Is January 17th still viable?

  • #61
    Woaw, ppl in here are getting touchy.. the whisper of a mid 2012 release and people start flaming...
    I would also be pissed if they first release it mid 2012, but hey... whattayagonnado?

    damnit blizzard, you are ruining my 2012 gaming timeframe!
  • #62
    Quote from CherubDown

    Blizzard has in no way said nor have they inferred that the release date will even be in January.


    Stop stepping on my dreams.

  • #63
    Quote from Dolaiim

    Quote from Polrayne

    What I was hoping for is anyone who has been a part of a game's release - from the developer side - that can speak about time tables of production. Specifically where we assume D3 is at right now given the relevant information and if its possible for a mid January release.


    It takes at least 3 weeks from the gold master build to worldwide release launch. You have to verify (sanity test), package, ship, pub/marketing, deal with legal hastles, etc. These will be amplified due to RMAH legalese and treaties. Given that Christmas vacation is here and productivity plummets in December, a January release is impossible.

    But let's be realistic for a minute.. D3 right now has NOT even undergone code freeze.. meaning they are not feature code complete.. Typically, it takes 3-4 months to ship from the "feature code complete" milestone, but with Blizzard that milestone (and the associated time table) doesn't necessarily make sense, since they iterate so much, as opposed to traditional "watershed development" methods.

    Honestly though, you know it's not coming out before March. I mean, they have just finally started making final decisions about actual feature content (runestones, artisans, etc). It will take, in my estimation (been a software engineer for almost a decade now), ~2 months from the time Bliz is truly "feature code complete" to launch. 2 months before there's even a prayer for a gold master.

    And you know Blizzard's track record for delaying ship dates.

    For my money, March 2012 is a long shot. I'm setting my expectations for April or May 2012.



    So Christmas is going to delay the game 3 months....damn that eggnog hangover must be rough.
    Do you want to get scammed? Perhaps a nice keylogger?
    "Just google "diablo 3 gold guide" and magical rainbow covered demons will assault your eyes."
  • #64
    Quote from Dolaiim


    If that's your point, I absolutely agree. However, I'm not talking about what's possible, I'm talking about what's LIKELY. I personally believe it's HIGHLY unlikely that the game will launch in January, and I have both evidence and professional experience on which that opinion is based. Now, I don't know everything, and I will kindly (and happily) eat my words if my opinion is wrong.


    you said "a january release is impossible"

    as in zero possibility, now your going backwards <_

    if you said likely from the beginning then this wouldnt matter, its the fact that your first post sounded like you were professing information as if you KNEW the future of exactly what was going to happen.
    "once the pretty hardcore gamers we had testing inferno found it fairly difficult, we then we doubled it" -trolololol jay wilson
  • #65
    January 17th viable? Yes.

    (Edit: Also added some kitties to make the reading easier.)

    All of you should know this by now, but might have forgotten or just pushed it to the back of your head. Blizz initially stated that they aimed to release D3 at the end of 2011 if nothing went wrong. This implies that they probably could've released it then, but with a couple of bugs and most likely without the RMAH. If they really pushed the 2011 release, they would've included the RMAH maybe between the first and second patch of the beta. Maybe even in the initial beta release.

    If Blizz say something like that they aim for 2011, you must know they really think they might be able to do it, since they usually announce release dates about 2 months prior to official release, hence they aimed to announce the release date in Sep/Oct, which at this point, sounds ridiculous.

    In the meantime, after they announced the "early 2012 push back", they probably slowed down a bit and went over the mechanics of the game which required the most attention (AH and runes the 2 biggies) and of course the beta players' responses.



    Likely? Meh.

    The Blizzard ANZ tweet and the thread. It's obviously not an official announcement of any sort, but it does sounds kinda solid, depending on how you interpret the tweets! (most of us will say it's release, cause it's the most sought out thing in the universe atm. And it isn't the Full Opening Cinematic, cause it has been announced already) :P . If they do announce the release date at the VGAs (promoting myself a bit :P ), late Jan/early Feb is most likely.

