I think more people apply for beta than actually get the game. Lots of people use betas as a demo to see if they like the game or not. I'm sure SC2 had more than 3 million who opted-in but didn't buy it at release.
I think more people apply for beta than actually get the game. Lots of people use betas as a demo to see if they like the game or not. I'm sure SC2 had more than 3 million who opted-in but didn't buy it at release.
yes of course, the number of people who actually buy it is always less then the number of opt-ins. BUT the logic still stands... doesn't matter how much the game sells, I'm talking about the proportion of opt-ins and invites (:
Idk how many of you were active/lurking on the sc2 forums when that beta started, but I just wanted to let everyone who wasn't around for that know that wave one took 3-4 hours at least to complete when the sc2 beta went live, and people were posting about getting in most of that time. Additionally, there were several "waves" of invites throughout the beta, all taking some period of time to complete like the 1st one did. Finally, there were many "contests" for beta keys, but most involved blizzard posting 20ish keys on facebook or twitter, and whoever added it to their bnet account 1st got in. So what can we learn from this?
First - Since there hasn't been waves of forum posts of people getting in, opt-in invites probably haven't actually started yet.
Second - It won't happen all at once, unless they have changed their system. Like I said, for sc2, it was a several hour process. So don't lose all hope if you see someone saying they got an opt-in invite if you don't have one yet. As long as it's still the day invites are going out you have a shot (although don't be too optimistic - the vast majority of us will NOT be getting in).
Thirdly - If you are truly desperate for a beta key and have lots of free time, download an addon like check4change for firefox/chrome, and always have Blizzards facebook/twitter pages open and refreshing. You may get lucky and get a key this way.
Finally - Beta invites happen in waves (again, assuming no change), so don't freak out if you don't get in in the first wave. You will still have a few more chances, and even if you don't ever get in, we are in the home stretch (relative to the game's development time) and release will be before you know it, and you are only missing out on the first 1/3 of act 1, or 1/12 of the game. Don't sweat it too much =D
This is actually terrible logic, beyond the fact that it's highly unlikely no one from a sample of 900 wouldn't have gotten a key none of what you said makes any sense.
But the fact that no one on this forum has a key was enough to let us know already.
Anyone who believes keys could have possibly been sent out with no one on this forum getting one is crazy. The odds are like millions to one. After all, the odds of getting an individual key are like ~1/50 (or at least in the 1/20-1/100 range). We have thousands of members.
This is actually terrible logic, beyond the fact that it's highly unlikely no one from a sample of 900 wouldn't have gotten a key none of what you said makes any sense.
bla bla bla
your comment doesnt make sense, because that is exactly what I said, in different words. the fact you didn't understand my logic doesnt mean it doesn't make sense...
besides, if the the fact no one on this forum got a key is enough for you, why isn't it also enough that 900 people who commented on facebook didn't get them too?
edit: I mean, you said it yourself lol, if the odds are like 1/50 then out of 900 people shouldnt like 18 of them get keys? herp derp...
This is actually terrible logic, beyond the fact that it's highly unlikely no one from a sample of 900 wouldn't have gotten a key none of what you said makes any sense.
bla bla bla
your comment doesnt make sense, because that is exactly what I said, in different words. the fact you didn't understand my logic doesnt mean it doesn't make sense...
Learn to read, I said the only part of your logic that makes sense is the part about 900 people not getting access being unlikely.
so, assuming less then 1 people for every 900 that applied got the keys, that would mean:
- assuming blizz is sending out 10k invites, 9 million people would have applied.
First, If one in every 900 people got keys it would be HIGHLY unlikely one of those 900 wouldn't have gotten a key. That's not how math works.
Also, why are you working backward? You would want to figure out how many invites they would WANT to send out, then look at the number of people they would need.
starcraft 2 sold 3million copies in its first month. do you really think 9million people applied for D3 beta?
chill. invites haven't been sent yet.
What does this have to do with ANYTHING.
If you're trying to imply that there would be 9 million buys in the first month for 9 million applicants, that's silly. There's probably many many times as many applicants as actual buyers.
Conclusion:
You fail logic forever.
Edit: Since you didn't get it the first time, let me spell it out. I 100% agree invites haven't been sent out. I 100% disagree with every part of your "logic" aside from the initial statement about the odds.
Blizzard announced that the first way of public invites would be about 10k?? If this is true then you are absolutely right, it's hard not to stress though. Gimme da beta!!!
At the same time, it makes sense that figures in the community such as Force, Day9, Husky, etc. etc. are granted beta access before the general public. They've only had activated accounts for mere hours so it looks like we have another day or two to kill.
Tonights viewing will include Day9tv's stream over at twitch.tv I'm really excited to see what approach he takes on d3 commentary.
you said it and I quote:
''Learn to read, I said the only part of your logic that makes sense is the part about 900 people not getting access being unlikely.''
that was my WHOLE logic. the starcraft 2 sales was a COMPARISON to gain perspective on more or less how many people could be opted-in.
