I can see where this post is going. As usual. So this is my last post in this thread. I agree with the OP 100%. I think the proof is in the pudding. ( look at the past couple days of whats going on in the blue post... The blue was "upset bout CAPSLOCKS" so he made it a point to make 5-8 posts about that-meanwhile advertising what the guys was selling/trading like a "paid advertisement". WHAT most people failed to see was that what that same guy was posting in caps locks was about 12 GG items that no 1 person could of in no way possible found by himself like he claimed. - To me this is where the problem is.
I can see where this post is going. As usual. So this is my last post in this thread. I agree with the OP 100%. I think the proof is in the pudding. ( look at the past couple days of whats going on in the blue post... The blue was "upset bout CAPSLOCKS" so he made it a point to make 5-8 posts about that-meanwhile advertising what the guys was selling/trading like a "paid advertisement". WHAT most people failed to see was that what that same guy was posting in caps locks was about 12 GG items that no 1 person could of in no way possible found by himself like he claimed. - To me this is where the problem is.
Ever consider that the "12 GG items" were purchased from the AH and then the guy wanted to resell them? I do the same thing all the time, just not with caps locked topics. I don't get blue posts in mine. You really ought to check out d2jsp. I have about four topics going on simultaneously there that feature "GG items."
I find it utterly hilarious that some people think Blizz needs to mire themselves in constant (and quite complicated) finagling of drops in order for them to post a handsome profit.
Threads like this....I can only describe as immature.
I've noticed you almost never find an item that can be used by your class. I have had a bunch of awesome stuff drop and its never something for my monk. Which makes sense. If you find something good, but never for your class, you get directed traffic to the AH.
I have found my Helm, Crafted my MH, and found my Belt.
3/13 of your items? That's so many!
The only item of mine that I did not get off the AH is probably the same for many. My hellfire ring.
1. Too small a sample size. RNG. I've gotten more legendaries in the last week than ever, and I'm farming for more hours and more efficiently than ever before, playing every day. When I had 2-3 days between sessions I have had ZERO legendaries drop.
2. Wrong. You see twenty Andariels before a Mempo because their drop rates are different. The hard coded drop rates are unknown, even if it's known what the relative drop rates of ALL legendaries vs rares is.
3. The people that have the highest sales on the RMAH farm the least, they spend most of their time flipping the AH.
4. If something of this magnitude were true, too many people would know for it to be a secret. A company like Blizzard wouldn't risk their reputation on something like this when it brings in a fraction of the dollars that WoW's subscription does. This is something like the argument about online poker sites rigging hands to produce more action. They don't need to do that because they would lose far more money if that information ever got out. They're raking it in already, there's no sense in increasing that by 5-10% with such a huge risk.
5. I'm not sure you know what "evidence" means. My first 200 hours of play on my wizard produced 2 legendaries while leveling, and zero at 60. Yesterday I got four in about two hours. 1200 hours is not a large enough sample size. You would need a ridiculously comprehensive test to verify something like this.
I dont know how you can say which is more profitable. These numbers arent published. And neither sides can support an argument here with no proof. Nor can anyone here validate that even if these numbers were published that they were accurate. That being said I guess im playing devils advocate here in a way. So I can say with no hard evidence. I do not feel like it is all based off of a lottery "RNG" system. Too many things dont add up to ME.
Another poor soul lost his sanity to PROBABILITY, the evil god.
Nothing to see here, move along.
(the ones who get a good drop are not the ones who get rich in Diablo, but the ones who snipe the AH all day. No RNG there, just good search patterns).
I dont know how you can say which is more profitable. These numbers arent published. And neither sides can support an argument here with no proof. Nor can anyone here validate that even if these numbers were published that they were accurate. That being said I guess im playing devils advocate here in a way. So I can say with no hard evidence. I do not feel like it is all based off of a lottery "RNG" system. Too many things dont add up to ME.
You said it yourself. Even if Blizzard published the numbers the community might still say they got lied to because "their" statistics say otherwise. But even if 1000 people made their contribution to the statistic they still are just a fraction of the player base.
Lets say diablo 3 has 100k active players (low number on purpose, to avoid being bashed by "OMFG LOL D3 IS DEAD")
even if you interviewed 50k of them and made statistics of their drops, there is still 50% probability that you are wrong... but ppl dont get things like this, until they actually study statistics
Actually, if you would study statistics, you should now that a sample size doesn't simply mean "MOAR", it's never a high percentage. You're confusing sample with census.