    I also read this regarding the RMAH and Rating(18+) situation in Korea. Blizz is still trying to sort it out (Translated) source:

    Diablo III - Korea Ratings Under Consideration

    As we approach it's release, players can review the ratings to see if it is within their age group and if the game is suitable for them. We recently contacted the Korea Ratings Board to receive a Diablo III classification. We are aiming for a Mature Adult 18+ rating. The ratings for consideration were based on the latest version of the game and they have been provided a full version with all elements of the game included. We will provide more information and progress of their deliberations sometime at a later date.


    I'm sure this won't take long now, since Blizz recently contacted the Korea Ratings Board. But it did take long from beginning compared to already assigned Ratings in other countries:

    US - M (26 Sep)(not necessarily the exact date)
    UK - 15 (4 Okt-ish)
    Germany - 16+ (31 Aug)

    So why does it take so long?

    The Auction House

    There have been many questions about the currency auction house. An auction system like this is in some ways an unprecedented new effort, and there are different regulations and laws in other regions, which we are working on. After an internal investigation, we concluded that the auction house system is legitimate in Korea. However, we respect and are taking the classification system for each region very seriously. Blizzard has been working closely with the national regulation groups, and we are cooperating fully with the Korea rating committee. We are getting closer to release more information, and we will let you know the status soon.


    This will take longer to sort out than the Rating. So yeah.



    Quote from jabroni85

    AH is working great IMO, and i think Jan 24th but probably the 31st, first week in Feb at the latest.

    DO you mean the Gold AH? Then yes, otherwise no. The RMAH still has many bugs.

    Quote from Brake Failure

    I wonder what the odds of them officially announcing th their pushing the date back again are, or will they just not release it without formally stating, ok, late 2012 now.

    Yes I think if they do intend to push the release back again, they will definitely not announce it!! Defecation will get accumulated in many people's pants!

    I also think they might have pushed the release back another couple of notches: Do you remember the A Day In The Life articles? There were initially only 3 "issues" but there were recently added 2 more articles...

    Blizz obviously wants to keep us busy/distracted. They spread out the info they're gonna release to the public between now and when the game is eventually released. Also the art, omgeez the art.

    Just a thought though.

    Edit: Hope this bring some perspective otherwise I wasted a lot of time doin this...

  • #66
    @MonkMan +1 for kitties.
  • #67
    Quote from Jaelzadeon

    @MonkMan +1 for kitties.

    So if I just posted some kitties, you also would've repped me? :P Now I'll only reply with kitties, this is gonna be difficult <_
  • #68
    Quote from Dolaiim

    If that's your point, I absolutely agree. However, I'm not talking about what's possible, I'm talking about what's LIKELY. I personally believe it's HIGHLY unlikely that the game will launch in January, and I have both evidence and professional experience on which that opinion is based. Now, I don't know everything, and I will kindly (and happily) eat my words if my opinion is wrong.

    There's plenty of information to back up my claims, just as there's plenty of info to back up yours. I just feel my bias should be represented alongside the others.

    Frankly folks, take the hostility down a few notches, let's not bring our e-peens into this. I'm not pulling the "I'm a software engineer card" for for any other reason than the OP asked for the opinion of people who have worked in the industry.


    Thanks to Dolaiim for this - this was the information that I was looking for. We can speculate about the release date, using theories based on cryptic hints potentially given by the folks at Blizz. We can speculate based on previous releases from Blizz. We can even speculate using reverse psychology of "the game is coming out in 2015 - I hate Blizz, QQ."

    But its all just speculation. Which someone pointed out, is what we can do right now to pacify ourselves until the game hits.

    I wanted to know from someone who is in the industry what TYPICALLY a game must go through to get to release and their opinion on where D3 is at in the process - based on what little we know. I personally feel that Blizz has kept a lot hidden behind the scenes and that this process may not be as stereotypical as possible. But that's my speculation. After reading what Dolaiim has had to say in this thread - I am refining my theories a bit.

