In principle, I agree. GF will be better than MF, and that's certainly what I'll be running early game, whilst I'm leveling up.

However, we can't really know anything until the game gets released. Will the gear we get in Act 4 Normal serve us through to Act 2 Nightmare? or Act 4 Nightmare to Act 2 Hell? Can we afford to go so long with not even close to optimal gear that we get dropped? Or, will we have to be continually crafting items, buying them off the Gold Auction House, in order to progress through the game?

this^

which isnt hard. i did this in the beta, went around a grew a few levels n salvaged stuff n created my gear. all of my gear on all my chars is crafted, not 1 is a drop i found. yes its the beginning of the game but its pretty obvious this will continue through the whole game because you can craft craft craft until you get the rolls you want. sure you'll have some gear you found if its good enough, but mostly crafted stuff

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

"once the pretty hardcore gamers we had testing inferno found it fairly difficult, we then we doubled it" -trolololol jay wilson

I think you misunderstand me - when I say the "average time it takes to get an item" I mean something like this:

-> Jadis's Argent Switch has a drop chance of 0.0000001 (or whatever). I kill one enemy every ten seconds (or whatever) in combat in Inferno. I'm in combat 30% of the time (or whatever) that I'm playing.
-> 0.9999999^x = the probability that the item will have dropped after x monster kills. That means you need to kill just under 7000000 monsters to have a 50% chance of finding that item.
-> That means you need to spend about 19444 hours in combat, or about 65000 hours of actual play time.

Of course, the item isn't really worth 65000 hours because if you've got a MF character it doesn't really matter what drops you get, as long as they're good enough to sell for lots of money. So it's not the chance that you'll get any one specific item that you calculate on, it's the chance you'll get any good item, which is a fair bit higher, making the total value of the item in hours lower. Point is, you can assign a value in hours to any item or group of similarly useful items, and anyone selling good items for less than they could be making if they just had GF gear themselves is clearly an idiot.

And my main point in my post was that because gold and items are exchangeable, it doesn't make sense for either GF or MF to be way better. If everyone thought GF was the best, everyone would get it which would flood the market with gold and make all items way more expensive. If that happened, MF would actually be way better because you could make way more gold out of it. Because of that, the two will HAVE to be roughly as good as each other, unless gold is worthless like it was in D2.

I have to say I'm with Argency. The thing is if GF is way better than MF everybody will go for GF. If everybody goes for GF the value of Gold will fall... and thus rais the value MF. Just think about it if everybody takes GF who will find the Items that you want to buy? Or the materials for crafting that you want to buy? If nobody puts things in the GAH the prices will be insane for the few pieces that are offered.

I think I will go for a mixture of both MF and GF. Enough GF to craft/repair etc and maybe buy some things from time to time and then MF as high as possible. First priority is getting GF to an acceptable level. What that lvl is depends on the economy and will probably change constantly... but thats the fun part about this whole matter .)

even with 100 items of equal or around the same value of that insanely low drop rate. still could spend 1000 hours farming and find nothing of value

With the numbers I quoted (not that they're anything but placeholders) you'd have about a 50% chance of finding one of those 100 items if you played for 650 hours, and if you played for 1000 hours you'd have a 2/3 chance. But then again you can sell things that AREN'T top tier gear as well, so in that time you definitely would have found some things of value. And it STILL doesn't matter, because that wasn't my main point, my main point was that the market sets the value of gold, and that it's therefore impossible for either GF or MF people to be very far ahead of each other. They're both going to be about the same in the long run as far as profiteering goes.

-> Jadis's Argent Switch has a drop chance of 0.0000001 (or whatever). I kill one enemy every ten seconds (or whatever) in combat in Inferno. I'm in combat 30% of the time (or whatever) that I'm playing.
-> 0.9999999^x = the probability that the item will have dropped after x monster kills. That means you need to kill just under 7000000 monsters to have a 50% chance of finding that item.
-> That means you need to spend about 19444 hours in combat, or about 65000 hours of actual play time

Your drop probability is always 0.0000001 no matter how many times you try. The odds are not cumulative.

I find GF better in the beta atleast because you need gold to do a lot of basic things, like leveling up the blacksmith, buying blues to salvage, and using the AH if they ever bring the gold AH back (and if it ever worked).