However, his sample is completely skewed. Plus, information bias. And many other flaws, but seriously, the only statistically correct study that I've ever seen in D3 is the theorycrafting thread about magic find.
This is turning to another "loot server" type argument. We know how well that last conspiracy theory went (50% of the people who attempted to test out the loot server theory had their IQ reduced by a factor of 3).
Actually 1200 hours is a good sample + questioning of other players. And I believe what OP says is true in at least 75%
How about my sample then? I got 1100 hours, and play with 5-6 people who have similar playtime. I've got good knowledge of their important drops. My experience matches everything I know about probability (which was a one year course at the university).
RNG works equally for every one of us. Given this equality one might expect that every one should be equally rich in the long run. Well, fuck no. Some players will dedicate a lot of time learning the game, practicing skills, and be effective juggling probabilities. Others will learn all hot stat/legendary in the game and snipe good deals in the AH. These guys will get rich. There are some exceptions, like botters, exploiters, Athene's social experiments, and stuff like that, but in general, those who are more dedicated to learn will be more successful.
Playing the game for 1200 hours doesn't necessarily mean one's dedicated to learn. He's dedicated to play, for sure, but that won't bring anyone above the average. Everyone can play the game. The ones who play the game with purpose, thought and method can and will make the difference. That's how life works. That's how Diablo works. Sorry to burst bubbles.
And making conspiracy theories is not a good method.
I quit for several months, and when I came back I found a trifecta Nats... certainly motivated me to keep playing. Can't find anything of value now, though.
I dont know how you can say which is more profitable. These numbers arent published. And neither sides can support an argument here with no proof. Nor can anyone here validate that even if these numbers were published that they were accurate. That being said I guess im playing devils advocate here in a way. So I can say with no hard evidence. I do not feel like it is all based off of a lottery "RNG" system. Too many things dont add up to ME.
Apply Occam's razor. Is it more likely:
Someone programmed drop rates based on a table of data.
Someone programmed drop rates based on a table of data but senior programmers wrote secret code nobody else knows about that analyzes several data points including play time/frequency and RMAH usage and then dynamically changes drop rates to encourage more sales.
With a lack of evidence on both sides, use logic to determine the MOST likely choice.
... There is more to it then "JUST RNG"...prove me wrong, u cant. ...
If you are making a statement as fact, then the onus of proof is on you, not me. You cannot prove what you are saying is true.
And your use of the coin flip example shows that you really don't understand what RNG is, if you think it somehow proves your point.
As an aside, I am a professional programmer, and I can assure you that the time it would take to program the OP "mechanics" into the game would take far longer to do than to write the game as it stands right now. So long, in fact, that Diablo III would not even be released yet if they wanted to do that.
And many other flaws, but seriously, the only statistically correct study that I've ever seen in D3 is the theorycrafting thread about magic find.
Indeed. If someone wants to prove something I suggest he does it in a way that we've already seen in the MF thread.
U cant apply these theories on a predetermined table. Occam's razor in a nutshell : this is to complicated for u to understand, therefore its easier to see my simple answer is the right one: DERP DERP ... u forget money is involved. GAME OVER
Actually, it makes a lot of sense for a company to have some control over what/how/when an item drops, when that item has a potential to give Blizzard some money.
Just give it a thought, it would make no sense (to me) that they just RNG everything without any kind of control behind the scenes.
And many other flaws, but seriously, the only statistically correct study that I've ever seen in D3 is the theorycrafting thread about magic find.
Indeed. If someone wants to prove something I suggest he does it in a way that we've already seen in the MF thread.
U cant apply these theories on a predetermined table. Occam's razor in a nutshell : this is to complicated for u to understand, therefore its easier to see my simple answer is the right one: DERP DERP ... u forget money is involved. GAME OVER
I think you wanted to quote the other guy who used Occam's razor against you. But anyway. A professional programmer up there responded as well saying how much time it would take. And as he requested - go ahead. Prove him wrong.
Fact; Blizzard isn't stupid enough to do this, because if it was ever found out their reputation would be ruined. Just... stop this shit. It's as annoying as the loot server garbage.
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Ever consider that the "12 GG items" were purchased from the AH and then the guy wanted to resell them? I do the same thing all the time, just not with caps locked topics. I don't get blue posts in mine. You really ought to check out d2jsp. I have about four topics going on simultaneously there that feature "GG items."
Armory | YouTube | Twitter | Clan Site
Threads like this....I can only describe as immature.
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3/13 of your items? That's so many!
The only item of mine that I did not get off the AH is probably the same for many. My hellfire ring.