    Don't hate because someone is being realistic about the process. Keep an open mind.

    Oh and MonkManD3: HILARIOUS!
  • #69
    Quote from Polrayne

    Quote from Dolaiim

    If that's your point, I absolutely agree. However, I'm not talking about what's possible, I'm talking about what's LIKELY. I personally believe it's HIGHLY unlikely that the game will launch in January, and I have both evidence and professional experience on which that opinion is based. Now, I don't know everything, and I will kindly (and happily) eat my words if my opinion is wrong.

    There's plenty of information to back up my claims, just as there's plenty of info to back up yours. I just feel my bias should be represented alongside the others.

    Frankly folks, take the hostility down a few notches, let's not bring our e-peens into this. I'm not pulling the "I'm a software engineer card" for for any other reason than the OP asked for the opinion of people who have worked in the industry.


    Thanks to Dolaiim for this - this was the information that I was looking for. We can speculate about the release date, using theories based on cryptic hints potentially given by the folks at Blizz. We can speculate based on previous releases from Blizz. We can even speculate using reverse psychology of "the game is coming out in 2015 - I hate Blizz, QQ."

    But its all just speculation. Which someone pointed out, is what we can do right now to pacify ourselves until the game hits.

    I wanted to know from someone who is in the industry what TYPICALLY a game must go through to get to release and their opinion on where D3 is at in the process - based on what little we know. I personally feel that Blizz has kept a lot hidden behind the scenes and that this process may not be as stereotypical as possible. But that's my speculation. After reading what Dolaiim has had to say in this thread - I am refining my theories a bit.

    Don't hate because someone is being realistic about the process. Keep an open mind.



    I am confused to which profound statement are you referring? The Christmas eggnog that knocks every single employee unconscious for 3 months?

    And I love how you decalre it is all speculation and in the very last sentence you state, "but I am right!"
    Do you want to get scammed? Perhaps a nice keylogger?
    "Just google "diablo 3 gold guide" and magical rainbow covered demons will assault your eyes."
  • #70
    Damn, looks like everybody just give me rep for some cute kitties in my elongated post...I'll take note to this. :P

    But yeah, we can speculate as much as we want to, it's still not official until Blizz give the release date themselves. Speculation is fun though! I think most people just do it cause:
    1 - They're bored, not really me. I just do it when I have time and when I read something interesting.
    2 - Or maybe in hopes that their speculation is one day correct once Blizz officially announce the date (they would have to blow of the virtual dust layer off their post). Not me, it would be cool if I'm right though! (But I doubt it).
    3 - It's fun!! I certainly enjoy connecting imaginary dots together!
    4 - For the rep (for future posters: Add kitties in a long post, works wonders!)
  • #71
    When a game "goes gold," then you can actually count on a game's release within a month's time. A game can't be produced, boxed, and shipped in record time just because you want it to come out very badly. :P. January is not likely.
    Some people tell me I'm going to hell. I just let them know that I've already packed my bags!
  • #72
    Quote from asfastasican

    When a game "goes gold," then you can actually count on a game's release within a month's time. A game can't be produced, boxed, and shipped in record time just because you want it to come out very badly. :P. January is not likely.


    True, but that assumes they would announce the release date the moment they started producing, boxing, and shipping. Not exactly a great assumption.

    I think someone else showed that Vanilla WoW was released 19 says after they announced it.
    Do you want to get scammed? Perhaps a nice keylogger?
    "Just google "diablo 3 gold guide" and magical rainbow covered demons will assault your eyes."
  • #73
    Quote from Mysticjbyrd

    Quote from asfastasican

    When a game "goes gold," then you can actually count on a game's release within a month's time. A game can't be produced, boxed, and shipped in record time just because you want it to come out very badly. :P. January is not likely.


    True, but that assumes they would announce the release date the moment they started producing, boxing, and shipping. Not exactly a great assumption.