-> Jadis's Argent Switch has a drop chance of 0.0000001 (or whatever). I kill one enemy every ten seconds (or whatever) in combat in Inferno. I'm in combat 30% of the time (or whatever) that I'm playing.
-> 0.9999999^x = the probability that the item will have dropped after x monster kills. That means you need to kill just under 7000000 monsters to have a 50% chance of finding that item.
-> That means you need to spend about 19444 hours in combat, or about 65000 hours of actual play time

Your drop probability is always 0.0000001 no matter how many times you try. The odds are not cumulative.

Uh oh. Assuming this isn't a troll, I'm not trying to flame you or anything, but here goes nothing - it's really important to get a handle on how statistics work. Not the heavy duty, mathy stuff, just the simple "if I flip a coin a million times, what are the odds of x happening". Everybody really, really needs to know that stuff, because it helps you make decisions that are correct and not get suckered by the part of your brain that has a tendency towards superstition. That's actually pretty much all of your brain, and without statistics it really will sucker you hugely. This is a very minor decision, but you're making a decision on the basis of your statistical knowledge here - presumably since you believe the chance to be so low you won't take MF gear (whether or not you would have anyway). But think about it, without a knowledge of statistics you can't know if you're right. For the love of Zeus, don't just take my word for it, go check to see if what I'm about to say is right!

Here's an explanation of how the calculations work. It's going to sound patronising, because I don't know how much you know, so I'm erring on the side of simplification. Whether or not you read this, please do me a personal favour and go read someone's explanation who is a teacher.

So, if I roll a die, the odds of NOT getting a 6 are 5/6. Roll the same die again and the odds are the same, you're right about that. But what are the odds of NOT getting a 6 on either roll if I roll a die twice? It's not 5/6, because I get two rolls - it should (hopefully, tell me if not) be intuitively obvious that that gives me a better chance of getting a 6 on at least one roll. But you can't just add the odds of getting a 6 from each roll - then it would be 2/6, implying that if you roll 6 dice you have a 6/6 chance of getting a 6. We know that it's possible to roll 6 dice and not get a 6. So how do we calculate the odds of NOT getting a 6 when we roll two dice? Well, the hard way is to look at all the possible outcome combinations and then calculate what fraction of them include at least one 6. "I could get a 1 and a 1. I could get a 1 and a 2. I could get a 2 and a 1. Etc, etc, etc." You can do it that way, but there's an easier way. Look to the internet or a text book for an explanation of why this trick works. You can multiply the odds of NOT getting a 6 on the first try, by the odds of NOT getting a 6 on the second try. That would give you the odds of NOT getting a 6 on either try. So, 5/6*5/6 = 25/36. So the odds of getting a 6 when you get two rolls are 11/36.

ANYWAY, you can apply that to this MF thing. What are the odds of NOT getting the item if you kill one monster? 0.9999999. What are the odds of NOT getting it if you kill two? 0.9999999*0.9999999 = about 0.9999998. If you kill 100 it's 0.9999999^{100} = about 0.99999, and if you kill a million it's around 0.9. That's the odds of NOT getting the item at any point in those million kills, so the odds of getting it are about 0.1 or 1 in ten. Kill a hundred million monsters and the odds of NOT getting the item once are very low.

Hrm, we are in agreement, just coming at it from different points of views. That's all. I'm not disputing that more rolls of the dice is worse, I'm saying that on your current dice roll, your odds are exactly the same as all previous dice rolls. IE This week's powerball numbers have the exact same chance to appear next week as they did this week.

That means you need to kill just under 7000000 monsters to have a 50% chance of finding that item.

This is where my point leads. Mathemtically, odds suggest that you may have a 50% of getting the item based upon a formula; but in reality on this run you are on, your chance of it dropping is still only 0.0000001. You can't look at your previous rolls, and say "Man, now I have a 50% of it dropping" - because you don't. It's a mistake to make this conclusion. This is gambler's logic.

Your odds on that individual drop on this run is always 0.0000001. Ignoring the MF factor, of course, which for all intents and purposes is irrelevant to such low odds anyways.

In a million runs, your overall chance is higher (you get more tries to roll a 1 on a million sided dice - your point), but your individual chance is the same (you still have to roll the 1 on the million sided dice - my point). Sure, more rolls is always nice, but let's be honest with ourselves, rolling a 1 on a million sided die is not reasonable.

