I just made 14 Dex Amulets for shits and giggles, and same result. Worthless shit, most of which 11/14 was inferior (DPS wise) to my MF neck which I use only because it has stupid amounts of life on it... None even came close to my real dps neck which was a good 10k dps ahead.
So you've been pointing out the flaw of sample size but want to pretend that 14 crafts is suddenly a valid sample size. 14 crafts is obviously a drop in the bucket, and it's impossible to tell whether 300 is a valid sample size or not without knowing all the possible results and the value you would put on those results.
I never said that was a viable sample size... I just mentioned it.
Quit grasping at straws...
You could even technically roll it into the gloves crafts. Not like it matters much, they aren't all that different.
First of all, crafting is gambling. You are rolling 5 random stats out of 30(?). Each of those stats have values, some can have even 70 different ones. Think about your chances for a while.
Secondly, your sample size is minuscule, like was pointed out by others.
You have gotten some replies with great explanations and analogies, but you either ignore them or fail to understand them.
I fail to understand nothing. I just hear a bunch of delusional thoughts without any real evidence to back any of it up. Nothing but anecdotal evidence of I got this or I know a guy that got that, etc... You always hear from the people who won, and rarely from the majority.
You say my sample size is small, so where is yours? Yah, thats what I thought.
I got lucky with my amulet after about 60 or 70 crafts. Mind you the farming of essences was mind numbing, but meh, it sure beat what I had on before. Not that my sample size is worth the pixels I'm using, but there ya go. The general gist of this all is that you can get either really lucky, uber lucky (as in only a few crafts and you're set), or just plain dumped on for eternity.
Crafting simply opens up another avenue on top of your ability to find drops (limited though that is). The main problem is the gold cost. It's a bit out of whack unless you buy gold from the RMAH, which most soloers don't exactly relish doing.
There are like 31 stats, but only a handful are any good.
Best Stats
Mainstat + Vit
Crit chance
Crit damage
IAS
Average damage
Vitality
I primarily want an offensive amulet. I can stutter step and what not to avoid dmg, so thats not a problem for me.
The probability of getting an item with all 5 of the other stats is,
(6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27)*(2/26) = 1 in 23,751
An item with 4 good stats,
(6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27) = 1 in 1827
An item with 3 good stats,
(5/30)*(4/29)*(3/28) = 1 in 203
These are just figures from rolling the stats, the game rolls again to determine what magnitude the stat is.
It costs about 200,000 to make a single Dex Amulet.
The cost to get a 5 stat amulet,
200,000 * 23,751 = 4.75 billion
The cost to get a 4 stat amulet,
200,000 * 1827 = 365.4 million
The cost to get a 3 stat amulet,
200,000 * 203 = 40.6 million
Wow... did I make some kind of statistics mistake?!? WTF! This is even worse than I thought.
EDIT: This does assume the probabilities are the same, which they almost certainly arent, but I don't have that data. I am guessing things like Crit% actually has a higher roll % to offset these terrible numbers.
In support a bit of Morbidlymystic and with the hopes of helping people not continue to argue that he does/does not have the right to be frustrated about his success with the new "crafting"...
Adjust your mindset to change the word "crafting" to "gambling" and it should make a lot more sense. They haven't introduced crafting, they have introduced gambling. Gambling with the control of picking the "powerball number". The other numbers are called "good luck".
I crafted a trifecta glove on my very first try and nothing has come close ever since
So why aren't you wearing it?
Lets see it, please.
That's why I'm not wearing it.
And as for OP, it doesn't matter if it takes 5 tries or 5,000 tries. The next craft will still have the same chance of rolling an absolutely crappy item or an absolutely godly item. It's all luck. Some people get lucky, some people have to wait their turn. You can't measure that. Just accept what you got and either give up on crafting or simply move onto the next one.
Got shoulders better than both can build VIle Wards I had for my WD/Monk. Rolled considerably better bracers than the can build Lacuni and even put a set of Innas Pants on my WD to cover move speed and still come out ahead.
23 million gold and you havent got a thing. Sorry but thats not a whole lot of gold and Im far from rich. As for that price of the gloves on the AH. You do realize that glove was 10 mil because crafting tanked the market on gloves.