    I think someone else showed that Vanilla WoW was released 19 says after they announced it.


    +1 for reading other comments. all this "game isnt gold" "code isnt locked" bla bla "impossible in a month bla". the 19 days before announcement of WoW completely destroys all these arguments. ^_^
    "once the pretty hardcore gamers we had testing inferno found it fairly difficult, we then we doubled it" -trolololol jay wilson
  • #74
    Here's a couple more things that I've considered in making a hopeful March, more likely April prediction.. Again, these are just the opinions and insights of a software engineer who has worked both inside the gaming industry and out. Opinions are based on incomplete information, I cannot be held liable for correctness, heartache, rage, sadness, glee, or any other associated emotions or intimations. Peace be with you. And also with you.

    First, how is the Beta going? I answer this a couple of ways:

    1. There still seems to be a non-trivial number of severe/catastrophic bug reports coming in from beta players. This is based on my lurking the bug forums on bnet. These kinds of problems require a dev to:
    a. reproduce
    b. debug
    c. troubleshoot
    d. think up a fix
    e. code the fix
    f. code review the fix
    g. unit test the fix
    h. do a new build to smoke test the fix internally
    i. release the fix in a new beta build

    That process typically takes about 3 days minimum to a week or more (depending on severity and complexity).

    I'd be surprised if all of those bugs have already been fixed internally, and simply haven't been patched into the beta yet. I can't be certain where they are in that process, but you can take rough guesses at bug backlog based on how many bugs are being filed. I'd say they're at least a month out on bugs, give or take. I'd be shocked if they could resolve all bugs in less than a month.

    Now, as some of you have rightly pointed out, beta builds aren't necessarily representative of current dev build progress, but different companies handle this differently, and usually, the latest code is the most stable (assuming there is good sanity/smoke testing to handle bad code fixes). This may not be the case with Bliz, as it seems they have many parallel builds running simultaneously in order to test specific components individually.. but that means they still have to do integration test, which can shake out some serious issues.

    2. They have been dealing with battle.net crashes, which might be minor, but are usually more serious infrastructure problems that can be difficult to root cause and troubleshoot.

    3. They still haven't done very large scale/stress tests (from what I can tell) of their public game infrastructure (refer to the SW:TOR stress tests they did in their beta recently), which they stated as one of the primary reasons for the beta. So that tells me either they're having trouble getting the scale numbers they want, or they're dealing with lots of severe, system-test level bugs of high complexity, which take a while to fix, and may be blocking said boundary/stress tests.

    Second, how much more time did they need when they pushed back the DEC 2011 date? This is different across companies. The company I work for has to push back internal dates all the time, but we very rarely push back external dates. (By the way, most software companies have internal deadlines that are weeks before the actual, committed external deadlines). When we push back internals, they are on the order of days or weeks, and on rare occasions, months. But when we have to push back external dates, it's usually because something major shifted (resources, change in business strategy, workforce reduction, etc) OR something fairly major is needed (i.e. re-writes, need to integrate more features for competitive reasons that aren't complete, etc).

    In my view, Blizzard was going to have to make a lot of concessions on major features in order to meet a Dec 2011 deadline. When they finally said "No, let's get it right the first time and push the date back," that means they chose to really take the time to iterate, focus on quality, get the necessary re-writes done correctly, and get the product super-solid, so they wouldn't waste the first month of release patching an inferior product, all the while alienating a fan-base who's waited years for the game.

    I think they made the right choice. I also think that making this choice bought them additional months, not additional days, from the original Dec 2011 push.
    "Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
    -Thomas Jefferson
  • #75
    Quote from Dolaiim


    3. They still haven't done very large scale/stress tests (from what I can tell) of their public game infrastructure (refer to the SW:TOR stress tests they did in their beta recently), which they stated as one of the primary reasons for the beta. So that tells me they're having trouble getting the scale numbers they want, or they're dealing with lots of severe, system-test level bugs of high complexity.