2. Wrong. You see twenty Andariels before a Mempo because their drop rates are different. The hard coded drop rates are unknown, even if it's known what the relative drop rates of ALL legendaries vs rares is.
3. The people that have the highest sales on the RMAH farm the least, they spend most of their time flipping the AH.
4. If something of this magnitude were true, too many people would know for it to be a secret. A company like Blizzard wouldn't risk their reputation on something like this when it brings in a fraction of the dollars that WoW's subscription does. This is something like the argument about online poker sites rigging hands to produce more action. They don't need to do that because they would lose far more money if that information ever got out. They're raking it in already, there's no sense in increasing that by 5-10% with such a huge risk.
5. I'm not sure you know what "evidence" means. My first 200 hours of play on my wizard produced 2 legendaries while leveling, and zero at 60. Yesterday I got four in about two hours. 1200 hours is not a large enough sample size. You would need a ridiculously comprehensive test to verify something like this.
6. Isn't any.
I dont know how you can say which is more profitable. These numbers arent published. And neither sides can support an argument here with no proof. Nor can anyone here validate that even if these numbers were published that they were accurate. That being said I guess im playing devils advocate here in a way. So I can say with no hard evidence. I do not feel like it is all based off of a lottery "RNG" system. Too many things dont add up to ME.
Nothing to see here, move along.
(the ones who get a good drop are not the ones who get rich in Diablo, but the ones who snipe the AH all day. No RNG there, just good search patterns).
You said it yourself. Even if Blizzard published the numbers the community might still say they got lied to because "their" statistics say otherwise. But even if 1000 people made their contribution to the statistic they still are just a fraction of the player base.
Ha. Bagstone.
Actually, if you would study statistics, you should now that a sample size doesn't simply mean "MOAR", it's never a high percentage. You're confusing sample with census.
However, his sample is completely skewed. Plus, information bias. And many other flaws, but seriously, the only statistically correct study that I've ever seen in D3 is the theorycrafting thread about magic find.
Armory | YouTube | Twitter | Clan Site
How about my sample then? I got 1100 hours, and play with 5-6 people who have similar playtime. I've got good knowledge of their important drops. My experience matches everything I know about probability (which was a one year course at the university).
RNG works equally for every one of us. Given this equality one might expect that every one should be equally rich in the long run. Well, fuck no. Some players will dedicate a lot of time learning the game, practicing skills, and be effective juggling probabilities. Others will learn all hot stat/legendary in the game and snipe good deals in the AH. These guys will get rich. There are some exceptions, like botters, exploiters, Athene's social experiments, and stuff like that, but in general, those who are more dedicated to learn will be more successful.
Playing the game for 1200 hours doesn't necessarily mean one's dedicated to learn. He's dedicated to play, for sure, but that won't bring anyone above the average. Everyone can play the game. The ones who play the game with purpose, thought and method can and will make the difference. That's how life works. That's how Diablo works. Sorry to burst bubbles.
And making conspiracy theories is not a good method.
Apply Occam's razor. Is it more likely:
Someone programmed drop rates based on a table of data.
Someone programmed drop rates based on a table of data but senior programmers wrote secret code nobody else knows about that analyzes several data points including play time/frequency and RMAH usage and then dynamically changes drop rates to encourage more sales.
With a lack of evidence on both sides, use logic to determine the MOST likely choice.
If you are making a statement as fact, then the onus of proof is on you, not me. You cannot prove what you are saying is true.
And your use of the coin flip example shows that you really don't understand what RNG is, if you think it somehow proves your point.
As an aside, I am a professional programmer, and I can assure you that the time it would take to program the OP "mechanics" into the game would take far longer to do than to write the game as it stands right now. So long, in fact, that Diablo III would not even be released yet if they wanted to do that.
Go ahead, prove me wrong.
Indeed. If someone wants to prove something I suggest he does it in a way that we've already seen in the MF thread.
Ha. Bagstone.
Currently played toon: https://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Rage-2973/hero/97362116
U cant apply these theories on a predetermined table. Occam's razor in a nutshell : this is to complicated for u to understand, therefore its easier to see my simple answer is the right one: DERP DERP ... u forget money is involved. GAME OVER
Just give it a thought, it would make no sense (to me) that they just RNG everything without any kind of control behind the scenes.
I think you wanted to quote the other guy who used Occam's razor against you. But anyway. A professional programmer up there responded as well saying how much time it would take. And as he requested - go ahead. Prove him wrong.
Ha. Bagstone.