Illusion...nope very possible and still cheaper than buying on the AH..imho of course.
This is the type of mentality that propagates the myth. A sack of lies about how awesome crafting is because you got these amazing items without even trying... Assuming this was even true, then you just got lucky.
You always see threads about the awesome gear some people get, but you never see the threads about the amazingly shitty gear people get.
I made 275 gloves, and like maybe 5 were even a slight upgrade over the ones I currently use. The vast majority were like 20k+ dps loss.
So other peoples anecdotal evidence are lies.
But your anecdotal evidence is proof that the system is broke.
Please stop posting.
I think my sample size was sufficiently large enough to make my evidence anything but anecdotal sir. Also as I pointed out before, an item from the AH can be sold back on the AH recuperating almost all cost. Even if you bought a 2B pair of gloves...
Crafting is a waste of gold and time.
really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class
It all comes down to wether or not you like to browse the AH for upgrades or if you would value something you find/craft higher simply because it is "only yours".
I can't get a lot of upgrades from the AH (I can, but most are in the 500m-1b range and I end up giving money to my friends or I sell gold on RMAH instead of saving up a lot) so I craft a considerable amount of amulets each day. I think I'm getting close to 500 crafts now. I had a terrible amulet to start with, so I actually got an upgrade a week ago. The same dps, but I gained 11k hp. Not a fantastic amulet, but still good.
Will that stop me from crafting more? No, ofc not. It's fun to hunt down emeralds, demonic essences and tomes and I know I'll get a trifecta or even quadfecta at some point. Then I'll start crafting bracers or something else.
really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class
Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
my point exactly, if he wants anykind of significal data i would like to something closer to 5.000.000 (5m), even that wouldn't be such a big sample for all the RNG used here
So you are bitching about not getting an upgrade from crafting but you want cc+ccd gettin nerfed anyways? http://www.diablofan...hance-crit-dmg/ Why bother with an upgrade at all?
Im just lucky? Maybe. You are just unlucky? Who knows.
Anyways. AFAIK not every affix has the same odds to roll. In D2 it was different for certain affixes. Not sure aout D3.
In regards of math: http://us.battle.net...opic/7709581148
I am not sure what that has to do with anything.... Stop grasping at straws and relying on logical fallacies to discredit me, and lets talk like educated adults.
The biggest problem I see with your argument is that anyone with a 'sample size' smaller than yours is not valid. My question is: once someone rolls out an 'amazing' item why would they keep crafting it? They wouldn't. So their sample size is always going to be smaller than someone who is getting unlucky in their crafting. The only way for someone to invalidate your argument is if they kept crafting an item long after they had no need to.
Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.
The biggest problem I see with your argument is that anyone with a 'sample size' smaller than yours is not valid. My question is: once someone rolls out an 'amazing' item why would they keep crafting it? They wouldn't. So their sample size is always going to be smaller than someone who is getting unlucky in their crafting. The only way for someone to invalidate your argument is if they kept crafting an item long after they had no need to.
Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.
Even my sample size is too small really, but anything less is ridiculous. The real point is the stats I showed earlier. Its simply not cheaper to make an item via crafting on average. Its just not. The odds are way way against you. Thus crafting is still at best a goldsink in this game. The only diff is extremely new players can actually get some benefit out of it, not much, but some.
The biggest problem I see with your argument is that anyone with a 'sample size' smaller than yours is not valid. My question is: once someone rolls out an 'amazing' item why would they keep crafting it? They wouldn't. So their sample size is always going to be smaller than someone who is getting unlucky in their crafting. The only way for someone to invalidate your argument is if they kept crafting an item long after they had no need to.
Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.
Even my sample size is too small really, but anything less is ridiculous. The real point is the stats I showed earlier. Its simply not cheaper to make an item via crafting on average. Its just not. The odds are way way against you. Thus crafting is still at best a goldsink in this game. The only diff is extremely new players can actually get some benefit out of it, not much, but some.
So if you want to play the AH game then don't use crafting. It's pretty simple.
