF). The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.


    Your gloves are mediocre but give you more than 20k dps? What are good gloves? What are great ones?
  • #8
    Quote from overneathe

    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use (Mediocre gloves with MF). The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.


    Your gloves are mediocre but give you more than 20k dps? What are good gloves? What are great ones?


    That doesn't mean the gloves I have are awesome, that just goes to show you how bad the ones I crafted were.

    Current MF Gloves
    195 Dex
    7% CC
    33% CD
    17% MF

    Dex is only 195/300, CD is only 33/50, CC is only 7/10, and there is no attack speed at all. These are mediocre gloves that I think I got on AH for a few thousand.

    EDIT: Just looked on AH and a similar pair without MF can be bought for only 350k.
  • #9
    Well I've had about 5-6 crafts of gloves out of about 40 or 50 that are at least slightly better than yours. Anecdotal indeed.
  • #10
    Aight got pretty lucky on my gloves 4th craft got current amulet on the 11th ish craft im over 100 now on amulet trying to get a trifecta at least.

    Bottom line rng is rng some will get lucky some will get SUPER lucky and others will get owned repeatedly.

    http://i.imgur.com/JnTtryT.jpg

    http://i.imgur.com/8enj0nh.jpg
  • #11
    Quote from overneathe

    Well I've had about 5-6 crafts of gloves out of about 40 or 50 that are at least slightly better than yours. Anecdotal indeed.
    Yah and Jesus is coming back too...


    RNG is overcome by sample size. Thats the whole foundation of stats.
  • #12
    My sample size says 1 out of 10 crafts is better than what you have equipped.
  • #13
    Guess what, crafting is a gamble and that hasn't changed. The only difference is that these BoA's have much better odds of being decent than before. If you have good gear then it will still take forever to find an upgrade but if you don't then it's pretty easy.

    You're crafting dex gloves but gloves already have a high dex affix so instead of gaining 130 you're only gaining 30 at most. I wanted to replace my vileward but shoulders already roll high str so I crafted vit ones instead. I gained ~200 more vit and 0.1% dmg reduction but lost 10-20 str after ~1.5m worth of crafts and got some upgrades for alts I never play too, it was well worth it. I also crafted str necks and got a huge upgrade worth ~100m if it weren't BoA after sinking ~5m but haven't gotten anything better after another ~15m. I'm not going to touch any of the other slots because the risk vs reward for them doesn't seem worth it for my barb but for other classes they may be.
  • #14
    Quote from overneathe

    My sample size says 1 out of 10 crafts is better than what you have equipped.

    You sample size is 1/6 of mine...so yah....

    Also, I am only looking at DPS stats.
  • #15
    Within 25 rolls I had gloves that beat my 75 million gold ones and shoulders better than a set I sold for 240 million... Sounds like you are not paying enough love to the RNG gods! lol
    "There is no cow level!"
  • #16
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I think my sample size was sufficiently large enough to make my evidence anything but anecdotal sir. Also as I pointed out before, an item from the AH can be sold back on the AH recuperating almost all cost. Even if you bought a 2B pair of gloves...

    Crafting is a waste of gold and time.


    No, your sample size is actually dogshit. It seems really important to you, but across the entire D3 community it's a goddamned drop in the bucket.

    Let's say there are 2 million people who have crafted gloves since 1.0.7 and they've averaged 25 crafts per person.

    That is 50 million pairs of gloves crafted since 1.0.7. Your 275 crafts, lucky, unlucky, or average, represent .00055% of all the gloves crafted. Your personal experience can, very well, be a statistical outlier since, even though you feel you've crafted a ton of gloves, it's still a very small portion of the actual sample. You may have crafted 13x what the average person has crafted, but you're still a very small portion of all the gloves crafted.

    Your conclusion basically amounts to "if I buy 13x more lottery tickets than the average person then it's impossible for anyone who has bought less tickets for me to win." Great, you bought 13 tickets, and the average person bought 1 ticket.... but 50 million people bought tickets, so it's still statisticly unlikely that you're going to win.

    As an even better example, I have NEVER found a 1h weapon with 1000+ DPS. Never. I've IDd over 15,000 1h weapons, easily. My "sample size" seems huge to me, but compared to the number of 1h weapons the D3 community, collectively, has IDd, it doesn't even register. I can't come to the conclusion that 1000+ DPS weapons don't exist, no matter how many weapons I've IDd. It's an irrational conclusion based on an improper understanding of statistics.
    66.0k elite kills :: 1.97m total kills :: p244
    Planet Express <PlanEx>
    (V) (°,,°) (V)
  • #17
    Quote from shaggy

    Quote from morbidlymystic

    I think my sample size was sufficiently large enough to make my evidence anything but anecdotal sir. Also as I pointed out before, an item from the AH can be sold back on the AH recuperating almost all cost. Even if you bought a 2B pair of gloves...

    Crafting is a waste of gold and time.


    No, your sample size is actually dogshit. It seems really important to you, but across the entire D3 community it's a goddamned drop in the bucket.

    Let's say there are 2 million people who have crafted gloves since 1.0.7 and they've averaged 25 crafts per person.

    That is 50 million pairs of gloves crafted since 1.0.7. Your 275 crafts, lucky, unlucky, or average, represent .00055% of all the gloves crafted. Your personal experience can, very well, be a statistical outlier since, even though you feel you've crafted a ton of gloves, it's still a very small portion of the actual sample.

    You may have crafted 13x what the average person has crafted, but you're still a very small portion of all the gloves crafted. It is still extremely possible for your data to be a statistical outlier because your sample size is still amazingly insignificant versus the total number of items crafted.

    As an even better example, I have NEVER found a 1h weapon with 1000+ DPS. Never. I've IDd over 15,000 1h weapons, easily. My "sample size" seems huge to me, but compared to the number of 1h weapons the D3 community, collectively, has IDd, it doesn't even register. I can't come to the conclusion that 1000+ DPS weapons don't exist, no matter how many weapons I've IDd. It's an irrational conclusion based on an improper understanding of statistics.


    The population is not the D3 community, nor has anything to do with it.... So you are telling me its dogshit, but you clearly don't understand anything about it.

    You sound like one of those guys that won a few bucks on a scratch off ticket, so you just keep buying them forever. However, at the end you spend 100s of times more than you ever made, even including your one big win.

    People remember the one time they win, not the thousands they lose. Thats why when you go into a Casino their are lots of sounds and lights that flash when people win. They want other people to hear and see them, so they think they can win too.
  • #18
    I just made 14 Dex Amulets for shits and giggles, and same result. Worthless shit, most of which 11/14 was inferior (DPS wise) to my MF neck which I use only because it has stupid amounts of life on it... None even came close to my real dps neck which was a good 10k dps ahead.
  • #19
    Quote from morbidlymystic

    Also, I am only looking at DPS stats.


    If thats the case than at least 25% of my crafts are better than what I got on now.

    But Im propoganda according to you. Guess it just sucks to be you.
  • #20
    I crafted ~30 amulets and I got lucky with this one http://d3up.com/i/5430753 all others were either utter trash or put on a follower because they had vit and mf. I agree with your conclusion, though, I see so many awesome rolls posted here, but I don't even want to know just how many shit rolls happened in the process.
    However, the chance to actually get something good is at least way better than from a normal rare, with the guaranteed mainstat+5 affixes.

    Side question: you playing US? Checked EU AH and the closest one to those gloves had 5cd less and 2 dex more but cost 25m, I'd gladly buy those for 10m, lol.
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