So what the OP is saying, is all his number are from his hat and nothing tangible. Thus rendering your analysis useless.
Sorry but saying 10% is only playing public games is really something I would be surprise. So since you have no proof, sorry your are only speculating.
10% is generous in favor of a small test base. The actual number is likely somewhere in the 5-8% range, which would support an even larger test base.
My estimates are based on other online games, and then lowballed to all hell to make a point. I'm skewing the numbers wildly in favor of a smaller testing group to show that even then these insanely low estimates are nonsense. The majority of you vastly overestimate the number of active players on any given game at any given time.
These are not firm numbers by any means, but one would have to be borderline insane to believe the number of keys given out so far was anywhere under 10,000. The numbers just don't support that.
I know it's hard to grasp, but while these are all estimates based on the very tiny amount of data we have, it's the RANGE that's important, and it doesn't match the "few hundred" population total at ALL.
By skewing all the numbers in favor of a small test base, I'm showing that even under ideal circumstances the few hundred estimate doesn't make sense.
If that's too tough to understand, well, you should probably go take another remedial math class.
Who pissed in your cheerios?
Just think, in a few months we'll all be playing Diablo 3, and none of this number guessing nonsense will matter. In fact, it doesn't even matter now...
I went to the closest McDonalds today. There were about 10-15 people in the lobby and 3 in the drive-thru. At peak times, there are about 30 people in the lobby and 8 in the drive-thru. Therefore, I speculate only 100 people eat at McDonalds overall.
The above is a joke and sounds exactly like these topics.
Beta attendance can be and will be purely speculative on our end. Only Blizzard knows what's going on. The number of public games on a given quest is NOT a reference point of any kind.
The number of public games on a given quest is NOT a reference point of any kind.
Actually, I'd be willing to bet it's actually a pretty decent reference. The problem is, we have no idea to judge what the reference is. If Blizzard told us that when 25 people are in public games 500 people are in private games and when 100 people are in public games, 1800 people are in private games, we'd have numbers we can work with. But you can't solve the equation X = Y * Z without having some other information. (Yes, I know technically that equation is already "solved" as its in its simplest form, shut up)
The number of public games on a given quest is NOT a reference point of any kind.
Actually, I'd be willing to bet it's actually a pretty decent reference. The problem is, we have no idea to judge what the reference is. If Blizzard told us that when 25 people are in public games 500 people are in private games and when 100 people are in public games, 1800 people are in private games, we'd have numbers we can work with. But you can't solve the equation X = Y * Z without having some other information. (Yes, I know technically that equation is already "solved" as its in its simplest form, shut up)
This is why the Facebook invites will be so helpful. We'll have an exact number of invites (assuming no Opt-In) and we'll be able to see how much the public pop increases by.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Sorry but saying 10% is only playing public games is really something I would be surprise. So since you have no proof, sorry your are only speculating.
Who pissed in your cheerios?
Just think, in a few months we'll all be playing Diablo 3, and none of this number guessing nonsense will matter. In fact, it doesn't even matter now...
It's not a matter of credentials, anyone can do arithmetic. It's a matter of you talking out of your ass and calling it math.
Maybe you should take another remedial class in the uselessness of scrubbing a turd.
Spoiler: Your post is the turd, and your persistent and nonsensical defense of it is the scrubbing.
-Thomas Jefferson
The above is a joke and sounds exactly like these topics.
Beta attendance can be and will be purely speculative on our end. Only Blizzard knows what's going on. The number of public games on a given quest is NOT a reference point of any kind.
Actually, I'd be willing to bet it's actually a pretty decent reference. The problem is, we have no idea to judge what the reference is. If Blizzard told us that when 25 people are in public games 500 people are in private games and when 100 people are in public games, 1800 people are in private games, we'd have numbers we can work with. But you can't solve the equation X = Y * Z without having some other information. (Yes, I know technically that equation is already "solved" as its in its simplest form, shut up)
This is why the Facebook invites will be so helpful. We'll have an exact number of invites (assuming no Opt-In) and we'll be able to see how much the public pop increases by.