This is why I'm in general agreement that GF is a ton better than MF. If you have 2 million people doing what you are doing, their cumulative effort is more likely to produce the drop you want; than your million runs. Thus, it's better to have the Gold to buy that drop than to spend the time doing runs to get it yourself - especially if gold is used up as quickly as implied in the "you will die" video. And I'm also of the opinion that if you do get that "1 in 7 million drop" you RMAH that bad boy instantly for the highest dollar value.

The magic find will get you is more items to be salvaged. No, you arent likely to find legendaries every run, but over an hour of time, I bet 125% (or whatever it was) will produce alot more blue items. These blue items likely wont be useful, but when you salvage everything, it will be valuable (you will get some rare and legendary salvage mats too). And lots of mats will be needed for high end crafting.

MF vs GF will all depend on the trade off costs of the salvage mats vs raw gold.

No, magic find does not increase the quantity of items dropping. It only affects the rarity of items dropping.
Example:
A skeleton is generated to drop a belt. Person A with Y % magic find may have the skeleton drop a common belt. Person B with Y*10 % magic find will have a higher chance of getting a rare belt.
I guess the end result could potentially be the same, as I suppose rare items generate more salvage mats

Edit: Sorry, I'm hungover. I think I might have misunderstood your point. High magic find will result in more blue items as opposed to white items, which can't be salvaged afaik.

Doesn't make much sense, the market is free, and it will balance itself. If people farm too much gold, the gold value diminishes, and the prices of items will go up as people will pay more for the same item because demand >>>>>> offert, and viceversa.

In the end, gold farming will be for people that like stable income with no luck involved.

You're talking about the same thing, but your conclusions are different. While Argency says 'if i roll a dice millions times I'm bound to get a jackpot' thus MF is better, Lorien's says 'you might have a million more chances, but you're still not getting anything'

I assure you that if gold will be SO easy to accumulate, then any item that will be accessible on AH will be EXTREMELY expensive. You might get 50k per hour late in the game, but what does it matter if an item costs 10 millions.

But i agree that GF might became an issue, and Blizz will either reduce the amount of gold dropped (which will hurt everyone who's not GFing) or reduce the effectivness of GF (smaller % values).

I don't think the gold drops will stack up to equal the awesome drops that you will find at later difficulties. 10,000 Gold might seem like much at the beginning. But I bet you'll need at least One Million to buy something decent later on. I think it will be better to have more MF later, you will find better drops and you will still get some gold.

on your current dice roll, your odds are exactly the same as all previous dice rolls. IE This week's powerball numbers have the exact same chance to appear next week as they did this week.

That means you need to kill just under 7000000 monsters to have a 50% chance of finding that item.

This is where my point leads. Mathemtically, odds suggest that you may have a 50% of getting the item based upon a formula; but in reality on this run you are on, your chance of it dropping is still only 0.0000001. You can't look at your previous rolls, and say "Man, now I have a 50% of it dropping" - because you don't. It's a mistake to make this conclusion. This is gambler's logic.

Again, assuming you're not trolling...

Oh well in that case you just read me wrong. You and this guy...

You're talking about the same thing, but your conclusions are different. While Argency says 'if i roll a dice millions times I'm bound to get a jackpot' thus MF is better, Lorien's says 'you might have a million more chances, but you're still not getting anything'

Nobody's saying that if you don't get the drop on your first monster kill you have a higher chance of getting it on your second, that's just crazy and wrong. But I never suggested that was the case. What I said was that over the two kills together you have a higher chance, and that over 7 million kills you have a 50% chance of finding the item from one of those seven million kills. Sure, just because I didn't win today's powerball doesn't mean I have a higher chance of winning tomorrow, but if I go out tomorrow and buy seven million powerball tickets, I have a higher chance of winning than if I just bought one. So the formula is correct, you do have a 50% chance. You just seem to be wrongly interpretting it to mean "you have a 50% chance at one particular moment" when in fact it says you have a 50% chance, spread out over seven million moments, at each of which you have a very low chance.