I don't love going to the AH all the time, therefore I think crafting is EXCELLENT. Crafting was also an obvious nod to self-found people, and the existence of crafting in and of itself has caused the market (specifically shoulders, bracers, gloves, and chests - amulets less so) to completely tank.
If this crafting didn't exist you'd never see those gloves for 10 million so it's a combination of multiple factors. It's not simply "AH is cheaper than crafting" because the main reason the AH prices fell so much is because of crafting. So even if you're not crafting you are still benefitting a lot from the effects it has on the economy.
really? a sample size of 275 is significant? you sir, should go to a stadistic class
Actually, he could come back next month with 5000 unsuccessful crafts and it would still be a tiny amount. How much bad luck does a player need before we agree tant an RNG (in general) system is not fun/fair ? Is it ok for some players to have bad luck as long as others are happy with their RNG ? Just saying RNG is RNG is not enough to justify a player's frustration, you (actually not you, but the developpers) have to demonstrate (internally, they don't have to show us) that the RNG system is fair and fun for ALL the players.
my point exactly, if he wants anykind of significal data i would like to something closer to 5.000.000 (5m), even that wouldn't be such a big sample for all the RNG used here
And therefore you miss my point : no one will ever make 5m crafts, so asking for relevant sample size is useless. What does matter is the enjoyment provided by the game to one 1 and each single unique individual (sorry I couldn't find an other term meaning just one) player and not the average fun of millions of players. Unless you mean it's fine if a few hundreds of people can't get anything good (statistically) as long has the other million has something decent or great ?
Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.
Just so you guys know you wouldn't need sample sizes in the millions that is absurd. There are only 5 affixes that are being rolled out of like 30 ish possible affixes. All you would have to do is make enough to get a good rough estimate of the % chance for each affix. If you wanted the % chance of a high affix that would take even more time.
However, even that is rather pointless as the odds are so absurd that the good stats such as CD would have to be far far far more likely to roll than bad stats for this whole thing to be worthwhile. I seriously doubt that is the case from what I have seen.
Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.
Are you saying D3 is trying to screw us out of our money?
Because if not, then it's a bad analogy (and I think you know it :P)
Not that I necessarily agree with the OP, though.
Well, yeah, I don't think Blizzard is trying to screw us out of our money. But the concept of gambling is there for the crafting system and you really can't believe that you're guaranteed to get something out of X attempts.
That'd be 5/30*4/29*3/28*2/27*1/26th then.
Better odds than for a royal flush.
In Poker there are 52 cards in a deck and you need 5 cards. A reliable sample size is millions of hands. So really, 275 rolls enough?
If your objective was to get a royal flush, but like I said, all you need to know is the probability of the affixes. Its easy to calculate the probability of a royal flush without ever playing the game... The sampling is to determine the probability of affixes. In cards you know that they are all equal.
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I never said that was a viable sample size... I just mentioned it.
Quit grasping at straws...
You could even technically roll it into the gloves crafts. Not like it matters much, they aren't all that different.
I fail to understand nothing. I just hear a bunch of delusional thoughts without any real evidence to back any of it up. Nothing but anecdotal evidence of I got this or I know a guy that got that, etc... You always hear from the people who won, and rarely from the majority.
You say my sample size is small, so where is yours? Yah, thats what I thought.
Crafting simply opens up another avenue on top of your ability to find drops (limited though that is). The main problem is the gold cost. It's a bit out of whack unless you buy gold from the RMAH, which most soloers don't exactly relish doing.
There are like 31 stats, but only a handful are any good.
Best Stats
Mainstat + Vit
Crit chance
Crit damage
IAS
Average damage
Vitality
I primarily want an offensive amulet. I can stutter step and what not to avoid dmg, so thats not a problem for me.
The probability of getting an item with all 5 of the other stats is,
(6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27)*(2/26) = 1 in 23,751
An item with 4 good stats,
(6/30)*(5/29)*(4/28)*(3/27) = 1 in 1827
An item with 3 good stats,
(5/30)*(4/29)*(3/28) = 1 in 203
These are just figures from rolling the stats, the game rolls again to determine what magnitude the stat is.
It costs about 200,000 to make a single Dex Amulet.