All I meant was: if out of the 900 people who commented on facebook, 0 got beta keys, then that would mean for every 901 who opted in, 1 would get a key, at least.
I know this isn't a fact (and by a miracle all the people who commented happened to be just the people who didn't get keys) but like you said that is very unlikely, impossible actually.
and trust me, people would comment saying they got the keys right away.
I'd say the chance to get in is somewhere from 1 in 100 - 1 in 1000.
This is reasonable if you considered there will easily be a few million accounts that are optd-in.
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so, assuming less then 1 people for every 900 that applied got the keys, that would mean:
- assuming blizz is sending out 10k invites, 9 million people would have applied.
starcraft 2 sold 3million copies in its first month. do you really think 9million people applied for D3 beta?
chill. invites haven't been sent yet.
Cold, hard logic. I like it.
yes of course, the number of people who actually buy it is always less then the number of opt-ins. BUT the logic still stands... doesn't matter how much the game sells, I'm talking about the proportion of opt-ins and invites (:
First - Since there hasn't been waves of forum posts of people getting in, opt-in invites probably haven't actually started yet.
Second - It won't happen all at once, unless they have changed their system. Like I said, for sc2, it was a several hour process. So don't lose all hope if you see someone saying they got an opt-in invite if you don't have one yet. As long as it's still the day invites are going out you have a shot (although don't be too optimistic - the vast majority of us will NOT be getting in).
Thirdly - If you are truly desperate for a beta key and have lots of free time, download an addon like check4change for firefox/chrome, and always have Blizzards facebook/twitter pages open and refreshing. You may get lucky and get a key this way.
Finally - Beta invites happen in waves (again, assuming no change), so don't freak out if you don't get in in the first wave. You will still have a few more chances, and even if you don't ever get in, we are in the home stretch (relative to the game's development time) and release will be before you know it, and you are only missing out on the first 1/3 of act 1, or 1/12 of the game. Don't sweat it too much =D
Not sure what to say to this post.... posting on facebook that i got an invite would be the last thing i would do.
But the fact that no one on this forum has a key was enough to let us know already.
Anyone who believes keys could have possibly been sent out with no one on this forum getting one is crazy. The odds are like millions to one. After all, the odds of getting an individual key are like ~1/50 (or at least in the 1/20-1/100 range). We have thousands of members.
NOT gonna happen.
no no, like it was said in other posts, when the SC2 beta came out, there were pages after pages of people bragging about getting in the beta (:
your comment doesnt make sense, because that is exactly what I said, in different words. the fact you didn't understand my logic doesnt mean it doesn't make sense...
besides, if the the fact no one on this forum got a key is enough for you, why isn't it also enough that 900 people who commented on facebook didn't get them too?
edit: I mean, you said it yourself lol, if the odds are like 1/50 then out of 900 people shouldnt like 18 of them get keys? herp derp...
Learn to read, I said the only part of your logic that makes sense is the part about 900 people not getting access being unlikely.
First, If one in every 900 people got keys it would be HIGHLY unlikely one of those 900 wouldn't have gotten a key. That's not how math works.
Also, why are you working backward? You would want to figure out how many invites they would WANT to send out, then look at the number of people they would need.
What does this have to do with ANYTHING.
If you're trying to imply that there would be 9 million buys in the first month for 9 million applicants, that's silly. There's probably many many times as many applicants as actual buyers.
Conclusion:
You fail logic forever.
Edit: Since you didn't get it the first time, let me spell it out. I 100% agree invites haven't been sent out. I 100% disagree with every part of your "logic" aside from the initial statement about the odds.
At the same time, it makes sense that figures in the community such as Force, Day9, Husky, etc. etc. are granted beta access before the general public. They've only had activated accounts for mere hours so it looks like we have another day or two to kill.
Tonights viewing will include Day9tv's stream over at twitch.tv I'm really excited to see what approach he takes on d3 commentary.
http://huntersc.tv
He's making jokes already.
It only took him him like 2 minutes to figure out how the skills work. Starcraft players... zzzzz.
you said it and I quote:
''Learn to read, I said the only part of your logic that makes sense is the part about 900 people not getting access being unlikely.''
that was my WHOLE logic. the starcraft 2 sales was a COMPARISON to gain perspective on more or less how many people could be opted-in.
All I meant was: if out of the 900 people who commented on facebook, 0 got beta keys, then that would mean for every 901 who opted in, 1 would get a key, at least.
I know this isn't a fact (and by a miracle all the people who commented happened to be just the people who didn't get keys) but like you said that is very unlikely, impossible actually.
and trust me, people would comment saying they got the keys right away.
I actually like him, believe me, there's commentary a lot worse, and he is actually a really cool guy
This is reasonable if you considered there will easily be a few million accounts that are optd-in.