If it ever comes to the point where you've killed 7 million mobs and haven't gotten that good drop then you're bum out of luck because your chance of getting it over the next seven million is still only 50%. But there's a 50% chance you won't get to that point. And even if you don't find the drop in your first 14 million kills then your chance over the next 7 million is still 50%, but there's only a 25% chance you'll ever get to that point. The chance of you killing fifty million mobs and not getting the drop is less than 1%, so what's the point of saying that on the 50000001st mob you only have a 0.00001% chance of finding the item? Everyone else gets that already and is ignoring it because it's not important.

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

To post a comment, please login or register a new account.

this^

which isnt hard. i did this in the beta, went around a grew a few levels n salvaged stuff n created my gear. all of my gear on all my chars is crafted, not 1 is a drop i found. yes its the beginning of the game but its pretty obvious this will continue through the whole game because you can craft craft craft until you get the rolls you want. sure you'll have some gear you found if its good enough, but mostly crafted stuff

I have to say I'm with Argency. The thing is if GF is way better than MF everybody will go for GF. If everybody goes for GF the value of Gold will fall... and thus rais the value MF. Just think about it if everybody takes GF who will find the Items that you want to buy? Or the materials for crafting that you want to buy? If nobody puts things in the GAH the prices will be insane for the few pieces that are offered.

I think I will go for a mixture of both MF and GF. Enough GF to craft/repair etc and maybe buy some things from time to time and then MF as high as possible. First priority is getting GF to an acceptable level. What that lvl is depends on the economy and will probably change constantly... but thats the fun part about this whole matter .)

Edit: Just for reference the datamined affixes:

GF - http://diablonut.incgamers.com/affix/gold-from-monsters

MF - http://diablonut.incgamers.com/affix/magic-find

With the numbers I quoted (not that they're anything but placeholders) you'd have about a 50% chance of finding one of those 100 items if you played for 650 hours, and if you played for 1000 hours you'd have a 2/3 chance. But then again you can sell things that AREN'T top tier gear as well, so in that time you definitely would have found

somethings of value. And it STILL doesn't matter, because that wasn't my main point, my main point was that the market sets the value of gold, and that it's therefore impossible for either GF or MF people to be very far ahead of each other. They're both going to be about the same in the long run as far as profiteering goes.Your drop probability is always 0.0000001 no matter how many times you try. The odds are not cumulative.

D3 Channel: OnetwoD3

Uh oh. Assuming this isn't a troll, I'm not trying to flame you or anything, but here goes nothing - it's really important to get a handle on how statistics work. Not the heavy duty, mathy stuff, just the simple "if I flip a coin a million times, what are the odds of x happening". Everybody really, really needs to know that stuff, because it helps you make decisions that are correct and not get suckered by the part of your brain that has a tendency towards superstition. That's actually pretty much all of your brain, and without statistics it really will sucker you hugely. This is a very minor decision, but you're making a decision on the basis of your statistical knowledge here - presumably since you believe the chance to be so low you won't take MF gear (whether or not you would have anyway). But think about it, without a knowledge of statistics you can't know if you're right. For the love of Zeus, don't just take my word for it, go check to see if what I'm about to say is right!

Here's an explanation of how the calculations work. It's going to sound patronising, because I don't know how much you know, so I'm erring on the side of simplification. Whether or not you read this, please do me a personal favour and go read someone's explanation who is a teacher.

So, if I roll a die, the odds of NOT getting a 6 are 5/6. Roll the same die again and the odds are the same, you're right about that. But what are the odds of NOT getting a 6 on either roll if I roll a die twice? It's not 5/6, because I get two rolls - it should (hopefully, tell me if not) be intuitively obvious that that gives me a better chance of getting a 6 on at least one roll. But you can't just add the odds of getting a 6 from each roll - then it would be 2/6, implying that if you roll 6 dice you have a 6/6 chance of getting a 6. We know that it's possible to roll 6 dice and not get a 6. So how do we calculate the odds of NOT getting a 6 when we roll two dice? Well, the hard way is to look at all the possible outcome combinations and then calculate what fraction of them include at least one 6. "I could get a 1 and a 1. I could get a 1 and a 2. I could get a 2 and a 1. Etc, etc, etc." You can do it that way, but there's an easier way. Look to the internet or a text book for an explanation of why this trick works. You can multiply the odds of NOT getting a 6 on the first try, by the odds of NOT getting a 6 on the second try. That would give you the odds of NOT getting a 6 on either try. So, 5/6*5/6 = 25/36. So the odds of getting a 6 when you get two rolls are 11/36.