The cost to get a 5 stat amulet,
200,000 * 23,751 = 4.75 billion
The cost to get a 4 stat amulet,
200,000 * 1827 = 365.4 million
The cost to get a 3 stat amulet,
200,000 * 203 = 40.6 million
Wow... did I make some kind of statistics mistake?!? WTF! This is even worse than I thought.
EDIT: This does assume the probabilities are the same, which they almost certainly arent, but I don't have that data. I am guessing things like Crit% actually has a higher roll % to offset these terrible numbers.
Armory | YouTube | Twitter | Clan Site
Lets see it, please.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0gMgiAJ3WsmN3lJWVFfVnJlVTQ/edit?usp=sharing
Some of the data is a bit out of date since these were tested back in 1.0.6 and the first PTR iteration.
Adjust your mindset to change the word "crafting" to "gambling" and it should make a lot more sense. They haven't introduced crafting, they have introduced gambling. Gambling with the control of picking the "powerball number". The other numbers are called "good luck".
Monkalicious: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/profile/OptimusPrime-12194/hero/79139477
That's why I'm not wearing it.
And as for OP, it doesn't matter if it takes 5 tries or 5,000 tries. The next craft will still have the same chance of rolling an absolutely crappy item or an absolutely godly item. It's all luck. Some people get lucky, some people have to wait their turn. You can't measure that. Just accept what you got and either give up on crafting or simply move onto the next one.
Armory | YouTube | Twitter | Clan Site
I can't get a lot of upgrades from the AH (I can, but most are in the 500m-1b range and I end up giving money to my friends or I sell gold on RMAH instead of saving up a lot) so I craft a considerable amount of amulets each day. I think I'm getting close to 500 crafts now. I had a terrible amulet to start with, so I actually got an upgrade a week ago. The same dps, but I gained 11k hp. Not a fantastic amulet, but still good.
Will that stop me from crafting more? No, ofc not. It's fun to hunt down emeralds, demonic essences and tomes and I know I'll get a trifecta or even quadfecta at some point. Then I'll start crafting bracers or something else.
Crafting is awesome.
I am not sure what that has to do with anything.... Stop grasping at straws and relying on logical fallacies to discredit me, and lets talk like educated adults.
Crafting is not for everyone. If you want a GUARANTEED upgrade then go to the AH. If you want to roll the dice and MAYBE save a whole lot of money then by all means craft. Its like any sort of gambling, not everyone is going to win.
Even my sample size is too small really, but anything less is ridiculous. The real point is the stats I showed earlier. Its simply not cheaper to make an item via crafting on average. Its just not. The odds are way way against you. Thus crafting is still at best a goldsink in this game. The only diff is extremely new players can actually get some benefit out of it, not much, but some.
So if you want to play the AH game then don't use crafting. It's pretty simple.
I don't love going to the AH all the time, therefore I think crafting is EXCELLENT. Crafting was also an obvious nod to self-found people, and the existence of crafting in and of itself has caused the market (specifically shoulders, bracers, gloves, and chests - amulets less so) to completely tank.
If this crafting didn't exist you'd never see those gloves for 10 million so it's a combination of multiple factors. It's not simply "AH is cheaper than crafting" because the main reason the AH prices fell so much is because of crafting. So even if you're not crafting you are still benefitting a lot from the effects it has on the economy.
Then tell casinos to stop milking people for their money and just let everyone have a share of wins every time they walk in to gamble.
Armory | YouTube | Twitter | Clan Site
However, even that is rather pointless as the odds are so absurd that the good stats such as CD would have to be far far far more likely to roll than bad stats for this whole thing to be worthwhile. I seriously doubt that is the case from what I have seen.
Well, yeah, I don't think Blizzard is trying to screw us out of our money. But the concept of gambling is there for the crafting system and you really can't believe that you're guaranteed to get something out of X attempts.
Armory | YouTube | Twitter | Clan Site
If your objective was to get a royal flush, but like I said, all you need to know is the probability of the affixes. Its easy to calculate the probability of a royal flush without ever playing the game... The sampling is to determine the probability of affixes. In cards you know that they are all equal.