    SWTOR is about to release on the 20th... i have early game access and will be able to play on the 13th.. <_
    "once the pretty hardcore gamers we had testing inferno found it fairly difficult, we then we doubled it" -trolololol jay wilson
  • #76
    You are probably right Dolaiim. But I want to believe! I am so hyped I am not sure I will survive for so long :D I am still hopeful that they can make it in second half of February.
  • #77
    i actually hope for a late march release.
    1. because i write my last exams in march
    2. i have birthday in march and could afford the CE.

    cant wait for saturday i really really believe they will announce it
  • #78
    Quote from WishedHeHadBeta

    Quote from Dolaiim


    3. They still haven't done very large scale/stress tests (from what I can tell) of their public game infrastructure (refer to the SW:TOR stress tests they did in their beta recently), which they stated as one of the primary reasons for the beta. So that tells me they're having trouble getting the scale numbers they want, or they're dealing with lots of severe, system-test level bugs of high complexity.


    SWTOR is about to release on the 20th... i have early game access and will be able to play on the 13th.. <_


    Good point..

    I will say, usually companies want to scale/stress test as far away from release as possible, to give them adequate reaction time to prepare for or fix scale issues that come out of the test.. but in reality that rarely happens.

    As an aside, you'd be amazed how difficult it can be to get developers to even recognize the importance of scale testing. As a long-time QA lead, after more than one yelling match, the thing I learned was this: As a tester, you're breaking someone's brainchild. It's like telling a father that his son sucks at sports.. I've done both development and test.. as a developer, once my code was working at small scale, I was so stoked it was running, it's kind of like finishing a house of cards: you don't want anyone to blow on it for fear it'll collapse. But I always had this sinking feeling my code wouldn't hold up at scale, so subconsciously I just didn't want to see what the scale results even were. This kind of psychology is pretty common in the field.. I mean, most engineers tend to resemble angsty teenagers with something to prove :)
    "Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
    -Thomas Jefferson
  • #79
    Quote from Dolaiim

    I think they made the right choice. I also think that making this choice bought them additional months, not additional days, from the original Dec 2011 push.

    I though they did not announce a December release, but a pre-2012 release. Depending on this internal date, Jan 17 could have been months away.
    Do you want to get scammed? Perhaps a nice keylogger?
    "Just google "diablo 3 gold guide" and magical rainbow covered demons will assault your eyes."
  • #80
    Quote from Mysticjbyrd

    Quote from Dolaiim

    I think they made the right choice. I also think that making this choice bought them additional months, not additional days, from the original Dec 2011 push.

    I though they did not announce a December release, but a pre-2012 release. Depending on this internal date, Jan 17 could have been months away.


    That's certainly a possibility, but I just can't see Blizzard saying "You know guys, if there were 17 additional days in 2011, we could release a D3 that meets our standards." 17 days doesn't make the kind of difference that warrants an external release-date delay. More likely, what they said was this:

    "Well guys, we can either pull the trigger and release now, patch all the bugfixes in our backlog, and really hope the runestone deal works out.. or we can take another 2 months, really be sure, and confidently release a great product that will blow people away."

    Here's what we have to remember: When Blizzard releases a title, they want to blow the entire gaming industry's mind all over their face. They want to build games that last for a decade, not a year. They look at Dice, Bethesda, Bioware, Infinity Ward, etc.. and say "That's not us."

    Battlefield 3 knew that the timing of their release (i.e. beating MW3 to the punch) was just as important as the quality of their release. Blizzard just doesn't operate on the same planet.

    When you're looking at product that will probably live for 10 years, adding fun to the lives of millions, what's another 2 months? I say do your thing Blizzard. I believe in you, and it's worth the wait. In their history they've never let me down. If I've been disappointed and frustrated throughout this process (believe me I have), it's the fault of my own expecations.
    "Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."
    -Thomas Jefferson
  • To post a comment, please or register a new account.
Posts Quoted:
Reply
Clear All Quotes