ANYWAY, you can apply that to this MF thing. What are the odds of NOT getting the item if you kill one monster? 0.9999999. What are the odds of NOT getting it if you kill two? 0.9999999*0.9999999 = about 0.9999998. If you kill 100 it's 0.9999999

^{100}= about 0.99999, and if you kill a million it's around 0.9. That's the odds of NOT getting the item at any point in those million kills, so the odds of getting it are about 0.1 or 1 in ten. Kill a hundred million monsters and the odds of NOT getting the item once are very low.This is where my point leads. Mathemtically, odds suggest that you may have a 50% of getting the item based upon a formula; but in reality on this run you are on, your chance of it dropping is still only 0.0000001. You can't look at your previous rolls, and say "Man, now I have a 50% of it dropping" - because you don't. It's a mistake to make this conclusion. This is gambler's logic.

Your odds on that individual drop on this run is always 0.0000001. Ignoring the MF factor, of course, which for all intents and purposes is irrelevant to such low odds anyways.

In a million runs, your overall chance is higher (you get more tries to roll a 1 on a million sided dice - your point), but your individual chance is the same (you still have to roll the 1 on the million sided dice - my point). Sure, more rolls is always nice, but let's be honest with ourselves, rolling a 1 on a million sided die is not reasonable.

This is why I'm in general agreement that GF is a ton better than MF. If you have 2 million people doing what you are doing, their cumulative effort is more likely to produce the drop you want; than your million runs. Thus, it's better to have the Gold to buy that drop than to spend the time doing runs to get it yourself - especially if gold is used up as quickly as implied in the "you will die" video. And I'm also of the opinion that if you do get that "1 in 7 million drop" you RMAH that bad boy instantly for the highest dollar value.

No, magic find does

notincrease the quantity of items dropping. It only affects the rarity of items dropping.Example:

A skeleton is generated to drop a belt. Person A with Y % magic find may have the skeleton drop a common belt. Person B with Y*10 % magic find will have a higher chance of getting a rare belt.

I guess the end result could potentially be the same, as I suppose rare items generate more salvage mats

Edit: Sorry, I'm hungover. I think I might have misunderstood your point. High magic find will result in more blue items as opposed to white items, which can't be salvaged afaik.

In the end, gold farming will be for people that like stable income with no luck involved.

You're talking about the same thing, but your conclusions are different. While Argency says 'if i roll a dice millions times I'm bound to get a jackpot' thus MF is better, Lorien's says 'you might have a million more chances, but you're still not getting anything'

I assure you that if gold will be SO easy to accumulate, then any item that will be accessible on AH will be EXTREMELY expensive. You might get 50k per hour late in the game, but what does it matter if an item costs 10 millions.

But i agree that GF might became an issue, and Blizz will either reduce the amount of gold dropped (which will hurt everyone who's not GFing) or reduce the effectivness of GF (smaller % values).

Oh well in that case you just read me wrong. You and this guy...

Nobody's saying that if you don't get the drop on your first monster kill you have a higher chance of getting it on your second, that's just crazy and wrong. But I never suggested that was the case. What I said was that

over the two kills togetheryou have a higher chance, and that over 7 million kills you have a 50% chance of finding the item fromone of those seven million kills. Sure, just because I didn't win today's powerball doesn't mean I have a higher chance of winning tomorrow, but if I go out tomorrow and buy seven million powerball tickets, I have a higher chance of winning than if I just bought one. So the formula is correct, you do have a 50% chance. You just seem to be wrongly interpretting it to mean "you have a 50% chance at one particular moment" when in fact it says you have a 50% chance, spread out over seven million moments, at each of which you have a very low chance.If it ever comes to the point where you've killed 7 million mobs and haven't gotten that good drop then you're bum out of luck because your chance of getting it over the next seven million is still only 50%. But there's a 50% chance you won't get to that point. And even if you don't find the drop in your first 14 million kills then your chance over the next 7 million is still 50%, but there's only a 25% chance you'll ever get to that point. The chance of you killing fifty million mobs and not getting the drop is less than 1%, so what's the point of saying that on the 50000001st mob you only have a 0.00001% chance of finding the item? Everyone else gets that already and is ignoring it because it's not important.